中国人口户籍迁移与非户籍迁移的比较

现阶段中国的人口迁移分为户籍迁移和非户籍迁移两类,对二者的比较和整合分析有助于深化对国内人口迁移的理论认识,也便于与国际同类研究相衔接。本文估算了2011—2017年中国地级及以上城市的户籍与非户籍净迁移人口数量,分析和比较了二者的基本空间格局特征及影响因素。结果表明：户籍和非户籍迁移具有总体相似的空间正相关和内陆分异的局部聚类特征,东部沿海三大城市群间具有明显的差异性,两类迁移人口在城市间的分布特征不同且非户籍迁移数量的极差比户籍迁移更大,两类迁移的新增数量均与已有流动人口存量正相关;新增户籍迁移受经济机会差异影响明显,一些经济水平较高的大城市凭借人才政策吸引人口户籍迁入,非户籍迁移主要响应教育、医疗等公共服务差异;户籍迁移的市场化特征随落户限制的放松而不断强化,但存在城市和人口的双向选择性,非户籍迁移出现从经济性迁移转向舒适性迁移的趋势。最后从理论和政策角度探讨了中国人口迁移转型与户籍制度改革方向。     

中国农业转移人口的户籍迁移家庭化决策

积极推动农业转移人口落户城镇是新型城镇化建设的重点任务。随着多数流入地城市落户门槛的降低和人口流动模式的改变,农业转移人口户籍迁移决策的影响因素从单一制度门槛向人口多元需求转变。本文从家庭决策的视角构建中国农业转移人口户籍迁移的分析框架,重点关注城乡权益交换对户籍迁移家庭化的影响。基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的实证研究发现,农业转移人口户籍迁移的决策主体是家庭,决策目标是家庭利益最大化,决策机制是户籍关联的城市和乡村权益间的权衡。具体地,户籍迁移存在“家庭团聚效应”,即夫妻一方获取城市户口会提升另一方落户城市的主观意愿。农村三权都存在降低户籍迁移意愿的“滞留效应”;同时,更多的农村权益意味着乡-城权益互换的成本提升,如果夫妻一方已经获得城市户口,另一方落户城市带来的权益增长将远低于放弃农村户口的权益损失,导致多数农业转移人口家庭在利益权衡之下选择“城乡分离”的户籍策略以实现城乡权益的总和最大化,最终户籍迁移呈现出逆家庭化的特征。     

Female migration to Taipei: process and adaptation

Women form an increasing proportion of migrants and of the non-agricultural labor force in Taiwan. However, many questions regarding female migration in Taiwan have remained unanswered since the focus of the migration literature in the past has been on male migration. This paper examines the decision process of rural-urban migration and adaptation of rural female migrants to the Taipei metropolis. The analysis is based on interviews of 96 female migrants who have moved to Taipei from villages. The reasons for migration are severalfold. With rapid expansion of employment in the manufacturing and urban service sectors, women are attracted to urban occupations, most of which require unskilled labor. Migrants are also motivated by psycho-social reasons. The "glamour" and "convenience" of city and greater chances for further education through work-study programs are all perceived by migrants to provide alternatives to hard and unrewarding farm lives. Though the initiative and final decision to move come from the migrants themselves, most only do so, however, with the consent and advice of their parents. The choice of moving to Taipei, rather than some other city, is mainly influenced by friends or relatives who are alrady there. Their initial jobs and accommodations are arranged by friends and relatives. The majority of women are employed in unskilled or semi-skilled occupations. Even though they change jobs frequently in order to find better employment terms and pay, they experience limited upward mobility. Homesickness, unfamiliarity with the city environment, limited resoureces, and social lives are major problems for the rural female. Freequent home vistits are made in between jobs to relieve themselves of homesickness and the pressures of city life. Once settled, they do not segreate themselves by village origin in their occupation or palces of residence in the city, but they have a tendency to interact socially with other migrants of rural origin rather than city people.     

