Statistics for Modeling Heavy Tailed Distributions in Geology: Part II. Applications

In this paper, we present three diverse types of applications of extreme value statistics in geology, namely: earthquakes magnitudes, diamond values, and impact crater size distribution on terrestrial planets. Each of these applications has a different perspective toward tail modeling, yet many of these phenomena exhibit heavy or long tails which can be modeled by power laws. It is shown that the estimation of important tail characteristics, such as the extreme value index, is directly linked to the interpretation of the underlying geological process. Only the most extreme data are useful for studying such phenomena, so thresholds must be selected above which the data become power laws. In the case of earthquake magnitudes, we investigate the use of extreme value statistics in predicting large events on the global scale and for shallow intracontinental earthquakes in Asia. Large differences are found between estimates obtained from extreme value statistics and the usually applied standard statistical techniques. In the case of diamond deposits, we investigate the impact of the most precious stones in the global valuation of primary deposits. It is shown that in the case of Pareto-type behavior, the expected value of few extreme stones in the entire deposit has considerable influence on the global valuation. In the case of impact crater distributions, we study the difference between craters distributions on Earth and Mars and distributions occurring on other planets or satellites within the solar system. A striking result is that all planets display the same distributional tail except for Earth and Mars. In a concluding account, we demonstrate the apparent loghyperbolic variation in all of the above-mentioned examples.     

Extreme value analysis of diamond-size distributions

Extreme value analysis provides a semiparametric method for analyzing the extreme long tails of skew distributions which may be observed when handling mining data. The estimation of important tail characteristics, such as the extreme value index, allows for a discrimination between competing distribution models. It measures the thickness of such long tailed distributions, if only a limited sample is available. This paper stresses the practical implementation of extreme value theory, which is used to discriminate a lognormal from a mixed lognormal distribution in a case study of size distributions for alluvial diamonds.     

Geologie des Munzur Dag-Gebietes

Zusammenfassung Das bearbeitete Gebiet umfaßt das Gebirge Munzur Dag und Umgebung in der Osttürkei. Zwei Einheiten werden unterschieden: Die Munzur-Dag- und die Kemah-Einheit. Die erstere besteht aus mesozoischen Gesteinen in kalkiger Fazies. Es ist eine série compréhensive die mit dem Jura beginnt, bis in die Oberkreide hinaufreicht und in der ultrabasische Gesteine, die der Oberkreide angehören, auftreten. Die Kemah-Einheit besteht aus obermesozoischen und tertiären Gesteinen, die vorwiegend in klastischer Fazies entwickelt sind. Hier kommen Andésite vor, welche mit Eozänschichten wechsellagern.

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The studied area is covered by Munzur Mountain and its environment, located on the eastern side of Turkey. The area is divided into two different parts: the Munzur Dag area and the Kemah area. The Munzur Dag area consists of limestone facies rocks of Mesozoic age. These rocks begin with the age of Jurassic and continue into upper Cretaceous as a série comprehensive. In addition, in this area ultrabasic rocks of Cretaceous age are observed. The Kemah area consists of more clastic facies submitting beds of the upper Mesozoic and Tertiary age. Andesites, alternating with the Eocene beds, are also seen.

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Résumé La région d'étude comprend les montagnes de Munzur Dag et leurs environs à l'E de la Turquie. La région est divisée en deux parties: la partie de Munzur Dag et celle de Kemah. La partie de Munzur Dag est constituée de roches mésozoiques ayant un faciès calcaire. Ces roches que se poursuivent sous forme de série compréhensive montrent un âge qui va du Jurassique jusqu'au Crétacé. On y aperçoit en outre des roches ultra basiques d'âge Crétacé. La partie de Kemah est formée de couches quaternaires et tertiaires qui présentent pour la plupart un faciès clastique. Ici on observe également des couches éocènes en alternance avec les andésites.

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Herrn Professor Dr.Roland Brinkmann zum 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

An ion microprobe study of anhydrous oxygen diffusion in anorthite: a comparison with hydrothermal data and some geological implications

The diffusion rate of ¹⁸O tracer atoms in anorthite (An₉₇Ab₀₃) under anhydrous conditions has been measured using SIMS techniques. The tracer source was ¹⁸O₂ 98.4% gas at 1 bar, in the temperature range 1300° C–850° C. The measured diffusion constants are D ₀=1 _–0.6 ⁺¹ ×10^–9 m²s^–1 Q=236±8 kJ mol^–1 Comparison of these values with published data for ¹⁸O diffusion in anorthite under hydrothermal conditions shows that dry oxygen diffusivities are orders of magnitude lower than equivalent wet values at similar temperatures. The effect of these differences on oxygen isotope equilibration during cooling is discussed.     

