The WRF model performance for the simulation of heavy precipitating events over Ahmedabad during August 2006

The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4mm and 97.7mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.     

Numerical simulation of deep convective cloud seeding using liquid carbon dioxide

In this study, a one-dimensional transient cumulonimbus cloud is modeled to be seeded by liquid CO₂. The model includes microphysical and dynamical processes associated with glaciogenic seeding by homogenous ice nucleation and two thermal terms associated with seeding by ?90 ºC liquid CO₂. For this model, the study concentrates on five types of hydrometeors, namely, cloud droplet, cloud ice, snow, hail/graupel, and rain. Point and horizontal seeding methods are implemented to observe their implications for rainfall enhancement, amount of hail/graupel production, vertical cloud extension, and radar’s reflectivity. In addition, the seeding temperature effects on the rainfall and microphysical processes are investigated. The results of the study show that, the rainfall enhancement and rainfall intensity in the point seeding case are more than those in the horizontal seeding. Moreover, the study reveals that, there is a vertical cloud extension enhancement of 0.5 km for clouds with top height of 10.5 km. The most important sources of the rain water production are found to be the accretion of cloud water by rain (P _RACW) and by snow (P _SACW), and for the graupel production is dry growth of the graupel (P _GDRY). The results of this study are confirmed by the results of other investigators and are found to be comparable with the recorded data at rain gauge stations.     

Comparative analysis of two rainfall retrieval algorithms during extreme rainfall event: a case study on cloudburst, 2010 over Ladakh (Leh), Jammu and Kashmir

Natural Hazards - Intense rainfall events lead to floods and landslides in the Western Himalayas (WH). These rainfall amounts are considered comparatively moderate over the plains. These events,...     

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan using WRF-ARW model

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan has been carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This extraordinary rainfall event was localized over north-west Pakistan and recorded 274 mm of rainfall at Peshawar (34.02°N, 71.58°E), within a span of 24 h on that eventful day where monthly July normal rainfall is only 46.1 mm. The WRF model was run with the triple-nested domains of 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal resolution using Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme having YSU planetary boundary layer. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different simulated parameters. The model-derived rainfall was compared with Pakistan Meteorological Department–observed rainfall. The model suggested that this flood producing heavy rainfall event over north-west region of Pakistan might be the result of an interaction of active monsoon flow with upper air westerly trough (mid-latitude). The north-west Pakistan was the meeting point of the southeasterly flow from the Bay of Bengal following monsoon trough and southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea which helped to transport high magnitude of moisture. The vertical profile of the humidity showed that moisture content was reached up to upper troposphere during their mature stage (monsoon system usually did not extent up to that level) like a narrow vertical column where high amounts of rainfall were recorded. The other favourable conditions were strong vertical wind shear, low-level convergence and upper level divergence, and strong vorticity field which demarked the area of heavy rainfall. The WRF model might be able to simulate the flood producing rainfall event over north-west Pakistan and associated dynamical features reasonably well, though there were some spatial and temporal biases in the simulated rainfall pattern.     

Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India

In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two different synoptic systems merged by the strong interaction of moving PV columns resulted in the strengthening and further amplification of the system over the region in LDAS. This study highlights the importance of better representation of the land surface fields for improved prediction of localized anomalous weather event over India.     

Numerical simulation of lumpy soils using a hypoplastic model

The lumpy soil is a by product of the open-pit mining. A composite-lumpy material (in which, the lumps are randomly distributed in the reconstituted soil) is being created due to the degradation of the initial granular structure. In the present study, the compression and failure behaviour of an artificial lumpy material with randomly distributed inclusions are investigated using the finite element method. The computation results show that the stress ratio, defined as the ratio of the volume average stress between the lumps and the reconstituted soil within the inter-lump voids, is significantly affected by both the volume fraction and the preconsolidation pressure of the lumps under an isotropic compression path, while the volume fraction of the lumps plays a minor role under a triaxial compression path. Based on the simulation results, a homogenization law was proposed utilizing the secant stiffnesses.     

