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1.
从钻孔温度看气候变化──方法介绍及实例   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
地壳浅层的地温分布与过去一定时期的地表温度变化之间有着内在的联系,地温场记录着地表温度变化的历史。由于地表温度是描述气候变化的重要参数,通过对钻孔地温数据进行分析处理,可以达到研究古气候变化的目的。美国东北部、加拿大东南部和中国四川攀西地区若干钻孔地温剖面的反演结果一致表明,这些区域在过去数百年间地表温度均有不同程度的升高。与研究古气候的其他方法相比,地热方法具有理论基础牢固和现成数据基础庞大的突出特点,这一研究方法在世界范围的广泛应用必将有助于揭开全球气候变化的奥秘。  相似文献   

2.
地下浅层地温和近地表空气温度存在着必然的内在联系,地面温度变化的信息随着时间推移向下传播并叠加到稳态地温场上,因此通过对现今地温剖面的分析可以重建过去地面温度变化的历史。为了研究西安地区地下和地上的温度变化,本文在西安开展了钻孔温度测量,获得了16个钻孔的地温剖面,同时收集整理了西安气象站1951~2010年气温数据。对1951~2010年气温数据进行回归分析得到西安地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温和最低气温增温率分别为3.71 ℃/100a、2.03 ℃/100a和5.14 ℃/100a,均高于全国和全球平均水平,其中1986~2010年间平均气温增温更是显著,达到9.01 ℃/100a。从钻孔测温曲线中筛选出西安城郊6个传导型地温剖面进行分析,结果表明西安地区钻孔温度记录的地面温度变化趋势与气象台记录的气温变化趋势基本吻合。根据利用钻孔温度剖面下段回归分析得到的地表稳态温度和地温梯度以及25年间西安地区平均气温增温率推算得到钻孔理论地温剖面与实测地温数据总体上具有较好的一致性。对实测地温数据的进一步精确拟合分析显示,西安城郊6个选定的钻孔所在区域地面温度变暖分别起始于20年、24年、26年、28年、30年和30年前,对应的地表增温幅度分别为0.4 ℃、0.72 ℃、2.18 ℃、4.2 ℃、2.4 ℃和2.4 ℃。市区和周边郊区钻孔所在区域在增温幅度上存在明显的差异,市区增温强度明显高于郊区,而城郊结合部介于两者之间。  相似文献   

3.
The ‘low’ in the transient temperature versus depth borehole profiles around 120 m seen from deep temperature logs in the Canadian Prairies (southern Alberta–southern Saskatchewan), as well as in some of the European data, has been interpreted to be related to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Data point to the lowest ground surface and subsurface temperatures occurring in the very late eighteenth to nineteenth centuries. Inversion of these logs shows that surface temperature lows were followed by a recent warming period. Further, the synthetic profiles built on the basis of solar forcing history, stretching as far back as the beginning of the seventeenth century, suggest that the LIA signatures interpreted from the inversion of the borehole temperature logs would be difficult to be explained by known published models of past solar irradiation despite large range of assumed sensitivities for the couplings assumed, and that further forcing needs to be considered.  相似文献   

4.
孙欢  王宁练 《冰川冻土》2022,44(3):784-794
冰川内部温度与过去冰面温度变化密切相关,因此可以利用冰川钻孔温度对过去冰面温度变化过程进行重建。耦合的热传导-冰流物理模型与相关反演算法,是基于冰川钻孔温度进行古气候重建研究的理论基础和关键。论文收集了过去三十多年基于冰川钻孔温度进行古气候重建的研究文献,从冰川钻孔温度对气候变化的响应和古气候重建等方面进行了概述,并简要讨论了不同反演算法的优劣性和适用条件。尽管很多因素(如太阳辐射、融水等)都会对冰川钻孔温度造成影响,但两极或高纬地区的冷冰川钻孔温度能较好地反映气候变化历史。目前已通过这些不同地区的冰川钻孔温度,重建了末次冰期冰盛期以来不同时间尺度的气候变化历史,同时可与对应的冰芯记录相互印证。此外,通过冰川钻孔温度可以研究冰川与气温的耦合作用,并进一步预测冰川对未来气候变化的响应。利用中纬度冷冰川钻孔温度开展古气候重建的研究较少,未来加深这一方面的研究将有助于揭示中纬度高海拔地区的气候变化状况。  相似文献   