Power and robustness of Aitchison's test for complete subcompositional independence in closed arrays

This paper examines some aspects of the power and robustness of the test for complete subcompositional independence proposed by Aitchison (1982). Although the computed test statistics commonly do not approach being ² distributed throughout their range, the upper tail of their distribution does mimic the ² distribution sufficiently to yield a quite robust test when variates are drawn from identical distributions with different distribution parameters or even when variates are drawn from different distributions. But the magnitude of correlations among the variables and the proportion of correlated to independent variables that compose the closed data vectors affect the power of the test.     

Conditional Simulation of Nongaussian Random Functions

This paper presents a conditional simulation procedure that overcomes the limits of gaussian models and enables one to simulate regionalized variables with highly asymmetrical histograms or with partial or total connectivity of extreme values. The philosophy of the method is similar to that of sequential indicator technique, but it is more accurate because it is based on a complete bivariate model by means of an isofactorial law. The resulting simulations, which can be continuous or categorical, not only honor measured values at data points, but also reproduce the mono and bivariate laws of the random function associated to the regionalized variable, that is, every one or two-point statistic: histogram, variogram, indicator variograms. The sequential isofactorial method can also be adapted to conditional simulation of block values, without resorting to point–support simulations.     

Logratios and Natural Laws in Compositional Data Analysis

The impossibility of interpreting correlations of raw compositional components and associated statistical methods has been clearly demonstrated over the last four decades and alternative statistical methodology developed. Despite this a return to the traditional use of raw components has been advocated recently and alternative methodology such as logratio analysis strongly criticized. This paper exposes the fallacies in this recent advocacy and demonstrates the constructive role that logratio analysis can play in geological compositional problems, in particular in the investigation of natural laws and in subcompositional investigations.     

Clinopyroxenes from space-and time-associated “within-plate dominant” and “subduction-related” Variscan basic rocks (Tazekka,Morocco)

A study has been made of clinopyroxene phenocrysts from within-plate dominant and subduction-related basic lavas, which are within the same volcanic pile of the Lower Namurian volcanic complex of Tazekka (Eastern Morocco). Twenty-one clinopyroxene phenocrysts (113 probe analyses in total) have been analysed from two thin sections of the within-plate lava sample, and 17 clinopyroxene phenocrysts (82 probe analyses in total) have been analysed from two thin sections of the subduction-related lava sample. Petrographic and microprobe data on clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the two lavas indicate specific textural and chemical features according to the source, namely: relatively low pressure and high temperature crystallisation conditions for the sector-zoned crystals from the basalt of the first group, although such a sector-zoned growth in clinopyroxenes is usually considered as evidence for a continental within-plate affinity of host-rocks; intermediate pressure and relatively low temperature crystallisation conditions for homogeneous crystals from the basalt of the second group. Thus distinct P-T conditions for equilibrium crystallisation of the pyroxenes in each host-magma are proposed. Clinopyroxene affinities observed in specific discriminative diagrams are in agreement with trace element geochemistry of the host-lavas, i.e. continental within-plate features for clinopyroxenes of the group 1 host-rock and subduction-related features for clinopyroxenes of the group 2 host-rock, which often exhibit extreme parameters highlighting the problem of petrogenesis of these basic lavas in an unusual continental crust subduction-related environment.     

Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

Der tiefere Untergrund der Alpen nach neuen seismischen Messungen

Zusammenfassung Anhand einer zu diesem Zweck zusammengestellten Schwerekarte werden die Ergebnisse sowohl von Sprengserien in West- und Ostalpen als auch von Beobachtungen in den Vorländern diskutiert. Eine Alpenwurzel, die von der Mohorovii-Diskontinuität abgebildet wird, kann als nachgewiesen gelten. Starke Verdickungen der Gabbro-Schicht in den Alpen und im Bereich positiver Schwereanomalien am Innenrand der Alpen sind äußerst wahrscheinlich. Die Störkörper am südlichen Innenrand der Alpen haben, wie aus dem seismisch untersuchten Teil der Anomalie von Ivrea gefolgert wird, ähnliche Größenordnung wie der Gabbrokörper unter den Alpen. Auf formale Beziehungen zu Verhältnissen im Karibischen Meer wird hingewiesen.

