喜马拉雅造山带地震活动及其相关地质灾害

喜马拉雅造山带是地球上海拔最高、规模最大的陆陆板块俯冲碰撞带在这条长达2 500 km的板块边界上,近年来多次发生破坏性地震,造成大规模的滑坡、房屋倒塌等次生灾害,给人民生命和财产安全造成严重的威胁。分别选取尼泊尔喜马拉雅、喜马拉雅东构造结和喜马拉雅西构造结地区近期发生的3个地震震群作为研究实例,基于中国科学院青藏高原研究所在研究区架设的区域流动地震台站记录的波形资料,对地震的震源位置和震源机制解进行计算。结果表明,在尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区,主喜马拉雅逆冲断裂是大地震的主要发震构造;东构造结地区的地震以逆冲和走滑型为主,表明印度板块向北东方向的逆冲推覆和青藏高原向东南逃逸的侧向挤出是该地区的主要构造背景;西构造结地区中深源地震多发,揭示了高角度大陆深俯冲的几何形态。     

2015年尼泊尔8.1级大地震前后喜马拉雅带地震活动图像演变

针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M8.1地震后喜马拉雅造山带的未来地震危险性问题,通过对喜马拉雅带历史大地震应变能释放和在尼泊尔地震发震前后的区域地震活动图像进行了分析研究。结果发现喜马拉雅带很可能已进入新-轮的地震活跃期。此次尼泊尔大地震不足以将喜马拉雅带中段的地壳应变能全部释放,喜马拉雅带中段的地震活动和藏南裂谷带地震活动具有密切的关联,在喜马拉雅带中段和藏南裂谷带还将有大地震活动。同时研究结果还显示现今在喜马拉雅带的东段存在阿萨姆围空区和不丹围空区,在喜马拉雅的西段出现噶尔围空区,喜马拉雅西段新德里和西藏接壤地区以及喀喇昆仑断裂上噶尔县地区地震危险性很高,喜马拉雅东段林芝山南地区以南的阿萨姆和不丹地区危险性很高,应引起重视。     

以精定位背景地震活动与震源机制解研究郯庐断裂带中南段现今活动习性

郯庐断裂带是中国东部板内一条规模最大的强构造变形带与地震活动断裂带,其断裂结构与历史地震活动性具明显的分段活动性。文中通过沿郯庐断裂带中南段的历史地震活动性、精定位背景地震活动性与震源机制解分析,讨论了断裂带的深部几何结构与现今活动习性。现今地震活动在中段主要沿1668年郯城MS 8地震破裂带线性分布,线性条带在泗洪-诸城间延伸约340 km长,为1668年地震长期缓慢衰减的余震序列活动。大震地表破裂遗迹与精定位地震分布都揭示出郯庐断裂带中段的两条全新世活动断裂昌邑-大店断裂与安丘-莒县断裂以右阶斜列的形式共同参与了1668年郯城MS 8地震破裂。精定位震源剖面刻画出两条断裂结构面呈高角度相背而倾,其中昌邑-大店断裂倾向SE,安丘-莒县断裂倾向NW,两条断裂在深部没有合并汇聚。余震活动所代表的1668年地震震源破裂带是郯庐断裂带中现今尚未闭锁的安全段落,对应于高b值段。而未发生破裂的安丘以北段,小震活动不活跃,b值低,现今可能已成为应力积累的闭锁段。震源机制解揭示的断裂应力状态在中段以NE向主压应力为主,表现为右旋走滑活动性质,且存在少量正断分量,南段转为以NEE至近EW向为主,存在少量的逆冲分量。在中段与南段的转折处宿迁-嘉山段,主压应力方向垂直断裂带走向呈NWW向,反映出局部以挤压为主的应力特征,其中泗洪-嘉山段也是历史地震未破裂段,现今小震活动不活跃,因此该段可能更易于应力积累。精定位小震活动在郯庐断裂与北西向断裂相交汇处聚集,反映出北西向断裂的新活动性,以及郯庐断裂带现今的逆冲作用。在断裂带南端,精定位背景地震活动沿与其相交汇的襄樊-广济断裂带东段呈北西向线性分布,表明了该段的现今活动性。     

