中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究

目前,交通行业已成为中国局地大气污染物和温室气体的重要排放来源之一,而且随着交通运输规模的不断扩大,与工业和生活排放相比,交通排放贡献占比呈相对增加趋势.文中构建了"CGE-CIMS联合模型",对中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的局地大气污染物和CO2协同控制效应进行量化评估.结果显示,与BAU情景相比,环境税、碳税、成品...     

Solar-hydrogen electricity generation in the context of global CO2 emission reduction

The relative costs and CO₂ emission reduction benefits of advanced centralized fossil fuel electricity generation, hybrid photovoltaic-fossil fuel electricity generation, and total solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage are compared. Component costs appropriate to the year 2000–2010 time frame are assumed throughout. For low insolation conditions (160 W m^–2 mean annual solar radiation), photovoltaic electricity could cost 5–13 cents/kWh by year 2000–2010, while for high insolation conditions (260 W m^–2) the cost could be 4–9 cents/kWh. Advanced fossil fuel-based power generation should achieve efficiencies of 50% using coal and 55% using natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to conventional coal-based electricity production in industrialized countries. In a solar-fossil fuel hybrid, some electricity would be supplied from solar energy whenever the sun is shining and remaining demand satisfied by fossil fuels. This increases total capital costs but saves on fuel costs. For low insolation conditions, the costs of electricity increases by 0–2 cents/kWh, while the cost of electricity decreases in many cases for high insolation conditions. Solar energy would provide 20% or 30% of electricity demand for the low and high insolation cases, respectively. In the solar-hydrogen energy system, some photovoltaic arrays would provide current electricity demand while others would be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically for storage and later use in fuel cells to generate electricity. Electricity costs from the solar-hydrogen system are 0.2–5.4 cents/kWh greater than from a natural gas power plant, and 1.0–4.5 cents/kWh greater than from coal plant for the cost and performance assumptions adopted here. The carbon tax required to make the solar-hydrogen system competitive with fossil fuels ranges from $70–660/tonne, depending on the cost and performance of system components and the future price of fossil fuels.Leakage of hydrogen from storage into the atmosphere, and the eventual transport of a portion of the leaked hydrogen to the stratosphere, would result in the formation of stratospheric water vapor. This could perturb stratospheric ozone amounts and contribute to global warming. Order-of-magnitude calculations indicate that, for a leakage rate of 0.5% yr^–1 of total hydrogen production -which might be characteristic of underground hydrogen storage - the global warming effect of solarhydrogen electricity generation is comparable to that of a natural gas-solar energy hybrid system after one year of emission, but is on the order of 1% the impact of the hybrid system at a 100 year time scale. Impacts on stratospheric ozone are likely to be minuscule.     

The potential for short-rotation woody crops to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions

Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) could potentially displace fossil fuels and thus mitigate CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere. To determine how much fossil fuel SRWC might displace in the United States and what the associated fossil carbon savings might be, a series of assumptions must be made. These assumptions concern the net SRWC biomass yields per hectare (after losses); the amount of suitable land dedicated to SRWC production; wood conversion efficiencies to electricity or liquid fuels; the energy substitution properties of various fuels; and the amount of fossil fuel used in growing, harvesting, transporting, and converting SRWC biomass. Assuming the current climate, present production, and conversion technologies and considering a conservative estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (14 × 10⁶ ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 33.2 to 73.1 × 10⁶ Mg of fossil carbon releases, 3–6% of the current annual U.S. emissions. The carbon mitigation potential per unit of land is larger with the substitution of SRWC for coal-based electricity production than for the substitution of SRWC-derived ethanol for gasoline. Assuming current climate, predicted conversion technology advancements, an optimistic estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (28 × 10⁶ ha), and an optimistic average estimate of net SRWC yields (22.4 dry Mg/ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 148 to 242 × 10⁶ Mg of annual fossil fuel carbon releases. Under this scenario, the carbon mitigation potential of SRWC-based electricity production would be equivalent to about 4.4% of current global fossil fuel emissions and 20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions.Research sponsored by the Biofuels Systems Division, U.S. Department of Energy, under contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Sciences Division Publication number 3952.     

Water Quality Co-Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S. Agriculture

This study develops first-order estimates of water quality co-effects of terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offset strategies in U.S. agriculture by linking a national level agricultural sector model (ASMGHG) to a national level water quality model (NWPCAM). The simulated policy scenario considers GHG mitigation incentive payments of $25 and $50 per tonne, carbon equivalent to landowners for reducing emissions or enhancing the sequestration of GHG through agricultural and land-use practices. ASMGHG projects that these GHG price incentives could induce widespread conversion of agricultural to forested lands, along with alteration of tillage practices, crop mix on land remaining in agriculture, and livestock management. This study focuses on changes in cropland use and management. The results indicate that through agricultural cropland about 60 to 70 million tonnes of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) emissions can be mitigated annually in the U.S. These responses also lead to a 2% increase in aggregate national water quality, with substantial variation across regions. Such GHG mitigation activities are found to reduce annual nitrogen loadings into the Gulf of Mexico by up to one half of the reduction goals established by the national Watershed Nutrient Task Force for addressing the hypoxia problem.     