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The results of a series of explosions in the West- and East Alps as well as of observations made in the forelands of the Alps are here discussed with the aid of a gravity map especially compiled for this purpose. A root of the Alps clearly shown by the Mohorovii discontinuity can be considered as ascertained. Strong thickenings of the basaltic layer in the Alps and within the reach of positive gravity anomalies are extremely probable. From the seismically examined part of the Ivrea anomaly is concluded that the disturbing bodies at the southern inner border of the Alps are of the similar order of magnitude as the basaltic body below the Alps. Formal relations to conditions in the Caribbean Sea are pointed out.

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Résumé A l'aide d'une carte de gravité, compilée spécialement à cette fin, on discute les résultats obtenus par des séries d'explosions dans les Alpes occidentales et orientales comme aussi par des observations faites dans les avant-pays. Une racine des Alpes tracée par la discontinuité de Mohorovii peut être considérée comme prouvée. Il est très probable qu'il existe de forts renflements de la couche de gabbro dans les Alpes et dans le domaine d'anomalies positives de gravité au bord intérieur des Alpes. Les massifs failleux au bord intérieur méridional des Alpes se placent — ce qui s'ensuit de la partie examinée par les experiences séismologiquès de l'anomalie d'Ivrea — dans le même ordre de grandeur comme le massif de gabbro au dessous des Alpes. On indique des relations formales par rapport à des conditions existant dans la mer des caraïbes.

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Vortrag gehalten auf der Jahrestagung der Geologischen Vereinigung in Bern, März 1963.     

Oxygen isotope compositions of selected laramide-tertiary granitoid stocks in the Colorado Mineral Belt and their bearing on the origin of climax-type granite-molybdenum systems

Quartz phenocrysts from 31 granitoid stocks in the Colorado Mineral Belt yield ¹⁸O values less than 10.4, with most values between 9.3 and 10.4. An average magmatic value of about 8.5 is suggested. The stocks resemble A-type granites; these data support magma genesis by partial melting of previously depleted, fluorine-enriched, lower crustal granulites, followed by extreme differentiation and volatile evolution in the upper crust.Subsolidus interaction of isotopically light water with stocks has reduced most feldspar and whole rock ¹⁸O values. Unaltered samples from Climax-type molybdenumbearing granites, however, show no greater isotopic disturbance than samples from unmineralized stocks. Although meteoric water certainly played a role in post-mineralization alteration, particularly in feldspars, it is not required during high-temperature mineralization processes. We suggest that slightly low ¹⁸O values in some vein and replacement minerals associated with molybdenum mineralization may have resulted from equilibration with isotopically light magmatic water and/or heavy isotope depletion of the ore fluid by precipitation of earlier phases.Accumulation of sufficient quantities of isotopically light magmatic water to produce measured depletions of ¹⁸O requires extreme chemical stratification in a large magma reservoir. Upward migration of a highly fractionated, volatile-rich magma into a small apical Climax-type diapir, including large scale transport of silica, alkalis, molybdenum, and other vapor soluble elements, may occur with depression of the solidus temperature and reduction of magma viscosity by fluorine. Climax-type granites may provide examples of ¹⁸O depletion in magmatic systems without meteoric water influx.     

Geology and tectonics of the basin of Mexico and their relationship with the damage caused by the earthquakes of September 1985

Summary The earthquakes of 19 September 1985 (18.2° N, 102.7° W and a magnitude of 8.1 Richter scale) and of 20 (17.6° N, 101.8° W and a magnitude of 7.5 Richter scale) September 1985, caused the total or partial destruction of more than 2000 structures in Mexico City. The most affected areas are located along the fringes of and bordering old roadways, earthworks (dikes), aquaducts and pre-hispanic population centres. Ancient construction artificially modified the sedimentation in the basin of the Mexico Valley Lakes making the sub-soil of Mexico City more rigid near to the surface, and producing deviations of the surface seismic waves (Rayleigh waves and Love waves). Also, when earthquakes occur on the Pacific coast, seismic waves travel quickly through plutonic, metamorphics and continental and marine rocks of different ages, having high seismic velocities. When the seismic waves enter the poorly consolidated lake sediments having low seismic velocities in the Mexico City Basin, they produce an energy buildup that causes the phenomenon called magnification.There exists a direct relation between the amplification mentioned above and the presence of rigid bodies that are buried in the sub-soil. The length of these bodies is of the order of tens of kilometres horizontally with thicknesses less than 50 metres. These Rigid Barriers produce reflections and refractions of the surface waves along their borders with destructive consequences for the buildings. A correlation between the buildings and the houses damaged and destroyed and the location of the prehispanic construction on the sub-soil has been made which shows that the most damage happened in the borders of old roadways (i.e. Tlalpan road), perimeter walls (i.e. San Lazaro), aqueducts (i.e. Chapultepec Avenue), pyramids (i.e. Templo Mayor) and population centres (i.e. Tlaltelolco).     