印度—欧亚板块碰撞变形区的大地震时空分布特征与迁移规律

印度板块与欧亚板块在新生代期间的持续碰撞和挤压过程导致亚洲大陆发生了强烈的弥散式板内变形,并形成了一个以贝加尔湖为顶点,以喜马拉雅带为底边的近似三角形的变形区与强震活动区,即新-藏三角区。基于固体刚塑性变形平面结构,结合滑移线场网络模型,对该区历史强震活动的大范围离散式空间分布特点进行了分析解释。结合1505-1976年以来历史强震空间迁移的实例,归纳了该区历史强震活动与地震应变释放从印度板块边界→新-藏地块→两侧大陆的顺序性及定向性迁移特征,并根据对地震空间迁移规律的认识,进一步探讨了区域未来强震危险性问题。结果显示,从2000-2018年间,印度板块边界和新-藏三角区已多次发生M7.9~9.1大地震,但其东、西两侧的区域大陆地区却异常平静,没发生过7级以上大地震。依照区域强震活动的顺序性迁移特点,推测在未来几到几十年,亚洲大陆东部与中部以及喜马拉雅带东段等区域的大地震危险性较大。      

地震空区法在大地震危险性初判中的应用——以青藏高原东南缘为例

以ARCGIS系列软件和VS 2010、SQL Server 2008为平台, 通过融合集成活动构造、地震地质和国家基础地理信息, 在初步建立的青藏高原东南缘活动构造空间数据库系统基础上, 利用地震围空区方法, 针对研究区进行区域大地震危险性中长期预测分析。通过地震信息分时间、分震级的整理与数据输出, 分析汇总了11例M≥7.0大震震例的地震空区活动图像以及围空区发震震级与围空区特征与参数。在总结出的经验公式基础上, 进一步利用1950-2012年的M≥5.0地震数据, 对该区地震围空区的发生与发育状况进行了初步分析与研究, 并对未来可能发生大震的发震位置及震级进行了综合分析。研究结果表明, 玉树-鲜水河-小江断裂带所围限的青藏高原东南缘地区存在6个比较突出的与区域重要的晚第四纪活动构造带或断裂带相对应的大地震围空区, 分别是错那-沃卡裂谷, 东喜马拉雅构造结, 安宁河-则木河断裂, 南汀河断裂-红河断裂, 畹町断裂-南汀河断裂, 澜沧-景洪断裂东段。这些围空区中主要活动断裂带的晚第四纪活动性与历史地震活动状况也都显示出未来几年至几十年存在发生大地震的危险性, 在今后的地震预报工作中应给予特别关注。应用实践表明, 通过活动构造数据库的建设可快速有效地实现对区域大地震围空区的动态分析、辨别及大地震危险性初判。      

汶川8级大地震同震破裂的特殊性及构造意义——多条平行断裂同时活动的反序型逆冲地震事件

汶川地震是有仪器记录以来发生的世界上最大的板内逆冲型地震之一。野外调查表明,沿北东走向的龙门山断裂带上,至少有两条逆冲断裂同时参与汶川地震的同震破裂过程,即北川断裂和安县灌县断裂（彭灌断裂）。倾向北西的高角度北川逆冲断裂上的地表破裂长度大于200 km,可能达225 km。运动方式在南部表现为以北西盘抬升的逆冲为主,往北东转为逆冲右旋走滑,走滑分量与垂向陡坎高度相当,陡坎高度最大值约为11 m。在彭灌断裂上,地表破裂表现为北西盘抬升的近纯逆冲性质的破裂,破裂长度达70 km,陡坎最高达3~3.5 m。汶川地震是世界上第一次明确记录到多条平行断裂参与同震破裂的逆冲型地震,而且因发震断层是龙门山断裂带内部的高角度逆冲断裂,而非断裂带前锋的低角度逆冲断裂,所以汶川地震属于反序型逆冲断裂活动。这与1999年我国台湾7.5级集集地震和2005年克什米尔7.6级地震类似,说明反序型逆冲地震具有普遍性。汶川地震这一震级大、破裂长的逆冲地震事件是对目前流行的青藏高原下地壳流动的变形假说提出的严峻挑战,同时也表明加强青藏高原东缘南北地震带上其他滑动速率较低但同样具有发生大地震可能性的活动断裂的滑动速率和古地震定量研究的紧迫性,因为这一地区人口密度与东部相当,但发生强震的频率更高。     

