Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

Preliminary investigations of the tsunami hazard of Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano

Kick'em Jenny is a submarine volcano situated 9 kilometres north of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles. A preliminary study suggests that the volcano is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the Eastern Caribbean region. The uniqueness of individual volcanic eruptions means that attempts to generalise tsunamigenic mechanisms are extremely tentative. However, the theory of underwater explosion generated water waves is applicable to submarine volcanoes to model explosive eruptions. Using this theory, initial maximum ocean surface displacements are calculated for Kick'em Jenny hydroeruptions, corresponding to various event magnitudes (up to a worst-case scenario eruption on the scale of Krakatau, 1883). Wave propagation theories are then applied to the resulting tsunami wave dispersion, before beach shoaling equations are used to estimate the maximum tsunami run-up at adjacent coastal areas. Maps of the region have been prepared showing the paths of the wave-fronts (ray-tracing), travel times and maximum wave run-up amplitudes along coastlines. Finally, an attempt is made to assess how great a hazard the volcano represents, by considering the probability of each magnitude event occurring.     

Numerical modeling of a landslide-generated tsunami following a potential explosion of the Montserrat volcano

The explosion of the Montserrat volcano (Caribbean Sea) could trigger a major landslide and lead to the generation of a tsunami in the Caribbean Sea. In the worst case scenario, the volume of material reaching the sea has been estimated at 80 millions of cubic meters. The sliding of this mass and the generation of the associated tsunami have been simulated numerically, assuming that the debris behave like a heavy fluid flowing into the sea. The numerical model solves the 3D Navier-Stokes equations for a mixture composed of rocks and water. The generated water waves is then propagated around the coast of Montserrat by means of a shallow water model. The numerical results show that the water heights above sea level are higher than 5 meters within a radius of 5 km of the source.     

Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?

A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.     

Distribution and transport of hydrocarbons in surface sediments of the alaskan outer continental shelf

Surface sediments from the Outer Continental Shelf of Alaska were analyzed for hydrocarbons as part of an environmental survey sponsored by NOAA/BLM. Sediments were collected from the proposed oil lease areas of Beaufort Sea, southeastern Bering Sea, Norton Sound, Navarin Basin, Gulf of Alaska, Kodiak Shelf and lower Cook Inlet. Data on normal and branched alkanes and di- and triterpenoids from capillary gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/ MS) indicate that the area displays little evidence of petroleum hydrocarbons (i.e., seeps) except at a few isolated stations. Beaufort Sea sediments have the highest hydrocarbon budget, whereas Kodiak Shelf sediments have the lowest. The molecular markers of the hydrocarbons are of a mixed marine autochthonous and terrestrial allochthonous origin. Norton Sound and Cook Inlet sediments contain the highest levels of terrigenous lipids and Kodiak Shelf the lowest. The abundance of alkenes implies that relatively low oxidizing conditions exist in some of the depositional areas studied, suggesting that extraneous petroleum hydrocarbons introduced into these sediments would be expected to have a relatively long residence time. The distribution of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) is complex and shows a pyrolytic origin. The data on perylene strongly favor the hypothesis that it is “performed” from terrigenous precursors and transported into the marine environment with no apparent in situ generation. Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons of diagenetic origin are probably dominant in Gulf of Alaska and Kodiak Shelf sediments.Two stations, north of Kalgin Island, in lower Cook Inlet and one in southeastern Bering Sea show typical weathered petroleum distribution of n-alkanes and triterpenoids. Probable pathways of transport and fate of petroleum hydrocarbons in case of an oil spill are also briefly discussed.     