Summary statistics in geochemistry: A study of the performance of robust estimates

Numerical data summaries in many geochemical papers rely on arithmetic means, with or without standard deviations. Yet the mean is the worst average (estimate of location) for those extremely common geochemical data sets which are non-normally distributed or include outliers. The widely used geometric mean, although allowing for skewed distributions, is equally susceptible to outliers. The superior performance of 19 robust estimates of location (simple median, plus various combined, adaptive, trimmed, and skipped,L, M, andW estimates) is illustrated using real geochemical data sets varying in sources of error (pure analytical error to multicomponent geological variability), modality (unimodal to polymodal), size (20 to >2000 data values), and continuity (continuous to truncated in either or both tails). The arithmetic mean tends to overestimate location of many geochemical data sets because of positive skew and large outliers; robust estimates yield consistent smaller averages, although some (e.g., Hampel's and Andrew's) do perform better than others (e.g., Shorth mean, dominant cluster mode). Recommended values for international standard rocks, and for such important geochemical concepts as average chondrite, can be reproduced far more simply via robust estimation on complete interlaboratory data sets than via the rather complicated and subjective methods (e.g., laboratory ratings) so far used in the literature. Robust estimates also seem generally less affected by truncation than the mean; for example, if values below machine detection limits are alternatively treated as missing values or as real values of zero, similar averages are obtained. The standard (and mean) deviations yield consistently larger values of scale for many geochemical data sets than the hinge width (interquartile range) or median absolute deviation from the median. Therefore, summaries of geochemical data should always include at least the simple median and hinge width, to complement the often misleading mean and standard deviation.     

Trace element chemistry of lithium-rich micas from rare-element granitic pegmatites

Summary Granitic pegmatites characterized by advanced accumulation and fractionation of incompatible rare lithophile elements (Li, Rb, Cs, Be, Ta Nb, B, P and F), often contain mineral assemblages which host lithium-rich micas. Lepidolite and lithian muscovite occur in high-pressure spodumene, low-pressure petalite, phosphorus-enriched amblygonite and fluorine-rich lepidolite subtypes of orogenic affiliated complex type granitic pegmatites and rarely in anorogenic affiliated amazonite-bearingTrace element data determined by X-ray fluorescence for lepidolite of various pegmatite subtypes, morphology (book, scaly, fine-grained), position within the pegmatite (primary zones, replacement units, pockets), mineral assemblages and tectonic affinity (orogenic vs anorogenic) show extreme fractionation of Rb and Cs; modest levels of T1, Ga, Nb, Ta, Sn and Zn; and typically low abundances of Ba, Sr, Ni, Pb, Y, V, W and Zr. Extreme fractionation is indicated by low values of K/Rb, K/Cs and Nb/Ta which are lowest in lepidolite from petalite subtype pegmatites.No systematic differences in trace element content is evident among the different lepidolite morphologies or paragenetic position. Lepidolite from spodumene subtype pegmatites are generally slightly less fractionated than those from petalite or lepidolite subtype pegmatites.

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Spurenelement-Chemie von Lithium-reichen Glimmern aus granitischen Pegmatiten

