鄱阳湖流域生态系统服务价值评估

为定量评估鄱阳湖及五河(赣江、抚河、信江、饶河、修河)流域生态系统服务价值,以及为江西省生态文明建设提供决策参考,文中收集整理了2015年流域水资源、农作物及水产品产量、污染物排放量、水土流失等数据,运用市场价格法、替代成本法等对江西省鄱阳湖及五河流域年度流域物质生产、水资源供给、水环境承载力、蓄水功能和水土保持五大功能价值进行定量评估。结果表明:鄱阳湖及五河流域2015年流域生态系统服务功能总经济价值为4.53×10~(11)元,各生态服务功能价值的比例最高的是流域物质生产,为54%,这反映了江西省是一个拥有丰富农业资源的农业大省。江西省流域生态系统服务功能价值的水资源供给、水环境承载力、蓄水、水土保持等其他功能价值方面有很大的发展空间,随着经济社会的不断发展,其服务功能价值将得到更大的体现。     

影响浙江水资源和水环境的因素及对策

本文通过对浙江省水资源与水环境的现状和影响浙江水环境与水资源的主要因素分析,提出了保护水资源,治理水环境的对策措施。影响水资源和水环境最主要的因素是污染,改善水环境,保护水资源最根本的途径是控制“三废”排放。加强水资源的管理必须走法制化的道路。     

影响海河流域参考作物蒸散量的气象因子定量分析

基于海河流域159个气象站1961—2014年逐日气象资料,采用P-M模型计算该地区的参考作物蒸散量(ET0),分析海河流域ET0对平均最高、最低气温及相对湿度、平均风速和日照时数的敏感性,并结合各气象要素的多年相对变化率定量探讨ET0变化的主导因子。结果表明:海河流域年ET0以-22.7 mm·(10 a)-1的速率显著减少,在空间分布上,除流域西北部分地区呈增加趋势外,大部分地区ET0呈显著减少趋势。ET0对各要素的敏感系数除相对湿度外,其他均为正值。综合考虑ET0对各要素的敏感性及各要素的多年相对变化率发现,相对湿度及最高、最低气温是导致ET0增加的因子,平均风速和日照时数则是导致ET0减少的因子。虽然平均风速和日照时数的敏感系数不是最高,但其减小趋势显著,多年相对变化率较大,导致对ET0的贡献较大,成为海河流域ET0变化的主导因子,二者的显著减少造成了整个流域ET0显著减少的事实。     

主编语

生态气象学是一门交叉学科,它以包括大气环境在内的生态系统为主要研究对象,利用天气学、气候学、应用气象学、生态学原理与方法研究生态系统诸因子间的相互作用及变化规律。在全球气候变暖、生态环境问题日益突出的背景下,生物资源和土地资源退化等问题直接威胁到了人类的生存和可持续发展。考虑到未来气候变化的不确定性和负面影响,如何维持生态系统的健康演变,适应环境变化,需要将气象学和生态学结合起来开展交叉研究,探讨各相关要素相互作用的过程和因果关系,这是生态气象学需要探讨、解决的问题。水生生态系统是全球生态系统重要的组成部分。长江作为我国最长的河流,其流域的生态环境与天气、气候变化对于沿江区域的经济发展有着重要影响。特别是在“万里长江,险在荆江”的荆江流域,夏季的强降水使得这片素有“九曲回肠”之称的流域始终面临着洪水宣泄不畅、极易溃堤成灾的威胁。因此,研究该流域的生态气象特征,对于这里以农业、水产养殖业为特色的地方经济、及清洁环境和健康生态系统的维持具有重要的气象服务价值。近年来,湖北省荆州市气象局在生态气象领域做了大量工作,对一些科技问题进行了积极探索和总结,本期以“刊中刊”的形式集中刊登了依托于荆州市气象局的“江汉平原生态气象遥感监测技术协调创新中心”有关成员单位在湿地生态与农业气象等方面的最新研究文章。本期“进展报告:长江生态气象”在荆州市气象局的支持下,展示了该局科研业务人员独立或与高校等机构学者合作,在江汉生态气象方面近年来取得的主要成果。这些研究分别从产量预报(P36)、洪涝灾害(P51)、农作物遥感(P58、P72)、水体遥感(P85、P91)以及流域生态环境保护(P105)等不同角度阐述了生态气象领域在当地的研究进展,这些研究与长江流域生态保护与可持续发展问题密切相关。     

