基于ICT的中国城市间人口日常流动空间格局——以百度迁徙为例

随着互联网时代的来临,网络数据已越来越成为表征居民地理行为的重要载体,用户迁移、社交网络、移动通信等地理行为大数据成为城市联系研究的重要数据来源。“百度迁徙”大数据通过LBS技术,全程、动态、即时和直观地记录了城市之间的人口日常流动轨迹。通过采集“百度迁徙”数据库中2015年一季度（2月7日至5月16日）国内369个城市之间的逐日的人口流动数据,分“季度平均、春运期间（春节前）、春运期间（春节后）、劳动节、周末和工作日”6个时间段,从人流集散层级、人流集散网络体系的分层集聚、人口日常流动空间格局及其与“胡焕庸线”之间的关系等角度分析各时间段的城市之间的人口日常流动相关特征与空间格局。研究发现,“百度迁徙”大数据清晰地显示了春运期间中部和沿海地区之间的人口流动格局。人流集散中心主要分布在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝4大城市群中,并与其城市等级有较强的一致性。人口日常流动集散体系呈明显的分层集聚,京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝和乌鲁木齐5大集散体系在各时间段基本得到体现,而华中、东北、西南和福建沿海等地区并未出现高层级集散城市和高等级集散体系,与这些区域在国家区域发展战略中的地位在一定程度上不相匹配。“胡焕庸线”能较好地反映国家层面的城市之间人口日常流动格局,反映了地理环境对城市间人口日常流动的深刻影响。城市之间的人口流动强度是体现区域经济联系强度、城市等级和网络结构等的重要指标,此项研究可为形成国家区域经济发展新格局和促进区域平衡发展提供参考。     

中国城市间人口流动空间格局的网络分析——以国庆-中秋长假和腾讯迁徙数据为例

“腾讯迁徙”大数据基于位置服务,实时、动态、完整、系统地描述了用户日常出行活动的轨迹。通过采集“腾讯迁徙”数据平台中2017年国庆-中秋长假期间国内299个城市之间的逐日人口流动数据,分“出行期、旅途期、返程期”3个时间段,利用复杂网络分析方法,从人口流动集散层级、集散网络体系的分层集聚、人口流动空间格局、网络空间特征等角度分析各时间段城市间的人口流动特征与空间格局。结果表明,腾讯迁徙大数据直观地揭示了国庆-中秋期间中国各地级城市间人口的迁移规律,3个时段人口的净流入均呈现十字形骨架支撑的菱形分布,人流集散中心主要集中在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝四大城市群,与城市等级有较强的一致性。人口流动集散体系呈明显的分层集聚,城市行政级别的高低与人口流动影响力存在一定的正相关关系,大部分城市人口流动处于“相对平衡”状态。人口流动空间格局呈现出明显的核心-边缘结构,大理-鹤岗一线是人口流动强度空间分布的显著分界线,以此线为界,城市网络呈现东密西疏的分布特征和东部并联、西部串联的网络关联特征。人口流动网络总体表现出“小世界”网络特征,局部具有较明显的“社区”结构特征,聚为2个国家级、2个区域级和3个地区级社区。     

Recent trends in human migrations: the case of the Venezuelan Andes

Changes in world capitalism caused prices of traditional raw materials to fall and new energy demands to arise at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. The Andean countries witnessed the fall in the value of their exports and began to receive large flows of foreign investment in mining and industry. Consequently, urban economies were strengthened and demographic patterns were changed. This led to the internal migrations and to a process of social change. These consequences are summarized from relevant studies focusing on Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. Since the 1960s a compendium of information has become available which highlights the causes of the migration, migration patterns, the composition of migratory movements, and the mechanisms that the migrant uses to establish himself/herself in the city. Preston (1969) distinguished 2 migratory patterns in Ecuador: rural to urban, with migratory flows from the rural areas to urban centers and new industrial cities that experienced development and high demand for unskilled labor at comparatively high wages: and rural to rural, based on the movement of population from depressed rural areas to other areas in which programs for colonization or commercial agriculture have been promoted. In a study of Colombia, McGreevey (1968) identifies the lack of cultivatable land, rural violence in certain departments, and other economic and family causes as the principal factors that induced migrations to the cities. The study emphasizes that the predominant model of movement relates to "fill in" migration. The spatial mobility of the Venezuelan Andean population was initially outlined in a voluminous report on economic and social problems of the region (1954). The study indicates that during the intercensal period 1941-50 cities grew much more rapidly than rural "municipos" and that the drive to find employment and earn a living were the most important motives in the movement of peasants to the cities. All of the studies identified that use demographic, economic, or phychosocial approaches have provided partial explanations of the current status of Andean migrations. The explanations they offer, by not transcending the current reality of the migrants, overlook the historical traits of internal migration. Migratory flows do not spring up suddenly. They result from specific socio-political circumstances which, when closely linked to demographic evidence, serve as a basis for understanding the process. Review of studies on internal migration in the Northern Andes, as presented here, reveals a series of distinguishing characteristics: there are 5 migratory patterns--rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to urban, seasonal worker migration, and return migration, and the predominant pattern has been rural to urban; the demographic data show the importance of rural migrants to urban growth in the region and a complementary loss of population in the rural areas; depopulation of the countryside has been selective; and there is a marked disparity in employment remuneration between rural and urban areas.     

