Interpolating U.S. Decennial Census Tract Data from as Early as 1970 to 2010: A Longitudinal Tract Database

Differences in the reporting units of data from diverse sources and changes in units over time are common obstacles to analysis of areal data. We compare common approaches to this problem in the context of changes over time in the boundaries of U.S. census tracts. In every decennial census, many tracts are split, consolidated, or changed in other ways from the previous boundaries to reflect population growth or decline. We examine two interpolation methods to create a bridge between years, one that relies only on areal weighting and another that also introduces population weights. Results demonstrate that these approaches produce substantially different estimates for variables that involve population counts, but they have a high degree of convergence for variables defined as rates or averages. Finally, the article describes the Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB), through which we are making available public-use tools to implement these methods to create estimates within 2010 tract boundaries for any tract-level data (from the census or other sources) that are available for prior years as early as 1970.     

圣保罗大都市区社会空间分异研究——多元统计方法在城市连绵区的应用

空间数据和地理信息系统在城市规划和决策中应用的重要性日见凸显。主要原因在于：重要的人口数据和社会变动经常表现出一定的空间特性,这种特性可以通过空间分析和统计方法被认识和解释。应用多元分析的空间分类方法编制圣保罗大都市区社会分异地图并进行相关分析。研究的主要数据来自2000年巴西全国人口普查,其中包括了圣保罗大都市的所有行政区和39个自治市的21774个人口普查区。为了把都市连绵区从数据全集中分离出来,我们采用混合技术进行互补分析,即在2000年4月30日的陆地卫星7号图像中绘制一个个多边形,这些被识别出来的多边形就是人口普查区。然后,通过目视解译出假彩色多边形集合。应用空间分类评分程序将这些多边形分成五类,并建立人口普查区的数目、覆盖的面积和都市连绵区之间的关系。这种多元分析方法是基于变量的均衡化来生成易于用分级统计图描述平均值,以促进可视化和后续的空间分布分析。基于多元分析的空间分类方法研究,清楚地展现了圣保罗大都市最重要的社会特征,也说明城市社会地图方法和多元分析的空间分类方法在大都市区的管理、公共政策规划和复杂决策中具有重要的应用价值。     

Research Note—A New Method for Mapping Population and Understanding the Spatial Dynamics of Disease in Urban Areas: Asthma in the Bronx,New York

Determining an accurate depiction of population distribution for urban areas in order to develop an improved "denominator" is important for the calculation of higher-precision rates in GIS analyses, particularly when exploring the spatial dynamics of disease. Rather than using data aggregated by arbitrary administrative boundaries such as census tracts, we developed the Cadastral-Based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), an interpolation method using ancillary information to delineate areas of homogeneous values. This method uses cadastral data, land-use filters, modeling by expert system routines, and validation against various census enumeration units and other data. The CEDS method is presented through a case study of asthma hospitalizations in the borough of the Bronx in New York City, in relation to proximity buffers constructed around major sources of air pollution. The analysis using CEDS shows that asthma hospitalization risk due to proximity to pollution sources is greater than previously calculated using traditional disaggregation methods.     

Identifying the boundaries of functionally homogeneous areas in space images from a calculation of the Jacobian determinant

We examine the characteristics of the method for identifying the boundaries of natural objects on space images, based on calculating the Jacobian determinant. The boundaries of areas are inferred not from the values of brightness characteristics of images in different channels but from the degree of their functional connection. A functional connection of the particular type is conserved within an area, whereas on the boundary of the areas there occurs a change-over from a connection of one type to another. A theoretical rationale is provided for the relationship between the regularities seen in images and the geographical properties of objects observed. The method works effectively in studying and mapping undisturbed natural territories and permits determination of the degree of disturbance for tracts of terrain.     

Variation in low food access areas due to data source inaccuracies

Several spatial measures of community food access identifying so called “food deserts” have been developed based on geospatial information and commercially-available, secondary data listings of food retail outlets. It is not known how data inaccuracies influence the designation of Census tracts as areas of low access. This study replicated the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) food desert measure and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) non-healthier food retail tract measure in two secondary data sources (InfoUSA and Dun & Bradstreet) and reference data from an eight-county field census covering 169 Census tracts in South Carolina. For the USDA ERS food deserts measure accuracy statistics for secondary data sources were 94% concordance, 50–65% sensitivity, and 60–64% positive predictive value (PPV). Based on the CDC non-healthier food retail tracts both secondary data demonstrated 88–91% concordance, 80–86% sensitivity and 78–82% PPV. While inaccuracies in secondary data sources used to identify low food access areas may be acceptable for large-scale surveillance, verification with field work is advisable for local community efforts aimed at identifying and improving food access.     

