A Review of “Breathing Space: How Allergies Shape Our Lives and Landscapes”

This paper expands the human capital model to compare the migration propensities of Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans within the U.S. between 1985 and 1990. Using the 5% PUMS from the 1990 U.S. Census, both aggregate migration streams and micro-level migration propensities are estimated for Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans. The effects of personal factors, the economic environment, and the presence of fellow nationals are examined in the context of larger geographic patterns, and discussed in terms of each nationality's immigration history and cultural context.

While many factors effect migration behavior similarly, there are notable differences in the way education, English fluency, and unemployment rate affect migration propensity of the native-born and foreign-born of each nationality. Differences are also apparent at the macro-level. Puerto Ricans show signs of dispersing out of New York; Mexicans are redistributing within the Southwest; and Cubans are re-concentrating in Florida. Both levels of analysis point to how immigration history, settlement patterns, and cultural context influence migration behavior. The results demonstrate the benefits of using an expanded human capital approach to explain migration differences, and highlight the diversity of population redistribution occurring within Hispanic nationalities.     

Immigration impacts on internal migration of the poor: 1990 census evidence for U.S. states

"This article presents newly-available migration data from the 1990 U.S. census to assess immigration and internal migration components as they affect state poverty populations. New immigrant waves are heavily focused on only a few 'port-of-entry' states. It is suggested that these immigrants have begun to impact upon internal migration into and out of these 'high immigration states', and have also altered the national system of internal migration patterns. This article addresses three questions: How do the magnitudes of poverty population out-migration from high immigration states compare with those of other states? Is this out-migration selective on particular social and demographic groups? Is immigration a significant determinant of internal migration of the poor population? The results of this analysis are consistent with the view that recent, focused immigration is associated with out-migration among a state's poor longer-term residents."     

中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局

老龄化和城市化是当今世界面临的两大人口问题。城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的空间组织形态,是老龄化的特殊区域。本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,综合应用地理探测器和变异系数等方法,清晰地刻画了中国20个城市群人口老龄化的空间格局及其变化特征,审视了人口老龄化变化的影响因素。结果表明：① 2000年中国城市群人口老龄化平均水平为7.32%,其中12个城市群的人口属于成年型,到2010年时人口老龄化平均水平已上升为9.00%,除珠三角与宁夏沿黄城市群外,其余18个城市群均步入了老年型人口,表现出明显的水平升级与类型替变态势。② 老龄化高值、较高值区域不断向内陆城市群跃迁。③ 城市群老龄化的增量和增速存在显著的区域差异,老龄化水平的低值区和高值区增量少、增速慢,而较低值、中值和较高值区增量多、增速快。总体上表现出区域性城市群——国家级城市群——地区性城市群老龄化速度递减的态势。④ 在城市群内部,老龄化分布格局表现出隆升—塌缩并存的现象。国家级城市群内部老龄化分布格局从隆升结构向塌缩结构转变,城市群中心区人口老龄化水平降低;而地区性城市群和区域性城市群内部老龄化分布格局则从均质结构向隆升结构转变,中心区人口老龄化水平上升。⑤ 城市群人口老龄化是内外因素综合影响的结果,基期老龄化程度、人口年龄结构替变和人口流动性是主导性因素。其中人口年龄结构的普遍性抬升是城市群老龄化升级与类型替变的关键,低龄人口迁入到城市群对人口老龄化则起到“稀释作用”,城市群发育阶段不同引致的聚集和扩散效应对老龄化则起到诱导作用。     

The demographic system of a Mediterranean island: Mykonos,Greece 1859-1959

"This paper is an attempt to examine the demographic distinctiveness of island populations. The population of the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1859 to 1959 is used. Using the results obtained from family reconstitution and inverse projection the inter-relations of the major demographic components are described. The pre-transitional demographic system of Mykonos was found to have been characterised by the combination of low mortality and low marital though moderately high overall fertility. The resulting high population growth was counterbalanced by high emigration which kept the island population almost constant. Mortality and fertility experienced parallel and rapid decline. In both pre- and transitional Mykonos fertility rather than mortality seems to have been the main factor responsible for the changes in population growth. The findings point to a demographic distinctiveness of Mediterranean island populations."     

