美丽中国建设——人地和谐共生理论与评估指标体系及应用

The Beautiful China Initiative(BCI)is a plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation as well as for China to fulfill the United Nations’2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Chinese government’s“five-in-one”approach provides strategic arrangements for developing the BCI,and President Xi Jinping proposed a timetable and“road map”for the BCI at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection.Nevertheless,the theoretical basis,evaluation index system,evaluation criteria and effectiveness of the BCI are currently unclear.This paper begins by exploring the basic content of the BCI from narrow and broad perspectives.It regards the theory of human-nature harmonious coexistence and the five-in-one beauty theory as the core theoretical bases of the BCI and constructs a five-element BCI evaluation index system(ecological environment,green development,social harmony,system perfection and cultural heritage)and utilizes the assessment method of the United Nations’Human Development Index to assess scientifically the effectiveness of the BCI in 341 prefecture-level cities.The results show the average BCI index(the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beauty Index)score to be 0.28,which is quite low,while the average scores for the individual element indexes of the ecological environment index,green development index,social harmony index,system perfection index and cultural heritage index are 0.6,0.22,0.29,0.22 and 0.07,respectively.All of these are relatively low values,with relatively large discrepancies in regional development,indicating that progress in the BCI is generally slow and unbalanced.To realize the BCI’s timetable and roadmap to a high quality and high standard,it is suggested that a common system for evaluating the progress of the BCI is developed and promulgated so that dynamic monitoring and phased evaluations can take place;BCI technical assessment standards are compiled and published;BCI comprehensive zoning is undertaken;pilot projects adapted to local conditions are launched in BCI sample areas;and BCI results are incorporated into performance indicators at all levels of government.     

Assessment and analysis of ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy

The Yangtze River is the third largest river in the world and the longest and largest river in China.China has adopted a national strategy to protect the Yangtze River.A better understanding of the ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River would provide support for the Yangtze River protection strategy.Using Costanza’s method to estimate the ecosystem services value,the value of 10 ecosystem services was estimated within 1 km and 2 km from the Yangtze River in 2017.These 10 services were derived from the four established groupings of provisioning,regulating,supporting,and cultural services.This study compared and analyzed the changes in the ecosystem services value in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the river,and in provinces,cities,and villages along the Yangtze River.The total ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river was 37.208 and 43.769 billion yuan,respectively.Within 1 km,the ecosystem services value in the middle reaches was 12.93 billion yuan,while the next highest value was in the upper reaches at 12.45 billion yuan,and the downstream area had the smallest value of 11.855 billion yuan.Within 2 km,the value of upstream ecosystem services was the highest at 16.31 billion yuan,while the second highest value was in the middle reaches at 14.376 billion yuan,and the smallest value was in the downstream area at 13.083 billion yuan.In the Yangtze River Basin,regulating services played a leading role,accounting for 81.6%and 78.9%of the ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river,respectively.Among the 10 ecosystem services,hydrological regulation was the most important,while the value of raw material production made the smallest contribution.Among the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River,the highest ecosystem services value was in Hubei Province,while the lowest values were in Shanghai and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.If villages within 1 km and 2 km from the river were to be relocated,the total regional ecological value would increase by 527 and 975 million yuan,respectively.     

SCAR-COMMNAP南极数据管理联合委员会第11届大会在罗马召开

2007年9月3—8日,SCAR-COMMNAP南极数据管理联合委员会第11届大会(JCADM-11)在意大利罗马举行,来自荷兰、英国、美国、意大利、法国、南非、比利时、德国、新西兰、挪威、澳大利亚、阿根廷、马来西亚、韩国和中国等20个国家的代表出席了本次会议,GCMD(全球变化主目录)也派特约代表出席了会议,本次大会是历届会议中出席代表最多的一次。首先,JCADM主席回顾了过去一年所做的工作。取得的进展有:在数据管理方面,数据目录从2006年的3000余条增加到目前的4300多条;中国南北极数据中心在2006年—2007年7月期间向AMD(南极主目录)提交元…     

