Short-term variations of cosmic-ray intensity and flare related data in 1981–1983

A statistical analysis of the cosmic-ray intensity (CR) daily means, registered at three Neutron Monitor stations with different cut-off rigidities (Deep River, Climax and Alma-Ata), as well as, of the solar hard X-ray flares fluence recorded by Venera-13, -14 space-probes, has been performed for the time interval 1981–1983. Various methods of time series spectrum analysis, such as Fast Fourier Analysis (FFT) and Maximum Entropy (MESA), accompanied by appropriate statistical tests, have been employed to detect periodicities, while the method of Successive Approximations (SA) is used independently in order to define the amplitude and the phase of each fluctuation. New short-term periodicities of 100, 70, 50 and 32 days, in addition to the known ones of 152, 27 and 14 days, appeared in cosmic ray data. During this particular time interval, similar spectral behaviour has been reported in the solar hard X-ray flares data. The influence of the solar hard X-ray flares variability in the energy range 50–500 keV, expressed by their fluence values, upon the cosmic-ray modulation, is discussed.     

Simulation of long-term cosmic-ray intensity variation

Selecting the most appropriate source functions among the various solar, interplanetary and terrestrial activity indices we have attempted to reproduce to a certain degree the long-term modulation of galactic cosmic-rays. For this study monthly cosmic-ray data from nine world-wide neutron monitor stations for the period 1975–1985 have been analysed. The empirical formula which has been used to compute the long-term cosmic-ray variations follows the observations fairly well.It is noteworthy that the residuals in the cosmic-ray intensity between that observed and that calculated by this empirical formula exhibits a still remaining short-term variation in all stations of 2.7 and 3.7 months. Possible interpretations of these observed periodicities related to galactic origin are given.     

Influence of Magnetic Clouds on Variations of Cosmic Rays in November 2004

We investigate the effects of two magnetic clouds on hourly cosmic-ray intensity profiles in the Forbush decrease events in November 2004 observed by 47 ground-based neutron-monitor stations. By using a wavelet decomposition, the start time of the main phase in a Forbush decrease event can be defined, and then clearer definitions of initial phase, main phase, and recovery phase are proposed. Our analyses suggest that the main phase of this Fd event precedes the arrival time of the first magnetic cloud by about three hours, and the Fds observed at the majority (39/47) of the stations were found to originate from the sheath region as indicated by large fluctuations in magnetic field vectors at 19:00 UT on 7 November 2004, regardless of the station location. In addition, about 45% of the onset times of the recovery phase in the Forbush decreases took place at 04:00 UT on 10 November, independent of the station position. The results presented here support the hypothesis that the sheath region between the shock and the magnetic cloud, especially the enhanced turbulent magnetic field, results in the scattering of cosmic-ray particles, and causes the following Forbush decreases. Analysis of variation profiles from different neutron monitors reveals the global simultaneity of this Forbush decrease event. Moreover, we infer that the interplanetary disturbance was asymmetric when it reached the Earth, inclined to the southern hemisphere. These results provide several observational constraints for more detailed simulations of the Forbush decrease events with time-dependent cosmic-ray modulation models.     

Unusual anisotropic wave trains in cosmic rays

Several workers have attempted to find out the possible origin of the “high amplitude wave trains” of enhanced diurnal variation of cosmic rays and to develop a suitable realistic theoretical model that can explain the different harmonics in individual days. The various observed harmonics of the cosmic-ray variation may be understood on a unified basis if the free-space cosmic-ray anisotropy is non-sinusoidal in form. The major objective of this paper is to study the first three harmonics of high-amplitude wave trains of cosmic-ray intensity over the period 1981–1994 for Deep River neutron monitoring station. The main characteristic of these events is that the high-amplitude wave trains show a maximum intensity of diurnal component in a direction earlier than 18:00 h/co-rotational direction. It is noteworthy that the amplitude significantly enhanced and the phase remains in the co-rotational direction during the years close to solar-activity maximum for first harmonic. Significant deviations have been observed in the semi-diurnal amplitude after the onset of solar-activity maximum. This leads us to conclude that the amplitude as well as direction of the first harmonic and the amplitude of second harmonic are correlated with solar-activity cycle during these HAEs. The amplitude and phase of all the three harmonics (diurnal/semi-diurnal/tri-diurnal) are not found to depend on the polarity of Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field for long-term variation. The occurrence of high-amplitude events is dominant for the positive polarity of Bz component of IMF. The occurrence of HAEs is dominant during the period of average solar-wind velocity, but their occurrence during HSSWSs cannot be denied. The possibility of occurrence of these events is more during the periods of co-rotating streams. The occurrence of HAE is dominant when Dst-index remains negative and this point is not reported earlier in the litterature. All the high amplitude events occurred, when geomagnetic activity index, Ap, remains ⩽20.     