5.
In the recent decades, a large amount of anthropogenic heat has been absorbed and stored in the Southern Ocean. Results from observations and climate models' simulations both show that the Southern Ocean displays large warming in the upper and subsurface ocean that maximizes at 45°~40°S. However, the underlying mechanisms and evolution processes of the Southern Ocean temperature changes remain unclear, leaving the Southern Ocean to be a hotspot of climate change studies in the recent years. The present study summarized the current progress in the observations and numerical modeling of long-term temperature changes in the Southern Ocean. The effects of changes in wind, surface heat flux, sea-ice and other factors on the ocean temperature changes were presented, along with the introduction to the role of oceanic mean circulation and eddies. The present study further proposed that a deepening of the understanding in the Southern Ocean temperature change may be achieved by investigating the fast and slow responses of the Southern Ocean to external radiative forcing, which are respectively associated with the fast adjustments of the ocean mixed-layer and the slow evolution of the deep ocean. Specifically, the striking and fast mixed-layer ocean warming north of 50°S is tightly related to the surface heat absorption over upwelling regions and wind-driven meridional heat transport, resulting in enhanced warming around 45°S. While in the slow response of the Southern Ocean temperature, the enhanced ocean warming shifts southward and downward, mainly associating with the heat transfer from oceanic eddies. The Southern Ocean temperature has pronounced climatic effects on many aspects, such as global energy balance, sea-level rise, ocean stratification changes, regional surface warming and atmospheric circulation changes. However, large model biases/deficiencies in simulating the present-day climatology and essential ocean dynamic processes last in generations of climate models, which are the main challenge in advancing our understanding in the mechanisms for the Southern Ocean climate changes. Therefore, to achieve reliable future projections of the Southern Ocean climate, substantial efforts will be needed to improve the model performances and physical understanding in the relative role of various processes in ocean temperature changes at different time scales.  相似文献   

6.
We used a 55-cm sediment core from shallow Chaiwopu Lake in the central Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, northwest China, to investigate climate and environmental changes in this arid region over the past ~150 years. The core was dated using 137Cs. We compared temporal changes in several sediment variables with recent meteorological and tree-ring records. Organic matter had a positive correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central Tianshan Mountains, and the δ13C of organic matter had a positive correlation with regional temperature. We applied constrained incremental sum-of-squares cluster analysis to element concentrations in the core and identified three distinct zones: (1) 55–46 cm, ~1860–1910, (2) 46–26 cm, ~1910–1952, and (3) 26–0 cm, 1952–present. Between 1880 and 1910 AD, following the Little Ice Age (LIA), the sediment environment was relatively stable, climate was cold and dry, and the lake water displayed high salinity, in contrast to conditions during the LIA. During the LIA, westerlies carried more water vapor into Central Asia when the North Atlantic Oscillation was in a negative phase, and encountered the enhanced Siberia High, which probably led to increased precipitation. In the period 1910–1950 AD, the lake was shallow and the regional climate was unstable, with high temperatures and humidity. In the last ~15–20 years, human activities caused an increase in sediment magnetic susceptibility, and heavy metal and total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment were substantially enriched. Mean annual temperature displays a warming trend over the past 50 years, and the lowest temperature was observed in the 1950s. There has been an increase in annual total precipitation since the 1990s. The combined influences of climate and human activity on the lake environment during this period were faithfully recorded in sediments of Chaiwopu Lake. This study provides a scientific basis for environmental management and protection.  相似文献   

