地震电磁辐射研究的新进展

本文简要评述了近年来震前电磁辐射研究的新进展和发展方向,以及今后的重点研究课题.已取得的初步结果表明,新发现的震前电磁辐射现象是一种客观存在,并可能是具有良好应用前景的短临前兆.鉴于地震电磁辐射机制及其空间耦合与时间变化过程的复杂性,必须深入探索电磁辐射前兆现象与孕震过程之间的内在联系,使观测工作与理论研究很好地结合起来,并结合多种前兆进行综合诊断.      

The earthquake-related disturbances in ionosphere and project of the first China seismo-electromagnetic satellite

Based on the case studies and statistical analysis of earthquake-related ionospheric disturbances mainly from DEMETER satellite, ground-based GPS and ionosounding data, this paper summarizes the statistical characteristics of earthquake-related ionospheric disturbances, including electromagnetic emissions, plasma perturbations and variation of energetic particle flux. According to the main results done by Chinese scientists, fusing with the existed study from global researches, seismo-ionospheric disturbances usually occurred a few days or hours before earthquake occurrence. Paralleling to these case studies, lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere (LAI) coupling mechanisms are checked and optimized. A thermo-electric model was proposed to explain the seismo-electromagnetic effects before earthquakes. A propagation model was put forward to explain the electromagnetic waves into the ionosphere. According to the requirement of earthquake prediction research, China seismo-electromagnetic satellite, the first space-based platform of Chinese earthquake stereoscopic observation system, is proposed and planned to launch at about the end of 2014. It focuses on checking the LAI model and distinguishing earthquake-related ionospheric disturbance. The preliminary design for the satellite will adopt CAST-2000 platform with eight payloads onboard. It is believed that the satellite will work together with the ground monitoring network to improve the capability to capture seismo-electromagnetic information, which is beneficial for earthquake monitoring and prediction researches.     

The application of the method of reconstruction a phase space with higher dimensions to the study of seismic processes and earthquake prediction

The method of reconstructing a phase space with higher dimensions can be applied to analysing the observaiton data for studying the dynamic behavior of seismic processes and earthquake prediction. It is found that seismic processes are chaotic. So earthquakes could be determinately predicted only within the predictable period. Here, some related problems (e.g. several primary parameters and the relations among them, the relation between the quality of used data and analytical results, the relation between a reductive process of the fractal dimensions and earthquake prediction and so on) are discussed. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 470–476, 1993. This study was sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation under Contract NO. 9000007.     

A model of nonuniform fracture system for Langcang-Gengma earthquake sequence and elasto-plastic computation method

Based on the observation data, it is found that the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is resulting from the propagation of a nonuniform fracture system in which the lengths and strikes of fractures are different from each other, the stress field and medium condition around fractures are also heterogeneous. Therefore, a mechanical model simulating suitably the fracture processes of the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is suggested in this paper. The fracture criterions and computation method for elastic fracture and elasto-plastic fracture are studied. The stress intensity factor, strain energy release rate and J-integral are evaluated respectively. The forward and inverse method jointing a variety of observation data to determine the earthquake fracture processes is also developed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 463–471, 1992. This project was sponsored by the Chinese Jonit Seismological Science Foundation.     

地震电磁卫星电离层扰动研究进展综述

本文总结了国内外关于地震电离层扰动现象研究的主要进展, 主要介绍了法国DEMETER卫星及其相关的统计研究和震例研究成果, 总结了目前地震电离层扰动前兆震例研究的一般步骤, 介绍了地震孕育过程中产生的电磁异常信息向电离层传播的可能途径, 包括化学途径、 声学途径和电磁途径。 大量的研究成果表明地震电离层异常的存在, 在地震发生前几个小时至几天或几个月电离层扰动被探测到, 但是地震电离层扰动前兆能否作为地震预报方法, 还有许多需要深入研究的问题。 本文提出了地震电离层研究需要解决的几个重要问题。     

On the analysis of self-similarity of earthquake sequence and its application in earthquake prediction

This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM _max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993.     

