淮北地震台中强震面波震级偏差修正

整理校正淮北地震台测震编目资料面波震级MS4．5及以上中强震震例,以中国地震台网中心（简称CENC）发布的震级参数作为标准震级,分析CENC震级与淮北地震台单台分析结果中的发震时刻、震中经纬度、震级、方位角、震中距等参数之间线性相关关系,建立CENC震级关于单台分析结果的多元线性回归方程,用于淮北地震台记录的中强震面波震级偏差修正。检验结果显示,该修正方法有效、可信。     

基于SWAT模型的淮河上游流域设计洪水修订

变化环境下洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,引发基于统计原理计算的设计洪水可靠性下降,亟需开展非一致性条件下的设计洪水修订研究.以淮河上游流域为研究区域,运用Pettitt检验法和滑动t检验法综合检测年最大洪峰流量序列突变点,在此基础上,采用SWAT分布式水文模型对变异前的洪峰与洪量序列进行还现,利用径流深的模拟结果修订设计洪...     

地震计线性误差精确测试

利用同步测试标准地震数据采集器标定电流的地震计线性误差测试方法,避免了标定信号输出电流波动对地震计线性误差测试的影响,按DB/T 21—2007规定的方法进行数据处理,并判定结果是否符合DB/T 22—2007的要求。实际测试表明,该方法测试精度可以达到0.000 5%,满足测试线性偏差小于0.01%的需要,且操作简单,无额外设备要求,可行性高,可在固定地震台站、野外等条件下使用,具有较大的应用价值。     

Discussion on the Precise Relocation and Seismo-Tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Earthquake

Based on relocating the Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake sequence which occurred on November 26, 2005 in Jiangxi Province with the double-difference （DD） algorithm and master event technique, the paper discusses the focal mechanism of the main shock （MsS.7） and the probable seismo-tectonics. The precise relocation results indicate that the average horizontal error is 0.31kin in a EW direction and 0.40kin in a NS direction, and the average depth error is 0.48kin. The focal depths vary from 8kin to 14kin, with the predominant distribution at 10kin - 12kin. The epicenter of the main shock is relocated to be 29.69^oN, 115.74^oE and the focal depth is about 10.Skin. Combining the predominant distribution of the earthquake sequence, the focal mechanism of the main shock and the tectonic conditions of N-E- and NW-strike faults growth in the seismic region, we infer that the main shock of the earthquake sequence was caused by a NW striking buried fault in the Rnichang basin. The nature of seismic faults needs to be further explored.     

基于区域水准和跨断层资料分析云南地区地壳形变

为了获取云南地区现今地壳形变和断层活动特征,收集了云南地区1992—2016年的2期精密水准观测资料,采用基于GNSS连续站垂直形变资料约束的平差方法,对区域整体地壳垂直形变特征进行了分析,结果显示滇西北区域地壳整体表现为隆升,垂向速率为2—3mm/a,滇南区域显示地壳沉降速率为-1—-2mm/a,并在下关—永胜和思茅—景谷一带存在地壳形变高梯度带。收集了该地区30多年的跨断层场地观测资料,计算了所跨断层的三维活动量,得出了断层现今活动状态和异常特征,认为滇西北和滇中南地区的场地多数表现出异常活动的现象,其中楚雄、剑川和永胜的监测断层现今表现出与地质背景相反的走滑和拉张特征,峨山、建水和通海场地所处断层在张压性质上与地质背景相反。结合区域水准和跨断层观测分析结果,从“面”和“线”上得出滇西北和滇中南地区存在地壳形变和断层活动异常,构造应力积累较高的结果,加之缺震背景显著,认为应关注该区域中强地震的危险性。     

快速精密星历替代精密星历定位的初步研究

由于GPS精密定位所需的IGS精密星历要在两周以后才能得到,因而利用两天后即可得到的快速精密星历、12小时后得到的超快速精密星历代替精密星历是GPS应用于地震短临预测的一个重要条件。本文利用北京市全球定位综合应用服务系统中五个GPS连续观测站一年半的数据,分别用三种星历进行精密定位计算,得到了小规模网中快速精密星历一般可以代替精密星历进行精密定位计算的结果。     