汶川大地震(MS 8.0)同震变形作用及其与地质灾害的关系

2008年5月12日发生于四川盆地西部龙门山断裂带的汶川大地震（MS 8.0）波及半个亚洲,震撼整个中国。本文通过地震后的实地调查,对发育在龙门山断裂带上的同震地表破裂带的分布、产状、继承性复活与变形特征,以及同震变形与地震地质灾害的关系等进行了初步总结,分析表明这次汶川大地震(MS 8.0)沿北川-映秀逆冲断裂和安县-灌县逆冲断裂同时发生地表破裂,前者产生以高角度逆冲兼右旋走滑为特征的地表破裂带长约275 km,后者产生以缓倾角逆冲作用为特征的地表破裂带长约80 km。汶川大地震的同震地表破裂带分布具有分段性特征,并与地表破坏程度的分带性有着一定的内在联系,详细研究表明,同震地表破裂带的产状直接影响地表破坏程度和地震地质灾害的强度,汶川大地震（MS 8.0）沿呈高角度陡倾的北川-映秀逆冲断裂发育的同震地表变形所产生的地表破坏程度和地震地质灾害的强度比沿缓倾角的安县-灌县逆冲断裂要强。从各种类型的地震断裂来看,具有垂直运动的逆冲型地震断裂所造成的地表破坏程度和地质灾害强度比具水平运动的走滑型地震断裂要强。因此,汶川大地震发生的破裂过程和同震地表变形与地震地质灾害的关系值得深入研究。     

印度喜马拉雅拉豪-拉达克地区印度缝合带南部的全新世构造：印度板块运动的结果

一、前言 印度板块与亚洲大陆板块的碰撞形成了喜马拉雅山及现今的构造体系。喜马拉雅的新构造活动也可能与板块构造有关，出人意料的是，迄今对这一年轻山脉新构造活动的研究只与距印度缝合线较远的小喜马拉雅的中央逆冲断层和边界主逆冲断层相联系。     

三江造山带后碰撞断裂构造带的结构与演化:以新生代剑川-兰坪盆地为例

三江造山带作为调节印度一欧亚板块间的碰撞及后碰撞过程的重要构造带,具有长期多阶段复杂演化过程。在剑川—兰坪新生代盆地发育的澜沧江断裂带、中轴断裂带和乔后断裂带是三江造山带不同时期演化的具体体现。它们在产状、组成和特点等方面有着显著的差异。构造分析表明,澜沧江断裂带与印度—欧亚岩石圈板块间的早期碰撞过程密切相关,它制约着剑川—兰坪盆地的发育;乔后断裂带和中轴断裂带对于剑川—兰坪盆地具有强烈的改造作用,是后碰撞调解过程的结果。三江造山带对于印度—欧亚板块间碰撞的调解过程,包括了水平侧向逃逸与垂向物质蠕散。在剑川—兰坪地区,前者表现为乔后断裂早期阶段右行走滑作用产生了大约90km的走向错移,而后者形成了广布于中轴断裂内遍布的小型逆冲构造和乔后断裂西部的大量逆冲和推覆体构造。     

