Central antarctic climate response to the solar cycle

Antarctic “Vostok” station works most closely to the center of the ice cap among permanent year-around stations. Climate conditions are exclusively stable: low precipitation level, cloudiness and wind velocity. These conditions can be considered as an ideal model laboratory to study the surface temperature response on solar irradiance variability during 11-year cycle of solar activity. Here we solve an inverse heat conductivity problem: calculate the boundary heat flux density (HFD) from known evolution of temperature. Using meteorological temperature record during (1958–2011) we calculated the HFD variation about 0.2–0.3 W/m² in phase with solar activity cycle. This HFD variation is derived from 0.5 to 1 °C temperature variation and shows relatively high climate sensitivity per 0.1 % of solar radiation change. This effect can be due to the polar amplification phenomenon, which predicts a similar response 0.3–0.8 °C/0.1 % (Gal-Chen and Schneider in Tellus 28:108–121, 1975). The solar forcing (TSI) is disturbed by volcanic forcing (VF), so that their linear combination TSI + 0.5VF empirically provides higher correlation with HFD (r = 0.63 ± 0.22) than TSI (r = 0.50 ± 0.24) and VF (r = 0.41 ± 0.25) separately. TSI shows higher wavelet coherence and phase agreement with HFD than VF.     

Effect of surface albedo, water vapour, and atmospheric aerosols on the cloud-free shortwave radiative budget in the Arctic

This study is based on ground-based measurements of downward surface shortwave irradiance (SW), columnar water vapour (wv), and aerosol optical depth (τ) obtained at Thule Air Base (Greenland) in 2007–2010, together with MODIS observations of the surface shortwave albedo (A). Radiative transfer model calculations are used in combination with measurements to separate the radiative effect of A (ΔSW_A), wv (ΔSW_wv), and aerosols (ΔSW_τ) in modulating SW in cloud-free conditions. The shortwave radiation at the surface is mainly affected by water vapour absorption, which produces a reduction of SW as low as ?100 Wm^?2 (?18%). The seasonal change of A produces an increase of SW by up to +25 Wm^?2 (+4.5%). The annual mean radiative effect is estimated to be ?(21–22) Wm^?2 for wv, and +(2–3) Wm^?2 for A. An increase by +0.065 cm in the annual mean wv, to which corresponds an absolute increase in ΔSW_wv by 0.93 Wm^?2 (4.3%), has been observed to occur between 2007 and 2010. In the same period, the annual mean A has decreased by ?0.027, with a corresponding decrease in ΔSW_A by 0.41 Wm^?2 (?14.9%). Atmospheric aerosols produce a reduction of SW as low as ?32 Wm^?2 (?6.7%). The instantaneous aerosol radiative forcing (RF_τ) reaches values of ?28 Wm^?2 and shows a strong dependency on surface albedo. The derived radiative forcing efficiency (FE_τ) for solar zenith angles between 55° and 70° is estimated to be (?120.6 ± 4.3) for 0.1 < A < 0.2, and (?41.2 ± 1.6) Wm^?2 for 0.5 < A < 0.6.     

Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India

The main goal of this paper is to estimate a set of optimal seasonal, daily, and hourly values of atmospheric turbidity and surface radiative parameters Ångström’s turbidity coefficient (β), Ångström’s wavelength exponent (α), aerosol single scattering albedo (ω_o), forward scatterance (F_c) and average surface albedo (ρ_g), using the Brute Force multidimensional minimization method to minimize the difference between measured and simulated solar irradiance components, expressed as cost functions. In order to simulate the components of short-wave solar irradiance (direct, diffuse and global) for clear sky conditions, incidents on a horizontal surface in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ), Brazil (22° 51′ 27″ S, 43° 13′ 58″ W), we use two parameterized broadband solar irradiance models, called CPCR2 and Iqbal C, based on synoptic information. The meteorological variables such as precipitable water (u_w) and ozone concentration (u_o) required by the broadband solar models were obtained from moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on Terra and Aqua NASA platforms. For the implementation and validation processes, we use global and diffuse solar irradiance data measured by the radiometric platform of LabMiM, located in the north area of the MARJ. The data were measured between the years 2010 and 2012 at 1-min intervals. The performance of solar irradiance models using optimal parameters was evaluated with several quantitative statistical indicators and a subset of measured solar irradiance data. Some daily results for Ångström’s wavelength exponent α were compared with Ångström’s parameter (440–870 nm) values obtained by aerosol robotic network (AERONET) for 11 days, showing an acceptable level of agreement. Results for Ångström’s turbidity coefficient β, associated with the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, show a seasonal pattern according with increased precipitation during summer months (December–February) in the MARJ.     