7.
地球表面的温度信号向地下传播并影响地下温度剖面,这种温度剖面可从钻孔中测量,通过分析可重建过去表面温度变化.虽然认识到表面温度变化对地下温度和热流的影响已有很长时间,但仅在20世纪80年代以后钻孔温度剖面才被广泛应用于气候变化研究.钻孔气候方法与其他重建过去气候的近似方法不同,因为它是基于温度剖面测量与过去气候,即地表温度(GST)、重构参数的直接物理联系之上的.钻孔温度气候研究方法已被证实可以重建过去地表温度趋势,并且最终可结合表面气温序列估计其预观测平均值(POMs).钻孔温度剖面并不是地表温度的代用指标,而是地球大陆表面能量平衡的直接测量.这种地下的信号通过热扩散衰减非常快,因而对从地下温度测量数据中提取过去气候变化信息的方法施加了一个物理限制.描述由钻孔中测量的温度—深度剖面来重建GST历史的基本特征及问题.  相似文献   

8.
青藏高原地区过去2000年来的气候变化   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
杨保 《地球科学进展》2003,18(2):285-291
依据冰芯、树轮、沉积物分析和冰川波动等各单点古气候代用资料,以及重建的综合温度变化曲线,分析了近 2000年青藏高原温度变化的整体性和区域性特征。全青藏高原综合温度曲线显示中世纪暖期(1150-1400年)、小冰期(1400-1900年)以及公元 3~5世纪冷期的存在。青藏高原温度变化具有明显的区域性特征。在 9~11世纪,青藏高原东北部以温暖为特征,而青藏高原南部和西部表现为寒冷。青藏高原南部和西部分别于1150-1400年(此时段在高原东北部表现为弱暖期)和1250-1500年经历了气候变暖。与中国东部文献记录的最新综合研究结果比较,高原东北部与中国东部的温度变化最为一致。而且,许多重大气候事件,如1100-1150年、1500-1550年、1650-1700年和1800-1850年的冷事件在高原和中国东部同时出现,而后 3次冷期与小冰期期间中国西部发生的冰川前进相匹配。  相似文献   

9.
Direct information about climate change from meteorological surface air temperature records are available in India only since 1901 A.D. Meteorological surface air temperature (SAT) data for the period 1901–2006 from 49 sites in peninsular India have been combined with the geothermal data from 146 sites to extract a baseline (or pre-observational mean, POM) surface temperature prior to the existence of the observational record in the region. Periodicities of 5, 11 and 22 years in the SAT time series have little influence on the combined analysis to infer long-term climate change. The best estimate of the long-term average temperature for the 19th Century is 0.7 °C lower than the 1961–1990 mean temperature. Considering the additional warming of 0.38°C relative to the 1961–1990 mean over a 10-year window centred on the year 2000, the hybrid POM-SAT method suggests that the total surface warming in peninsular India from mid-1800s to early- 2000s is about 1.1 °C. The study provides new evidence for significant warming prior to the establishment of widespread meteorological stations in peninsular India.  相似文献   

10.

全球变暖背景下频发的极端气候事件, 严重影响了经济社会可持续发展。研究过去人类活动背景下的气候变化特征可为预测气候变化趋势、制定应对策略提供历史借鉴。本研究选取福建梅花山国家级自然保护区山间泥炭岩芯(长度238cm)119个沉积物进行腐殖化度分析, 结合粒度和烧失量记录, 重建近千年来福建地区高分辨率气候历史。研究结果显示, 在东亚季风区的低纬亚高山山间盆地, 泥炭沉积物腐殖化度越高, 指示气候越冷干; 腐殖化度越低, 指示气候越暖湿。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度在980~1529A.D.呈现低值(均值8.4%), 指示中世纪暖期较强的东亚季风和暖湿气候; 1529~1926A.D.呈显著高值(均值24.8%), 指示明清小冰期较弱的季风和冷干气候; 1926A.D.以来波动下降(均值22.8%), 对应了现代暖期。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录与区域沉积记录显示出对东亚季风的同步响应。研究结果记录了小冰期的第二次和第三次冷期, 分别为1589~1757A.D.和1842~1926A.D.。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录的近千年气候变化可能受太阳辐射、热带辐合带和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动等的共同驱动。

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11.
杨保  王鑫  宋苗  王江林  史锋  方苗 《第四纪研究》2017,37(5):945-962