Whither the Jobs: Identifying Concentrations of Employment in Metropolitan Areas

Large concentrations of employment have developed outside traditional central business districts. Our research focuses on analyzing the changing distribution of employment in metropolitan areas by using tract-to-tract commuting data from Census 2000 to identify high-employment nodes within large metropolitan areas. We propose a new way to delineate clusters of contiguous high-employment tracts based on the job density in these areas. We then compare outlying employment clusters with traditional central business districts and contrast employment clusters of varying job densities. Our method has several advantages over existing methods of identifying employment clusters: it is conceptually simple, can use publicly available data, relies on a standardized geographic unit applicable across the entire United States, and offers the ability to examine data from multiple census years.     

An enhanced approach for modeling spatial accessibility for in vitro fertilization services in the rural Midwestern United States

Highly technological in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment is available at relatively few medical centers in rural United States. This research derives a spatial accessibility surface for IVF centers in a rural Midwestern state through the application of computational methods that consider spatial and non-spatial parameters to discover potentially underserved areas in the state. These methods include a modified gravity model and techniques from spatial interaction modeling. The approach develops an enhanced accessibility index that incorporates three key sociodemographic variables describing patients seeking infertility healthcare in Iowa that have been identified based on a survey of IVF care practitioners in the state. Self-organizing map techniques are used to reveal cluster locations based on the degree of match between census sociodemographic data and the expert-identified variables. The spatial accessibility surface is combined with the sociodemographic clusters to define an enhanced measure of spatial accessibility. The results suggest that while the state's IVF centers are located in tracts characterized by high spatial accessibility, at least 19% of patients travel from census tracts classed as moderate to low accessibility. This result reveals some opportunities for service improvements for these locations. Interestingly, for tracts that are characterized as having a lower patient sociodemographic match, high spatial accessibility does not appear to be a factor that improves the likelihood of patient care, at least for the variables investigated as part of this research.     

SPLITAREA: an algorithm for weighted splitting of faces in the context of a planar partition

Geographic data themes modelled as planar partitions are found in many GIS applications (e.g. topographic data, land cover, zoning plans, etc.). When generalizing this kind of 2D map, this specific nature has to be respected and generalization operations should be carefully designed. This paper presents a design and implementation of an algorithm to perform a split operation of faces (polygonal areas).

The result of the split operation has to fit in with the topological data structure supporting variable-scale data. The algorithm, termed SPLITAREA, obtains the skeleton of a face using a constrained Delaunay triangulation. The new split operator is especially relevant in urban areas with many infrastructural objects such as roads. The contribution of this work is twofold: (1) the quality of the split operation is formally assessed by comparing the results on actual test data sets with a goal/metric we defined beforehand for the ‘balanced’ split and (2) the algorithm allows a weighted split, where different neighbours have different weights due to different compatibility. With the weighted split, the special case of unmovable boundaries is also explicitly addressed.

The developed split algorithm can also be used outside the generalization context in other settings. For example, to make two cross-border data sets fit, the algorithm could be applied to allow splitting of slivers.     

Above and belowground phenology of four Mediterranean sub-shrubs. Preliminary results on root–shoot competition

Above and belowground phenology are critical aspects for plant life in areas of seasonal climate like Mediterranean regions. However, fine root growth phenology is rarely considered in most phenological studies. In this article we describe the above and belowground phenology of four species of Mediterranean sub-shrubs growing along a gradient of temperature and water availability, with special attention at the relationship between both processes. Observations were conducted monthly over a minimum of 12 months per species. Fine root growth varied significantly throughout the year, being higher in autumn than in spring and minimum in summer. In the species growing in cold areas, root growth was also reduced during winter. Shoot growth was maximum in spring for the four study species, buts its beginning was related to the site temperature, being earlier in those species growing in warmer sites. The species displaying a short vegetative period tended to separate root and shoot growth processes throughout the year. These results emphasize the importance of water availability and winter cold on fine root growth. A trade-off appears to exist between the duration of the vegetative period and the overlap between root and shoot growth processes.     