基于MODIS和HJ-1数据的宿鸭湖水库面积遥感监测研究

水体与植被、城市和土壤等地物在不同波段的光谱反射率的差异是利用遥感手段提取水体信息的基本原理。以宿鸭湖水库为例,在水体光谱特征分析的基础上,采用归一化植被指数（NDVI）方法提取2010年的MODIS和HJ-1遥感影像上的水体信息。首先将MODIS数据的第1和第2波段,以及HJ-1数据的第3和第4波段经过波段运算得到NDVI图像。将两种遥感图像中NDVI值为负的像元判识为水体,NDVI值为正的判识为水库周围的农田,经过计算像元数量得到水体面积信息。水体判识阈值在全年变化范围在-0．08和0．08之间。HJ-1数据具有较高的空间分辨率,水体判识的结果比MODIS数据更加精确。利用HJ—I数据水体监测结果对MODIS数据结果进行校正,使得到的监测结果同时具有较高的时间分辨率和空间分辨率。研究结果表明：利用HJ-1数据校正后的MODIS数据所测得的水域面积与实际观测得到的水库蓄水量之间的复相关系数为0．8603,显著提高了水体监测的精度,从而为大范围的水资源与水环境动态监测提供了迅速、可靠的依据。     

2005-2015年年楚河流域冰川动态变化遥感监测研究

本文结合多模式遥感数据及产品对西藏年楚河流域上游地区10年间(2005~2015年)的冰川变化进行了监测分析。基于支持向量机(SVM)的分类结果表明:冰川面积减少了21.7km2,退化率(PAC)为16.94%,年退化率(APAC)为1.69%。冰川厚度变化监测采用了两期遥感数字表面模型(DSM)差值法,结果表明冰川厚度减少了5.20m。冰川体积变化用厚度变化与面积变化的乘积计算。结果表明,10年间研究区内冰川体积减少了0.71km3。以上分析结果表明,研究区冰川在此10年间出现了重度退化。      

江淮流域旱涝灾害气象卫星遥感监测和预报方法研究

根据气象卫星遥感、数值预报和农业气象观测资料,研制开发了江淮流域干旱洪涝灾害的遥感监测方法,详细分析降水对旱涝演变趋势的影响并建立了模型;通过对数值预报产品动力释用技术方法研究,研制了中短期面雨量预报系统,将上述研究成果集成,最终形成江淮流域旱涝遥感监测预报系统。     

用TRMM卫星微波成像仪资料遥感地面洪涝的研究

文中阐述了用热带降雨测量卫星 (TRMM )微波成像仪 (TMI)监测地面洪涝灾害的能力 ,并利用动态聚类、土壤湿度指数、极化亮温差指数、极化亮温比指数等 4种基于TMI亮温资料的方法遥感了 1998年夏季中国江淮流域的洪涝灾害。通过与机载雷达图像、星载雷达图像以及基于地面日降雨量资料的Z 指数方法确定的地面洪涝情况的对比 ,结果表明用TMI亮温资料监测地面洪涝灾害是可行的 ,遥感结果也是比较满意的     

MODIS影像水体监测方法研究进展

水体与植被、城市、土壤等地物在不同波段的光谱反射率的差异是利用遥感手段提取水体信息的基本原理.在水体光谱特征分析的基础上,介绍了MODIS数据特征以及各种水体信息的提取方法,比较了这些方法的优点和不足,并详细描述了各种水体指数的应用效果.水体指数法是目前最受关注的水体识别方法.综合利用各种水体指数和波段特征来提取水体信息,可有效排除其他地物的干扰,显著提高了水体监测的精度,从而为大范围的水资源与水环境动态监测迅速提供可靠的数据.     