Indirect determination of broadband turbidity coefficients over Egypt

Long-term data from diffuse and global irradiances were used to calculate direct beam irradiance which was used to determine three atmospheric turbidity coefficients (Linke T _L , Ångström β and Unsworth–Monteith δ _a ) at seven sites in Egypt in the period from 1981 to 2000. Seven study sites (Barrani, Matruh, Arish, Cairo, Asyut, Aswan and Kharga) have been divided into three categories: Mediterranean climate (MC), desert Nile climate (DNC) and urban climate (UC, Cairo). The indirect method (i.e., global irradiance minus diffuse irradiance) used here allows to estimate the turbidity coefficients with an RMSE% ≤20 % (for β, δ _a and T _L ) and ~30 % (for β) if compared with those estimated by direct beam irradiance and sunphotometeric data, respectively. Monthly averages of T _L , β and δ _a show seasonal variations with mainly maxima in spring at all stations, due to Khamsin depressions coming from Sahara. Secondary maxima is observed in summer and autumn at DNC and MC (Barrani and Arish) stations in summer due to dust haze which prevails during that season and at UC (Cairo) in autumn, due to the northern extension of the Sudan monsoon trough, which is accompanied by small-scale depressions with dust particles. The mean annual values of β, δ _a , and T _L (0.216, 0.314, and 4.6, respectively) are larger in Cairo than at MC stations (0.146, 0.216, and 3.8, respectively) and DNC stations (0.153, 0.227, and 3.8, respectively). Both El-Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions were examined for all records data at MC, UC and DNC stations. The overburden caused by Mt. Pinatubo’s eruption was larger than El-Chichon’s eruption and overburden for β, and T _L at DNC stations (0.06, and 0.58 units, respectively) was more pronounced than that at MC (0.02, and 0.26, respectively) and UC (0.05 and 0.52 units, respectively) stations. The annual variations in wind speed and turbidity parameters show high values for both low and high wind speed at all stations. The wind directions have a clear effect on atmospheric turbidity, and consequently, largest turbidities occur when the wind carries aerosols from the main particle sources, such as industrial particle sources around Cairo or to some extent from the Sahara surrounding all study stations.     

What happened to surface temperature with sunspot activity in the past 130 years?

Based on composite analysis using categories of solar inactivity and activity, the responses of surface temperature to different categorized solar activity and a plausible mechanism have been discussed. The results show the increasing solar sunspot activity during solar cycles 13 to 24 (1880–2010) and it seemed to make a positive contribution to rising global temperature. However, the sunspots were fewer in number, if we focused on the most recent 60 years (1950–2010), and the decreasing solar activity did not contribute to a cooler Earth. This result indicates that the connection between sunspots and the Earth’s climate is sensitive to the study period. An extreme analysis was performed in an attempt to gain a better understanding of solar impacts. The extreme top 10 composite analysis demonstrated that the surface temperature response to solar activity is spatially different and is highly sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The most sensitive areas in the Pacific sector revealed a significant difference between including and excluding ENSO years. During the solar inactive years, the tropical eastern Pacific was observed as a weak El Niño-like (strong La Niña-like) pattern in the composite including (excluding) ENSO events. Another interesting feature is the strong similarity in the composites which include or exclude ENSO events during the sunspot active years, but it differs from the La Niña-like pattern observed in previous studies. The bottom-up mechanism associated with the response of the surface dynamical circulation and the heat balance when compared to the total solar irradiance forcing partially explains the connection.     

Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T _ann), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a δ¹⁸O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjön, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T _ann, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000–8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T _ann values about 2.5°C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial-scale climate dynamics.     

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past,present, and future

The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.     