基于百度慧眼的中国收缩城市分类研究

收缩城市是快速城市化过程中不可忽视的一类城市,按照城市人口变化格局,开展收缩城市分类研究,是发现城市人口“空洞”及变化特征的重要一环。国际上将收缩城市主要分为穿孔型、圈饼型和边缘型,中国的收缩城市究竟包括哪些类型?尚缺少研究证实。本文以中国实体城市为分析单位,利用百度慧眼2016年11月─2018年11月200 m格网的常住人口数据,发现常住人口减少的实体城市共1506座,占实体城市总量（3022座）的49.8%。选取人口较为密集且在研究时段内出现严重收缩现象的126座收缩城市为研究样本,探讨中国收缩城市分类问题。分析表明：126座收缩城市样本多分布在秦岭淮河一线以北地区,包括穿孔型、全局型、局部型、圈饼型、边缘型等5种类型。其中,穿孔型收缩城市最多,共47座（37.3%）,为中国收缩城市的主导类型,主要分布于黑龙江、内蒙古、甘肃;全局型收缩城市有33座（26.2%）,主要分布于甘肃、陕西;局部型收缩城市有25座（19.8%）,主要分布在黑龙江、内蒙古;圈饼型收缩城市有18座（14.3%）,主要分布在内蒙古;边缘型收缩城市有3座。“重速度、轻质量”的前半程城镇化,以“增长”为主导的城市规划执念,资源枯竭或经济转型导致传统工业企业衰落解体,政府主动调整下的产业转移等是产生穿孔型收缩城市的主因。研究为政府精细调整城市发展重心、优化土地利用结构、提高城市宜居性、开展收缩语境下的城市规划与设计,提供了科学依据。     

中国居民城际出行网络的空间结构特征

利用腾讯迁徙数据构建居民城际出行网络,分析了不同时段、不同交通方式下中国居民城际出行网络的空间结构特征以及主要城市群的对内、对外居民城际出行模式。研究发现,2018年中国居民城际出行网络呈“东密西疏”空间分布格局,形成以京、沪、穗—深、蓉—渝等高中心性城市为顶点的顶层跨区级“钻石型”网络结构。“春运”时段城际出行的重心相较日常出行更偏向于西南,居民城际日均出行规模亦高于其他时段,特殊节假日城际出行具有显著的空间邻近效应。不同出行方式下的出行人口、出行范围和出行交通网络差异显著,航空、铁路、公路出行分别承担国家级、区域级和地方级城际出行的人口集散。主要城市群对内出行网络呈现“核心—邻近—边缘”空间格局,以多中心双核出行模式为主,对外出行网络则呈现“跨区—邻域—地方”的格局,以单中心单核出行模式为主。     