The selection of internal migration models for European regions

"A full multiregional projection model requires migration data that are simultaneously classified by age and gender and region of origin and region of destination. Except for a very small number of regions, these data requirements are so high that aggregation of the data (which is equivalent to simplification of the model) is called for. This paper investigates the extent to which the full internal migration matrix can be simplified without seriously affecting the performance of the resulting multiregional model. Using IPF (iterative proportional fitting) methods, a log-linear analysis of alternative model specifications is made, using data for Italy, the Netherlands and the UK....A reasonable balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony is found for the model in which time interacts with the main effects only (i.e. with age/sex, with origin and with destination)."     

EXPLANATIONS FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF COUNTERURBANIZATION IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY *

Evaluating yearly net migration for the Federal Republic of Germany establishes the importance of demographic restructuring and government policies as explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon. Counterurbanization, the spatial demographic deconcentration of regional population, is measured as an inverse relationship between the net migration rate and population sizes of functional urban regions. A counterurbanization pattern filtered-down from older to younger age-groups of the population, and appears related to an increasing preference for small-sized regions with natural amenities. For foreigners, a counterurbanization direction of movement can be explained by changes in immigration laws. While counterurbanization may be slowing down during the 1980s in certain developed countries, such as the United States, in the Federal Republic the phenomenon intensifies throughout the 1970–84 time period. Based on broad national demographic changes in combination with agespecific patterns of movement, this strong counterurbanization trend should continue well into the future.     

Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney,Australia

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.     

Responding to Negative Public Attitudes towards Immigration through Analysis and Policy: regional and unemployment dimensions

ABSTRACT

This paper examines two key dimensions of the impact of immigration for Australia and related policy aspects. One is sub-national and the other is national. They are, first, the regional location aspects of immigration and, second, the aggregate unemployment implications of immigration. These are chosen so as to focus on two important issues that condition public attitudes towards immigration. In relation to the first, there is a common positive view that channelling migration towards regional areas assists regional development and reduces pressure on metropolitan areas. The paper reviews regional concepts embodied in Australian immigration policy and the ways in which visa arrangements have implemented policies geared towards the regional dispersal of immigrants. Using official data, it discusses the demographic impacts of these policies and, in particular, considers the extent to which immigrants to regional Australia remain there over the longer term. In relation to unemployment, a common concern is that immigrants take jobs from local workers. The paper examines—using statistical regression methodology—the relationship between immigration and national aggregate unemployment in Australia. It evaluates the net consequences of immigration for both existing residents and new arrivals together. The paper concludes that, with good policy design in each case, regional location encouragement can be effective for immigrants and that immigrants need not take more jobs than they create. The analysis demonstrates that mixed-methods approaches to important social science issues can be productive, and helpful also for policy. Evidence, such as that presented in this paper, offers a powerful basis from which to counter negative public and political discourses surrounding immigration in contemporary Australia.     

中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征

随着中国流动人口规模快速增长和影响日趋深远,各级政府在制订经济社会发展战略、区域与城市规划等各类重大决策时,亟需准确地认识和把握中国流动人口的空间分布特征及不同地域类型。本文在综合比较现有流动人口地域类型划分方法优缺点的基础上,提出了综合考虑净迁移率和总迁移率的复合型指标及其修正方法,并根据中国第五次人口普查分区县的流动人口数据,运用以上多种划分方法实证研制出中国流动人口地域类型的多种划分方案,并进行了比较分析。结果表明：① 综合考虑净迁移率和总迁移率的复合指标法,可以同时测度区域流动人口的方向性与活跃度,兼具以上两种单一性指标法的特色和优势,特别是能清晰地分辨出区域流入人口与流出人口的规模均比较大的平衡型活跃区这种独特类型,具有显著的优势。② 进一步考虑份额指标的修正型复合指标法,能有效地消除因区域人口总量过小或过大而导致流动人口活跃度被高估或低估的偏差,划分结果更加符合实际。③ 中国流动人口地域类型的空间分布格局与其自然环境、人口密度及经济社会发展水平的区域差异关系密切。中国各类流动人口活跃区主要分布在位处第三阶梯和大于800 mm等降雨线的东部季风区,其人口密度及经济社会发展水平相对较高。     

The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.     