涪江流域水资源变化研究

用适宜于四川地区的太阳总辐射计算方法,计算了涪江流域近年来的太阳总辐射量。并用彭曼公式求出涪江流域近年来和绵阳４２年的水资源变化。提出了近几年涪江流域水资源处于历史低值期、太阳总辐射处于历史高值期;水资源短缺期由历史上的６￣７个月增加到近几年的９￣１０个月等观点。为合理利用涪江流域水资源、科学安排上农业及生活用水提供了理论依据。     

黑河流域日蒸散发遥感估算研究

地表蒸散的估算在干旱半干旱区水资源研究中具有重要意义。利用NOAA/AVHRR遥感资料、NCEP再分析格点资料和气象站点资料,根据能量平衡模型和FAO-17 Penman公式,计算了研究区域内逐日蒸散发量;对于晴天,用遥感模型反演出瞬时蒸散,进而推算出日蒸散;同时用FAO-17 Penmen公式和气象资料,计算研究区域内的同一天的蒸散,利用气象资料计算得到的蒸散与遥感估算的蒸散的关系,估算非晴空日的蒸散,进而得到逐日蒸散发结果。与同类研究结果的比较表明:该方法能够估算逐日蒸散发,通过气象与遥感资料结合,提高了气象格点资料的空间分辨率,弥补了难以得到遥感逐日晴空资料的不足,同时也为流域内同类研究提供参考依据。     

Evaluation of SEBS for estimation of actual evapotranspiration using ASTER satellite data for irrigation areas of Australia

Spatial knowledge of land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is of prime interest for environmental applications, such as optimizing irrigation water use, irrigation system performance, crop water deficit, drought mitigation strategies, and accurate initialization of climate prediction models especially in arid and semiarid catchments where water shortage is a critical problem. The recent drought in Australia and concerns about climate change have highlighted the need to manage water resources more sustainably especially in the Murrumbidgee catchment which utilizes bulk water for food production. This study deals with the application of a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) algorithm based on Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) data and field observations has been proposed and tested for deriving ET over Coleambally Irrigation Area, located in the southwest of NSW, Australia. We have used 12 ASTER scenes covering the time period of 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2009 for estimating the actual ET over the study area. To validate the proposed methodology, the ground-measured ET was compared to the ASTER-derived actual ET values for the study area. The derived ET value over the study area is much closer to the field measurement. From the remote sensing results and observations, the root mean square error is 0.89 and the mean absolute percentage difference is 2.87 %, which demonstrate the reasonability of SEBS ET estimation for the study area.     

遥感动态监测太原市城市建设用地及其扩展变化分析

以20世纪70年代、1993年和2010年3个时段的遥感TM影像为依据,应用遥感、地理信息系统技术进行了汾河流域太原市的实体边界提取,获得太原市城市建设用地不同时期的数据资源,对太原市城市建设用地近30 a的变化特征进行定量分析,结果表明,太原市近30 a一直处于城市快速扩展阶段,且向南扩展。城市建设用地扩展变化及发展方向主要受地形等自然因素和人口、经济及政策等人文因素影响。     

基于CMIP6多模式的长江流域蒸散发预估及影响因素

蒸散发是水文循环和能量传输的中间环节,同时也是联结土壤、植被、大气过程的纽带。基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）12个全球气候模式数据,研究了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种情景下,长江流域2020-2099年实际蒸散发E_T（Evapotranspiration,简称ET）的时空变化及其影响因素。研究结果表明,在3种气候变化情景下长江流域ET相较基准期（1995-2014年）均存在显著增加趋势,且长江中下游地区增加趋势最为显著;SSP1-2.6情景ET较基准期先快速增加,21世纪60年代之后减缓并趋于平稳,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下均呈持续增加趋势。研究了降水（Precipitation,简称Pr）、气温（Air Temperature,简称T）和叶面积指数L_AI（Leaf Area Index,简称LAI）对长江流域ET的影响;SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下,长江流域ET受T影响最为显著,而SSP5-8.5情景下,LAI是影响ET的主导因素。在3种气候情景下,辐射强迫越大,植被增加趋势越显著,对ET的影响越强（SSP5-8.5、SSP2-4.5、SSP1-2.6情景下影响逐渐减弱）,而ET对LAI的敏感性则逐渐降低（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下敏感性逐渐降低）。     

关于卫星遥感半干旱草原陆面过程的方法和应用研究

国家自然科学基金委重大项目ＩＭＧＲＡＳＳ第６课题是关于利用卫星资料来遥感探测半干旱草原陆面过程的方法及应用的研究。结合总项目对这一课题的要求和当前卫星遥感现状及发展情况,本文概要地介绍这一课题的研究内容和一些初步的思考。     

辽宁土地利用动态遥感监测分析

介绍了在RS与GIS支持下,以Landsat TM和ETM及SPOT数据为主要信息源,采用栅格数据与矢量数据、多源与多时相数据、遥感数据与生态环境基础图件相结合和内业处理与外业调查相结合的技术路线,应用遥感信息提取技术和遥感影像处理及DOM制作方法,得出近15 a辽宁土地面积变化及趋势。结果表明:近年辽宁耕地、水域和工矿等用地面积逐年上升;湿地、草地和未利用土地面积逐年下降。     

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.     