A visco-elastoplastic model for fault rocks and its application to earthquake research

In the light of the rheological properties of crustal rocks and some features of earthquakes, a rheological model for fault rocks is suggested in the paper and the possibility of applying the suggested model to the study of earthquake mechanism is discussed. The results show that it is reasonable to take the suggested model as a physical simplification of fault rocks and to apply it to the numerical calculation and simulation of 2-D problems. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 129–136, 1992.     

The 1990 Zaisang earthquake of magnitude 7.3 in Kazakstan

The Zaisang earthquake (M _s=7.3) on June 14, 1990 occurred in the boundary between China and Kazakstan. During the great shock, 3 persons lost their lives, 30 people had been hurt and 340 houses collapsed. The intensity of the epicentre is VIII Degree. The economic losses equals to about 320 000 000 Yuan. This large earthquake was occurred on a new born fault, it belongs to main shock-aftershock type earthquake. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 360–365, 1993.     

Study of the characteristics of earthquake precursory anomalies of He and H2 Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill well and their relation with earthquakes

This paper systematically summarized the relation of the abnormal change of He and H₂ dissolved gasses in deep hot-water well at Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill and their relation with seismicity of the region. An empirical formula for the relation of the precursory anomaly of He and H₂ gasses with the magnitude and occurrence time of earthquake has been derived. Two events of magnitude greater than 5 in North China had been successfully predicted by using this formula. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 490–497, 1993.     

Earthquake prediction decision and risk matrix

The issuance of an earthquake prediction must cause widespread social responses. It is suggested and discussed in this paper that the comprehensive decision issue for earthquake prediction considering the factors of the social and economic cost. The method of matrix decision for earthquake prediction (MDEP) is proposed in this paper and it is based on the risk matrix. The goal of decision is that search the best manner issuing earthquake prediction so that minimize the total losses of economy. The establishment and calculation of the risk matrix is discussed, and the decision results taking account of economic factors and not considering the economic factors are compared by examples in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismological Sinica,15, 232–238, 1993.     

The observation and research on pre-earthquake electromagnetic radiation information

By use of the specialized under ground electrodes as the sensor, the Experimental Multi-station Network observed Seismic Electromagnetic radiationsprior to the moderately strong earthquake. From the great number of electromagnetic anomalies recorded by the network continuously for about 10 years, it can be sure that the anomalies are related to earthquakes aboveM _s 5 within 300 km. The stronger the magnitude of the earthquake is, the better the relation is. The abnormal electromagnetic radiation information appears in a short-time before the moderately strong earthquake. The continuous automatic pen recording shows that the electromagnetic information is the waveform of the paroxysmal wave group, and has the features of undulating enhancement, amplitude in inversely proportion to epicentral distance, frequency increase, regional similarity of wave froms and directivity, etc.. It also contains some quantitative elements related to the parameters of the earthquake. The above characteristics and correlative elements can provide important bases for predicting the three elements of the earthquake. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 83–90, 1993. Associate Professor Da-Yuan CHANG and Teacher Feng CHEN have gave us a lot of help during the study.     

Determination of source-time function of intermediate and small earthquakes from empirical Green’s functions

The regularization method was used to invert the source-time function of four larger aftershocks of the Luquan, Yun-nan,M _s = 6.1 earthquake of April 18, 1984. Near-field digital accelerograms were used in the inversion. Instead of calculating synthetic seismograms theoretically, an accelerogram of smaller earthquake was used as an empirical Green’s function. The results obtained showed that the source-time function of smaller aftershock was usually a simple pulse, while that of larger events was more or less complicated. The rupture velocities and the average particle velocities of the aftershocks were determined. All the results were in good agreement with the result estimated from the present seismic source theory. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 22–31, 1993. This study is supported by the Western Yunnan Experimental Site for Earthquake Prediction and the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Variations of the geomagnetic field and the geomagnetic effects of three earthquakes ( M s>5.0) in Jiangsu Province, China

Since 1979 the repeated observations and experiments of geomagnetic total intensity and vertical component have been carried out for ten years in the geomagetic network which is located in Jiangsu Province, China. Three earthquakes aboveM _s 5.0 occurred during the decade, and some seismomagnetic effects were observed. The observation results show that the anomalies of the vertical geomagnetic component can’t be observed untill some months before the earthquake (M _s>5.0) in this area. In this paper it is suggested that a densely distributed network for continuous observation of geomagnetic vertical component may catch seismomagnetic anomalies and thus improve earthquake prediction in the light of the geomagnetic measurements of the mid — or — low latitude locations. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 80–87, 1991. This study is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

The research of a comprehensive program for earthquake prediction with seismological methods

In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to comprehensive earthquake prediction. And it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences and computing comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of these methods, 18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China is tested with seismological anomalies in different seismogenic stage, and the comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. At last some problems in application are discussed. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 328–337, 1991.     