A search of cosmic-ray variations generated by pulsations of the heliosphere

Application of new statistical techniques to time series allow the investigation of cosmic-ray intensity variation in the periodicity range of 1 to 10 years. We can put significant levels to the existence of these oscillations and define their character as quasi-periodic and/or recurrent. Correlations between cosmic-ray intensity variations and solar activity changes during 1944–1979 are investigated. The two-year variation in cosmic rays is observed to be variable both in amplitude and phase, and not correlated with sunspot cyclic variations; but seems to depend on the magnetic polarity of the interplanetary medium. No significant evidence for the existence of longer period variations is obtained.     

Power-spectrum analysis of local geomagnetic disturbances and their relationship to cosmic-ray and aurora intensity

Power-spectrum analyses have been carried out on two data sets of the geomagnetic K-index from the Athens and Sofia magnetic Observatories. For the period between 1956–1984, periodicities of about 2.8 and 6 months have been obtained. Similar results were found by the auto-correlation technique. Both periods are significant to 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively. In our attempt to explain transient geomagnetic disturbances caused by other parameters, the K-index was correlated to cosmic-ray and aurora intensity. The best correlation coefficient between K-variations and cosmic-ray data from Athens Neutron-Monitor Station was 0.58 and between K-index and Auroral, activity index was 0.47.An attempt to interpret these periodicities and relationships has been made.     

Rapid Cosmic Ray Fluctuations: Evidence for Cyclic Behaviour

We study rapid cosmic-ray fluctuations using 5-min resolution data from eight neutron monitors with different cutoff rigidities as well as from the ACE satellite. We define a proxy index of rapid cosmic-ray fluctuations as the mean power of the cosmic-ray power spectrum in the frequency range 10⁻⁴ −1.67 × 10⁻³ Hz (10 min to about 3 h). A dominant 11-year periodicity in the index is found in all neutron monitors. We also report on intermittent, short-term periodicities in the power of rapid cosmic-ray fluctuations. A strong mid-term periodicity of about 1.6 – 1.8 years, possibly related to a recently found similar periodicity in IMF, appears in CR fluctuation power since the 1980s. Another strong periodicity is found at 1 year, which is likely related to the relative position of the Earth in the heliosphere. These results also provide new challenge to test the cosmic-ray modulation theory.     

Long-term modulation of the Galactic cosmic-ray fluctuation spectrum

We study the temporal behavior of the power spectra for Galactic cosmic-ray fluctuations during the last two solar cycles. We use the 5-min data for 1980–2002 corrected for the barometric effect from two widely separated high-latitude cosmic-ray stations, Tixie Bay and Oulu. The cosmicray fluctuation spectrum is shown to be subjected to a regular long-term modulation with a period of about 11 years in phase with the solar cycle, in accordance with the variations in the inertial part of the turbulence spectrum for the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on independent measurements, we confirm the previously detected cosmic-ray fluctuation power enhancement at the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle and its subsequent decrease at minimum solar activity using new, more extensive data sets. We reach the conclusion about the establishment of a new cosmic-ray modulation phenomenon that has not been described previously in scientific literature.     