地震监测中环境因素对精密水准观测影响分析

区域精密水准测量在地震监测中发挥了重要的作用,但是由于其作业范围广、观测周期长,容易受外界复杂多变的环境因素影响。目前对环境因素的影响分析大多是定性描述,缺乏实验观测数据的支撑。针对这一问题,选取大约2000km区域精密水准观测数据,结合观测环境资料,统计分析不同环境因素对观测成果的影响程度,并提出了相应的改进措施。     

联合串行式和钟摆式卫星编队精确建立下一代HIP-3S地球重力场模型

第一,基于扰动星间距离观测量对地球重力场反演精度的敏感性优于星间距离观测值的特性,本文构建了新型扰动星间距离法（DIRM）.第二,有效检验了下一代HIP-3S编队的轨道稳定性,结果表明：HIP-3S编队较稳定,有利于提高地球重力场反演精度.第三,基于扰动星间距离法,分别利用当前GRACE-2S串行式双星编队和下一代HIP-3S复合式三星编队精确反演了120阶地球重力场,在120阶处累计大地水准面精度为2.271×10^-1 m和1.923×10^-3 m,结果表明：HIP-3S复合式三星编队有利于建立下一代高精度和高空间分辨率的地球重力场模型.

     

成都地磁台的观测与评估

通过对成都地磁台的仪器配置、误差来源、资料质量等方面进行综合分析，结果表明．成都地磁台的观测质量稳定，资料连续可靠。成都地磁台的观测能够正确反映成都地区地磁场的变化特征。     

反应谱控制选波的地震动时频非平稳特性差异性分析

时程分析法中地震波的选取关乎结构抗震分析结果是否准确,基于规范反应谱进行选波分析,研究不同选波控制指标下所选出的地震波在时域、频域等方面的特性及误差大小,并进行工程验证。结果表明:采用拟合反应谱选波方法所选的地震动在时、频域上特性差异较大,是导致时程分析法中结构响应差异性较大的主要原因,且选用更为严格的控制指标并不能有效降低所选出地震动时频非平稳之间的差异性。     

Thermal characterization of the Vulcano fumarole field

Ground-based thermal infrared surveys can contribute to complete heat budget inventories for fumarole fields. However, variations in atmospheric conditions, plume condensation and mixed-pixel effects can complicate vent area and temperature measurements. Analysis of vent temperature frequency distributions can be used, however, to characterise and quantify thermal regions within a field. We examine this using four thermal infrared thermometer and thermal image surveys of the Vulcano Fossa fumarole field (Italy) during June 2004 and July 2005. These surveys show that regions occupied by low temperature vents are characterised by distributions that are tightly clustered around the mean (i.e., the standard deviation is low), highly peaked (positive kurtosis) and skewed in the low temperature direction (negative skewness). This population is associated with wet fumaroles, where boiling controls maximum temperature to cause a narrow distribution with a mode at 90–100°C. In contrast, high temperature vent regions have distributions that are widely spread about the mean (i.e., the standard deviation is high), relatively flat (negative kurtosis) and skewed in the high temperature direction (positive skewness). In this dry case, fumaroles are water-free so that maximum temperatures are not fixed by boiling. As a result greater temperature variation is possible. We use these results to define two vent types at Vulcano on the basis of their thermal characteristics: (1) concentrated (localized) regions of high temperature vents, and (2) dispersed low temperature vents. These occur within a much larger region of diffuse heat emission across which surfaces are heated by steam condensation, the heat from which causes elevated surface temperatures. For Vulcano's lower fumarole zone, high and low temperature vents occupied total areas of 3 and 6 m², respectively, and occurred within a larger (430 m²) vent-free zone of diffuse heat emission. For this lower zone, we estimate that 21–43 × 10³ W of heat was lost by diffuse heat emission. A further 4.5 × 10³ W was lost by radiation from high temperature vents, and 6.5 × 10³ W from low temperature vents. Thus, radiative heat losses from high and low temperature vents within Vulcano's lower fumarole zone respectively account for 10% and 15% of the total heat lost from this zone. This shows that radiation from open vents can account for a non-trivial portion of the total fumarole field heat budget.     