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.     

Unleakable carbon†

Unleakable carbon, or the uncombusted methane and carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuel systems, constitutes a potentially large and heretofore unrecognized factor in determining use of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves. Advances in extraction technology have encouraged a shift to natural gas, but the advantage of fuel switching depends strongly on mitigating current levels of unleakable carbon, which can be substantial enough to offset any climate benefit relative to oil or coal. To illustrate the potential warming effect of methane emissions associated with utilizable portions of our remaining natural gas reserves, we use recent data published in peer-reviewed journals to roughly estimate the impact of these emissions. We demonstrate that unless unleakable carbon is curtailed, up to 59–81% of our global natural gas reserves must remain underground if we hope to limit warming to 2°C from 2010 to 2050. Successful climate change mitigation depends on improved quantification of current levels of unleakable carbon and a determination of acceptable levels of these emissions within the context of international climate change agreements.

Policy relevance

It is imperative that companies, investors, and world leaders considering capital expenditures and policies towards continued investment in natural gas fuels do so with a complete understanding of how dependent the ultimate climate benefits are upon increased regulation of unleakable carbon, the uncombusted carbon-based gases associated with fossil fuel systems, otherwise referred to as ‘fugitive’, ‘leaked’, ‘vented’, ‘flared’, or ‘unintended’ emissions. Continued focus on combustion emissions alone, or unburnable carbon, undermines the importance of assessing the full climate impacts of fossil fuels, leading many stakeholders to support near-term mitigation strategies that rely on fuel switching from coal and oil to cleaner burning natural gas. The current lack of transparent accounting of unleakable carbon represents a significant gap in the understanding of what portions of the Earth’s remaining global fossil fuel reserves can be utilized while still limiting global warming to 2°C. Successful climate change mitigation requires that stakeholders confront the issue of both unburnable and unleakable carbon when considering continued investment in and potential expansion of natural gas systems as part of a climate change solution.     

How long is coal's future?

Nearly all scenarios for future U.S. energy supply systems show heavy dependence on coal. The magnitude depends on assumptions as to reliance on nuclear fission, degree of electrification, and rate of GNP growth, and ranges from 700 million tons to 2300 million tons per year. However, potential climate change resulting from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may prevent coal from playing a major role. The carbon in the carbon dioxide produced from fossil fuels each year is about 1/10 the net primary production by terrestrial plants, but the fossil fuel production has been growing exponentially at 4.3% per year. Observed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to 330 ppm in 1974 - in 1900, before much fossil fuel was burned, it was about 290–295 ppm. Slightly over one-half the CO₂ released from fossil fuels is accounted for by the increase observed in the atmosphere; at present growth rates the quantities are doubling every 15–18 years. Atmospheric models suggest a global warming of about 2 K if the concentration were to rise to two times its pre-1900 value - enough to change the global climate in major (but largely unknown) ways. With the current rate of increase in fossil fuel use, the atmospheric concentration should reach these levels by about 2030. A shift to coal as a replacement for oil and gas gives more carbon dioxide per unit of energy; thus if energy growth continues with a concurrent shift toward coal, high concentrations can be reached somewhat earlier. Even projections with very heavy reliance on non-fossil energy (Neihaus) after 2000 show atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reaching 475 ppm.First presented to the symposium, Coal Science and our National Expectations, Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, Massachusetts, February 20, 1976.     

Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis

This paper uses the OECD’s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENVLinkages to examine the mid-term economic consequences and the optimal energy supply mix adjustments of a simultaneous implementation of i) a progressive fossil fuel subsidy reform in emerging and developing economies and ii) a progressive phase out of nuclear energy, mostly affecting OECD countries, China and Russia. The analysis is then transposed in the context of climate change mitigation to depict the corresponding implications for CO2 emissions, to assess the interactions between the two energy policies, and to derive how the associated costs are affected by the different policies. The phase-out scenario projects a nuclear capacity halved by 2035 as compared to the Baseline, corresponding to $120 billion losses in value-added of the nuclear industry for that year. The nuclear phase-out leaves GDP and real household consumption marginally affected in energy importing countries. A multilateral subsidy reform is more likely to affect international fossil fuel prices and alter patterns of global energy use. The fossil fuel subsidy reform, when implemented together with nuclear phase-out, more than offsets negative consequences on household consumption but still leads to a decrease in global CO2 emissions. The combined policies help save the equivalent of current energy consumption in the Middle East. Combining a climate policy, an effective fossil fuel subsidy reform, even with a lower nuclear share in the power mix, brings about multiple benefits to OECD countries which reduce their energy bill and achieve large climate change mitigation at lower cost.     