On the Role of Large-Scale Solar Photospheric Motions in the Cosmic-Ray 1.68-YR Intensity Variation

Analysis of cosmic-ray intensity time evolution has led to the identification of intensity variations with several periodicities, most of them correlated with one or another phenomenon of the Sun. Recently Valdés-Galicia, Pérez-Enriquez, and Otaola (1996) reported on a newly-found 1.68-yr variation, which seems to be correlated with periodicities in X-ray long-duration events and low-latitude coronal hole area variations. As those phenomena are related with magnetic flux emergence and transport, in this paper we investigate the possible relationship of the referred cosmic-ray variation with characteristic times of different tracers of meridional circulation. Our results indicate that several of the calculated times might be related to the 1.68-yr cosmic-ray variation. A physical mechanism through which this connection may operate is discussed.     

Study of Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations Associated with Anomalous,Long-Duration High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2003

High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December) to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together, as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS.     

Power spectrum of geomagneticK p-index detected at Misallat magnetic station

TheK _p-indices measured at Misallat station [ø = 29°45 N; = 30°54 E] during the period 1958–1989, have been compared with the data of two geomagnetic stations; one of them has similar longitude as Misallat and the second has almost similar latitude. The spectra of daily and hourly data of the three stations are compared together to define the latitude and longitude-effects on the detected periodicities. Daily periodicities ofK _p-index activities at the values 32.7, 21.2, 12.9, 11.6 and 9.2 days have been obtained to be common in the spectra of the three stations. The existence of 5-days periodicity in these stations has also been detected.     

Application of diffusion — Convection model to diurnal anisotropy data

The diurnal anisotropy of cosmic-ray intensity observed over the period 1970–1977 has been analysed using neutron-monitor data of the Athens and Deep River stations. Our results indicate that the time of the maximum of diurnal variation shows a remarkable systematic shift towards earlier hours than normally beginning in 1971. This phase shift continued until 1976, the solar activity minimum, except for a sudden shift to a later hour for one year, in 1974, the secondary maximum of solar activity.This behavior of the diurnal time of maximum has been shown to be consistent with the convective- diffusive mechanism which relates the solar diurnal anisotropy of cosmic-rays to the dynamics of the solar wind and of the interplanetary magnetic field. Once again we have confirmed the field-aligned direction of the diffusive vector independently of the interplanetary magnetic field polarity. It is also noteworthy that the diurnal phase may follow in time the variations of the size of the polar coronal holes. All these are in agreement with the drift motions of cosmic-ray particles in the interplanetarty magnetic field during this time period.     

Study of the Diurnal Variation of Cosmic Rays during Different Phases of Solar Activity

The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of ground-based super neutron monitor stations, situated in different latitudes, have been employed to study the characteristics of the long-term variation of cosmic-ray diurnal anisotropy for a long (44-year) period (1965?–?2008). Some of these super neutron monitors are situated in low latitudes with high cutoff rigidity. Annual averages of the diurnal amplitudes and phases have been obtained for each station. It is found that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar activity cycle (11 years), whereas the diurnal phase varies with a period of 22 years (one solar magnetic cycle). The average diurnal amplitudes and phases have also been calculated by grouping the days on the basis of ascending and descending periods of each solar cycle (Cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23). Systematic and significant differences are observed in the characteristics of the diurnal variation between the descending periods of the odd and even solar cycles. The overall vector averages of the descending periods of the even solar cycles (20 and 22) show significantly smaller diurnal amplitudes compared to the vector averages of the descending periods of the odd solar cycles (21 and 23). In contrast, we find a large diurnal phase shift to earlier hours only during the descending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22), as compared to almost no shift in the diurnal phase during the descending periods of odd solar cycles. Further, the overall vector average diurnal amplitudes of the ascending period of odd and even solar cycles remain invariant from one ascending period to the other, or even between the even and odd solar cycles. However, we do find a significant diurnal phase shift to earlier hours during the ascending periods of odd solar cycles (21 and 23) in comparison to the diurnal phase in the ascending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22).     

On the magnitude and direction of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays

The results of measuring the diurnal cosmic-ray intensity variations in the energy range 1–100 TeV are discussed. Whereas the phase of the first harmonic of the sidereal daily wave directly determines the phase (right ascension) of the cosmic-ray anisotropy vector, the amplitude and declination of the true anisotropy cannot be reconstructed directly from the amplitude of the first harmonic. However, they can be determined by invoking data on the zero harmonic. The results of some recent experiments purporting to measure the cosmic-ray anisotropy with a particularly high accuracy are shown to be interpreted erroneously.     