Numerical simulation of the Qulong Paleolandslide Dam event in the late pleistocene using the finite volume type shallow water model

Natural Hazards - The Qulong paleolandslide dam event lies in the Benzilan-Batang zone of the upper Jinsha River. The Jinsha River is one of the most extensive water resources in southwest China....     

Numerical simulation of evapotranspiration using a root water uptake model

The abstraction of ground water by vegetation and its influence on the behaviour of geotechnical structures such as pavements, foundations and slopes has been researched for many years. In recent years, the use of numerical methods in geotechnical engineering has rapidly increased. A major challenge for numerical modelers involves the specification of the surface flow boundary condition to model root water uptake by vegetation. The abstraction of ground water by roots is a complex process which involves the interaction of the atmosphere, vegetation and the ground. Accurate prediction of the pore water pressure changes induced by vegetation requires the development of algorithms which can mimic the process of transpiration by vegetation in the continuity equation of fluid flow. This paper presents a root water uptake model which has been coded into a finite element program that can perform coupled (mechanical and fluid flow behaviour) analyses. The input data includes rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and maximum root depth. The key features of the model are discussed first, followed by a presentation of results from a series of parametric studies.     

Numerical simulation of surface explosions over dry,cohesionless soil

Numerical modeling of the effects of explosions relies on suitable material models appropriate for large deformation problems. Available results of a wide range of static and dynamic tests on Nevada #120 sand, completed as part of an earlier project (VELACS), were utilized to calibrate a numerical model for sand, suitable for modeling surface explosions. A fully-coupled Euler–Lagrange Interaction was utilized to correctly model pressures created by the explosion simultaneously with the large deformations in the soil. The model was used to study two cases – the first with a 2-D axisymmetric case of crater formation; and the second with a 3-D case of surface explosion above an underground tunnel. The results of numerical analyses were found to closely match those from other analyses, field tests, and centrifuge model tests.     

The effect of a surface data assimilation technique and the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation on the simulation of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a surface data assimilation (SDA) technique, together with the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), on the simulation of a monsoon depression that formed over India during the field phase of the 1999 Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The SDA uses the analyzed surface data to continuously assimilate the surface layer temperature as well as the water vapor mixing ratio in the mesoscale model. The depression for the greater part of this study was offshore and since successful application of the SDA would require surface information, a method of estimating surface temperature and surface humidity using NOAA-TOVS satellites was used. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using a coupled mesoscale model. The first set, called CONTROL, uses the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis for the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the MM5 simulation. The second and the third sets implemented the SDA of temperature and moisture together with the traditional FDDA scheme available in the MM5 model. The second set of MM5 simulation implemented the SDA scheme only over the land areas, and the third set extended the SDA technique over land as well as sea. Both the second and third sets of the MM5 simulation used the NOAA-TOVS and QuikSCAT satellite and conventional upper air and surface meteorological data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the three sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another and with the analysis and the BOBMEX 1999 buoy, ship, and radiosonde observations. The predicted sea level pressure of both the model runs with assimilation resembles the analysis closely and also captures the large-scale structure of the monsoon depression well. The central sea level pressures of the depression for both the model runs with assimilation were 2–4 hPa lower than the CONTROL. The results of both the model runs with assimilation indicate a larger spatial area as well as increased rainfall amounts over the coastal regions after landfall compared with the CONTROL. The impact of FDDA and SDA, the latter over land, resulted in reduced errors of the following: 1.45 K in temperature, 0.39 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, and 14° in wind direction compared with the BOBMEX buoy observation, and 1.43 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, 43° in wind direction, and 0.75% in relative humidity compared with the CONTROL. The impact of SDA over land and sea compared with SDA over land only showed a further marginal reduction of errors: 0.23 K in air temperature (BOBMEX buoy) and 1.33 m s⁻¹ in wind speed simulations.     

Numerical simulation of the heavy rainfall caused by a convection band over Korea: a case study on the comparison of WRF and CReSS

Natural Hazards - This study investigates the capability of two numerical models, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS), to simulate the...     