Carbon reduction in the real world: how the UK will surpass its Kyoto obligations

Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity — carbon emissions per unit of GDP — has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK’s Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government’s target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience.     

Economic Impacts of Carbon Charges on U.S. Agriculture

We evaluate the farm sector impacts that would result from implementing a system of carbon based charges on energy intensive inputs. Our emphasis is on production costs, crop acreage, commodity prices, input use, farm income, and farm welfare. The charges considered – $14, $100, and$200 per metric ton of carbon – were developed from the literature and areconsistent with reducing U.S. GHG emissions to a 1990 minus 7% level by 2010 underdifferent levels of carbon trading and developing country participation. Impacts are relatively modest for a charge of $14 per mt. Relative to baseline conditions, producer and consumer surplus decline 0.02 and 0.03 percent, respectively. Across crop and livestock commodities, price increases and production declines are all less than 1.0%. As the carbon charge increases, farm sector impacts become more pronounced and determination of whether the aggregate effect is significant or not becomes more subjective.     

Carbon reduction in the real world: how the UK will surpass its Kyoto obligations

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity—carbon emissions per unit of GDP—has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.

Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.

The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK's Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience.     

Creating Carbon Offsets in Agriculture through No-Till Cultivation: A Meta-Analysis of Costs and Carbon Benefits

Carbon terrestrial sinks are often seen as a low-cost alternative to fuel switching and reduced fossil fuel use for lowering atmospheric CO₂. To determine whether this is true for agriculture, one meta-regression analysis (52 studies, 536 observations) examines the costs of switching from conventional tillage to no-till, while another (51 studies, 374 observations) compares carbon accumulation under the two practices. Costs per ton of carbon uptake are determined by combining the two results. The viability of agricultural carbon sinks is found to vary by region and crop, with no-till representing a low-cost option in some regions (costs of less than $10 per tC), but a high-cost option in others (costs of 100–$400 per tC). A particularly important finding is that no-till cultivation may store no carbon at all if measurements are taken at sufficient depth. In some circumstances no-till cultivation may yield a triple dividend of carbon storage, increased returns and reduced soil erosion, but in many others creating carbon offset credits in agricultural soils is not cost effective because reduced tillage practices store little or no carbon.     

Leaking methane from natural gas vehicles: Implications for transportation policy in the greenhouse era

A model of the U.S. automobile market is used to test the role that natural gas vehicles (NGVs) might play in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Since natural gas (primarily methane) emits less CO₂ per unit of energy than petroleum products, NGVs are an obvious pathway to lower CO₂ emissions. High-and low-demand scenarios are used to forecast the emissions from unrestricted growth and a modest program of conservation, respectively. Based on these scenarios, a reference scenario is developed that projects a possible future path of automobile use and efficiency. It is found that without a dramatic increase in automobile use, fuel consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from automobiles in the United States will probably decrease in the future, provided that efficiency continues to improve at modest rates. In theory, NGVs can help shift emissions even further down.A second objective is to quantify the role that leaking methane might play in offsetting some of the greenhouse advantages of NGVs. To do this, a simple atmospheric chemistry model is applied to the reference scenario; several leak rates and feedback factors are used to test the sensitivity of the projected green-house forcing from now until 2050. Committed warming beyond 2050 is not included, and the results should be interpreted with that in mind.It is highly unlikely that switching automobiles from gasoline to natural gas will appreciably lower future greenhouse forcing. Constraints on vehicle miles travelled as well as continued improvements in vehicle efficiency will make a much larger contribution towards controlling global warming.     

基于CGE模型的碳税政策模拟——以广东省为例

科学设置碳税政策是控制二氧化碳排放量和推动能源结构优化的重要基础,文中以广东省为例,利用2012年的广东省投入产出表、广东统计年鉴、广东财政年鉴、中国统计年鉴等数据构建社会核算矩阵,通过构建静态的可计算一般均衡模型（CGE),进行区域的碳税政策模拟,分析不同程度的碳税税率对化石能源消费量及各宏观经济变量的影响。结果表明：征收碳税对减排效果有明显的正向作用,当碳税水平为60元/t时,广东省减排效果为3.90%;在碳税定价上,60元/t较为合适;减排贡献率最高的化石能源为煤炭,其次为石油,最低为天然气;碳税冲击下能源消费量下降,最明显的为煤炭,其次是火电;碳税冲击也能显著减少各部门对煤炭的消费量;碳税政策对广东省GDP和社会福利有负向作用,但对总体碳排放强度有正向作用。未来广东省应严格控制煤炭消费量,同时对火电部门进行低碳改造。     

Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel

Many have recently speculated that natural gas might become a “bridge fuel”, smoothing a transition of the global energy system from fossil fuels to zero carbon energy by temporarily offsetting the decline in coal use. Others have contended that such a bridge is incompatible with oft-discussed climate objectives and that methane leakage from natural gas system may eliminate any advantage that natural gas has over coal. Yet global climate stabilization scenarios where natural gas provides a substantial bridge are generally absent from the literature, making study of gas as a bridge fuel difficult. Here we construct a family of such scenarios and study some of their properties. In the context of the most ambitious stabilization objectives (450 ppm CO₂), and absent carbon capture and sequestration, a natural gas bridge is of limited direct emissions-reducing value, since that bridge must be short. Natural gas can, however, play a more important role in the context of more modest but still stringent objectives (550 ppm CO₂), which are compatible with longer natural gas bridges. Further, contrary to recent claims, methane leakage from natural gas operations is unlikely to strongly undermine the climate benefits of substituting gas for coal in the context of bridge fuel scenarios.     

The socio-political context for deploying carbon capture and storage in China and the U.S

Together, the U.S. and China emit roughly 40% of world's greenhouse gas emissions, and these nations have stated their desire to reduce absolute emissions (U.S.) or reduce the carbon intensity of the economy (China). However, both countries are dependent on coal for a large portion of their energy needs, which is projected to continue over the next several decades. They also have large amounts of coal resources, coal-dependent electricity production, and in China's case, extensive use of coal in the industrial sector, making any shift from coal socio-politically difficult. Both nations could use carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to simultaneously decrease greenhouse gas emissions and continue the use of domestic coal resources; however, the socio-political context for CCS deployment differs substantially between the two countries and potentially makes large-scale CCS deployment challenging. Here, we examine and compare the political and institutional contexts shaping CCS policy and CCS deployment, both for initial pilot projects and for the creation of large-scale CCS technology deployment, and analyze how the socio-political context for CCS in China and the United States aligns with national climate, energy security, and economic priorities.     

The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

基于CGE模型的电力低碳转型速度调控策略研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例

为探讨粤港澳大湾区实现碳中和及电力低碳转型过程的供应安全,构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计51种情景模拟各类型发电量的年均变化幅度,以全社会福利最大化为评价指标,研究煤电退役到保底容量、煤电完全退役和气电达峰容量的最优时间节点和发展速度。结果表明：2020年煤电发电量以年均降低66亿kW∙h幅度退役到2032年保底容量,再以年均降低40亿kW∙h幅度在2045年实现完全退役;气电发电量从2020年起以年均增长61亿kW∙h的幅度在2038年达到峰值,然后以年均51亿kW∙h幅度退役到2050年保底容量1323亿kW∙h;进一步依据2020—2050年本地总发电量增速不变得到非化石电力增长速度,此种煤电、气电和非化石电力发展速度组合的经济性最优。相比基准情景,优选出的电力转型组合情景可累积促进化石能源消费量降低1.1亿tce,碳排放降低2.8亿t CO₂,电力部门增加值增长238亿元,其他部门增加值增长172亿元。     

Potential Carbon Flux from Timber Harvests and Management in the Context of a Global Timber Market

This paper presents carbon flux estimates arising from the effect of increasing demand on harvests and management of industrial forests in a global timber market. Results are presented for specific regions and the globe. Harvests and management of forests are predicted to store an additional 184 Tg (1 Tg = 10¹² grams) of carbon per year in forests and wood products over the next 50 years, with a range of 108 to 251 Tg per year. Although harvests in natural boreal and tropical forest regions will cause carbon releases, new plantation establishment in subtropical emerging regions more than offsets these losses. Unlike many existing studies, these results suggest that harvests and management of North American forests will lead to carbon emissions from that region over the next 50 years. The results are quantitatively sensitive to the assumed growth in demand although the results are qualitatively similar in the sensitivity analysis.     

基于多区域投入产出模型中美贸易隐含能源、碳排放的测算

采用多区域投入产出模型（MRIO）,利用欧盟资助开发的世界投入产出表和环境账户数据,测算了1995—2009年中国与美国的增加值贸易规模及净值,在此基础上利用环境账户中的能源消耗和碳排放数据测算出中美外贸隐含能源和隐含碳排放总体水平及其行业结构。研究表明：1995—2009年,中国对美国的增加值出口保持持续增长的态势,尤其是在中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）后,但随后受2008年全球经济危机的影响,中国增加值出口规模有所减小;相比于美国,中国单位增加值能耗和碳排放水平较高,从而导致较大规模的隐含能源和隐含碳出口,长期处于隐含能源和隐含碳净输出国地位,且净输出规模呈现出上升的趋势;从行业结构来看,电力、燃气及水的供应业等能源行业是中国出口隐含能源和隐含碳排放的主要行业来源。