Properties of the Aftershock Sequences of the 2003 Bingöl, M D = 6.4, (Turkey) Earthquake

Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M _{W =}6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M _D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.     

The Characteristic Analysis and Seismic Triggering Study of the M6.2 and M6.1 Dayao Earthquake Sequences in 2003

INTRODUCTIONTheM6·2 andM6·1 earthquakes occurred successivelyin Dayao,Yunnan Province on July 21and October 16 ,2003 and bothinduced human casualty and economic loss to some extent .Adequatehistorical information reveals that ,earthquakes bigger thanM6·0 in Yunnan are distributed mainlyalong some active tectonic faults and seismic belts . Dayao and Yao an are in the Dianzhong tectonicblock andthere are noapparentfaultsthere(Su Youjing,2004) .Seismic activitylevel inthisregioniswea…     

Accurate Location of the Yao''''an Earthquake Sequence and the Yongsheng Earthquake Sequence

INTRODUCTIONEarthquake sequence is a series of centralized earthquake events in space-time after a largerearthquake.Since these earthquake events occur in a small space and are sequential in one specialtime,their seismogenic structure,mediumcharacteristics and earthquake mechanisms must be similar.By studying one earthquake sequence,the seismic activitytrend after a large earthquake can beconjectured.Some characteristics of the earthquake source development process and physic states canal…     

International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineer-ing Seismology

Tocelebratethe100AnniversaryoftheInternationalAssociationofSeismology(nowInternationalAssociationofSeismologyandPhysicsoftheEarthsInterior,IASPEI),theInternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngi-neeringSeismology,Volumes1and2,werepublishedbyAcademicPressin2002and2003,respectively.ThisHandbookisoneoftheprojectsofIASPEICommitteeonEducation(nowCommissiononEducationandOutreach),incollaborationwiththeInternationalAssociationforEarthquakeEngineering(IAEE).Thiscomprehensivereferencesumma…     

Principles for Verification of Historic Earthquake Records

The principles are summarized in this paper for tackling problems related with the verification of historic earthquake records so as to enable proper utilization of the rich historic data of China.Case studies furnished in this paper show that those principles could be effectively utilized to solve the puzzling problems encountered in studying the historic earthquake data.The principles listed in this paper might also be used to tackle problems associated with the historic records of other branches of science.     

Accurate Location of the Yao＇an Earthquake Sequence and the Yongsheng Earthquake Sequence

The Yao＇an Ms6.5 earthquake occurred on Jan. 15, 2000 and the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake occurred on Oct. 27, 2001 in Yunnan Province, China. They are both located in the middle of the Dian block. Their epicenters are close to each other, the tectonic and strain characters of the earthquakes were similar, and there were many aftershocks after the two main shocks. In order to further study the spatial-temporal distributions and fault rupture characters of the main shocks and aftershocks, the latter are located using the Geiger earthquake location algorithm （Geiger） and the double difference earthquake location algorithm （DD） based on the seismic phase data of the two earthquake sequences. They were recorded by two Near Source Digital Seismic Networks （YNSSN and YSNSSN） deployed by the Yunnan Seismological Bureau （YNSB）. Then, two main shock parameters were relocated using DD based on the data of larger magnitude aftershocks and the two main shocks that were recorded by the Kunming Regional Digital Seismic Network （KMSN）. Combining the spatial- temporal distributions of the two earthquake sequences, the tectonic and strain characters of earthquakes, the rupture processes of the two aftershock sequences along faults are analyzed and discussed contrastively.     

Development of Automatic Earthquake Quick Report in China

This paper summarizes the different stages of the development of earthquake automatic quick report in China. In early stage, scientists and technicians mainly focused on the realization of automatic identification of seismic phases and automatic positioning in the network data processing system. Then, at the end of the Tenth "Five-Year Plan" project, Fujian Earthquake Agency, Guangdong Earthquake Agency, and China Earthquake Networks Center have independently developed their earthquake automatic quick report systems. Later, by taking advantage of the "multi-channel comprehensive trigger" mechanism, China Earthquake Networks Center has innovated a comprehensive trigger system for automatic earthquake quick report, whereby earthquake information can be instantly reported and presented on Weibo, Wechat, and CENC App.     