基于残余星间速度法精确和快速反演下一代GRACE Follow-On地球重力场

基于新型残余星间速度法（RIRM）反演了120阶GRACE Follow-On地球重力场. 第一,由于GPS定轨精度相对较低,通过将激光干涉测距仪的高精度残余星间速度（测量精度10^-7 m·s^-1）引入残余轨道速度差分矢量的视线分量构建了新型RIRM观测方程. 第二,基于2点、4点、6点和8点RIRM公式对比论证了最优的插值点数. 如果相关系数和采样间隔一定,随着插值点数的增加,卫星观测值的信号量被有效加强,而卫星观测值的误差量也同时增加. 因此,6点RIRM公式是提高下一代地球重力场精度的较优选择. 第三,相关系数对地球重力场精度的影响在不同频段表现为不同特性. 随着相关系数的逐渐增大,地球长波重力场精度逐渐降低,而地球中长波重力场精度逐渐升高. 第四,基于6点RIRM公式,通过30天观测数据和采样间隔5 s,分别利用星间速度和残余星间速度观测值,在120阶次处反演下一代GRACE Follow-On累计大地水准面精度为1.638×10^-3 m和1.396×10^-3 m. 研究结果表明：（1）残余星间速度观测量较星间速度对地球重力场反演精度更敏感;（2）GRACE Follow-On地球重力场精度较GRACE至少高10倍.     

Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies

Abstract

The collocation technique has become a popular tool in oceanography and hydrology for estimating the error variances of different data sources such as in situ sensors, models and remote sensing products. It is also possible to determine calibration constants, for example to account for an off-set between the data sources. So far, the temporal autocorrelation structure of the errors has not been studied, although it is known that it has detrimental effects on the results of the collocation technique, in particular when calibration constants are also determined. This paper shows how the (triple) collocation estimators can be adapted to retrieve the autocovariance functions; the statistical properties as well as the structural deficencies are described. The coupling between the autocorrelation of the error and the estimation of calibration constants is studied in detail, due to its importance for analysing temporal changes. In soil moisture applications, such time variations can be induced, for example, by seasonal changes in the vegetation cover, which affect both models and remote sensing products. The limitations of the proposed technique associated with these considerations are analysed using remote sensing and in situ soil moisture data. The variability of the inter-sensor calibration and the autocovariance are shown to be closely related to temporal patterns of the data.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Zwieback, S., Dorigo, W., and Wagner, W., 2013. Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1729–1747.     

碳酸盐团簇同位素约束下塔中隆起奥陶系热历史

碳酸盐团簇同位素是近年来兴起的一种新型古温标, 其有效地解决了碳酸盐岩沉积盆地缺乏常用古温标的现状, 对于沉积盆地热史恢复具有重要意义.本文采集了塔中地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩钻井取芯样品, 利用一阶近似模型模拟了塔中隆起碳酸盐团簇同位素温度(T_Δ47)热演化路径, 并结合等效镜质体反射率约束了塔中隆起的热历史.塔中隆起大地热流自奥陶纪到现今总体呈降低趋势, 自60~70 mW·m^-2降低至40~50 mW·m^-2, 二叠纪由于火成岩入侵造成热流短暂升高至60~70 mW·m^-2.模拟结果认为, 北部斜坡带及潜山构造带受火成岩影响显著, 北部斜坡带及潜山构造带在二叠纪最高温度分别达到160~170 ℃及180~190 ℃; 而塔中南缘未受影响, 中生代或者现今为最高温度130~140 ℃.总的来说, 碳酸盐团簇同位素在热史领域的研究目前还处于探索阶段, 未来有望在重排规律、T_Δ47影响因素以及模型理论方面有待进一步完善, 团簇同位素也将在热史领域的研究中产生愈加重大的影响力.

     

Long-term forecasting of the extreme eruptions of Etna

Until now, the widely used predictive long-term hazard models of the most intense natural phenomena do not yield predictions other than the mean return period. To achieve less uncertain estimates, an alternative model is proposed. The analysis of the eruptions of Etna from 1868 to 1993 shows that the time interval D_t between consecutive large eruptions is clearly random, whereas the total volume of tephra ejected during D_t is roughly constant. Taking into account the above evidence, the model yields significant long-term forecasts both of the time and of the intensity of future large eruptions. The large volume of tephra ejected by the volcano since the last intense eruption in 1980 allows the model to estimate that the next large eruption will not to take place soon.     