1995—2015年中国人口迁移的时空变化特征

本文利用人口普查数据,估算了1995—2015年中国地（市）间人口O-D迁移流和迁移率,结合GIS空间分析和社会网络分析方法,揭示了20年间中国人口迁移的时空变化特征。研究发现：① 中国人口迁移由相对不活跃、局部地区参与的“低活性时代”,逐步走向相对活跃、绝大多数地区参与的“高活性时代”。② 人口迁移地域类型的时空演化过程呈现出各活跃型地（市）不断扩散,而非活跃型地（市）大幅缩减的特点。③ 人口迁移网络以“胡焕庸线”为界,东、西两侧迁移流“东密西疏”且差异悬殊,这一空间格局具有很强的稳定性和顽健性。④ 在人口省内迁移持续增强,以及跨省迁移中沿海三大城市群吸引力的“此消彼长”和西南地区吸引力不断增强的背景下,东中西部地区的人口迁移流场结构表现为：沿海地区主要城市群内部分化和影响范围减弱,中部地区（除湖北省）未能演化出以省为单元的独立社区,西部地区则是西北相对稳定而西南持续变动。     

转型时期广州市社会区分析

运用主成分分析和聚类分析方法对广州2000年第五次人口普查的200个反映社会空间结构的变量进行分析,提取出影响广州市社会空间结构的5个主因子,据此将广州市划分为7类社会区。与1985年的广州社会区研究对比,归纳出基于老城区发展的、基于工业和教育飞地发展的、基于农村社会区发展的社会区演变的三种模式,从转型期制度与政策变化、历史因素、政府对城市管理与调控等方面分析了社会区分异的机制,总结了转型期中国大城市的社会空间结构模型,比较了中西方社会区结构的差异,并从职业分异、家庭生命周期、外来人口等方面对广州未来社会区的演变做了分析。     

改革开放以来中国国内人口迁移及其研究

从人口迁移进程的变化、人口迁移的主要原因与迁移选择和迁移方式、迁移人口对城市社会经济活动的参与及影响等方面,综述中国改革开放以来的人口迁移进程及研究成果。大量的实证研究,使人们对中国国内人口迁移有了日益清晰的认识,但多数仍停留在国外人口迁移理论的框架之内。在人口迁移与加快户籍制度改革、与城市居民就业和产业结构调整的关系,及迁移人口对区域社会经济发展差异分析比较的影响等方面还需进行深入研究。     

Female migration to Taipei: process and adaptation

Women form an increasing proportion of migrants and of the non-agricultural labor force in Taiwan. However, many questions regarding female migration in Taiwan have remained unanswered since the focus of the migration literature in the past has been on male migration. This paper examines the decision process of rural-urban migration and adaptation of rural female migrants to the Taipei metropolis. The analysis is based on interviews of 96 female migrants who have moved to Taipei from villages. The reasons for migration are severalfold. With rapid expansion of employment in the manufacturing and urban service sectors, women are attracted to urban occupations, most of which require unskilled labor. Migrants are also motivated by psycho-social reasons. The "glamour" and "convenience" of city and greater chances for further education through work-study programs are all perceived by migrants to provide alternatives to hard and unrewarding farm lives. Though the initiative and final decision to move come from the migrants themselves, most only do so, however, with the consent and advice of their parents. The choice of moving to Taipei, rather than some other city, is mainly influenced by friends or relatives who are alrady there. Their initial jobs and accommodations are arranged by friends and relatives. The majority of women are employed in unskilled or semi-skilled occupations. Even though they change jobs frequently in order to find better employment terms and pay, they experience limited upward mobility. Homesickness, unfamiliarity with the city environment, limited resoureces, and social lives are major problems for the rural female. Freequent home vistits are made in between jobs to relieve themselves of homesickness and the pressures of city life. Once settled, they do not segreate themselves by village origin in their occupation or palces of residence in the city, but they have a tendency to interact socially with other migrants of rural origin rather than city people.     

郊区化进程中北京城市内部迁居及相关空间行为——基于千份问卷调查的分析

利用千份问卷调查资料 ,研究居住郊区化进程中北京城市居民的迁居行为、第二住宅与季节性郊区化 ,以及包括通勤、出行和购物等在内的相关空间行为。研究表明 ,北京本地城市化和近郊化的特征明显 ,单位福利分房和原居住地拆迁是居民迁居的主要原因 ,居民职住分离现象十分普遍 ,传统单位制下职住合一的空间格局已被打破 ;城市第二住宅多用于商业出租等用途 ,表现出一定程度的季节性郊区化特点 ,但尚未达到规模集聚的程度 ;在居住郊区化的进程中 ,北京城市居民的通勤、出行和购物等空间行为均有一定程度的变化。     