Seismic Intensity and Earthquake Damage Rate of Buildings

Based on the analysis of the three current seismic intensity scales,the authors maintain that there are still some shortcomings in the present seismic intensity evaluation and propose a method which takes the damage rate of structures such as houses to determine the seismic intensity.Also,it is pointed out that the proposed method is favorable to the combination of seismic investigation,seismic damage forecast and hazard reduction counter-measures.     

Evaluation of Earthquake Losses and Establishment of a Corresponding Database System

After the Datong-Yanggao earthquake (October 1989),a special team was organized for the first time by the SSB of China to start the work of earthquake damage evaluation for the purpose of providing the government with a scientific basis for disaster relief.The result of the evaluation played an important role in speeding up rehabilitation and reducing damage losses in the earthquake area.Based on the evaluation of earthquake damage from the Datong-Yanggao earthquake and recent research results,this paper presents a method for quick evaluation of earthquake damages,introduces software entitled EDEP (earthquake damage evaluation program) for evaluating earthquake damage,and cites a case to explain the main function and application of the EDEP.Finally,for a quicker evaluation of earthquake damages,the paper also proposes the establishment of database systems of earthquake damage evaluation in the emphatically monitored areas and ways to build up such database systems.     

Study of the Non-Uniform Distribution of Earthquake Risk Within Potential Sources

Potential sources are aggregates of probable future epicenters.In this area,for source models currently,in common use for seismic risk analysis in China,the mean area of each potential source is about 3000-4000 km2.It is assumed that seismic risk has a uniform distribution within the range of each potential source,but studies have shown that the uniform distribution model to a large extent may give an underestimation of the seismic risk.In this paper,the relative distribution of historical epicenters in space within potential sources is discussed,a method is proposed to quantitatively describe the non-uniform distribution of strong earthquakes within potential sources,and some preliminary results are given.By using the results of this paper,seismic risk analysis and seismic zonation can be made more scientific and more reasonable.     

Possibility of Application of the Electromagnetic Missile Theory to Earthquake Prediction

Geoeiectromagnetic signals related to earthquakes have been detected in China and many other countries.Problems concerning the mechanism of the electromagnetic emission and transportation still remain unsolved,although several models have been proposed.We consider that the theory of "electromagnetic missile emission" may be used to solve this problem,and thus develops the basic ideal of the Electro Magnetic Missile Emission(EMME)model of the emission of electromagnetic signals before earthquakes:pulse variation of the stress state causes the emission of electrons,or sudden flow of the fluid,in a certain direction along or near the fault which is located at the focus of an earthquake,forming a pulse electric current; this current accordingly produces a kind of slowly attenuated EM Wave(electromagnetic missile,which may be observed on the surface of the earth)in the perpendicular direction.In other directions these EM waves vanish quickly and cannot reach ground level.     

Estimation of Occurrence Probability of Earthquake Intensity for a Period of Ten Years

A method of estimation of occurrence probability of earthquake intensity at a given site from the results of a ten-year scale of earthquake prediction described with a probability of occurrence in a given "prediction cell" is proposed in this paper. 2316 cities and towns in China were analyzed by using this method. The probability of intensity Ⅵ-Ⅸ were given for every city. These results can be used for the earthquake insurance, loss estimation, and planning of disaster protection.     

Low Free-Field Accelerations of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake?

