Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.     

Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Recent Progress of Hemispheric Coupling of Solar Activity Cycle

The hemispheric coupling phenomenon of solar activity cycle was discovered as early as the mid-20th century, and it is one of the most common topic in the long-term spatio-temporal evolution of the Sun, while the observational features and physical mechanism of hemispheric coupling have not been completely understood. The theoretical model of solar magnetohydrodynamics driven by this phenomenon is helpful in studying the basic information of the spatio-temporal evolution of solar activity cycle, and is also of great value to the short- and medium-term forecast of solar activity as well as the space weather. Here, we first give the discovery and observational history of the hemispheric coupling of solar activity. And then, the basic observational features of hemispheric coupling at different spatio-temporal scales and their possible mechanism are summarized. Finally, we give a discussion about the important unresolved issues and development trends in this important field.     

太阳22周峰年若干特点

本文讨论了第２２太阳活动周的下列重要特点：１．呈现双峰，并在双峰期的槽中又突起孤立的单峰。２．黑子面积峰值滞后相对数峰值的仅占１６．６７％；黑子面积与相对数同步占５８．３３％；二者峰值不能对应占２５％。３．１９８６年１０月以后，纬度≥３０°的有半影的黑子群共出现８７群；延迟在峰年期间出现的有５３群，占６０．９２％；对应有Ｍ级以上Ｘ射线爆发的活动区１８个，占２０．６９％。这一现象与“蝴蝶图”规律不符。     

国内外空间天气短期预报和警报及其现状

综述了空间天气短期预报和警报所研究的内容和与之相对应的研究方法。同时，介绍了目前国内外在空间天气短期预报和警报方面的研究现状，及目前国内外从事这方面研究的主要机构或组织的概况。     

Solar wind variation with the cycle

The cyclic evolution of the heliospheric plasma parameters is related to the time-dependent boundary conditions in the solar corona. &amp;#x201C;Minimal&amp;#x201D; coronal configurations correspond to the regular appearance of the tenuous, but hot and fast plasma streams from the large polar coronal holes. The denser, but cooler and slower solar wind is adjacent to coronal streamers. Irregular dynamic manifestations are present in the corona and the solar wind everywhere and always. They follow the solar activity cycle rather well. Because of this, the direct and indirect solar wind measurements demonstrate clear variations in space and time according to the minimal, intermediate and maximal conditions of the cycles. The average solar wind density, velocity and temperature measured at the Earth&amp;#x2019;s orbit show specific decadal variations and trends, which are of the order of the first tens per cent during the last three solar cycles. Statistical, spectral and correlation characteristics of the solar wind are reviewed with the emphasis on the cycles.     

Systematic Time Delay of Hemispheric Solar Activity

Five solar-activity indices – the monthly-mean sunspot numbers from January 1945 to March 2008, the monthly-mean sunspot areas during the period of May 1874 to March 2008, the monthly numbers of sunspot groups from May 1874 to May 2008, the monthly-mean flare indices from January 1966 to December 2006, and the numbers of solar filaments per Carrington rotation in the time interval of solar rotations 876 to 1823 – have been used to show a systematic time delay between northern and southern hemispheric solar activities in a cycle. It is found that solar activity does not occur synchronously in the northern and southern hemispheres, and there is a systematic time lag or lead (phase shift) between northern and southern hemispheric solar activity in a cycle. About an eight-cycle period is inferred to exist in such phase shifts. The activity on the Sun may be governed by two different and coupled processes, not by a single process.     