Impact of variational assimilation technique on simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Pune,India

Prediction of heavy rainfall events due to severe convective storms in terms of their spatial and temporal scales is a challenging task for an operational forecaster. The present study is about a record-breaking heavy rainfall event observed in Pune (18°31′N, 73°55′E) on October 4, 2010. The day witnessed highest 24-h accumulated precipitation of 181.3 mm and caused flash floods in the city. The WRF model-based real-time weather system, operating daily at Centre for Development of Advanced Computing using PARAM Yuva supercomputer showed the signature of this convective event 4-h before, but failed to capture the actual peak rainfall and its location with reference to the city’s observational network. To investigate further, five numerical experiments were conducted to check the impact of assimilation of observations in the WRF model forecast. First, a control experiment was conducted with initialization using National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Global Forecast System 0.5° data, while surface observational data from NCEP Prepbufr system were assimilated in the second experiment (VARSFC). In the third experiment (VARAMV), NCEP Prepbufr atmospheric motion vectors were assimilated. Fourth experiment (VARPRO) was assimilated with conventional soundings data, and all the available NCEP Prepbufr observations were assimilated in the fifth experiment (VARALL). Model runs were compared with observations from automated weather stations (AWS), synoptic charts of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Comparison of 24-h accumulated rainfall with IMD AWS 24-h gridded data showed that the fifth experiment (VARALL) produced better picture of heavy rainfall, maximum up to 251 mm/day toward the southern side, 31 km away from Pune’s IMD observatory. It was noticed that the effect of soundings observations experiment (VARPRO) caused heavy precipitation of 210 mm toward the southern side 49 km away from Pune. The wind analysis at 850 and 200 hPa indicated that the surface and atmospheric motion vector observations (VARAMV) helped in shifting its peak rainfall toward Pune, IMD observatory by 18 km, though VARALL over-predicted rainfall by 60 mm than the observed.     

三峡库区泄滩滑坡渗流场与应力场耦合分析

随着大规模梯级水电工程的不断发展,库岸滑坡的稳定性及潜在的涌浪灾害将是影响水电工程(群)全生命周期安全运行的关键因素。本文分别从库岸边坡稳定性及滑坡涌浪研究两个方面,对目前国内外的相关研究成果进行了系统总结和分析。在库岸边坡稳定性研究方面,越来越多的研究集中于降雨、库水位变动等水动力环境下的库岸边坡的水-岩耦合作用及稳定性演化的分析方法方面。通过对滑坡涌浪的物理模型试验法、解析法及数值模拟法3大类方法的优缺点分析,随着数值计算技术的飞速发展其在滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析方面体现出其强大的生命力。库岸滑坡从渐进破坏→启动→高速运动、涌浪→堆积、涌浪传播与爬坡等构成了滑坡涌浪灾害链的不同阶段,也是一个连续的灾害过程,而不同阶段灾害特点又有很大的差异。然而,目前通常将库岸滑坡稳定性分析和涌浪分析分割开来,从而不能很好地反应这一灾害链过程。基于高性能数值计算技术,从全过程的物理力学机制出发构建灾害链的模拟和分析方法,将是目前的发展趋势,也是从解决库岸滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析的关键。     

Numerical simulation of round robin numerical test on tunnels using a simplified kinematic hardening model

The paper summarizes the numerical simulation of the round robin numerical test on tunnels performed in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. The main issues of the numerical simulation are presented along with representative comparisons of the computed response with the recorded data. For the simulation, the finite element method is implemented, using ABAQUS. The analyses are performed on prototype-scale models under plane strain conditions. While the tunnel behavior is assumed to be elastic, the soil nonlinear behavior during shaking is modeled using a simplified kinematic hardening model combined with a von Mises failure criterion and an associated plastic flow rule. The model parameters are adequately calibrated using available laboratory test results for the specific fraction of sand. The soil–tunnel interface is also accounted and simulated adequately. The effect of the interface friction on the tunnel response is investigated for one test case, as this parameter seems to affect significantly the tunnel lining axial forces. Finally, the internal forces of the tunnel lining are also evaluated with available closed-form solutions, usually used in the preliminary stages of design and compared with the experimental data and the numerical predictions. The numerical analyses can generally reproduce reasonably well the recorded response. Any differences between the experimental data and the numerical results are mainly attributed to the simplification of the used model and to differences between the assumed and the actual mechanical properties of the soil and the tunnel during the test.     