The Variegated Landscape of Local Immigration Policies in the United States

Hundreds of municipalities and counties across the United States have proposed or implemented immigration policies at the local level, ranging from "sanctuary" policies to those designed to exclude undocumented immigrants. Data collected on these policies are presented, and statistically analyzed at the municipal level to interrogate existing hypotheses about factors driving these policy decisions. Municipalities experiencing rapid growth of their foreign-born population and with a high percentage of owner-occupied housing are more likely to introduce exclusionary policies, whereas municipalities with better educated populations are more likely to adopt inclusionary policies. The location of municipalities in the U.S. South and outside central cities is also associated with exclusionary policies. Textual analysis of policy documents for selected municipalities provides insight into why similarly located places adopt contrasting policies. Local ordinances reflect contrasting local imaginaries of race, nation, and place.     

上海市常住人口增长趋势研究院基于劳动年龄人口的情景模拟

国内外大城市的快速发展很大程度上依赖于劳动力的充分供给,制定合适的人口发展战略及政策至关重要。本文基于队列要素法,以劳动年龄人口规模作为重要变量对上海市人口规模进行情景模拟,依据结果对上海市未来常住人口发展趋势进行判断。结果显示,外来劳动年龄人口对上海市未来发展有重要支撑作用,上海应该给予外来迁入人口更多的关注和肯定,而不是盲目地限制;同时,判定上海市2040年常住人口规模将增长到3000万～3870万之间。本方法可以广泛应用于与上海具有相似人口年龄结构和人口规模变化趋势的大型城市和特大型城市,对中小型城市的人口规模模拟和政策制定也具有一定的参考意义。     

Immigrant Concentration and Domestic Migrant Dispersal: Is Movement to Nonometropolitan Areas “White flight”?

This article examines linkages between recent domestic out-migration from immigrant gateway metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan migration gains, based on data of the 1990 census, 1996 Current Population Survey, and population estimates for the 1990–1996 period from the Bureau of Census. Our analysis of these data suggests that there is a mirror image of migration patterns between high immigration metropolitan area losses and nonmetropolitan area gains. This is especially evident in the West with the relationship between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas' losses on the one hand, and the region's nonmetropolitan gains on the other. While pre-elderly and elderly retirees have contributed to these nonmetropolitan gains, much of it is attributable to the destination choices of suburban-like populations—Whites with children, not college educated, and with lower incomes—that have been leaving high immigration metropolitan areas. This new, more dispersed form of “White flight” holds the potential for reinvigorating smaller, nonmetropolitan communities, but creating, as well, new demographic divisions across space.     

Immigrants,Germans and national identity in the new Germany: some policy issues

"This paper considers how the role and status of Germany's diverse immigrant population has been affected by its new geopolitical situation, in particular unification, since 1989.... The paper shows how the integration prospects for Germany's older immigrant populations have been dented by the combination of economic restructuring and a huge upsurge in new types of immigration. Prominent among the latter are ethnic German resettlers (or Aussiedler), and the paper examines how these immigrants find themselves in a weak position.... The paper concludes that, although there would appear to be no major labour shortages within the economy, Germany has to develop a more extensive range of migration policies to cater for the huge demand for economically motivated migration. The alternative will inevitably be a further growth in illegal migration, which would not be helpful to the position of established immigrant populations."     

The regional types of China’s floating population: Identification methods and spatial patterns

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China, it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population, this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then, the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show: (1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously, and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method, by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights, can effectively correct the over- or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment, population density and socio- economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation, more than 800 mm precipitation, rather higher population densities and economic development levels.     

中国流动人口地域类型——划分方法及空间分布(英文)

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China,it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population,this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then,the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show:(1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously,and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method,by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights,can effectively correct the over-or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment,population density and socio-economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation,more than 800 mm precipitation,rather higher population densities and economic development levels.     