自然保护地旅游人地关系演进过程研究——以博格达为例

Protected areas have a double mandate of both "protection" and "use." Naturebased tourism is considered an effective tool in terms of environmental conservation. Understanding the causes and consequences of a spatiotemporal succession of tourism construction is an important channel to explore the changes of tourism-environment interaction in the protected area. To analyze the spatio-temporal variations in tourism construction lands, we adopted Mt. Bogda as an example. We systematically quantified the interaction between these changes and environmental variables and explored the evolution process of tourism-environment interaction of the mountainous protected area in the northwest arid region. Our results revealed the following:(1) In the Bogda protected area, the proportion of tourism construction lands first appeared to be increasing, then decreasing dramatically, and finally growing slowly. The spatial expansion of tourism construction lands followed the "core-periphery" pattern, respectively showing shapely infilling, reasonable agglomeration, barycenter shift, and outlying growth from 1990 to 2018 as the stages of concentrating on the core.(2) The higher land-use intensity of tourism construction drove the changes of landscape fragmentation, diversity, stability, primitive, and nature degree in the protected area. The coupling coordination between tourism and the environment in the Bogda area decreased at first, and then slowly increased. Meanwhile, tourism did not cause irreversible damage to the natural environment, and the coupling coordination degree between tourism and the environment was still in the state of balanced development. It expressed the states of original balanced, development exceeds environment and barely balanced, and superiorly balanced. The historical evolution of tourism-environment interaction in Bogda reflects the pattern of periodic changes in China’s protected areas to a certain extent.     

9.5–2.3 ka BP燕辽地区考古文化演变及其遗址的时空分布（英文）

With basic information from 8353 archaeological sites, this study describes a holistic spatial-temporal distribution pattern of archaeological sites of the prehistoric culture sequence from 9.5 ka BP (ka BP = thousands of years before 0 BP, where "0 BP" is defined as the year AD 1950) to 2.3 ka BP in the region that extends from the Yanshan Mountains to the Liaohe River Plain(i.e., the Yan-Liao region) in northern China. Based on spatial statistics analysis – including the spatial density of the sites and Geographic Information System nearest-neighbour analysis, combined with a review of environmental and climatic data – this paper analyses cultural evolution, the spatial-temporal features of the archaeological sites and human activities against the backdrop of climatic and environmental changes in this region. The results reveal that prehistoric cultural evolution in the Yan-Liao region is extensively influenced by climatic and environmental changes. The Xinglongwa, Zhaobaogou and Fuhe cultures, which primarily developed during a habitable period from 8.5 ka BP to 6.0 ka BP with strong summer monsoons, have similar maximum density values, spatial patterns and subsistence strategies dominated by hunting-gathering. Significant changes occurred in the Hongshan and Lower Xiajiadian cultures, with a significant increase in numbers and densities of sites and a slump in average nearest-neighbour ratio when the environment began to deteriorate starting in 6.0 ka BP. Additionally, with the onset of a weak summer monsoon and the predominance of primitive agriculture, sites of these two cultures present a different type of concentric circle-shaped pattern in space. As the environment continuously deteriorated with increasing aridity and the spread of steppe, more sites were distributed towards the south, and primitive agriculture was replaced by livestock husbandry in the Upper Xiajiadian culture. The most densely populated areas of the studied cultures are centralized within a limited area. The Laohahe River and Jiaolaihe River basins formed the core area in which most archaeological sites were distributed during the strong summer monsoon period and the first few thousand years of the weak summer monsoon period.     

黑河流域地理观测分析——复杂性科学视角（英文）

Since 2005,dozens of geographical observational stations have been established in the Heihe River Basin(HRB),and by now a large amount of meteorological,hydrological,and ecological observations as well as data pertaining to water resources,soil and vegetation have been collected.To adequately analyze these available data and data to be further collected in future,we present a perspective from complexity theory.The concrete materials covered include a presentation of adaptive multiscale filter,which can readily determine arbitrary trends,maximally reduce noise,and reliably perform fractal and multifractal analysis,and a presentation of scale-dependent Lyapunov exponent(SDLE),which can reliably distinguish deterministic chaos from random processes,determine the error doubling time for prediction,and obtain the defining parameters of the process examined.The adaptive filter is illustrated by applying it to obtain the global warming trend and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation from sea surface temperature data,and by applying it to some variables collected at the HRB to determine diurnal cycle and fractal properties.The SDLE is illustrated to determine intermittent chaos from river flow data.     