The Dwarskersbos,South Africa local tsunami of August 27, 1969: field survey and simulation as a meteorological event

We investigate the hitherto unexplained wave which inundated the village of Dwarskersbos, South Africa, in the early hours of August 27, 1969, in the absence of any seismic disturbance or major meteorological storm. A field survey, based on the interview of nine elderly witnesses still residing in the community, documented maximum run-up of 2.9 m, concentrated on an extremely short segment of coastline, less than 2 km in length. These characteristics are incompatible with generation by a seismic source (which, at any rate, should have been felt by the population). A landslide source, located at the only canyon featuring a steep enough ocean floor, is also ruled out since a numerical simulation fails to reproduce the concentration of the wave at Dwarskersbos. By contrast, the wave can be explained as a “meteo-tsunami” resulting from resonance between a meteorological squall propagating at 18 m/s in the azimuth \(\hbox {N101}^{\circ }\hbox {E}\) and a gravity wave propagating in the shallow waters off the eastern shore of St. Helena Bay. This is confirmed by numerical simulation under the formalism of Proudman (Dynamical oceanography. Methuen, London, 1953), which provides a satisfactory model of the distribution of run-up along the beach.     

Impact of INSAT-3D radiance data assimilation using WRF 3DVAR on simulation of Indian summer monsoon and high-resolution rainfall forecast over hilly terrain

Natural Hazards - This study describes the impact of assimilation of INSAT-3D radiances data from both imager and sounder for Indian summer monsoon simulation and rainfall forecast over a hilly...     

Numerical simulation on mining-induced water inrushes related to geologic structures using a damage-based hydromechanical model

A large number of statistics indicate that water inrush has a direct relationship with geological structures such as fault and karst collapse columns. Understanding the mechanism of water inrushes controlled by geologic structures is of vital importance for adopting effective measures to prevent their occurrence. The work begins with formulization of a damage-based hydromechanical model based on elastic damage theory. Next, the model is numerically implemented with finite element method by employing a finite element package called COMSOL Multiphysics, and is also validated against some existing experimental observations. Finally, the model is used to simulate the mining-induced groundwater inrushes when the effect of faults and karst collapse columns is considered in the numerical simulation, and some suggestive conclusions for preventing water inrushes and optimizing underground mining operations are drawn.     

Numerical simulation of a tunnel surrounded by sand under earthquake using a hypoplastic model

A numerical model of a centrifuge experiment on tunnel located in sand is being presented. The experiment was carried out under seismic loading using a dynamic actuator. The responses of the tunnel and of the sand were measured. The numerical model is based on a hypoplastic constitutive model with intergranular strains implemented in the FE-code TOCHNOG. The calculated accelerations in the sand match the measured results, while the surface settlement and the bending moments in the tunnel lining are only qualitatively reproduced by the numerical model.     

基于连续介质模型的滑坡启动机理数值模拟试验

滑坡启动机理研究是滑坡防治的前提条件。应用三维连续介质动态数值模型方法,采用摩擦模型、Voellmy模型2种流变模型,对滑坡启动过程进行分析求解,开展滑坡启动机理数值模拟研究。结果表明,不论是限制坡面(渠道型)还是无限制坡面,在2种流变模型和侵蚀率下,随着坡度逐渐增加,地形所提供给滑坡体的能量进一步增大,物质运动距离进一步增加,其相应的平均速度、最大速度(前端速度)和总动能也会进一步加大,经历了从缓慢蠕变至快速增加的过程。根据不同坡度下滑坡的启动、运动规律、堆积过程及各坡度下动力参数延程变化规律,可以将滑坡的启动坡度设定为25°~30°。该滑坡启动坡度的设定可为地质灾害防治措施和监测预警提供技术参考。