Assessment of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> chemical compositions in Delhi: primary vs secondary emissions and contribution to light extinction coefficient and visibility degradation

Haze-fog conditions over northern India are associated with visibility degradation and severe attenuation of solar radiation by airborne particles with various chemical compositions. PM_2.5 samples have been collected in Delhi, India from December 2011 to November 2012 and analyzed for carbonaceous and inorganic species. PM₁₀ measurements were made simultaneously such that PM_10–2.5 could be estimated by difference. This study analyzes the temporal variation of PM_2.5 and carbonaceous particles (CP), focusing on identification of the primary and secondary aerosol emissions, estimations of light extinction coefficient (b_ext) and the contributions by the major PM_2.5 chemical components. The annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and PM_10–2.5 were found to be 153.6 ± 59.8, 33.5 ± 15.9, 6.9 ± 3.9 and 91.1 ± 99.9 μg m^?3, respectively. Total CP, secondary organic aerosols and major anions (e.g., SO₄ ^2? and NO₃ ^?) maximize during the post-monsoon and winter due to fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. PM_10–2.5 is more abundant during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. The OC/EC varies from 2.45 to 9.26 (mean of 5.18 ± 1.47), indicating the influence of multiple combustion sources. The b_ext exhibits highest values (910 ± 280 and 1221 ± 371 Mm^?1) in post-monsoon and winter and lowest in monsoon (363 ± 110 and 457 ± 133 Mm^?1) as estimated via the original and revised IMPROVE algorithms, respectively. Organic matter (OM =1.6 × OC) accounts for ~39 % and ~48 % of the b_ext, followed by (NH₄)₂SO₄ (~21 % and ~24 %) and EC (~13 % and ~10 %), according to the original and revised algorithms, respectively. The b_ext estimates via the two IMPROVE versions are highly correlated (R² = 0.95, root mean square error = 38 % and mean bias error = 28 %) and are strongly related to visibility impairment (r = ?0.72), mostly associated with anthropogenic rather than natural PM contributions. Therefore, reduction of CP and precursor gas emissions represents an urgent opportunity for air quality improvement across Delhi.     

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO₂ using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO₂, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO₂-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (~10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (285–570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO₂ and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO₂-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO₂-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.     

The assessment of aerosol optical properties over Mohal in the northwestern Indian Himalayas using satellite and ground-based measurements and an influence of aerosol transport on aerosol radiative forcing

The present study deals with the aerosol optical properties which are assessed during the period 2007 to 2009 over Mohal (31.9oN, 77.12oE) in the northwestern Indian Himalaya, using ground-based measurements and multi-satellite data. The daily average value of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500?nm, ?ngstr?m exponent and turbidity coefficient are 0.24?±?0.08, 1.02?±?0.34 and 0.13?±?0.05, respectively. The comparative study of satellite and ground-based measurements reveals that the percentage retrieval for daily AOD at 550?nm over Mohal within the expected accuracy (???? _p?? ?=?±0.05?±?0.15?? _p?? ) is around 87%, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.76. The present study suggests that the retrieval of AOD through satellite data is able to characterise the distribution of AOD over Mohal. However, further efforts are needed in order to eliminate systematic errors in the existing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) algorithm. The transport of desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol during high aerosol loading days caused a significant reduction in surface-reaching solar radiation by 149 and 117%, respectively. This large reduction in surface-reaching solar radiation increased the atmospheric heating rate by 0.93 and 0.72?K?day^?1, respectively. This study indicates significant climatic implications due to the transport of aerosols in the northwestern Indian Himalaya.     

Greening the terrestrial biosphere: simulated feedbacks on atmospheric heat and energy circulation

Much research focuses on how the terrestrial biosphere influences climate through changes in surface albedo (reflectivity), stomatal conductance and leaf area index (LAI). By using a fully-coupled GCM (HadCM3LC), our research objective was to induce an increase in the growth of global vegetation to isolate the effect of increased LAI on atmospheric exchange of heat and moisture. Our Control simulation had a mean global net primary production (NPP) of 56.3 GtCyr^?1 which is half that of our scenario value of 115.1 GtCyr^?1. LAI and latent energy (Q _E) were simulated to increase globally, except in areas around Antarctica. A highly productive biosphere promotes mid-latitude mean surface cooling of ~2.5°C in the summer, and surface warming of ~1.0°C in the winter. The former response is primarily the result of reduced Bowen ratio (i.e. increased production of Q _E) in combination with small increases in planetary albedo. Response in winter temperature is likely due to decreased planetary albedo that in turn permits a greater amount of solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. Energy balance calculations show that between 75° and 90°N latitude, an additional 2.4 Wm^?2 of surface heat must be advected into the region to maintain energy balance, and ultimately causes high northern latitudes to warm by up to 3°C. We postulate that large increases in Q _E promoted by increased growth of terrestrial vegetation could contribute to greater surface-to-atmosphere exchange and convection. Our high growth simulation shows that convective rainfall substantially increases across three latitudinal bands relative to Control; in the tropics, across the monsoonal belt, and in mid-latitude temperate regions. Our theoretical research has implications for applied climatology; in the modeling of past “hot-house” climates, in explaining the greening of northern latitudes in modern-day times, and for predicting future changes in surface temperature with continued increases in atmospheric CO₂.     

Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The mechanisms by which natural forcing factors alone could drive simulated multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are assessed in an ensemble of climate model simulations. It is shown for a new state-of-the-art general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, that the most important of these natural forcings, in terms of the multidecadal response of the AMOC, is solar rather than volcanic forcing. AMOC strengthening occurs through a densification of the North Atlantic, driven by anomalous surface freshwater fluxes due to increased evaporation. These are related to persistent North Atlantic atmospheric circulation anomalies, driven by forced changes in the stratosphere, associated with anomalously weak solar irradiance during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Within a period of approximately 100 years the 11-year smoothed ensemble mean AMOC strengthens by 1.5 Sv and subsequently weakens by 1.9 Sv, representing respectively approximately 3 and 4 standard deviations of the 11-year smoothed control simulation. The solar-induced variability of the AMOC has various relevant climate impacts, such as a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, anomalous Amazonian rainfall, and a sustained increase in European temperatures. While this model has only a partial representation of the atmospheric response to solar variability, these results demonstrate the potential for solar variability to have a multidecadal impact on North Atlantic climate.     

Biogenic hydrogen sulphide emissions and non-sea sulfate aerosols over the Indian Sundarban mangrove forest

Temporal variations in atmospheric hydrogen sulphide concentrations and its biosphere-atmosphere exchanges were studied in the World’s largest mangrove ecosystem, Sundarbans, India. The results were used to understand the possible contribution of H₂S fluxes in the formation of atmospheric aerosol of different size classes (e.g. accumulation, nucleation and coarse mode). The mixing ratio of hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) over the Sundarban mangrove atmosphere was found maximum during the post-monsoon season (October to January) with a mean value of 0.59?±?0.02 ppb and the minimum during pre-monsoon (February to May) with a mean value of 0.26?±?0.01 ppb. This forest acted as a perennial source of H₂S and the sediment-air emission flux ranged between 1213?±?276 μg S m^?2 d^?1(December) and 457?±?114 μg S m^?2 d^?1 (August) with an annual mean of 768?±?240 μg S m^?2d^?1. The total annual emissions of H₂S from the Indian Sundarban were estimated to be 1.2?±?0.6 Tg S. The accumulation mode of aerosols was found to be more enriched with non-sea salt sulfate with an average loading of 5.74 μg m^?3 followed by the coarse mode (5.18 μg m^?3) and nucleation mode (1.18 μg m^?3). However, the relative contribution of Non-sea salt sulfate aerosol to total sulfate aerosol was highest in the nucleation mode (83%) followed by the accumulation (73%) and coarse mode (58%). Significant positive relations between H₂S flux and different modes of NSS indicated the likely link between H₂S, a dominant precursor for the non-sea salt sulfate, and non-sea sulfate aerosol particles. An increase in H₂S emissions from the mangrove could result in an increase in enhanced NSS in aerosol and associated cloud albedo, and a decrease in the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the Sundarban mangrove forest.     

Past millennial solar forcing magnitude

A set of global climate model simulations for the last thousand years developed by the Max Planck Institute is compared with paleoclimate proxy data and instrumental data, focusing on surface temperatures for land areas between 30° and 75°N. The proxy data are obtained from six previously published Northern Hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, here re-calibrated for consistency, which are compared with the simulations utilizing a newly developed statistical framework for ranking several competing simulations by means of their statistical distance against past climate variations. The climate model simulations are driven by either “low” or “high” solar forcing amplitudes (0.1 and 0.25 % smaller total solar irradiance in the Maunder Minimum period compared to the present) in addition to several other known climate forcings of importance. Our results indicate that the high solar forcing amplitude results in a poorer match with the hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions and lends stronger statistical support for the low-amplitude solar forcing. However, results are likely conditional upon the sensitivity of the climate model used and strongly dependent on the choice of temperature reconstruction, hence a greater consensus is needed regarding the reconstruction of past temperatures as this currently provides a great source of uncertainty.     