1986-2015年小浪底水库运行前后黄河下游主槽调整规律

Based on the measured discharge,sediment load,and cross-sectional data from 1986 to 2015 for the lower Yellow River,changes in the morphological parameters(width,depth,and cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient)of the main channel are analyzed in this paper.The results show that before the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir(XLDR)from 1986 to 1999,the main channel shrunk continually,with decreasing width and depth.The rate of reduction in its width decreased along the river whereas that of depth increased in the downstream direction.Because the rate of decrease in the width of the main channel was greater than that in channel depth,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient decreased in the sub-reach above Gaocun.By contrast,for the sub-reach below Gaocun,the rate of decrease in channel width was smaller than that in channel depth,and the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient increased.Once the XLDR had begun operation,the main channel eroded continually,and both its width and depth increased from 2000 to 2015.The rate of increase in channel width decreased in the longitudinal direction,and the depth of the main channel in all sub-reaches increased by more than 2 m.Because the rate of increase in the depth of the main channel was clearly larger than that of its width,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient decreased in all sub-reaches.The cross-sectional geometry of the main-channel of the lower Yellow River exhibited different adjustment patterns before and after the XLDR began operation.Before its operation,the main channel mainly narrowed in the transverse direction and silted in the vertical direction in the sub-reach above Aishan;in the sub-reach below Aishan,it primarily silted in the vertical direction.After the XLDR began operation,the main channel adjusted by widening in the transverse direction and deepening in the vertical direction in the sub-reach above Aishan;in the sub-reach below it,the main channel adjusted mainly by deepening in the vertical direction.Compared with the rates of decrease in the width and depth of the main channel during the siltation period,the rate of increase in channel width during the scouring period was clearly smaller while the rate of increase in channel depth was larger.After continual siltation and scouring from 1986 to 2015,the cross-sectional geometry of the main-channel changed from wide and shallow to relatively narrow and deep.The pattern of adjustment in the main channel was closely related to the water and sediment conditions.For the braided reach,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was negatively correlated with discharge and positively correlated with suspended sediment concentration(SSC)during the siltation period.By contrast,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was positively correlated with discharge and negatively correlated with SSC during the scouring period.For the transitional and meandering reaches,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was negatively correlated with discharge and positively correlated with SSC.     

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群研究

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance for urban agglomeration development planning and decision-making.In this paper,we reveal the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban expansion patterns,based on the intensity index of the urban expansion,the differentiation index of the urban expansion,the fractal dimension index,the land urbanization rate,and the center of gravity model,by taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji)urban agglomeration as an example.We then build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model.Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns and by using the center of gravity-GTWR model,we analyze the driving forces of the urban land expansion and summarize the dominant development modes and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)Between 1990 and 2015,the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend,and the peak period was in 2005-2010.Before 2005,high-speed development took place in Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding,and Langfang;after 2005,rapid development was seen in Xingtai and Handan.2)Although the barycenter of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has shown a divergent trend,the local interaction between cities has been enhanced,and the driving forces of urban land expansion have shown a characteristic of spatial spillover.3)The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode,which is made up of three functional cores:the transportation core in the northern part,the economic development core in the central part,and the investment core in the southern part.The synergistic development between each functional core has led to the multi-core development mode.4)The center of gravity-GTWR model combines the analysis of spatial and temporal nonstationarity with urban spatial interaction,and analyzes the urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system.The results of this study show that the model is a feasible approach in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.     

Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.     

成都都市地理之研究

一 成都都市之位置与发育 成都都市之位置,可分三方面讨论;一为几何位置（Location),即都市之定点,乃在相当广大地区中所处於面上之方位,这一点,我们可从整个川西平原说起。川西平原,西起七五○公尺等高线,东至龙泉山麓,面积约一二○○○平方公里,成一东北西南向之斜长地带,南北二端狭窄,中央开展如椭圆形,乐山与绵竹之连线,即椭圆之长轴,龙泉驿灌县分居短轴之二端,双流约当二轴之交,近於椭圆圆心,成都位置,却微偏於东缘。     

Estimation of groundwater residence time and recession rate in watershed of the Loess Plateau