瑞典圆弧法水平条分模型的误差分析

根据瑞典条分法忽略条间力的假设,建立3类边坡破坏模式的计算模型,以水平土条划分为依据得到积分形式下的边坡稳定性解析式。与5个算例对比表明,水平条分的积分解形式简单,计算的稳定性系数偏小,与Bishop法最大偏差不超过13%,说明水平条分可获得较为安全的稳定性系数。水平条分法结果偏小主要原因在于没有考虑条间力,土条只满足力矩的平衡,而不能保证力的平衡。水平土条周身力与竖直土条不同,重力产生的下滑力与抗力到圆心的距离不同,因此在不满足力平衡的基础上会放大下滑力矩,导致整体稳定性系数偏小,由此可知水平条分法是稳定性系数的下限解。水平条分法的优势在于计算区间少,对竖向划分层次多的土体适用,因此在评价边坡稳定性方面仍具有实用价值。     

建筑物震害直接经济损失评定的误差分析

本文概述了引起震害损失评定误差的主要因素。通过实际震害评定资料，定量分析了震害损失评估中各因素形成误差数值的大小。采用以采样平均相对误差或采样均方误差及损失值相对误差来评估震害评定质量的方法，并通过分析给出综合衡量评定精度的量化指标，对震害经济损失评定准确度进行评估。     

A new approach to develop the Raman carbonaceous material geothermometer for low‐grade metamorphism using peak width

The Raman spectra of carbonaceous material (CM) from 19 metasediment samples collected from six widely separated areas of Southwest Japan and metamorphosed at temperatures from 165 to 655°C show systematic changes with metamorphic temperature that can be classified into four types: low‐grade CM (c. 150–280°C), medium‐grade CM (c. 280–400°C), high‐grade CM (c. 400–650°C), and well‐crystallized graphite (> c. 650°C). The Raman spectra of low‐grade CM exhibit features typical of amorphous carbon, in which several disordered bands (D‐band) appear in the first‐order region. In the Raman spectra of medium‐grade CM, the graphite band (G‐band) can be recognized and several abrupt changes occur in the trends for several band parameters. The observed changes indicate that CM starts to transform from amorphous carbon to crystallized graphite at around 280°C, and this transformation continues until 400°C. The G‐band becomes the most prominent peak at high‐grade CM suggesting that the CM structure is close to that of well‐crystallized graphite. In the highest temperature sample of 655°C, the Raman spectra of CM show a strong G‐band with almost no recognizable D‐band, implying the CM grain is well‐crystallized graphite. In the Raman spectra of low‐ to medium‐grade CM, comparisons of several band parameters with the known metamorphic temperature show inverse correlations between metamorphic temperature and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the D1‐ and D2‐bands. These correlations are calibrated as new Raman CM geothermometers, applicable in the range of c. 150–400°C. Details of the methodology for peak decomposition of Raman spectra from the low to medium temperature range are also discussed with the aim of establishing a robust and user‐friendly geothermometer.     

Investigation of the Calibration Function of Local Earthquake Magnitude （ ML ） in the Fujian-Taiwan Region

The author carefully selected earthquakes with M_L=4.0～5.0, 215 occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region. The attenuation characteristics of maximum displacement recorded by the Fujian digital network have been obtained by multi-analysis as follows:logA=2.07 231.1/Δ (150km≤Δ≤650km) And the corresponding expression of calibration function is, R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01) (150km≤Δ≤650km) Then, the author determined the magnitude and its error with the data from the Fujian network using the calibration function brought forward in 1997 and the above formula for 790 earthquakes occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region from September 1997 ～ August 2005. The result indicates that the average error of the network is 0.20 with the former and 0.18 with the latter. The average error is 0.13 with the latter with station correction. Compared with the magnitude determined by Taiwan seismologists, the magnitude value with the former is lower by 0.50 on average and that with the latter is higher by 0.08 on average.     

1999年海城-岫岩地震序列的精准定位

1999年11月29日,北京时间12点10分39秒(04:10:39 UTC)在我国辽宁海城-岫岩地区发生了一次Ms5.4地震.这次地震是继1975年2月4日海城Ms7.3地震之后该地区发生的震级最大的一次地震.区域性的辽宁数字地震台网记录了这一序列的前震、主震与 余震.本文运用该台网的记录资料,用双差法对海城-岫岩地...