中国大都市新移民的住房模式与影响机制

利用在广州、东莞、沈阳、成都、杭州、郑州6 市进行配额抽样调查(2008-2009 年) 所获得的3168 份问卷,采用Logistic 回归分析等计量方法,研究快速城市化下中国大都市“新移民”的住房状况、模式与机制。研究表明,城市新移民已经成为一个日趋分化的复合群体,可分为劳力型移民、智力型移民、投资型移民三类,三类新移民住房状况存在较大差异。总体上,新移民人均住房面积为20.69 m²,其中智力型新移民的人均住房面积最高(24.87 m²/人),劳力型新移民的最低(16.26 m²/人)。就住房设施条件而言,新移民的设施指数为0.35,水平较低;其中投资型新移民的设施条件最好,智力型新移民的设施条件次之,劳力型新移民最差。经过多年市场化和户籍制度改革,社会经济要素对于新移民住房模式(购房或租房)的影响越来越大,但当前各类新移民的住房模式主要由制度因素(户口) 所决定,职业因素对新移民住房模式的影响尚不显著。不过,职业对新移民租房的类型选择具有较大影响。此外,影响新移民住房设施水平的主要因素包括户口、收入水平、教育水平、婚姻状况、年龄和新移民类型等多个方面,其中户口仍是决定性因素。     

中国农业转移人口市民化的空间特征与影响因素

本文利用第6 次人口普查数据和公安部门登记数据,分析了全国各省（市、区）需要市民化的农业转移人口的规模、结构以及市民化推进程度的空间特征。研究发现,全国待市民化人口每年新增1510 万,东部沿海以跨省市迁移为主,中部地区以省内迁移为主。采用迁移人口中的落户人口与总迁移人口的比值考察不同地区迁入人口落户难度,发现中部地区落户最易,西北地区其次,东部沿海最难。影响市民化进程的因素,一是高昂的市民化成本,特别是需要政府承担的公共成本部分抑制了市民化进程;二是现行的财政体制下转移人口市民化的成本主要由迁入地政府负担,降低了地方政府的积极性;三是现有产业人口与落户要求不匹配,使得粗放型产业所吸引的就业人群难以达到落户门槛。本文进一步结合户籍制度改革的动力机制分析,从政府投资体制和空间资源配置两方面就不同地区转移人口市民化对策问题进行了初步讨论。     

中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响机制

基于广州、东莞、沈阳、成都、杭州、郑州市所获问卷数据,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型,探讨中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响因素。研究表明,城市新移民总体上呈现较强的定居意愿,其中投资型新移民的定居意愿最强,智力型新移民次之,劳力型新移民最弱。影响新移民定居意愿的主要因素包括户籍因素、社会网络、社会认同、生活满意度和地域差异。与本地人交往和社会认同是影响智力型新移民定居意愿的决定性因素;职业、产权、本地社会资本、社会认同和地域差异是影响劳力型新移民定居意愿的主要因素;就投资型新移民而言,影响其定居意愿的主要因素为人力资本、本地社会资本、户籍状况及其所在的城市。地方政府应根据新移民所属的类型,有针对性地制定社会与空间政策,为新移民提供更为多元化的城市融合路径。     

劳动力回流的驱动因素与就业行为研究进展

全球化与经济一体化的深入促使劳动力的空间流动更为频繁,并呈现外出与回流并存的格局。作为发展中人口大国,中国的劳动力回流现象不断增多,流动“双向化”趋势日趋明显。本文从劳动力回流理论、回流动因、回流者的就业行为与影响机制入手,对国内外已有文献进行梳理分析,发现在回流理论中,主张成功/失败的经济理论长期占据主导地位,但这一分析范式开始受到社会学理论的挑战。回流决策不仅受外出者自身经济因素所驱使,而是在社会联系、地方经济政策环境等因素的综合影响下产生的。回流劳动力并不是简单的经济上的“失败者”,他们通过物质资本和人力资本积累,表现出更强的就业能力,通过自主创业等活动,促进了家庭收入的增加和家乡经济多元化。但由于制度环境及经济发展特点的差异,中国国内劳动力回流的动因与就业行为具有自身特点。最后,从回流理论、回流的空间效应及新生代农民工回流等方面对中国未来的回流研究进行了展望。     

The determinants and consequences of female migration in Thailand

Female migration in Thailand, especially from rural areas to the Bangkok Metropolis, is an important migratory phenomenon which leads to an unfavorable population distribution. Generally the migration level in Thailand is low but many women from the rural areas, especially from the Northeast Region, move to Bangkok Metropolis to seek work. Findings reveal that the majority of migrants are young, single women. Women migrants find it relatively easy to participate in the Bangkok labor market. Service work is the main source of employment. For the temporary migrants, it was found that those from the Northeast Region tend to return to their hometown in higher proportion than those from other regions. This was particularly so among young women migrants.     