对太阳第21周最强烈活动区的分析

太阳第２１周实测到３９８６个活动区，以黑子面积、Ｘ射线耀斑指数、１０．７ｃｍ射电爆发及质子事件等四项指数，从中综合评估出ＡＲ３８０４、ＡＲ４４７４等１６个最强烈活动区。与２２周比较，两周都有在时空分布的相对集中性特征。但２１周集中在４个时段，不如２２周在２个时段集中；２１周出现的５个热点，只有南半球在经度８５°前后的热点，与２２周３个热点之一相似；２１周的整体活动水平略低，在Ｘ射线和质子事件两方面尤为显著低于２２周     

Solar Cycle Predictions Based on Extrapolation of Spectral Components: An Update

Three series (1876 – 1986, 1886 – 1996, and 1896 – 2006) of 111 annual values of sunspot number R _z in each were subjected to spectral analysis to detect periodicities by the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the periodicities so obtained were used in a multiple regression analysis (MRA) to estimate the amplitudes and phases. All series showed roughly similar spectra with many periodicities (24 or more), but most of these were insignificant. The significant periodicities (far exceeding 2σ) were near 5, 8 – 12, 18, and 37 years. Using the amplitudes and phases of these, we obtained reconstructed series, which showed good correlations (+ 0.7 and more) with the original series. When extrapolated further in time, the reconstructed series indicated R _z(max) in the ranges 80 – 101 (mean 92) for cycle 24 during years 2011 – 2014, 112 – 127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years 2022 – 2023, 115 – 120 (mean 118) for cycle 26 during years 2032 – 2034, and 100 – 113 (mean 109) for cycle 27 during 2043 – 2045.     

太阳活动22周以来的冕洞和地磁指数

本文对２２太阳活动用以来的中低纬冕洞和地磁指数Ａｐ进行了统计。对以月、季、年及２２周以来不同时段冕洞和地磁指数（Ｐｌａｎｅｔａｒｙ的Ａ指教）的时段合成图进行了分析。     

第23太阳活动周发展趋势预测

利用压强改正莫斯科中子监测值,对第２３太阳活动周的未来发展趋势作了预测,推测第 ２３周太阳活动和第 ２２周相当,约在 ２００１年达到 １５１± １６的极大月平均黑子相对数．     

Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

2009年7月22日昆明日偏食太阳色球观测

阐述了云南天文台太阳全日面Hα色球望远镜对特殊天象日食的观测及资料情况。同时为局部射电源特征分析研究、CME理论、地球物理效应等相关学科研究提供资料共享信息。     

关于太阳射电快速活动真伪信号识别问题

本文列举了云南天文台四波段太阳射电实测中得到的几种干扰实例及确认的太阳快速信号，在认识到太阳射电和干扰信号十分相似的基础上，探讨如何识别真伪信号问题。     

Periodicities in Global Mean TEC from GNSS Observations

As an important measurement parameter, global total electron content (TEC) is appropriate for the study of the Sun–Earth connection. In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the periodicities in global mean TEC during 1995–2008. Analysis results show several remarkable components (including 27-day, semiannual and annual cycles) existing in global mean TEC with obvious time-variable characteristics, besides 11-year cycle. After analyzing sunspot numbers and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) radiation variations during this time period, except for semiannual variations, close correlation between global mean TEC and solar variations is found, especially, a strong resemblance of the 27-day fluctuation exists in global mean TEC, sunspot and solar EUV radiation variations.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.     

The 27-Day Signal in Sunspot Number Series and the Solar Dynamo

We analyze the Wolf number daily series WN (1849 to present) as well as two other related series characterizing solar activity. Our analysis consists in computing the amplitude of a given Fourier component in a sliding time window and examining its long-term evolution. We start with the well-known 27.03- and 27.6-day periods and observe strong decadal variations of this amplitude as well as a sharp increase of the average value starting around 1905. We then consider a packet of 31 lines with periods from 25.743 to 28.453 days, which is shown to be a better representation of the synodic solar rotation. We first examine the temporal evolution of individual lines, then the energy of the packet. The energy of the packet increases sharply at the beginning of the 20th century, leading by more than two decades the well-known increase of the Wolf number. The nonaxisymmetry of sunspots increases before the total increase of activity and may be considered as a precursor. We discuss briefly and tentatively this observation in terms of solar dynamo theory.