Inversion of waveform from the data of six moderate strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland to seismic moment tensors and source mechanism

Based on Generalized Seismic Ray Theory (Helmberger, 1968), a new quickly linear inversion method from the data of seismic waveform to seismic moment tensor and source mechanism for domestic earthquake is studied in this paper. Six moderately strong earthquakes which occurred in Chinese mainland in the past few years are studied. The seismic source parameters of these earthquakes, seismic moment tensors, scalar seismic moments, fault plane solutions and source time functionsetc, are obtained. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 261–268, 1993.     

Study of dislocation model and evolution characteristics of vertical deformation field of gonghe M S=6.9 earthquake

The preliminary research results of vertical deformation dislocation model of GongheM _S =6.9 earthquake show that, the causative structure is a hidden fault with strike N60°W, dipping S47°W, which lies near the current subsidence center of Gonghe basin. The rupture length and width are 30km and 14km, the upper and lower bound depth of the fault in width direction are 3km and 17km respectively. The maximum coseismic and preseismic vertical deformation of GongheM _S =6.9 earthquake are 247mm and about 100mm. The reasons why there existed rapid postseismic uplift are also given a tentative discussion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 289–295, 1993.     

Geomagnetic daily variations around Huanghai earthquake

The geomagnetic daily variations of vertical component, which were recorded by geomagnetic array in Jiangsu Province, are investigated with the method of multichannel Wiener filtering. The results show that the daily standard errors between raw data and the actual output of the filter for the nearest stations away from epicenter are obviously higher than ordinary level before the Huanghai earthquake, especially three days before, then returned to normal after the earthquake. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 76–79, 1991. The project was supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

地震电磁前兆的观测

地震的电磁前兆现象越来越受到人们的关注,地震电磁观测技术也在不断地得到发展和改进,已经由被动的观测发展到主动的观测,由地面局部的观测扩展到空间卫星全球范围的观测。文中介绍当前国内外在地震电磁观测方面的研究进展和实例,展望了我国未来地震电磁观测技术的发展。     

Instantaneous spectrum analysis and its application in estimation of earthquake tendency

In this paper, first discussing briefly the instantaneous spectrum theory. Then, the instantnaeous spectra and Fourier spectra of three seismic sequences are calculated, and comparing them to explain the superior characteristics of instantaneous spectrum. Finally, the earthquake tendency of North China is estimated by using the instantaneous spectrum theory. The results show that not only the occurrence time of the coming large earthquake, but also its magnitude instantaneous can be estimated by using instantaneous spectrum of the seismic sequence. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa seismologica Sinica,15, 68–75, 1993.     

A data collection and analysis system for research on rock fracturing

We have made a data collection and analysis system for recording microcracks in rock to study the three dimensional pattern of fracture and the dynamic properties of rock during pressurization. This system, with 8 channel data detection, records in real-time, from the initial microcracks to the final vibration waveform excited by the master fracture. The detected data are recorded digitally at the hard disk of an IBM computer (or 286, 386 personal computer) as well as transmitted to disk. The sampling rate for each channel is 10 MHz. Collecting every acoustic emission events in the loaded rock sample with 8 channels by this system, mathematically modelling the AE event travel time, and taking the coordinates of the AE event hypocenter and the three components of P wave velocity as unknown parameters, we set up a set of residual equations for joint inversion, so that the three dimensional localization of AE event hypocenters can be completed under variable velocities, which will lay foundations for the research on rock fracture clearly. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismological Sinica,13, 489–495, 1991. The design and development of the system, and the experiments are sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.