1982-2006 年欧亚大陆植被生长季开始时间遥感监测分析

植被物候是环境条件季节和年际变化最直观、最敏感的生物指示器,物候变化可以反映陆地生态系统对气候变化的快速响应.论文基于1982-2006 年连续25 年的GIMMS AVHRR NDVI数据,采用动态阈值法、延迟滑动平均法,双Logistic 和Savitzky-Golay 方法提取欧亚大陆植被的生长季开始时间,并对不同方法的提取结果进行比较和分析.然后以动态阈值法的物候提取结果,研究了1982-2006 年期间植被物候变化趋势以及物候对温度变化的响应情况.结果表明：动态阈值法在欧亚大陆地区生长季开始时间提取率高,在纬度上的变化趋势稳定;北方森林/针叶林和苔原地区的生长季开始时间提取结果最稳定,低纬度区域的变率最大.1982-2006 年,大部分植被类型的生长季开始时间表现出提早趋势,其中森林覆盖区域提早趋势明显,变化幅度为11.45~15.61 d/25a;除了郁闭式至开放式( > 15%) 灌木丛( < 5 m)植被类型外,植被物候和温度表现出负相关关系,变化幅度为1.32~3.47d/℃,这也验证了近几十年气候变暖的趋势.     

Evolution of Population Densities: Five Canadian Cities, 1971-20011

This article presents new methods for comparative analysis of patterns of gross population density, and employs them in five Canadian metropolitan areas. By comparing changes in levels and patterns in the 1971-2001 period, assessments are made of the macro-level impacts of policies relating to densification and re-densification, and of how such impacts vary by city size. Three comparative techniques are employed. The first uses location quotients to map densities for census tracts in urbanized areas. A second approach defines central and peripheral density clusters, and analyzes their mapped patterns. The third method employs local indices of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) to detect locally significant "hotspots," particularly suburban outliers of higher density. Results suggest that in the suburbs homogenously low-density areas are in decline, while both high-density and heterogeneous areas are increasingly evident.     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

Race and (Online) Sites of Consumption

Due to the hybrid nature of material and digital spaces, more decisions are being made online that have a direct effect on offline actions. This is increasingly true for the locations where people are choosing to consume goods and services such as restaurants or retail outlets. The growth of the GeoWeb—personal data uploaded to certain Internet sites such as social media platforms—has established large databases showing the locations where people go during their daily lives for the purposes of consumption. One such repository is the social network, Foursquare, which people use to display their physical location to their friends, digitally. In looking more closely at datasets from Foursquare overlaid with information on racial characteristics in census tracts, a pattern emerges: predominantly African‐American tracts are increasingly left out of this type of online participation. This paper will compare Foursquare data from several U.S. cities to discuss the implications of being left off of social media platforms tied to economic activity. It is likely that these virtually invisible areas will have a direct impact on the economic vitality of their physical counterparts     

Mapping urban risk: Flood hazards,race, & environmental justice in New York

This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal-weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37% and 72% fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts.     

Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the last 12 000 years

An analysis has been made of archaeointensity data for the past 12 000 years. There are 3243 results from different areas of the world covering the past 12 000 years. Of these, 2203 are from the European region and 1040 are from the rest of the world. The archaeointensity data set analysed in the present study is almost three times larger than that used by McElhinny & Senanayake (1982 ). Although there is no major difference between our global data and the earlier data, the data for the non-European region have been improved and we now have a data set for Asia.     

CONSISTENCY AND DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT IN URBAN SOCIAL DIMENSIONALITY: INTRA-URBAN VARIATIONS IN THE 24 METROPOLITAN AREAS OF CANADA

Relatively few factorial ecologies have explored either the consistency of the social dimensionality of urban areas in more than a few cities or the separation of city-specific from general effects. This study of almost 3,000 census tracts in all 24 Canadian metropolitan areas (CMAs) used 35 variables from 198 1 census data to solve these problems. It shows there is a persistent similarity in six of the seven to nine dimensions found in separate analyses of three city size categories: over 1 million; 0.5-1 million; 100-500 thousand people. From this basis a combined study of all the centers shows that 85% of the variability can be summarized by nine dimensions called Economic Status, Impoverishment, Ethnicity, Early and Late Family, Family/Age, Pre-Family, Non-Family, Housing, and Migrant Status. The evidence for several different family-related axes illustrates the increasing complexity of the social dimensionality of modern cities based on family differentiation. F-ratio values and Eta coefficients are used to show that all the first-order axes, except Migration and Ethnicity, have much greater variability within, rather than between the cities, demonstrating the general rather than the city-specific nature of these dimensions. An analysis of the highest scoring tracts on the axes demonstrates the way in which some CMAs have relatively high incidences of some of the characteristics, thereby identifying the particular characteristics of many centers.     