青藏高原昆仑—汶川地震系列与巴颜喀喇断块的最新活动

青藏高原是中国最主要的地震活动区之一。最近十多年来,在青藏高原中部连续发生了1997年西藏玛尼Ms7.5级地震、2001年青海昆仑山Ms8.1级地震、2008年3月新疆于田Ms7.3级地震和5月四川汶川Ms8.0级地震及2010年青海玉树Ms7.1级地震,它们相继发生于青藏断块区巴颜喀喇断块四周边界活动断裂带上,是该断块最新活动的结果。发生于断块南北边界断裂上的3次地震都是走滑断裂错动的结果,发生在断块东南端的汶川地震则是挤压逆冲断裂的产物,而西北端的于田地震则呈现出张性特征,它们共同反映青藏断块区巴颜喀喇条状断块向东南方向滑动的最新活动。自1900年以来,青藏断块区和巴颜喀喇断块的强震活动表现出多期活动和区域性转移的特征,20世纪早期Ms7.0级以上强地震活动的主体地区在青藏断块区北部边界构造带,中期转移到高原南部喜马拉雅板块边界构造带和断块区南部断块,最近十多年来则在巴颜喀喇断块及周缘边界断裂上活动。青藏高原这种块体活动和地震活动与澳大利亚-印度板块对亚洲大陆的推挤作用相关,因而,青藏高原和巴颜喀喇断块的强震活动与澳-印板块边界苏门答腊强震活动相对应。目前苏门答腊地区强震活动仍在继续,因此,近期对巴颜喀喇断块及青藏高原南部地区的强震活动和强震危险性仍需加以注意。     

Earthquake and its forecasting

Present status of earthquake prediction and warning is reviewed with special emphasis on the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act in Japan. Following possible regionalization of occurrences of a great earthquake by means of historical data analysis and crustal strain monitoring, statistics of earthquake precursors are presented along with the nature of precursors of various disciplines.The precursor time of the first-kind precursor depends on the magnitude of the main shock. The larger the magnitude is, the longer is the precursor time. The precursor of the second kind has a precursor time amounting to about a few hours, while that for the third kind ranges from a few to several ten days. A practical approach to actual prediction is suggested on the basis of the analysis of precursors. Difficulties in converting a prediction to a warning is briefly pointed out as well.     

Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.     

Earthquake risk to industry in Istanbul and its management

Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.     

谈谈“地震速报评比软件”及其研制

本文介绍了“地震速报评比”的重要性及“地震速报评比”软件的研制及使用效果。认为用该软件进行速报评比可使评比结果更公正、准确,评比工作效率也可以大大提高。     

汶川Ms8级地震形成的擦痕形迹及其意义探讨

2008年5月12日14时28分(北京时间)中国四川省汶川县境内发生里氏80级地震。北川-映秀断裂是汶川Ms8级地震的发震断裂之一,以逆(右行)走滑活动为主,延伸长约220 km,活动强度大于其他两条断裂。主震在北川-映秀地表破裂带局部地点形成清晰的擦痕,它的位置和规模可能是深部破裂滑动量峰值在地表的响应。根据断层擦痕反映的应力场及位移与破裂长度关系等特征,将北川-映秀破裂带分为虹口段、北川段、南坝段。虹口段长度约22~45 km,同震位移量约45 m,σ1呈NWW-NW向,至少经历了三期活动,第三期逆冲活动强度最大,改造前两期逆(右行)走滑活动,它们的形成可能均与本次主震相关;北川段长约90~100 km,同震位移量约35 m,σ1呈NWW向近水平,活动强度弱于虹口第三期;南坝段长约35~50 km,同震位移量约25 m,以NWW向近水平挤压为特征,σ1方位角与中、南段相差约180°,活动强度与南段前两期相近。     

The 2014 Northern Thailand Mw 6.1 Earthquake and its Seismogenic Tectonics

On May 5, 2014, an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 6.1 (the largest earthquake in Thailand so far) occurred in Chiang Rai of the Golden Triangle area in northern Thailand. We had an opportunity to conduct field survey immediately after the earthquake. Serious damage to buildings and casualties of lives were observed, and the estimated Maximum Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of the earthquake is VIII (evaluated according to the MMI scale of the Chinese Standard). No long continuous ground ruptures were produced during the earthquake,??but in the epicenter (commonly within MMI VIII extent), massive small linear ruptures (usually several tens of meters long) developed and displayed intriguing structural features, offsetting many roads several centimeters left laterally on NE trending cracks or offsetting right laterally on NW trending ones. The focal mechanism solution of earthquake shows that this is a pure strike-slip event, and two nodal planes in NW and NE directions had the same motion senses respectively as those of breakage associated with the earthquake. The long axis of the isoseismals and aftershock distributions are in NE direction,which is consistent with the strike of Luang Namtha fault. The 230-km-long Luang Namtha fault which starts from the border of China and Laos, runs through northern Laos, and terminates at Chiang Rai of Thailand is predominated by left-lateral strike-slip and active in late Quaternary, and two earthquakes over Ms 6.0 occurred along the fault in 1925 and 2007 respectively. This Mw 6.1 earthquake occurred at the southwestern end of the fault. All related features such as evident structural rupturing, elongated orientation of MMI and aftershock distribution,as well as the location of the epicenter,suggest that the Luang Namtha fault may be responsible for the 2014 Northern Thailand earthquake.     