中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关统计年鉴数据,对中国地级以上城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿、空间格局及影响因素进行了系统分析。研究发现,中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的整体水平并不高;等级高、规模大的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,而等级低、规模小的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低;沿海城市群流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,其他城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低,但内陆部分省会城市和交通区位与资源禀赋较好的中小城市也已经形成了一批流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高值区。中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间分布特征受到流入城市和流动人口自身双重力量的影响,流入城市因素的正向影响作用大于流动人口自身因素。其中,流入城市的社会、经济发展水平和流动人口在流入城市的社会融合程度是核心要素,对城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的提升具有正向的促进作用,而流动人口过于集中在次级劳动力市场的就业特征和较高的家庭财富与收入对户籍迁移意愿的提升却具有显著的抑制作用。最后,提出了相关政策启示。     

中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析

构建中国省际流动人口户籍迁移网络,运用探索性空间分析及空间滤波等方法分析该网络的空间格局和驱动力。主要发现：① 户籍迁移意愿网络呈现出集聚的空间格局,排序较高的户籍迁移意愿流主要从欠发达地区指向发达地区。② 户籍吸引力及户籍流出分别呈现出随机及集聚的空间格局,户籍流出热点区为西部及东北地区,冷点区为中东部地区。③ 迁入地人口、FDI、迁入地及迁出地人均GDP、平均工资等因素均显著影响户籍迁移意愿。流动人口个体、家庭因素、住房条件及迁移原因等同样与户籍迁移意愿的关系紧密。     

城市收缩背景下外来人口政策满意度 ——以东莞为例

2008年金融危机后东莞出现城市收缩现象,东莞城市政府出台了以户籍改革为核心的外来人口政策吸引人口定居、改善人口流失情况。然而,在政策实践中,不同特征人群对于外来人口政策的满意程度或有差异,但已有研究鲜有探讨这一问题。因此,文章从市民视角评价以户籍改革为核心的外来人口政策,重点对比未入户外来人口与已入户人口的政策满意度。基于2013年东莞外来人口工作生活的问卷调查数据,采用二元逻辑回归分析方法,探讨外来人口对于东莞城市政策的满意度及其影响因素。研究发现：全体外来人口中,高学历、没有因户口遇到教育/住房差别待遇、满意治安环境、参与公共政策制定的群体,对外来人口政策的满意度更高。对比未入户与已入户两类人群发现：已入户人群比未入户人群对于政策满意度更高;未入户人群对于住房、教育以及治安环境的关注更为明显;已入户人群则更为关注情感维度与社会融合。     

“人口回流”视角下的中部地区乡村振兴——对湖北“毛嘴模式”的实证

采用质性研究方法,以中部地区湖北的“毛嘴模式”为例,围绕武汉汉正街与仙桃毛嘴镇的城乡联系问题,研究人口回流及返乡创业所带动的地方发展,解析其对乡村振兴的重要作用。研究发现：①劳动力回流受家庭需求、家乡发展环境等多重因素影响;资本回流的主要影响因素是雇佣“本地化”劳动力,也涉及城市更新及其“外部性”效应的间接影响;②技能型劳动力回流以及企业家在城-乡间的高频流动,有利于发挥流动人口的“桥梁”作用;③回流人口主要从事与之前就业相关的行业,倾向于在镇区或市区购买商品房,促进了乡村经济转型,同时利于社会资本的培育,重塑了乡村社会空间。     