过去2000年气候变化研究是全球气候变化研究的核心内容,不仅可以提供20世纪气候增暖的自然背景,也是最终揭示20世纪气候变暖机理并预估未来气候变化趋势的关键途径,是国际大型计划(如PAGES,过去全球变化研究计划)的优先研究时段。近20多年来,特别是近几年,随着代用资料的不断积累和气候重建方法的改进和发展,过去2000年大尺度气候重建研究取得了长足发展,在区域和北半球气候集成重建方法,年际、年代、百年乃至千年时间尺度上的气候时空变化特征和机制,及最近几十年气候增暖的历史地位等方面的研究均取得了重要科学认识,形成了现代气候增暖机理和未来气候趋势预估的科学基础。本文主要从方法学、研究历史回顾和现阶段形成的科学认识等3个方面论述过去2000年气候变化研究取得的成就,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。

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12.
近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验是全球气候模拟研究的新领域,它不仅将现代器测资料与过去代用指标序列进行了有机的衔接,而且对过去百年和年代际尺度的气候变化可进行动力学解释,探讨其主要控制因素及其导致的区域响应差异。由于这类长积分模拟对计算机技术和气候模式本身的要求较高,目前能进行这类研究的国家为数不多。重点介绍了德国马普气象研究所的全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G,以及利用该模式进行的千年长积分模拟试验结果。首先,应用全球120年的器测资料对模拟结果进行了检验,论证了该模型较强的气候模拟能力;其次,根据全球地表2 m气温的千年模拟结果,揭示了中世纪暖期—小冰期—20世纪暖期三段式气候变化时段,然后讨论了中世纪暖期和小冰期鼎盛期全球及中国的温度分布特点;最后根据对各控制因子的拟合分析与比较,初步揭示了近千年来的温度变化主要受太阳有效辐射的变化控制,而温室气体含量的增加对100年来温度的快速上升起着主导作用。   相似文献   

13.
Both monsoons and westerlies have exerted influence on climate dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) since the last deglaciation, producing complex patterns of paleohydroclimatic conditions. Diverse proxy records are essential to forge a robust understanding of the climate system on the TP. Currently, there is a general lack of understanding of the response of inland lakes over the TP to climate change, especially glacier‐fed lakes. Paleohydrological reconstructions of such lakes could deepen our understanding of the history of lake systems and their relationship to regional climate variability. Here we use records of n‐alkanes and grain size from the sediments of Bangong Co in the western TP to reconstruct paleohydrological changes over the past 16,000 years. The Paq record (the ratio of non‐emergent aquatic macrophytes versus emergent aquatic macrophytes and terrestrial plants) is generally consistent with the variations in summer temperature and precipitation isotopes. The changes in grain‐size distributions show a similar trend to Paq but with less pronounced fluctuations in the early‐middle Holocene. The new data combined with previous results from the site demonstrate that: 1) Bangong Co experienced relatively large water‐level fluctuations during the last deglaciation, with a steadily high lake‐level during the early‐middle Holocene and a decreasing lake‐level in the late Holocene; 2) The lake level fluctuations were driven by both high summer temperatures via the melting water and monsoon precipitation. However, the dominant factor controlling lake level changed over time. The lake‐level history at Bangong Co deduced from the n‐alkanes and grain‐size records reveals the past hydrological changes in the catchment area, and stimulates more discussion about the future of glacier‐fed lakes under the conditions of unprecedented warming in the region.  相似文献   

14.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2003,22(5-7):691-701
Oxygen and carbon isotopic variations in the upper section of a stalagmite (SF-1) from Buddha Cave (33°40′N 109°05′E) dated by 230Th/234U 210Pb and lamination counting to a time resolution as fine as 1–3 years have recorded climate changes in central China for the last 1270 years. The changes include those corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age and 20th-century warming lending support to the global extent of these events. The isotopic records also show cycles of 33, 22, 11, 9.6, and 7.2 years. The 33-year cycle could well represent the ∼35-year periodicity of climate fluctuations previously recognized in China and Europe. Cycles of 22, 11, and 9.6 years have often been associated with the Sunspot or lunar-orbit variations. The 7.2-year cycle was recently identified also in tree-ring records from an area close to Buddha Cave. These cycles suggest that external forcing (e.g. solar irradiance) may affect the summer monsoon over eastern China. The general consistency between the climate characteristics inferred from the stable isotope records of SF-1 and those from other proxy records underscores the value of stalagmites as recorders of paleoclimate.  相似文献   