Zusammenfassung Granitische Pegmatite, die durch fortgeschrittene Anreicherung und Fraktionierung von inkompatiblen, seltenen, lithophilen Elementen (Li, Rb, Cs, Be, Ta Nb, B, P und F) charakterisiert sind, enthalten häufig Mineralparagenesen mit Lithium-reichen Glimmern. Lepidolith und Li-Muskowit treten in Hochdruck-Spodumen, in Niedrigdruck-Petalit, in mit Phosphor angereichertem Amblygonit und in Fluor-reichen Lepidolith-Unterarten aus komplexen orogenen granitischen Pegmatiten und selten auch aus anorogenen, Amazonit-führenden Pegmatiten, auf.Spurenelement-Daten aus der Röntgenfluoreszenzanalyse von Lepidolith aus verschiedenen Pegmatit-Untertypen, die Morphologie (tafelig, schuppig, feinkörnig), die Position innerhalb des Pegmatits (primäre Zonen, verdrängte Einheiten, Taschen), Mineralbestände und tektonische Affinität (orogen gegen anorogen) zeigen eine extreme Fraktionierung von Rb und Cs, bescheidene Gehalte an TI, Ga, Nb, Ta, Sn und Zn; und typischerweise geringe Häufigkeiten von Ba, Sr, Ni, Pb, Y, V, W und Zr. Die extreme Fraktionierung wird durch niedrige Werte von K/Rb, K/Cs und Nb/Ta angezeigt, die in Lepidolith von Pegmatiten des Petalit-Subtyps am niedrigsten sind.Aus den verschiedenen Morphologien oder paragenetischen Positionen von Lepidolith sind keine systematischen Unterschiede im Spurenelementgehalt ersichtlich. Lepidolith aus Pegmatiten des Spodumen-Subtyps sind generell etwas weniger fraktioniert als jene von Pegmatiten des Petalit- oder Lepidolith-Subtyps.

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With 4 Figures     

Influence of sedimentary environments on sulfur isotope ratios in clastic rocks: a review

Strata-bound sulfide deposits associated with clastic, marine sedimentary rocks, and not associated with volcanic rocks, display distributions of S³⁴ values gradational between two extreme types: 1. a flat distribution ranging from S³⁴ of seawater sulfate to values about 25 lower; and 2. a narrow distribution around value S³⁴ (sulfide)=S³⁴ (seawater sulfate) –50, and skewed to heavier values. S³⁴ (seawater sulfate) is estimated from contemporaneous evaporites. There is a systematic relation between the type of S³⁴ distribution and the type of depositional environment. Type 1 occurs in shallow marine or brackish-water environments; type 2 occurs characteristically in deep, euxinic basins. These distributions can be accounted for by a model involving bacterial reduction of seawater sulfate in systems which range from fully-closed batches of sulfate (type 1) to fully open systems in which fresh sulfate is introduced as reduction proceeds (type 2). The difference in the characteristic distributions requires that the magnitude of the sulfate-sulfide kinetic isotope effect on reduction be different in the two cases. This difference has already been suggested by the conflict between S³⁴ data for modern marine sediments and laboratory experiments. The difference in isotope effects can be accounted for by Rees' (1973) model of steady-state sulfate reduction: low nutrient supply and undisturbed, stationary bacterial populations in the open system settings tend to generate larger fractionations.

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Zusammenfassung Schichtgebundene Sulfid-Lagerstätten in Begleitung von klastischen, marinen Sedimentgesteinen ohne Beteiligung vulkanischer Gesteine zeigen kontinuierliche Verteilungen der S³⁴-Werte zwischen zwei Extremtypen: 1. Eine flache Verteilung im Bereich von S³⁴-Werten des Seewasser-Sulfats bis zu Werten, die etwa 25 niedriger liegen. 2. Eine eng begrenzte Verteilung um den S³⁴ (Sulfid)-Wert=S³⁴ (Seewasser-Sulfat) –50 und asymmetrischer Verteilungskurve mit stärkerer Besetzung bei den schwereren Werten. Das S³⁴ (Seewasser-Sulfat) wird von gleichaltrigen Evaporiten abgeleitet. Es besteht eine systematische Beziehung zwischen der Art der S³⁴-Verteilung und dem Milieu des Ablagerungsraumes. Typ 1 tritt im marinen Flachwasser oder in brackischer Umgebung auf. Typ 2 ist charakteristisch für tiefe euxinische Becken. Diese Verteilungen können erklärt werden mit Hilfe eines Modells mit bakterieller Reduktion von Meerwasser-Sulfat in Systemen, die von völlig abgeschlossenen Sulfat-Mengen (Typ 1) bis zu völlig offenen Systemen reichen, in die bei fortschreitender Reduktion frisches Sulfat zugeführt wird (Typ 2). Der Unterschied in den charakteristischen Verteilungen setzt voraus, daß die Stärke der kinetischen Sulfat-Sulfid-Isotopen-Wirkung auf die Reduktion in beiden Fällen verschieden ist. Dieser Unterschied wurde bereits wegen der Widersprüche zwischen den verschiedenen S³⁴-Werten heutiger mariner Sedimente und Laborexperimente vermutet. Der Unterschied in der Isotopen-Wirkung kann durch das Modell von Rees (1973) für kontinuierlich ablaufende Sulfat-Reduktion erklärt werden. Geringes Nahrungsangebot und ungestörte, gleichbleibende Bakterien-Populationen in offenen Systemen neigen zur Erzeugung stärkerer Fraktionierungen.