Relationships between Mafic and Peralkaline Silicic Magmatism in Continental Rift Settings: a Petrological, Geochemical and Isotopic Study of the Gedemsa Volcano, Central Ethiopian Rift

Petrological and geochemical data are reported for basalts andsilicic peralkaline rocks from the Quaternary Gedemsa volcano,northern Ethiopian rift, with the aim of discussing the petrogenesisof peralkaline magmas and the significance of the Daly Gap occurringat local and regional scales. Incompatible element vs incompatibleelement diagrams display smooth positive trends; the isotoperatios of the silicic rocks (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0·70406–0·70719;¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0·51274–0·51279) encompassthose of the mafic rocks. These data suggest a genetic linkbetween rhyolites and basalts, but are not definitive in establishingwhether silicic rocks are related to basalts through fractionalcrystallization or partial melting. Geochemical modelling ofincompatible vs compatible elements excludes the possibilitythat peralkaline rhyolites are generated by melting of basalticrocks, and indicates a derivation by fractional crystallizationplus moderate assimilation of wall rocks (AFC) starting fromtrachytes; the latter have exceedingly low contents of compatibleelements, which precludes a derivation by basalt melting. ContinuousAFC from basalt to rhyolite, with small rates of crustal assimilation,best explains the geochemical data. This process generated azoned magma chamber whose silicic upper part acted as a densityfilter for mafic magmas and was preferentially tapped; maficmagmas, ponding at the bottom, were erupted only during post-calderastages, intensively mingled with silicic melts. The large numberof caldera depressions found in the northern Ethiopian riftand their coincidence with zones of positive gravity anomaliessuggest the occurrence of numerous magma chambers where evolutionaryprocesses generated silicic peralkaline melts starting frommafic parental magmas. This suggests that the petrological andvolcanological model proposed for Gedemsa may have regionalsignificance, thus furnishing an explanation for the large-volumeperalkaline ignimbrites in the Ethiopian rift. KEY WORDS: peralkaline rhyolites; geochemistry; Daly Gap; Gedemsa volcano; Ethiopian rift     

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

Influence of Two Tropical Storms on the Residual Flow in a Subtropical Tidal Inlet

The mechanisms responsible for the modulation of laterally sheared non-tidal (residual) exchange flow in a subtropical inlet, with special emphasis on tropical storm influence, are studied using a combination of current velocity profiles and hydrographic and meteorological data. The mouth of the inlet, St. Augustine Inlet in northeast Florida, is characterized by a 15-m-deep channel flanked by shoals (<6 m deep). Residual flows across the inlet mouth were laterally sheared with inflow in the channel and outflow over the shoals. This pattern persisted during four separate semi-diurnal tidal cycle surveys effected over 3 years. During spring tides, residual exchange flows intensified relative to neap tides. Residual inflow in the channel only reversed immediately after tropical storms because of their extreme winds and major temporal changes in water level. After the residual flow reversed in the channel, along-channel baroclinicity drove gravitational circulation that persisted for 4.5 days and was enhanced by offshore winds. A depth-averaged along-basin momentum budget highlighted the importance of bottom friction to help balance the barotropic pressure gradient. The rest of the momentum budget was likely provided by advective terms. During and after tropical storms, accelerations from wind stress and baroclinic pressure gradients also became influential in the along-basin momentum budget.     

Assessment of fire danger vulnerability using McArthur’s forest and grass fire danger indices

We present a field survey and a number of simulations of the local Persian Gulf tsunami of 19 March 2017 at Bandar Dayyer, Iran, which resulted in one death, five persons missing and significant damage to the port. The field survey defined the inundated area as extending \(\sim\, 40\) km along the coast, with major effects concentrated on an \(\sim\, 8\) km stretch immediately west of Dayyer, a maximum run-up of 3 m and maximum inundation reaching 600 m. In the absence of significant earthquakes on that day, we first test the possibility of generation of a landslide; however, our simulations for legitimate sources fail to reproduce the distribution of run-up along the coast. We prefer the model of a meteorological tsunami, triggered by Proudman resonance with a hypothetical weather front moving at 10 m/s in a NNW azimuth, which could be an ancillary phenomenon to a major shamal wind system present over the Persian Gulf on that day. More detailed simulations of the Dayyer tsunami would require an improved bathymetric grid in the vicinity of the relevant coastal segment.     