Regional estimates of evapotranspiration over Northern China using a remote-sensing-based triangle interpolation method

Regional estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) are critical for a wide range of applications. Satellite remote sensing is a promising tool for obtaining reasonable ET spatial distribution data. However, there are at least two major problems that exist in the regional estimation of ET from remote sensing data. One is the conflicting requirements of simple data over a wide region, and accuracy of those data. The second is the lack of regional ET products that cover the entire region of northern China. In this study, we first retrieved the evaporative fraction (EF) by interpolating from the difference of day/night land surface temperature ( T ) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) triangular-shaped scatter space. Then, ET was generated from EF and land surface meteorological data. The estimated eight-day EF and ET results were validated with 14 eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements in the growing season (July-September) for the year2008 over the study area. The estimated values agreed well with flux tower measurements, and this agreement was highly statistically significant for both EF and ET (p <0.01), with the correlation coefficient for EF (R2 =0.64) being relatively higher than for ET (R2 =0.57). Validation with EC-measured ET showed the mean RMSE and bias were 0.78 mm d-1 (22.03 W m-2 ) and 0.31 mm d-1 (8.86 W m-2 ), respectively. The ET over the study area increased along a clear longitudinal gradient, which was probably controlled by the gradient of precipitation, green vegetation fractions, and the intensity of human activities. The satellite-based estimates adequately captured the spatial and seasonal structure of ET. Overall, our results demonstrate the potential of this simple but practical method for monitoring ET over regions with heterogeneous surface areas.     

Climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation: a case study of the Haihe River Basin,Northern China

In this study, a groundwater exploitation scheme is incorporated into the regional climate model, RegCM4, and the climatic responses to anthropogenic alteration of groundwater are then investigated over the Haihe River Basin in Northern China where groundwater resources are overexploited. The scheme models anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and water consumption, which are further divided into agricultural irrigation, industrial use and domestic use. Four 30-year on-line exploitation simulations and one control test without exploitation are conducted using the developed model with different water demands estimated from relevant socioeconomic data. The results reveal that the groundwater exploitation and water consumption cause increasing wetting and cooling effects on the local land surface and in the lower troposphere, along with a rapidly declining groundwater table in the basin. The cooling and wetting effects also extended outside the basin, especially in the regions downwind of the prevailing westerly wind, where increased precipitation occurs. The changes in the four exploitation simulations positively relate to their different water demands and are highly non-linear. The largest changes in climatic variables usually appear in spring and summer, the time of crop growth. To gain further insights into the direct changes in land-surface variables due to groundwater exploitation regardless of the atmospheric feedbacks, three off-line simulations using the land surface model Community Land Model version 3.5 are also conducted to distinguish these direct changes on the land surface of the basin. The results indicate that the direct changes of land-surface variables respond linearly to water demand if the climatic feedbacks are not considered, while non-linear climatic feedbacks enhance the differences in the on-line exploitation simulations.     

Analysis of climatic variability and snow cover in the Kaligandaki River Basin,Himalaya, Nepal

Various remote sensing products and observed data sets were used to determine spatial and temporal trends in climatic variables and their relationship with snow cover area in the higher Himalayas, Nepal. The remote sensing techniques can detect spatial as well as temporal patterns in temperature and snow cover across the inaccessible terrain. Non-parametric methods (i.e. the Mann–Kendall method and Sen's slope) were used to identify trends in climatic variables. Increasing trends in temperature, approximately by 0.03 to 0.08 °C year^?1 based on the station data in different season, and mixed trends in seasonal precipitation were found for the studied basin. The accuracy of MOD10A1 snow cover and fractional snow cover in the Kaligandaki Basin was assessed with respect to the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer-based snow cover area. With increasing trends in winter and spring temperature and decreasing trends in precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow cover area during these seasons was also identified. Results indicate the possible impact of global warming on precipitation and snow cover area in the higher mountainous area. Similar investigations in other regions of Himalayas are warranted to further strengthen the understanding of impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources and extreme hydrologic events.