15.
Results of paleoclimatic analysis of geothermal data in the Middle and Southern Urals for different time intervals are presented. Climate reconstruction for the past millennium was made using data from 44 boreholes, and the magnitude of the Wurm–Holocene warming event was estimated based on data from two deep boreholes. The method of functional space inversion was used. The resolution of the method for reconstruction of various climatic events in the past was investigated. Parameters specified a priori and the required duration of the period to be reconstructed were chosen from the results of numerical modeling. According to the inversion results, the ground surface temperature at the maximum of the Medieval Warm Period in 1100–1200 was approximately the same as the present temperature, and at the minimum of the Little Ice Age around 1720, it was 1.2–3 °C lower than at present. The subsequent temperature rise was more pronounced in the past century. The magnitude of the Wurm–Holocene warming event, reconstructed using data from two deep boreholes is 10–11 °C.  相似文献   

16.
全球气候变暖研究中的不确定性   总被引:40,自引:0,他引:40  
龚道溢  王绍武 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):371-376
讨论了有关全球变暖研究中存在的一些不确定性 ,主要包括 3个方面 ,即资料方面的不确定性 ,气候变化机制方面的不确定性和预测方面的不确定性。城市热岛效应是资料中最大的误差来源 ,特别是一些最近几十年快速发展的城市 ,其热岛效应的误差没有很好地得到检查和排除。资料覆盖面也很不完善。地面观测温度在 1979— 1999年的趋势是 0 19℃ / 10a ,但覆盖全球的卫星观测资料(反映对流层低层到中层 )趋势只有 0 0 6℃ / 10a。北极地区的温度变化也没有设想的那样强烈。使用海表温度比使用海表气温得到的变暖估计值偏高。 1979年以来 ,用气温代替海温 ,趋势只有0 13℃ / 10a。海洋在气候变化中的作用需要更深入地研究。利用代用资料来估计全球温度的变化 ,带来的不确定性较大 ,特别是树木年轮 ,因为CO2 浓度的增加可以加速植物的生长 ,其年轮宽度并不一定主要反映与温度的关系。未来气候变化的预测有很大的不确定性 ,到 2 10 0年全球平均气温达+1 4℃~ +5 8℃的估计很可能偏高。  相似文献   

17.
《Geodinamica Acta》2000,13(1):19-27
Thermal profiles in Morocco present a negative gradient in the first 60 to 150 m depth. The importance of this subsurface disturbance seems to represent a change of soil surface temperature rather than a lithological contrast or a circulation of fluid. This world-wide phenomenon is expressed in Morocco by a warming of approximately 1.5 to 3 °C over last 100 to 300 years. Particularly intensive deforestation in northeastern Morocco adds to climatic variations to give a more marked surface temperature anomaly.  相似文献   

18.
全新世是地球历史上最新的一个间冰期,历时已有一万余年。期间,伴随着气候与环境的快速变化,人类文明也呈现出快速的演化,当前全球气候变暖导致人类生存环境的急剧变化已引起全球各国政府和科学家的广泛而深刻的关注和研究。然而,全新世期间曾多次出现气候波动阶段,对全新世这一间冰期气候与环境变化过程和机制的研究就有着十分重要的意义,可为现代气候变暖及其影响提供科学借鉴。地处中低纬度的青藏高原这一高耸的巨大地块,堪称"地球第三极",是一个集冰川、多年冻土、湖泊同时共存的特殊区域,受人类活动直接影响较弱,其冰川进退变化、多年冻土形成与消融、湖泊扩张与萎缩的变化过程则敏感地记录着气候与环境的自然变化。在多年对青藏高原冰川、冰缘和湖泊沉积与地貌的考察研究资料基础上,把冰川进退、冰缘地貌的发育和湖泊连续沉积的记录进行综合分析、相互对比印证,指出青藏高原全新世间冰期气候与环境变化的不稳定性,期间明显存在着千年和百年的波动变化,在距今8000~8500年、6000~5500年、4000~4500年左右、3000~2000年左右以及600~100年都存在明显的冷期。因此,在青藏高原,全新世气候存在着较大幅度的波动,从冰川前进幅度所需零平衡线下降值和多年冻土下界下降幅度来大致估算,温度的波动幅度至少也在3.5~5.0℃左右,甚至更大。  相似文献   