The Ischia debris avalanche: first clear submarine evidence in the Mediterranean of a volcanic island prehistorical collapse

Sector or flank collapse with related debris avalanches is increasingly recognized as a relatively common volcanic behaviour, in particular, for large, hot‐spot related oceanic islands. Here, we report the case of a catastrophic collapse that occurred at Ischia volcanic island in prehistorical times and was driven by the volcano‐tectonic uplift of Mt Epomeo, the major relief of the island. The collapse left a subaerial to submarine horseshoe scar on the southern flank of the island and generated a debris avalanche incorporating thousands of giant blocks dispersed as far as 50 km from the island. During the emplacement, part of the debris avalanche evolved into a debris flow covering an area of 250–300 km². This constitutes the first, clear evidence of a submarine debris avalanche in the Mediterranean Sea. The major collapse was followed, and probably also preceded, by recurrent, less catastrophic terrestrial and underwater failures. Two other undersea hummocky deposits are found north and west of the island and might tentatively be correlated to the major southern collapse. Such volcanic behaviour, previously unknown for Ischia Volcano, has likely triggered tsunami waves over the entire Bay of Naples raising the question of their impact on prehistorical/historical communities.     

Use of Regional Geochemical Survey Data and exploratory statistics to estimate natural condition concentrations for trace metals in stream sediments: a case study for the Cook Inlet watershed,Alaska

The United States and other nations use the term natural conditions or reference conditions in legislation providing for the protection of aquatic ecosystems. Natural or reference conditions are generally used to describe environmental conditions in an aquatic resource before any human introduced pollution. The natural or reference conditions are used in establishing water quality criteria for protection of aquatic resources, helping classify aquatic resources within a regulatory category, and for assessing effectiveness of aquatic resource restoration actions. Regional scale geochemical mapping of stream sediments is available for many countries that when combined with exploratory data analysis and geospatial data can be used to establish screening level natural conditions for trace metals in stream sediments. This approach is applied to the Cook Inlet watershed in Alaska using the US Geological Survey National Geochemical Survey stream sediment trace metals data. Upper concentration limits are developed for As, Cr, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn in the Cook Inlet watershed to aid in screening sediments for potential anthropogenic contamination.     

The Storegga tsunami along the Norwegian coast, its age and run up

The statigraphy in 25 coastal lakes shows that most of the Norwegian coastline was impacted by a large tsunami about 7200 ¹⁴C BP. The methodology has been to core a staircase of lake basins above the contemporary sea level in several areas and to map the tsunami deposit to its maximum elevation. The tsunami was identified in the sedimentary record as an erosional unconformity overlain by graded or massive sand with shell fragments, followed by redeposited organic detritus. The greatest recorded runup along the coast (10–11 m above high tide) is found in areas most proximal to the Storegga slide scar on the Norwegian continental slope (Sunnmøre). To the north and south, runup is less, about 6–7 m at Bjugn (250 km north of Sunnmøre) and about 3–5 m in Austrheim (200 km to the south of Sunnmerre). This runup pattern supports the suggestion that the tsunami was generated by the Second Storegga Slide. The recorded runup heights are consistent within and between the investigated areas, and imply that the tsunami wave was not significantly influenced by the local topography, suggesting a very long wave length. The mapped runup estimates are in good agreement with a numerical model of the tsunami generated by the Second Storegga slide, and indicate that the slide was a single major event rather than a set of smaller slides.     