The August 17, 1999 Kocaeli earthquake ruptured the earths surface along 145 km and produced a magnitude of M_w=7.4. As expected for such an event Modified Mercalli intensities of typically IX and X in the vicinity of the fault were determined. Yet the observed accelerations at the five near-fault sites remained amazingly small with horizontal PGA values of 0.14 g to 0.4 g. We attempt to resolve the enigma by modeling surface ground motion with a finite-difference algorithm, utilizing two different rupture and slip histories derived from the strong-motion observations and translate the computed horizontal motion in intensity values. We can show that (a) in a given simple crustal velocity model different slip distributions result in significantly different ground motion distributions in the vicinity of the fault even though both slip distributions fit the observed accelerometer data quite well. (b) Both slip distributions project high ground motion into areas adjacent to the fault where no accelerometer was located. (c) Both slip distributions are not fully compatible with observed intensity observations around the fault, although this could be partly attributed to the lack of knowledge regarding to the crustal structure. In the light of our results it would thus be misleading if the few strong-motion observations around the Kocaeli earthquake fault were taken as typical or representative for the entire area and for potential future events.     

Statistical Analysis on Depth Distribution Model of Earthquake Hypocenters

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth <70 km) data, recorded with orientation precision grades 1 and 2 by modern instrument and containing depth information after 1970, are selected as statistical samples, meanwhile, North China seismic region, Central China seismic region, South China seismic region, Xinjiang seismic region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau seismic region are chosen as statistical units to study the depth distribution characteristics of shallow earthquakes. Considering the differences of depth distribution characteristics of earthquakes with different magnitudes, the following magnitude intervals are adopted to analyze earthquakes with different magnitude scales, respectively: M S=2.0～2.9, M S=3.0～3.9, M S=4.0～4.9, M S=5.0～5.9 and M S=6.0～6.9. The results show that hypocenter depths are normally distributed by and large around the mean depth of the corresponding seismic region. The probabilistic distribution curves of earthquake depth in West China are wider than those in East China. The probabilistic distribution deviation, σ, of West China is greater than those of East China, that is, earthquakes in West China have a wider range in terms of depth. There is also a tendency that the absolute value of mean hypocenter depth increases with the magnitude by and large.     

Dynamical Implications of Earthquake Modeling Using Stochastic Cellular Automata

Combining stochastic energy import and deterministic energy loss,this paper does digital modeling for earthquake events by using stochastic cellular automata(CA),and derives energy fractal dimension analysis and multifractal analysis for time sequences of "earthquake" events from this model.The preliminary results show that statistical energy-frequency distribution of many events yields to the classic Gutenberg-Richter relation; different energy initial statuses and propagation rules both influence the output of the model.The b value tightly correlates to model parameters.The complexity of earthquake phenomena essentially may be both stochastic and deterministic.     

Completeness Analysis of the Historical Earthquake Catalogue in China

The historical earthquake catalogue of China has lasted more than 3000 years,and most of its data are inferred from historical records.The earthquake catalogue in earlier times is not complete owing to various reasons,so some events are lost.This paper estimates the loss rate of earthquakes with various magnitudes in the historical earthquake catalogue for different time intervals quantitatively by using the Gutenberg-Richter formula and modern instrumental records,which will provide the references for statistic research in seismicity.     

Overview of Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Mitigation in China

As an earthquake-prone country, China has made sustained efforts in the study of earthquakes and disaster mitigation during the past several decades, with China Seismological Bureau (CSB) as the backbone of these efforts. Working towards this purpose, a series of key projects were implemented in the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (1995-2000) to upgrade earthquake monitoring systems and to improve the supporting infrastructure, significant results in earthquake science were achieved. In the new century, we have worked out a blueprint for earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”, which emphases 3 systems (i.e. Seismic Monitoring & Prediction, Seismic Hazards Prevention, Emergency Response), and 10 key projects in earthquake science and technology.     

Classification of Structure Vulnerability and Evaluation of Earthquake Damage From Future Earthquakes

In this paper,three problems are studied and their results are presented as follows:(1)classification of seismic vulnerability for existing buildings,(2)dynamic earthquake damage matrix analysis method of buildings,and(3)earthquake damage matrix of building in the year 2000.     

Light for Earthquake Prediction： Shocks before the L＇Aquila Earthquake of April 6, 2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.