Groundwater residence time is an important indicator of hydrological cycle and essential for water resources development and utilization. In this paper, groundwater residence time in non-flood season, flood season and water year has been determined from daily streamflow hydrograph of ten hydrological stations in Wudinghe River Basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Results have showed that: baseflow recession constant in Wudinghe River Basin ranges from 0.72 to 0.94 with a larger recession rate in flood season than that in non-flood season. Spatially, the recession rate of baseflow in loess area is the biggest, but is the smallest in the sandy area. The half-residence time of groundwater varies from 1.8 to 45.5 days while overall residence time of groundwater is between 34 and 342 days in different sub-basins of the Wudinghe River Basin. The annual average overall residence time of groundwater decreases from 117 days in the upper reaches to 73 days in the lower reaches.     

无定河流域地下水更新时间估算

地下水更新时间是衡量水循环速度的重要指标,是水资源开发利用重要的水文参数.文中考虑1972年以后黄河出现的断流问题.探讨其支流地下水更新时间的估算方法.基于无定河流域10个水文站的日径流观测资料,分汛期、非汛期与全年3个不同时期研究流域的基流消退过程以及地下水的更新时间.研究结果表明:1)无定河流域汛期退水常数变化在0.72～0.89之间,非汛期退水常数变化在0.88～0.96之间,汛期基流消退速度快于非汛期;2)对于无定河流域三个不同的土地类型区而言,无论汛期、非汛期还是全系列,黄土区的基流消退最快,河源区次之,风沙区最为缓慢;3)从地下水更新时间看,11个水文站控制的水文区地下水半更新时间变化在1.8～45.5天之间,地下水全更新时间在34～105天之间,表现出明显的时空分异性.按年平均状态,无定河上游、中游和下游地下水的全更新时间分别为101天、88天和84天,表现出从上游到下游减小的趋势.     

1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断

选取黄河中游区实施水土保持最早的一级支流无定河流域,利用滑动-T、曼-肯德尔和山本等3种突变检测方法相互验证,确定了在受人类活动显著影响下,径流的突变年份为1972年,自此径流平均减少3.55×10⁸m³;基于径流突变前降水与径流的显著相关性,并借助地统计克里格空间插值法,重建1933~2012年无定河流域出口控制水位站天然径流变化序列。采用小波分析法诊断天然径流序列的周期变化,结果显示：天然年径流存在6个不同时间尺度的“丰-枯”演变特征,其平均周期分别对应着35.5、22.2、16.8、12.2、9.3和3.3 a。     

Ecological water demand: the case of the slope systems in the East Liaohe River Basin

The ecological water demand (EWD) is the least water amount required to maintain the structure and the function of the special eco-system and the temporal scale of a study on the EWD must be a season's time. Based on GIS and RS with the source information of hydrological data of 46 hydrological gauges covering 52 years and the digital images of Landsat TM in 1986, 1996 and 2000, the landscape patterns, precipitation and runoff in the East Liaohe River Basin were analyzed. With the result of the above analysis, the spatial and temporal changes of the ecological water demand in the slope systems (EWDSS) of the East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB) were derived. Landscapes in the ELRB are dispersed and strongly disturbed by human actions. The hydrological regime in ELRB has distinct spatial variations. The average annual EWDSS in the ELRB is 504.72 mm (324.08-618.89 mm), and the average EWDSS in the growth season (from May to September) is 88.29% of the year's total EWDSS .The ultimate guaranteeing ratio of the EWDSS in ELRB is 90%. The scarce EWDSS area in the whole year and in the growth season are 60.47% and 74.01% of the entire basin respectively. The trend of scarce EWDSS area is most serious according to the quantity and area of scarce EWDSS regions.     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

生态需水研究:以东辽河流域坡面系统为例

The ecological water demand (EWD) is the least water amount required to maintain the structure and the function of the special eco-system and the temporal scale of a study on the EWD must be a season‘s time. Based on GIS and RS with the source information of hydrological data of 46 hydrological gauges covering 52 years and the digital images of Landsat TM in 1986, 1996 and 2000, the landscape patterns, precipitation and runoff in the East Liaohe River Basin were analyzed. With the result of the above analysis, the spatial and temporal changes of the ecological water demand in the slope systems (EWDSS) of the East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB) were derived. Landscapes in the ELRB are dispersed and strongly disturbed by human actions. The hydrological regime in ELRB has distinct spatial variations. The average annual EWDSS in the ELRB is 504.72 mm (324.08-618.89 mm), and the average EWDSS in the growth season (from May to September) is 88.29% of the year‘s total EWDSS .The ultimate guaranteeing ratio of the EWDSS in ELRB is 90%. The scarce EWDSS area in the whole year and in the growth season are 60.47% and 74.01% of the entire basin respectively. The trend of scarce EWDSS area is most serious according to the quantity and area of scarce EWDSS regions.     