China's Permanent and Temporary Migrants: Differentials and Changes, 1990–2000

A unique feature of migration in China is its two-track system, one consisting of permanent migration and temporary migration. This article examines whether and how hukou reforms and the maturation of migration streams since the 1980s have changed the two-track system. Using data on interprovincial migration from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, our empirical analysis focuses on the differentials between permanent migrants and temporary migrants and their changes over time. We document the size, migration reasons, and selectivity of migrants, and we evaluate the determinants of the dichotomy between permanent migrants and temporary migrants via logistic regression models. Our findings show that between 1990 and 2000 the gaps between interprovincial permanent migrants and temporary migrants did not narrow but in most aspects had widened. There is little evidence that hukou reforms have lowered the barriers to urban citizenship. At the same time, a larger spectrum of the rural population has joined the temporary migration streams. The net result is a persistence of the two-track migration system, where permanent migrants increasingly assume the position of social and economic elites and temporary migrants are the disadvantaged and disenfranchised.     

新型城镇化背景下中国流动人口研究:议题与展望

研究通过4个议题（户籍与人口流动,循环流动、定居意愿及家庭策略,社会网络和移民社区,迁移、流动性和移民的日常生活）,回顾了近年来乡城人口迁移的研究。指出：户籍政策对移民在城市中的生计带来的影响将减弱,移民的住房及在城市的居住模式和居住空间、社会交往、生活方式、移民身份建构及生活空间的重构等将会成为新的关注点。新文化地理学中关于移民“微观化”“生活化”的研究应受到更多的重视。换言之,如何理解移民在个体层面的诉求和移民的日常生活,将会是未来流动性研究的重点。如何立足于国内移民地理研究的基础与发展机遇,批判性地与西方移民研究搭建对话空间和平台,结合当前中国崛起过程中所呈现的前所未有的全球化与城镇化契机,为世界移民研究积累和贡献“中国知识”,将成为未来这一领域学者研究的方向。     

农村人口流动中的“人地关系”与迁入地创业行为的影响因素

基于“人地关系”视角下的农村流动人口创业行为影响机制理论模型,并辅之以江苏省的实证研究,从“环境”和“个体”两个方面解读其对农村流动人口迁入地创业行为的影响。采用2010年江苏省城镇暂住人口的抽样调查数据,通过二元Logistic模型发现,农村流动人口的个人经济社会特征及其所处的社会、文化、城市环境均对其创业行为产生影响。特别是城市环境方面,城市总人口规模和农村流动人口规模对农村流动人口的创业行为具有反向影响;控制规模之后,在户口含金量越高的地区,农村流动人口创业的可能性越低,这反映了中国特殊的制度环境对农民工创业行为的影响。     

乡村劳动力迁移的“双拉力”模型及其就地城镇化效应——基于中国东南沿海三个地区的实证研究

针对中国东南沿海部分地区未通过大规模人口迁移而实现转型的就地城镇化现象,选择3个就地城镇化发达地区,在问卷调查数据的支撑下,构建了“乡村拉力一城市拉力”（“双拉力”）概念模型,探讨乡村劳动力迁移行为、迁移意愿及其城镇化效应。结果显示,居民迁移行为不太频繁,且多数为就地就近的近距离迁移;同时迁移意愿不够强烈,并且倾向于近...     

Regional suitability for settling rural migrants in urban China

Despite rapid urbanization, more than 200 million people living in urban areas are still registered as ＇agricultural＇ and are ineligible for most social benefits under China＇s Hukou （or household registration） system. This paper identifies the regional suitability for settling rural migrants in urban China based on three indicators （the degree of urgency, the skills and ability of the resettled community to adapt, and the ability of the government to support that resettlement）. It takes 2008 government socioeconomic data from a county level into con- sideration. Spatial, statistical, and decision tree analyses, supported by SPSS, Geodata, and ArcGIS software, show that there are five separate population types, each with different de- grees of suitability. These include highly suitable region, region suitable for settling migrants to outside regions, region suitable for settling migrants from outside regions, region with moderate potential, and unsuitable region. This paper suggests that regional policies for set- tling rural migrants are meaningful, since the five regions are distributed relatively separately. Due to the suitability for different bodies across regions, equal treatment should be applied to both the native migrants and that across counties and provinces. Furthermore, demolishment of the social welfare discrimination adhered to Hukou system and equalization of basic public services will be of more practical significance than the so-called settling rural migrants ac- tively and steadily.     