跨江发展下杭州市企业迁移空间模式及影响机制

基于企业微观主体视角,运用UCINET社会网络分析和ROST内容分析法,对杭州市企业迁移的空间模式和区位选择进行探讨,并揭示其影响机制。研究表明：① 杭州市企业迁移分为平缓波动期、低速增长期、大规模迁移期、迁移成熟期4个阶段,与杭州市跨江发展历程基本相契合。② 杭州市企业总体迁出呈中心-外围衰减分散布局模式,迁出地点主要集中于西湖区、下城区及拱墅区,迁出企业主要为制造业,批发零售业等;总体迁入呈中心、外围集聚模式,迁入地主集中于西湖区、余杭区及滨江区,迁入企业主要为信息技术服务业、科学研究和技术服务业。③ 企业的自身属性与外部环境对杭州市企业迁移有着重要影响,企业异质性在很大程度上决定着企业迁移的方向;跨江发展战略中的政府推动、市场运作、企业参与、文化根植等外部因素对企业迁移的空间选择有着极其重要的作用。     

“双循环”新格局与京津冀高质量协同发展——基于价值链分工和要素流动视角

京津冀地区经历了从竞争、合作到迈向高质量协同发展的过程,在“双循环”新发展格局下,京津冀协同发展面临着新挑战和新目标,亟需实现创新驱动经济转型。本文从价值链分工和要素流动等方面入手,系统梳理了京津冀在“外循环”和“国内大循环”中的价值链地位和辐射能力,以及以“京津冀小循环”为表现的京津冀协同发展现状。结果发现,京津冀在“外循环”中没有形成世界级城市群相对应的技术分工和知识生产能力,处于价值链较低附加值环节;在“国内大循环”中,京津冀占据价值链高附加值环节,并向外输出技术和资本,但吸引和辐射力有限。进一步探究发现,京津冀在“外循环”中相对边缘化的重要原因之一是“京津冀小循环”尚未打通,创新成果难以在城市群内部转化,从而未能实现“创新驱动经济增长新引擎”的城市群定位目标。下一阶段京津冀城市群应以水平知识链、梯度创新链为驱动,构建城市群垂直产业链。具体来说,“内循环”中应着力打造“北京研发—天津高端制造—河北物流服务”协同格局,“外循环”中构建以知识转移和市场突破为核心的“北京创新集聚溢出—河北综合制造—天津研发、航运”分工模式,逐步实现“内循环”反哺“外循环”。     

Determinants and characteristics of female migration: a case study of Salem City in Tamil Nadu,India

A random sample of 521 male and 481 female migrants surveyed in Salem city in Tamil Nadu, India, during 1980-1981 was analyzed on the basis of a classification related to reasons (association, marriage, distress, and voluntary) for migration. Women were found to outnumber males in associational migration, both in rural to urban and urban to urban streams. They also formed almost all the marriage migrants. They were more numerous in distress migration as well. There were, however, comparatively few women among voluntary migrants. The incidence of illiteracy among migrant women was generally high, except for voluntary migrants who had completed high school. The share of working women was not negligible, but in most cases present work status was achieved after migrating.     

Primacy or Pluralism: Future Directions in Economic Geography

Rates of geographical mobility vary greatly, and fairly predictably, across the life course. Our analysis of special county-to-county migration tabulations of Census 2000 data discloses that, when flows are disaggregated by age, radically different patterns of net population redistribution are taking place upward and downward within the national urban hierarchy. The movements at the late-career, empty-nester, and retirement stage are the most “demographically effective” or unidirectional. The elderly fleeing large metropolitan areas have been congregating in micropolitan and rural counties with special climatic and other natural amenities. The opposite net flow is found for younger adults, who have been flocking into megametropolitan conurbations. At the midcareer stage, the net movement is from larger to medium metropolitan areas. We detail the age articulation of county-to-county migration flows with novel graphical portrayals and statistical measures. We give some thoughts on the relationship between intergenerational dependency and migration trends, and we speculate about whether the current patterns of age-articulated movement up and down the urban hierarchy will continue as the baby boom retires and the echo cohorts come of age.     