A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Numerical Simulation of the 1969 Portuguese Tsunami by a Finite Element Method

On 28 February 1969, the coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco were affected by sea waves generated by a submarine earthquake (Ms = 7.3) with its epicenter located off Portugal. The propagation of this tsunami has been simulated by a finite element numerical model solving the Boussinesq equations. These equations have been discretized using the finite element Galerkin method and a Crank–Nicholson scheme in time. The model is validated by investigating the propagation of a solitary wave over a flat bottom. The grid sizes for the 1969 event have been determined by one-dimensional tests offshore and in shallow water regions. The two-dimensional simulation of the 1969 tsunami is carried out using the hydraulic source calculated from the geophysical model of Okada and seismic parameters of Fukao. The modeled waves are compared with the recorded ones with respect to travel times, maximum amplitudes and periods of the signal. The comparison between Boussinesq and shallow-water models shows that the effects of frequency dispersion are minor. Good agreement is found for most of the studied gauges.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds

The Scotia Arc is one of two regions in the Atlantic Ocean with greater potential for tsunami generation from seismic and volcanic sources. A numerical modeling study was undertaken to determine tsunami generation from postulated sources along the Arc and tsunami wave amplification or attenuation along the Patagonian continental shelf. Sea level oscillation represented by a simple sinusoidal wave function applied at the boundary of the numerical grid, which simulated the tsunami entering the computational domain, was implemented as forcing. The validation of this model was carried out by comparing the maximum amplitudes recorded and simulated at Santa Teresita and Mar del Plata (Buenos Aires province) after the occurrence of earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Sumatra (December 2004). From numerical simulations it can be seen that the tsunami propagation is highly affected by bathymetric refraction on the Patagonian continental shelf and the wave amplitude is significantly attenuated on the inner continental shelf. Maximum amplifications were obtained around Malvinas (Falkland) Islands and Burdwood bank because the wave propagates almost without refracting and the shoaling effect is highly significant there.     

The great Minoan eruption of Thera volcano and the ensuing tsunami in the Greek Archipelago

The eastern Mediterranean has been the cradle of many great civilizations. The history of the area consisted of glorious battles, heroic acts, and the rise and fall of great civilizations. But, sometimes, natural hazards became the cause for a new classification of the political, as well as of the military status quo of the region. The enormous eruption of the submarine volcano at the Greek island of Thera (Santorini) during the Bronze Age, around 1500 BC, is such a natural hazard. The tsunami generated by the eruption, literally wiped out the peace-loving Minoan civilization who inhabited the island of Crete. After the sea subsided, the configuration of the area was altered, and the decline of the Minoan principality on the Archipelago began. The present paper introduces evidence concerning the tsunami and states some of the after-effects which were partly responsible for the decline of the Minoan empire. All the information is gathered from historical sources and from recent research works. An effort has been made to include many of the theories introduced by various researchers through time concerning the event. Finally, information has been included from all known research, as well as from the author's own conclusions, in order to make the paper useful to future researchers.     

Application of an oil spill vulnerability index to the shoreline of lower Cook Inlet,Alaska

Offshore tracts in Alaska's lower Cook Inlet are scheduled to be opened for exploratory petroleum drilling in the near future. Because of the potential for oil spills resulting from this activity, a field study of the coastal zone was conducted in June 1976. A total of 1216 km of shoreline was classified into 3 types: erosional (45 percent), neutral (38 percent), and depositional (17 percent). These were further subdivided into 16 subclasses on the basis of small scale morphological features. This classification was used in conjunction with a vulnerability index of potential oil spill damage, developed through study of three major oil spills, to predict the longevity of oil in the different coastal environments of the Inlet. On a scale from 1 to 10, 45 percent of the shoreline has low values of 1 to 4, which means that oil would be dispersed by natural processes within less than six months after a spill on these coasts. Values from 4 to 6 were assigned to 13.4 percent of the shoreline, where oil residence time may be up to one year. A 6 to 10 rating was assigned to 41.5 percent of the shoreline, where oil contamination may remain for periods of two to ten years, or possibly longer should no major clean-up procedures be initiated. We propose that the use of this type of vulnerability indexing, in conjunction with a biological susceptibility index and oil spill trajectory models, would provide a rational basis for decision making concerning the location of on- and off-shore oil facilities and the design of oil spill contingency plans.     

Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources

Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of M_W 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.