     

Multiscale sources of spatial variation in soil. III. Improved methods for fitting the nested model to one-dimensional semivariograms

The previous paper in this series presented a one-dimensional stochastic nested model to account for superimposed sources of soil variation at various scales. This paper shows how the nested model can be fitted to experimental data using weighted or generalized least-squares methods that account for correlations between consecutive terms that had previously been neglected. This paper also presents a method of estimating effective degrees of freedom for each sampling interval and thus for estimating 90% confidence limits for the semivariogram of the nested model.     

Use of the truncated shifted Pareto distribution in assessing size distribution of oil and gas fields

The truncated shifted Pareto (TSP) distribution, a variant of the two-parameter Pareto distribution, in which one parameter is added to shift the distribution right and left and the right-hand side is truncated, is used to model size distributions of oil and gas fields for resource assessment. Assumptions about limits to the left-hand and right-hand side reduce the number of parameters to two. The TSP distribution has advantages over the more customary lognormal distribution because it has a simple analytic expression, allowing exact computation of several statistics of interest, has a J-shape, and has more flexibility in the thickness of the right-hand tail. Oil field sizes from the Minnelusa play in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana, are used as a case study. Probability plotting procedures allow easy visualization of the fit and help the assessment.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Geo-ecologic environment of a river main floodplain sediment profile: a micro-scale study

In the forest of Enkheim near the city of Frankfurt, the depositional sequence of a river Main floodplain sediment was analyzed with regard to the elemental composition of its sediment-facies using XRD- and XRF-techniques. The study includes: residual minerals (mainly Zr and Ti species, which are extremely resistant to weathering), detrital minerals (quartz, K-feldspars, plagioclases), secondary minerals (mainly clay minerals such as Illitehydrous mica, kaolinite, vermiculite, chlorite, smectite and mixed-layer clays) and precipitated minerals (mainly calcite). The processes of weathering are defined in terms of buffer ranges (pH-Eh stability fields). The impact of the acid weathering front on the upper part of the sedimentary sequence was established by the analyses of the mechanisms of dissolution, transport and sorption of selected constituents (major cations; heavy metals) of which their eco-availability is of importance when measures of environmental protection have to be taken.     

Seismicity Variations in Depth and Time in the Vrancea (Romania) Subcrustal Region

Seismicity patterns that characterize the seismic regime of the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes are investigated using an earthquake catalogue extending from 1974 to 1998. The analysis is made separately on two characteristic segments of the subducted plate (active zones) which hosted the major earthquakes of 4 March 1977, 30 August 1986 and 30 May 1990. Precursory anomalies preceding the occurrence of the major shock of 1986 (M_w = 7.3) in the lower part of the subducted slab are outlined when analyzing the time variation of the parameter (defined as the ratio of small to moderate events in a given active zone and a given time interval) and of the fractal dimension of the earthquake space distribution. Nothing similar is noticed in the upper part of the Vrancea slab. The analyzed time interval covering 25 years shows that, in contrast to previous studies, the statistical fluctuations of the parameter, computed for a time window of 5 months, appear to be too large to be considered as precursory anomalies. Significant differences among characteristic depth segments are also outlined in the frequency–magnitude distribution and are possibly related to differences in the physical mechanism of the earthquake generation process.     

Seismic history and consistent seismicity: Evidence from southern Italy

In this paper a method is proposed to evaluate the seismicity level of an area in a given historical period, based on records of seismic events, source characteristics and intensity attenuation with distance. Also considered is the seismic activity recorded in southern Italy during the 10th and 11th centuries, seismic records being obtained from all available sources. To determine the level of seismicity, a key role is played by source characteristics, i.e. recording modalities and activity periods of recording centers. In addition, models of intensity attenuation with distance allow the assessment of the size of the area under investigation. This paper identifies the areas, in the 10th and 11th centuries, where major earthquakes (M 6.5) did not occur during periods of silence of sources, as well as those where such events cannot be excluded. For each area, different levels of probability were determined by applying the Cox linear logistic model to historical seismic data. The completeness analysis, in terms of area and time-span coverage, is a valuable tool to assess seismicity in seismogenetic areas. The reproducibility of the model for lower magnitude earthquakes (M < 6.5) is reliable.