基于综合城镇化视角的省际人口迁移格局空间分析

采用第五、第六次全国人口普查数据,基于流出、流入“双向”视角解析人口迁移格局及演变过程;采用空间计量模型,阐释综合城镇化及各城镇化分量值对省际人口迁移影响的空间效应。研究结果表明：① 2000~2010年省际人口迁移量成倍增长,人口迁出区域空间不断扩散,迁入区域空间虽无明显变化,但内部差异性变化明显;② 省际人口迁移存在明显的空间依赖性特征,省际人口净迁入率变化明显受周边地区的正向影响;③ 综合城镇化率变化对省际人口迁入有着重要作用。④ 人口、经济和土地城镇化率变化对人口净迁入率变化具有显著影响,且经济城镇化仍为影响省际人口迁移变化的主导因素;社会城镇化率的影响并不明显。     

比例性偏离份额空间模型推演及应用

通过在模型分量结构中置换共享分量、嵌入区域分量和重组残差分量实现了区域分量和结构分量的初步分离,又通过增速标准化处理分别排除了产业结构和规模差异对区域分量和结构分量测算的影响,实现了偏离份额分析从区域考察期增量中分离出区域经济结构差异和规模差异对经济增长贡献的目标。新推演的结构分量真正实现了区域经济结构差异的横纵向比较,尤其是通过同时测算区域产业规模结构和增速结构差异揭示了区域规模和增速占优产业的集中分布情况。此外,为已有的20种分解结构分类补充了8种分解结构,并以环比式动态算法下的比例性偏离份额空间模型对安徽省各地级市2000-2010年经济增长进行了分析。     

THE GEOGRAPHY PLACEMENT SEMINAR: A COURSE SYLLABUS

This article examines linkages between recent domestic out-migration from immigrant gateway metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan migration gains, based on data of the 1990 census, 1996 Current Population Survey, and population estimates for the 1990–1996 period from the Bureau of Census. Our analysis of these data suggests that there is a mirror image of migration patterns between high immigration metropolitan area losses and nonmetropolitan area gains. This is especially evident in the West with the relationship between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas' losses on the one hand, and the region's nonmetropolitan gains on the other. While pre-elderly and elderly retirees have contributed to these nonmetropolitan gains, much of it is attributable to the destination choices of suburban-like populations—Whites with children, not college educated, and with lower incomes—that have been leaving high immigration metropolitan areas. This new, more dispersed form of “White flight” holds the potential for reinvigorating smaller, nonmetropolitan communities, but creating, as well, new demographic divisions across space.     

Main directions of development of the Baku urban agglomeration

An analysis is made of the historical development and formation of the major Baku urban agglomeration. The theoretical and methodological foundations of population distributions are considered, and an analysis is made of the influence of the natural, historical and economic factors on the formation of this region. The historical development of the major urban agglomeration and productive forces is investigated, which involves a high level of concentration of production and mining industries as well as with infrastructural development. A study is made of the dynamics of demographic processes, the characteristics of natural and migration movement of the population, and of the age/gender and marriage/family population composition which form the social-demographic structure of population and have an important practical significance in the determination of long-term development of the Baku agglomeration. The structural and dynamical formations of new settlements of Baku depended on their functional characteristics as well as on the distance from the center. An analysis is made of the Soviet and post-Soviet periods of population growth in the agglomeration. The dynamics of the demographic processes of the population in the agglomeration shows that the growth rates of the settlements in the outer zone are substantially higher than in Baku itself; therefore, pendulum migration is taking shape between the city and the suburb, which creates serious problems. Urbanization and its influence on the settlement process, and the problems of development of urban settlements are investigated. The ways of long-term socioeconomic development, and the transformation of the territorial organization of the Baku agglomeration are outlined. Also, an analysis is made of the population dynamics and formation of labor resources, and the problems of using and employing them in the region are considered. Based on the research done, recommendations are made for the regulation of demographic processes across the territory under investigation.