Periodicities in Irradiance and in other Solar Activity Indices During Cycle 23

Magnetic fields give rise to distinctive features in different solar atmospheric regimes. To study this, time variations of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot area, each index arising from different physical conditions, were compared with the solar composite irradiance throughout cycle 23. Rieger-type periodicities in these time series were calculated using Fourier and wavelet transforms (WTs). The peaks of the wavelet power of these periodicities appeared between the years 1999 and 2002. We found that the solar irradiance oscillations are less significant than those in the other indices during this cycle. The irradiance shows non-periodic fluctuations during this time interval. The peaks of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot total area were seen around 2000.4, 1999.9 and 2001.0, respectively. These periodicities appeared intermittently and were not simultaneous in different solar activity indices during the three years of the maximum phase of solar cycle 23.     

Short time periodicities of the atmospheric activity of Jupiter

Short time periodicities of 3, 6, and 12 months have been found by analysis of the coefficient of atmospheric activity of Jupiter for the time period 1963–1967.These periodicities have been attributed to seasonal variations of the Jovian atmosphere, and could be related to similar periodicities observed in solar flares and in the high velocity solar wind streamers.     

Tridiurnal variations in cosmic-ray intensity

The tridiurnal wave in cosmic-ray intensity expected from a free space anisotropy is theoretically calculated for different cosmic-ray stations which are characterized by different shapes of asymptotic cones of acceptance. The amplitude A and the time of maximum Tmax are given for latitude dependence of the form cosⁿ λ and rigidity dependence of the form $\text{R}{}^{\mathrm{\beta }}\text{exp (?(R?}\text{1}\text{R}{}_0\text{))}$, where λ and R are the latitude and rigidity respectively and n, β, R₀ are constants. The values of A and Tmax, are calculated for different values of n, β and R₀ for each station. The dependence of A and Tmax on the anisotropy parameters is studied for the proper selection of cosmic-ray stations whose data may be used in determining these parameters.Available experimental data were used to find the observed amplitudes of the tridiurnal variations at five stations using power spectrum analysis with hanning applied on the averaged trains. Minimum variance analysis of the theoretical and experimental amplitudes showed that β has a value between 1 and 2, R₀ greater than 100 GV and n smaller than 3.     

Unusual Cosmic Ray Variations During the Forbush Decreases of June 2015

Although the current Solar Cycle 24 is characterized by low solar activity, an intense geomagnetic storm (G4) was recorded in June 2015. It was a complex phenomenon that began on 22 June 2015 as the result of intense solar activity, accompanied by several flares and coronal mass ejections that interacted with the Earth’s magnetic field. A Forbush decrease was also recorded at the neutron monitors of the worldwide network, with an amplitude of 8.4%, and in its recovery phase, a second Forbush decrease followed, with an amplitude of 4.0% for cosmic rays of 10 GV obtained with the global survey method. The Dst index reached a minimum value of ?204 nT that was detected on 23 June 2015 at 05:00?–?06:00 UT, while the Kp index reached the value eight. For our analysis, we used hourly cosmic-ray intensity data recorded by polar, mid-, and high-latitude neutron monitor stations obtained from the High Resolution Neutron Monitor Database. The cosmic-ray anisotropy variation at the ecliptic plane was also estimated and was found to be highly complex. We study and discuss the unusual and complex cosmic-ray and geomagnetic response to these solar events.     

Cosmic-ray anisotropy in interplanetary space

The kinetic equation describing cosmic-ray propagation in interplanetary space has been used to construct a consistent theory of cosmic-ray anisotropy including the second spherical harmonic of particle angular distribution. The amplitude and phase of semi-diurnal cosmic-ray variation have been calculated. Expressions describing the relationships of the semi-diurnal variation parameters to helio-latitude distribution of cosmic rays have been derived. The results obtained are compared with observational data.     

Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years

Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being <?10^?5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈?172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈?112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤?five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.