The spatial patterns and determinants of internal migration of older adults in China from 1995 to 2015

Although China was one of the countries with the fastest-growing aging population in the world, limited scholarly attention has been paid to migration among older adults in China. The full picture of their migration in the entire country over time remains unknown. This study examines the spatial patterns of older interprovincial migration flows and their drivers in China over the period 1995 to 2015, using four waves of census data and intercensal population sample survey data. Results from eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial regressions indicate that older adults tend to migrate away from low cost-of-living rural areas to high cost-of-living urban and rural areas, moving away from areas with extreme temperature differences. The location of their grandchildren is among the most important attractions. Our findings suggest that family-oriented migration is more common than amenity-led migration among retired Chinese older adults, and the cost-of-living is an indicator of economic opportunities for adult children and the quality of senior care services.     

DEFINING JOB CONCENTRATIONS: THE LOS ANGELES CASE

This paper aims to develop a simple technique for defining employment concentrations, suitable for application to any large North American urban area, and to implement it for a major area. Following a review of earlier work, the 1990 distribution patterns of population, resident workers, and jobs in greater Los Angeles are mapped, summarized in tabular form, and compared. After a consideration of alternative approaches, employment concentrations are delineated using census tracts, with the 1990 employment/residence ratio as chief criterion, rather than job density. Of 120 concentrations defined, 11 have more than 100,000 jobs each and 28 have at least 50,000. Downtown Los Angeles, still the region's largest concentration, now is rivaled by the relatively new Irvine. Comparable 1980 data show job growth in most concentrations, although increases Downtown have been modest. The industry profiles of the largest concentrations vary widely, especially as to the significance of manufacturing, which dominates some concentrations but is relatively unimportant in others. The data are inconclusive as to whether jobs in the region became more or less concentrated during the 1980s. The paper also questions two of Garreau's "edge cities" criteria by showing that most such developments in the Los Angeles region are not wholly new and already existed as job concentrations 30 years ago.     

National and regional population trends in the USSR, 1979-89: preliminary results from the 1989 census

"This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979-89 was roughly similar to that of 1970-79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970-79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence."     

中国城市群研究进展与热点的可视化分析

改革开放以来,中国城市群集聚能力不断增强,吸引了大量研究者的关注。基于文献统计分析方法,借助CiteSpace、VOSviewer等可视化工具,挖掘国内城市群研究状况,对国内城市群研究特点、核心作者、明星机构、研究热点等进行归纳和评述,旨在为我国城市群研究提供参考。结论如下：中国城市群研究前期发展缓慢,后期发展迅速;出现了大批核心作者,并形成了以这些作者为主体的合作网络;相关科研机构发文量2005年后大增,排在前列的有中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所等明星机构;国内城市群研究主题和内容不断丰富,研究方法和技术也不断完善,呈现从定性向定量模型转变的趋势,研究热点依次集中在“空间结构”、“经济联系”、“城镇化”、“引力模型”,并出现从东南沿海地区往内陆转移的趋势;最后对中国城市群研究进行回顾与评述,并对未来城市群研究内容、数据方法、实践层面等进行展望。     

中国人口迁移的区域差异与流场特征

通过2000年人口普查省际迁移数据的分析,揭示了当代中国人口迁移的区域分异性,以及不同原因的流场新模式。研究发现,中国人口迁移进入高活性、高能力的新阶段;东中西部人口迁移的不平衡性不断加剧,“中部塌陷”不仅是经济意义上的,而且也是社会意义上的;人口省际迁移的辐合流场与辐散流场在进一步发展,珠江三角洲是最大的迁移辐合中心;东北与山东的对流渐趋消失,西北取代东北成为非沿海区域新的人口引力中心;以秦岭-淮河线东段和黑河-腾冲线南段为界,人口迁移分裂为东南和西北两大“流域”。就业迁移的优势程度在进一步加大,市场取代计划成为人口和人才流动的第一动力;婚姻迁移的主流方向是西南贫困山区指向华东农村,形成了西南“喀斯特新娘输出区”。     

“后地段时代”我国房地产开发

由于社会经济发展和城市建设深化,房地产开发和城市建设的影响因子日益多元化,使得以地段为标志的区位因素在房地产开发和城市发展建设中的地位正趋于弱化,"唯地段论"日益面临挑战。在批评"唯地段论"的基础上,提出了"后地段时代"概念,分析了"后地段时代"房地产区位弱化的成因,探讨了"后地段时代"我国房地产开发受到的影响及调整思路。