Estimated Sand and Gravel Resources of the South Merrimack, Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, 7.5-Minute Quadrangle

A computer methodology is presented that allows natural aggregate producers, local governmental, and nongovernmental planners to define specific locations that may have sand and gravel deposits meeting user-specified minimum size, thickness, and geographic and geologic criteria, in areas where the surficial geology has been mapped. As an example, the surficial geologic map of the South Merrimack quadrangle was digitized and several digital geographic information system databases were downloaded from the internet and used to estimate the sand and gravel resources in the quadrangle. More than 41 percent of the South Merrimack quadrangle has been mapped as having sand and (or) gravel deposited by glacial meltwaters. These glaciofluvial areas are estimated to contain a total of 10 million m³ of material mapped as gravel, 60 million m³ of material mapped as mixed sand and gravel, and another 50 million m³ of material mapped as sand with minor silt. The mean thickness of these areas is about 1.95 meters. Twenty tracts were selected, each having individual areas of more than about 14 acres (5.67 hectares) of stratified glacial-meltwater sand and gravel deposits, at least 10-feet (3.0 m) of material above the watertable, and not sterilized by the proximity of buildings, roads, streams and other bodies of water, or railroads. The 20 tracts are estimated to contain between about 4 and 10 million short tons (st) of gravel and 20 and 30 million st of sand. The five most gravel-rich tracts contain about 71 to 82 percent of the gravel resources in all 20 tracts and about 54–56 percent of the sand. Using this methodology, and the above criteria, a group of four tracts, divided by narrow areas sterilized by a small stream and secondary roads, may have the highest potential in the quadrangle for sand and gravel resources.

基于电子地图兴趣点的城市建成区边界识别方法

城市建成区边界是认识和研究城市的重要基础性信息,也是落实城市功能空间布局、实施界限管控的前提。但是,以往通过夜间灯光的强度、土地覆被或建筑覆盖率等信息获取城市空间范围的方法,由于受到数据精度和尺度限制,对城市社会经济活动的解释性不强,因而存在较大局限性。电子地图兴趣点（POI）作为城市空间分析的基础数据之一,直观且有效地反映了各类城市要素的集聚状况。本文基于POI与城市空间结构和城市要素空间分布的关联性,提出了一种新的通过POI密度分布来判别城市建成区边界的技术方法。为此,开发了Densi-Graph分析方法,用来分析POI密度等值线的变化趋势,在此基础上对城乡过渡地带的阈值识别的方法进行了理论分析,并讨论了单中心圆结构、双中心“鱼眼型”结构、双中心“子母型”结构等各类城市POI密度等值线的生长规律,证明了Densi-Graph分析方法的适用性。较之以往的城市建成区边界识别方法,这种方法的基础数据更加直观可信,分析结果也更加客观。运用这种方法,本文对全国地级以上城市的建成区边界进行了实证分析,探索了城市建成区边界的阈值及其与城市人口规模、城市所在区域之间的关系。     

METROPOLITAN,URBAN, AND RURAL COMMUTING AREAS: TOWARD A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE UNITED STATES SETTLEMENT SYSTEM

Discontent with the current definition of metropolitan areas and the lack of differentiation within nonmetropolitan territory provided the incentive for the research presented here. Census tracts rather than counties were used as the building blocks for assignment of tracts, not just to metropolitan areas, but also to larger towns (10,000 to 49,999) and to smaller urban places (2,500 to 9,999). The analysis used 1990 census-defined urbanized areas and tract-to-tract commuter flows. Results include a modest shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan, as well as a significant reduction in the areal size of metropolitan areas, disaggregation of many areas, and frequent reconfiguration to a more realistic settlement form. [Key words: metropolitan, urban-rural, commuting.]     

Using simulated data to investigate the spatial patterns of obesity prevalence at the census tract level in metropolitan Detroit

Obesity is a serious public health problem in the United States. It is important to estimate obesity prevalence at the local level to target programmatic and policy interventions. It is challenging, however, to obtain local estimates of obesity prevalence because national health surveys such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) are not designed to produce direct estimates at the local levels (e.g. census tracts) due to small population samples and the need to preserve individual confidentiality. In this study we address the problem of estimating local obesity prevalence rates by implementing a spatial microsimulation modeling technique to proportionally replicate the demographic characteristics of BRFSS respondents to census tract populations in metropolitan Detroit. Obesity prevalence rates are examined for high and low spatial clusters and studied in relation to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) measures of low-income neighborhoods and local food deserts and CDC's measure of healthy and less healthy food environments currently used to target obesity reduction initiatives. This study found that obesity prevalence was largely clustered in the City of Detroit extending north into contiguous suburbs. The spatial patterns of highest obesity prevalence tracts were most similarly aligned with USDA-defined low-income tracts and CDC's less healthy food tracts. The locations of USDA's food desert tracts rarely overlapped with the highest obesity prevalence tracts. This study demonstrated a new methodology by which to assess local areas in need of future obesity interventions.