流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素

基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,根据流动人口愿意在流入地居留时间的长短将居留意愿划分为短期居留意愿、长期居留意愿、永久居留意愿3种类型,运用空间分析技术和分层模型对中国地级及以上城市流动人口不同类型居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素进行对比分析。研究发现：具有短期和长期居留意愿的流动人口比例合计超过60%,表明两栖和多栖生计仍是流动人口的主导生计策略;短期和永久居留意愿在空间上存在明显的“一高一低”分布差异,短期居留意愿在东部地区最高,东北地区最低,永久居留意愿则呈完全相反的分布格局;中西部地区流动人口长期居留意愿最高。模型结果显示,流入地特征和流动人口个体特征共同影响着不同类型的居留意愿：在东部和中部、经济发达以及职工平均工资高的地区,流动人口短期和长期居留意愿较高,永久居留意愿较低;男性、农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入低、在外流动时间短、跨省流动的流动人口倾向于短期和长期居留;而女性、非农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入高、在省内流动、在外流动时间长的流动人口更愿意在流入地永久定居。     

中国高学历流动人口流动的空间特征及形成机制

进入创新驱动发展的新时代,未取得流入地户籍的高学历流动人口成为各地竞相引进的重要资源。本文基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据,结合探索性空间数据分析等方法精细刻画高学历流动人口流动的空间格局,并借助嵌套Logit模型揭示其空间选择机制。结果发现：(1)中国高学历流动人口不断集聚,形成以京、沪为核心的流动网络;各城市流出的人口中高学历人才占比在空间上具有明显的“东高西低、北高南低、中部塌陷”特征,但各城市吸引的流动人口受教育水平在南北方向上的空间分异较小;高学历流动人口流动的空间依赖性显著,呈现出城市群的雏形。(2)在机制方面,个体因素对高学历流动人口的空间选择影响更大;其普遍表现出近距离、跨级别向上流动的倾向;学历越高、户籍所在地行政等级越高、50岁以下年龄越大的人才越倾向于流入一线城市。(3)城市特征变量中,经济因素变量如工资水平、第三产业占比等和地方品质变量如公共服务、高等教育、空气质量等均对高学历流动人口的空间选择具有显著的正向作用。本研究为不同城市制定人才引进政策、促进城市高质量发展提供了实证依据和科学参考。     

Spatial pattern and driving factors of migrants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Insights from short-distance and long-distance population migrants

As one of the most ecologically sensitive issues in the world,migration now plays an important role in population growth on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.To promote sustainable development in the world's third pole,it is necessary to investigate population migration on the Plateau.Using 2010 census data,a spatial database of county-level migrants on the Plateau was constructed,and migrants were divided into short-distance and long-distance migrants according to the hukou-registered origins.Measuring migration intensity allowed the spatial pattern of population migration on the Plateau to be ascertained.The driving factors were identified using spatial regression models,and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)In 2010,there were 1.23 million inter-county migrants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and the overall migration intensity reached 10.50％.There existed significant spatial differences in population migration intensity on the Plateau at that time,and the provincial or prefectural capitals were attractive destinations for migrants.Northwestern Qinghai,which boasted min-ing industries,constituted a significant spatial cluster with a relatively high migration intensity.However,most areas on the Plateau attracted relatively few migrants,especially in western and northern parts of Tibet,which were sparsely populated and uninhabitable.(2)There were 0.95 million short-distance migrants and 0.28 million long-distance migrants.The short-dis-tance migration intensity was 8.14％,while the long-distance migration intensity was only 2.36％.Short-distance migration was the main form of population migration,with a pattern similar to the layout of overall population migration intensity.Only a few county-level units strongly attracted long-distance migrants,which were mostly distributed in northwestern Qinghai.(3)Economic factors were considered fundamental drivers for migrants to live on the Plateau.Destinations with high levels of economic development and more opportunities in non-agricultural jobs proved more attractive for migrants.For short-distance migrants,ur-banization level also proved a considerable driving factor for in-migration.However,long-distance migrants were mainly affected by the job chances of the secondary industry on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.