陕西大理河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应

近年来,土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究已成为国际的前沿和重点。在大理河流域,LUCC(包括水土保持措施)对水循环和水量平衡产生了深远影响,该流域LUCC水文效应的研究势在必行。根据研究区1990年代三期土地利用数据分析了LUCC的时空变化特征,采用特征变量时间序列法及降水-径流模型对LUCC水文效应进行了研究。结果表明:流域土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,近10年来,耕地和草地面积有所减少,而林地和建设用地面积持续增加;流域年径流和月径流演化过程均表现出明显的下降趋势;LUCC及水土保持具有减少流域年径流、汛期流量以及增加枯季流量的作用,相对于降水因素,人类活动对流域水文的作用占主导地位;在1990~2000年期间,主要由LUCC引起的年均径流减少量达2616.6×10⁴ m³,占该期间实测减水总量的62.19%。     

无定河流域侵蚀产沙过程对水土保持措施的响应

以黄河中游多沙粗沙区代表性支流无定河为例,研究了降水量变化的背景下水土保持措施对无定河流域侵蚀产沙的影响。从总体上看,年输沙量和年径流量都表现出随时间而减小的趋势,梯田、造林、种草和淤地坝拦沙造地4项水土保持措施面积随时间增大的趋势极其显著。全流域面平均年降水量和汛期 (6~9月) 降水量则略有减少的趋势,但其减少趋势的显著性远低于水土保持措施随时间变化的显著性。产沙模数与梯田、坝地、造林和种草面积的关系,均表现出明显的负相关。对基准期 (1956~1969年) 和措施期 (1970~1996) 进行了比较,结果表明,实施水土保持措施以后,产沙模数、径流系数和汛期径流能够被降水所解释的百分比,分别由69%、80%和77%,下降为26%、31%和54%。说明在后一时期中,水土保持措施起了很大作用,因而降水变化对于产沙模数、径流系数、汛期径流量变化的贡献率大大减小了。以1956~1996年间41年的资料为基础,建立了全沙产沙模数与径流系数、汛期降雨量、最大一日雨量、最大30日累积雨量、梯田林草面积和坝地面积之间的多元回归方程,该方程表明,全沙产沙模数随汛期降雨量、最大一日雨量、最大30日累积雨量的增大而增大,随梯田林草面积和坝地面积的增大而减小, 随径流系数的增大而增大。为了区分人为因素与气候变化对侵蚀产沙变化的影响,采用对数据进行标准化处理之后再进行多元回归分析的方法,来确定相对贡献率。结果表明,降水变化和水土保持措施变化对无定河全沙产沙模数变化的贡献率大致相等,前者占50.3%,后者占49.7%。文中还建立了粗泥沙产沙模数与上述影响因子之间的多元回归方程。     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。     

贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型构建及应用

根据季节径流量相关特性,利用标准径流指数(SRI),通过优选Copula函数和径流量分布函数,构建贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型,并对阿克苏河西大桥水文站进行实证分析。结果表明：① Gamma、Lognormal、Normal、Gumbel、Exponential 5种分布函数中,Gamma、Gumbel能较好拟合夏、秋季径流量;② Gumbel-Hougaard、Clayton、Frank 3种Copula函数中,Clayton能较好联结夏、秋季径流量分布函数;③ 构建模型预报表明,2001~2009年秋季发生干旱概率较低(24%~38%),以轻微、中度干旱为主,而2010年发生干旱的概率极高(95%),发生异常干旱的概率偏高(81%),与实际发生的干旱情况基本一致;④ 贝叶斯框架下构建的Copula模型能准确预报季节水文干旱发生,减少预报的不确定性,为特定区域干旱预报提供了一条新的途径。