Fault system of the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake and its aftershocks

Data recorded by a seismic network deployed the day after the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M6.8) in central Japan are used to determine the major source faults responsible for the mainshock and major aftershocks. Using this high-resolution seismic data, three major source faults are identified: two parallel faults dipping steeply to the west located 5 km apart, and the other dipping eastward and oriented perpendicular to the west-dipping faults. The analysis also reveals that the lateral variation in seismic velocity observed at the surface extends to a depth of 15 km, encompassing the source area of the mainshock. This strong heterogeneity of the crust, related to the complex geological and tectonic evolution of the area, is considered to be responsible for the prominent aftershock activity following the 2004 Niigata event.     

Earthquake geology of Kashmir Basin and its implications for future large earthquakes

Two major traces of active thrust faults were identified in the Kashmir Basin (KB) using satellite images and by mapping active geomorphic features. The ~N130°E strike of the mapped thrust faults is consistent with the regional ~NE–SW convergence along the Indian–Eurasian collision zone. The ~NE dipping thrust faults have uplifted the young alluvial fan surfaces at the SW side of the KB. This created a major tectono-geomorphic boundary along the entire strike length of the KB that is characterised by (1) a low relief with sediment-filled sluggish streams to the SE and (2) an uplifted region, with actively flowing streams to the SW. The overall tectono-geomorphic expression suggests that recent activity along these faults has tilted the entire Kashmir valley towards NE. Further, the Mw 7.6 earthquake, which struck Northern Pakistan and Kashmir on 8 October 2005, also suggests a similar strike and NE dipping fault plane, which could indicate that the KB fault is continuous over a distance of ~210 km and connects on the west with the Balakot Bagh fault. However, the geomorphic and the structural evidences of such a structure are not very apparent on the north-west, which thus suggest that it is not a contiguous structure with the Balakot Bagh fault. Therefore, it is more likely that the KB fault is an independent thrust, a possible ramp on the Main Himalayan Thrust, which has uplifting the SW portion of the KB and drowning everything to the NE (e.g. Madden et al. 2011). Furthermore, it seems very likely that the KB fault could be a right stepping segment of the Balakot Bagh fault, similar to Riasi Thrust, as proposed by Thakur et al. (2010). The earthquake magnitude is measured by estimating the fault rupture parameters (e.g. Wells and Coppersmith in Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002, 1994). Therefore, the total strike length of the mapped KB fault is ~120 km and by assuming a dip of 29° (Avouac et al. in Earth Planet Sci Lett 249:514–528, 2006) and a down-dip limit of 20 km, a Mw of 7.6 is possible on this fault.     

地下水位对近震和远震异常响应的比较——以汶川地震和苏门答腊地震为例

地震引起的深层地下水位异常具有多样性和复杂性的特点。为了进一步探索深层地下水位动态与地震作用过程之间的联系机制,发挥深层地下水位对地震活动的指示作用,以2008年汶川Ms8.0地震和2007年苏门答腊Ms8.5地震为研究背景,对川、滇、陕、甘、渝地区井水位对两次地震的响应特征进行了比较。研究发现:地下水位远震响应形态主要以振荡型和阶变型为主,异常出现的时间较晚;地下水位近震响应形态比较复杂,以阶变型、脉冲型以及振荡型为主,异常出现的时间几乎与地震的发生同步。根据深层地下水位对地壳应力的响应机理,分析了各典型井水位对远震和近震不同响应的原因。结果表明:地下水位对远震的响应主要是由于含水层介质受到地震波应力的作用;对近震异常响应原因比较复杂,主要是含水层介质受到区域构造应力和地震波应力的共同作用的结果,震中距越小,含水层受到震源构造应力场的控制作用越大。