19.
全球碳循环与中国百年气候变化   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
廖宏  朱懿旦 《第四纪研究》2010,30(3):445-455
文章总结近百年来中国气候变化的特点、人类活动对碳循环的影响以及温室气体气候效应的模式研究结果。近百年来,中国年平均温度呈上升趋势,但温度变化具地区性和季节性特征。近50年观测到的冬季增温最为明显,长江中下游地区夏季地区还出现了降温。人类活动被认为是导致全球变暖的重要原因。大气CO2浓度从工业化前的约280ppm增加到了2008年的385.2ppm[1]。20世纪90年代期间,全球碳源为8.0GtC/a(1Gt=10亿吨),包括化石燃料燃烧产生的碳(6.4±0.4GtC/a)和土地利用变化产生的碳1.6[0.5~2.7]GtC/a。同时大气中增加的碳为3.2±0.1GtC/a和海洋吸收的碳为2.2±0.4GtC/a[2]。碳源比碳汇高出2.6[0.9~4.3]GtC/a,这部分目前学术界还不能解释的碳汇被称为“碳失汇”[2]。北半球陆地生态系统是寻找“碳失汇”的重要方向。目前多数气候模式能够成功再现全球平均气温在过去百年的实际演变。就全球年平均温度在 1880~1999年的变化而言,在自然因子和人为因子的共同强迫作用下,参加IPCC AR4的19个耦合模式集合模拟的变暖趋势为0.67℃/100a,非常接近观测的0.53℃/100a[3]。 多模式集合的结果与观测序列的相关系数可以达到0.87[3],这种高相关系数主要来自20世纪的变暖趋势。19个耦合模式模拟中国平均气温演变的能力较之模拟全球平均情况要差,与实际观测值之间的相关系数为0.55[4]。这表明对区域尺度的气候变化而言,其情况要比全球平均情况复杂的多,特别是中国地区存在的高浓度气溶胶,能在很大程度上影响中国区域的气候变化。由于气候变化同时受地球系统的自然变率和人为因子的影响,更进一步了解全球碳循环对中国近百年气候变化的影响还依赖于地球气候系统模式对各种自然和人为气候强迫的模拟准确性,特别需要结合观测和模拟减小陆地生态系统碳源汇的不确定性。  相似文献   

20.
SST(海洋表层温度,sea surface temperature)的季节与年际异常对于认识现代全球变暖、重建历史时期气候变化以及探讨气候变化机制具有重要意义,而台湾东北部海域SST季节与年际异常的研究却相对较少.为更好地理解现代全球变暖和历史气候变化,利用NOAA的全球海表温度最优插值资料、Hadley中心的全球海表温度数据以及MEI逐月指数,分析了现代全球变暖背景下台湾东北部海域SST季节与年际异常及其控制因素.季节尺度上,受东亚冬季风的影响,研究海区的冬季SST变化比夏季更为剧烈,冬季SST控制着该海域年均SST和SST季节性的变化.现代器测和古气候记录表明该现象在年际-百年尺度上可能一直存在.年际尺度上,SST异常与MEI指数存在显著的8个月滞后相关性,ENSO(厄尔尼诺—南方涛动,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation)事件通过东亚冬季风来影响研究海域的SST变化.在历史气候重建中区分气候变化的多尺度性和替代指标的季节性、认识历史气候对ENSO及东亚冬季风的响应特征和机制,这将有助于进一步理解现代全球气候变暖的原因.   相似文献   

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