Potential Role of Solar Variability as an Agent for Climate Change

Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector averaged global climate model in order to assess the potential impact of solar variability on the Earth's surface temperature from 1700 to 1992. This was done by investigating the model response to the variations in solar radiation caused by the changes in the Earth's orbital elements, as well as by the changes intrinsic to the Sun. In the absence of a full physical theory able to explain the origin of the observed total solar irradiance variations, three different total solar irradiance reconstructions have been used. A total solar irradiance change due to the photospheric effects incorporated in the Willson and Hudson (1988) parameterization, and the newly reconstructed solar total irradiance variations from the solar models of Hoyt and Schatten (1993) and Lean et al. (1995). Our results indicate that while the influence of the orbital forcing on the annual and global mean surface temperature is negligible at the century time scale, the monthly mean response to this forcing can be quite different from one month to another. The modelled global warming due to the three investigated total solar irradiance reconstructions is insufficient to reproduce the observed 20th century warming. Nevertheless, our simulated surface temperature response to the changes in the Sun's radiant energy output suggests that the Gleissberg cycle (88 years) solar forcing should not be neglected in explaining the century-scale climate variations. Finally, spectral analysis seems to point out that the 10- to 12-year oscillations found in the recorded Northern Hemisphere temperature variations from 1700 to 1992 could be unrelated to the solar forcing. Such a result could indicate that the eleven-year period which is frequently found in climate data might be related to oscillations in the atmosphere or oceans, internal to the climate system.     

Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response

We integrate the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM to equilibrium under atmospheric CO₂ quadrupling. The equilibrium global-mean surface-temperature change is 10.8 K. The surface equilibrates within about 1,200 years, the deep ocean within 5,000 years. The impact of the deep ocean on the equilibrium surface-temperature response is illustrated by the difference between ECHAM5/MPIOM and ECHAM5 coupled with slab ocean model (ECHAM5/SOM). The equilibrium global-mean surface temperature response is 11.1 K in ECHAM5/SOM and is thus 0.3 K higher than in ECHAM5/MPIOM. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows less warming over the northern-hemisphere mid and high latitudes, but larger warming over the tropical ocean and especially over the southern-hemisphere high latitudes. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows similar polar amplification in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, in contrast to ECHAM5/SOM, which shows stronger polar amplification in the northern hemisphere. The southern polar warming in ECHAM5/MPIOM is greatly delayed by Antarctic deep-ocean warming due to convective and isopycnal mixing. The equilibrium ocean temperature warming under CO₂ quadrupling is around 8.0 K and is near-uniform with depth. The global-mean steric sea-level rise is 5.8 m in equilibrium; of this, 2.3 m are due to the deep-ocean warming after the surface temperature has almost equilibrated. This result suggests that the surface temperature change is a poor predictor for steric sea-level change in the long term. The effective climate response method described in Gregory et al. (2004) is evaluated with our simulation, which shows that their method to estimate the equilibrium climate response is accurate to within 10 %.     

Climate Responses to Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols,Tropospheric Ozone,and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases in Eastern China over 1951–2000

A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to chang- ing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases(GHGs,CO2,CH4,N2O),tropospheric O3,and aerosols during the years 1951–2000.Concentrations of sulfate,nitrate,primary organic carbon(POA),secondary organic carbon(SOA),black carbon(BC)aerosols,and tropospheric O3 for the years 1950 and 2000 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol-GCM simulations,and then monthly concentrations are in- terpolated ...     

Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S _g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency.     

Daytime boundary layer behavior over eastern region (per-humid climate) and western regions (semi-arid climate) of India: a case study

The annual variation in planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is determined from the profiles of conserved thermodynamic variables, i.e., virtual potential temperature ?? _v and equivalent potential temperature ?? _e, using radiosonde data at per-humid climate region, Ranchi (23°42??N, 85°33??E, 610?m asl) and semi-arid region, Anand (23°35??N, 72°55??E, 45.1?m asl), India. Of all the variables, the ?? _v profile seems to provide the most reasonable estimate of the PBL height. This has been supplemented by T-Phi gram analysis for specific days. It has been found that in winter the height of boundary layer is very low due to subsidence and radiational cooling, while pre-monsoon months exhibit the most variable convection. It may be inferred that synoptic conditions accompanied by a variety of weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, onset and withdrawal of monsoons, etc. control the ABL over Ranchi, while daytime solar insolation and nighttime radiative cooling mainly control the ABL over Anand.