1959-2003年中国天山积雪的变化

Mcteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover.The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic.The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data.The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44℃/10a.The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79℃/10a.The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years,and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003.The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976.The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu(Kunes)(39.3%)and Nilka(39.7%)in the west Tiansban Mountains.In contrast,the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains.There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover.In addition,snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly,however,there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

Numerical simulation of plume-advection over a hill with coupled models. Part II: Results

Summary Two-dimensional simulations of plume advection over a hill are presented. The calculations are carried out in two steps. In a first step the flow is calculated by a mesoscale-model. This model solves the equations of motions in a cartesian grid. In a second step, the transport equation is solved using the calculated flow-parameters of the mesoscale model. The numerical formulation of the transport-equation was presented in Part I. This calculation is performed in a coordinatetransformed grid. The merit of this combination is discussed in the paper.With 11 Figures     

Tropical versus high latitude freshwater influence on the Atlantic circulation

We investigate the model sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to anomalous freshwater flux in the tropical and northern Atlantic. Forcing in both locations leads to the same qualitative response: a positive freshwater anomaly induces a weakening of the AMOC and a negative freshwater anomaly strengthens the AMOC. Strong differences arise in the temporal characteristics and amplitude of the response. The advection of the tropical anomaly up to the deep water formation area leads to a time delayed response compared to a northern forcing. Thus, in its transient response, the AMOC is less sensitive to a constant anomalous freshwater flux in the tropics than in the north. This difference decreases with time and practically vanishes in equilibrium with constant freshwater forcing. The equilibrium response of the AMOC shows a non-linear dependence on freshwater forcing in both locations, with a stronger sensitivity to positive freshwater forcing. As a consequence, competitive forcing in both regions is balanced when the negative forcing is about 1.5 times larger than the positive forcing. The relaxation time of the AMOC after termination of a freshwater perturbation depends significantly on the AMOC strength itself. A strong overturning exhibits a faster relaxation to its unperturbed state. By means of a set of complementary experiments (pulse-perturbations, constant and stochastic forcing) we quantify these effects and discuss the corresponding time scales and physical processes.     

1980-2010年丽水市土壤温度变化特征

利用1980-2010年丽水市国家气象观测站0-20 cm 的5层土壤温度逐月观测资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验和气候相关性等气候分析统计方法,分析了丽水市土壤温度的时间变化趋势、气候突变及对气候变化的响应。结果表明：丽水市平均土壤温度呈极显著的增温趋势,升温率为0.18 ℃/10 a,其中冬季增温最明显,月变化特征呈单峰分布。土壤温度随深度的增加变化幅度减小,且在时间变化上有一定的滞后性。Mann-Kendall检验表明,丽水市土壤温度处于稳定增长的趋势,其中2004-2009年各层土壤温度增温最显著,通过0.01的显著性检验。丽水市各层土壤温度的突变点,随着深度的增加有所延后,平均土壤温度在1994-1996年发生突变。丽水市土壤温度对气候变化的响应,表现为与气温呈现显著的正相关,与春夏季降水有明显的负相关。     

The detection and measurement of turbulent structures in the atmospheric surface layer

Turbulence data from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) indicate the presence of deterministic turbulent structures. These structures often show up as asymmetric ramp patterns in measurements of the turbulent fluctuations of a scalar quantity in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL). The sign of the slope of the sharp upstream edge of such a triangular pattern depends on the thermal stability conditions of the ASL.The turbulent structures in the ASL have been tracked by a detection method which searches for rapid and strong fluctuations in a signal — the VITA (variable interval time averaging) technique. This detection method has previously been employed in laboratory boundary layers. The VITA detection method performs well in the ASL and reveals the presence of vertically coherent turbulent structures, which look similar to those in laboratory shear flows. At the moment that a sharp temperature interface appears, the horizontal alongwind velocity shows a sharp increase, along with a sudden decrease of vertical velocity, independent of the thermal stability conditions of the ASL. The fluctuating static pressure reveals a maximum at that moment. The vertical turbulent transports show a twin-peak character around the time that the sharp jumps in the temperature and the velocity signals appear.     

西北干旱区夏季大气边界层结构及其陆面过程特征

在中国西北干旱区影响大气边界层形成和发展的气候环境和大气环流背景都具有一定特殊性.文中用外场观测试验资料,分析了位于西北干旱区的敦煌荒漠夏季大气边界层气象要素结构特征,发现该地区无论白天的对流边界层还是夜间的稳定边界层均比一般地区更深厚.在夏季晴天,夜间稳定边界层厚度超过900 m,最厚可以达到1750 m,其上的残余层一般能达到4000 m左右的高度;白天混合层最高达3700 m,混合层顶的逆温层顶盖的厚度大约450 m,甚至更厚,对流边界层厚度能够超过4000 m,对流边界层进入残余层后发展十分迅速.研究表明,白天深厚的对流边界层是夜间保持清晰而深厚的残余混合层的先决条件,夜间深厚的残余混合层又为白天对流边界层的发展提供了一个非常有利的热力环境条件.该地区经常性出现连续性晴天使得大气残余层的累积效应得以较长时间持续发展,创造了比较有利于大气对流边界层发展的大气热力环境条件.同时,该地区陆面过程和近地层大气运动特征也为这种独特的大气热力边界层结构提供了较好的支持.就该地区发展超厚大气对流边界层的物理机理而言,地表显著增温是强有力的外部热力强迫条件,近地层强感热通量提供了较充足的能量条件,较大的对流运动和湍流运动的速度是必要的运动学条件,大气残余层的累积效应提供了有利的热力环境条件.     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

淮北棉区花铃期冠层不同高度叶片光合特性的差异

基于多层二叶模型,在自然群体条件下,将棉花冠层分为上、中、下三层,研究淮北棉花花铃期冠层上、中、下层,阴叶（无直射光照射）与阳叶（有直射光照射）的光合特性的差异。结果表明,同一高度阳叶的光量子通量密度与光合速率显著大于阴叶;不同高度叶片光量子通量密度与光合速率均表现为上层阳叶〉中层阳叶〉下层阳叶,上层阴叶〉中层阴叶〉下层阴叶;上层阳叶气孔导度大于阴叶,中、下层阴、阳叶的气孔导度无显著差异;上部叶片气孔导度〉中部叶片〉下部叶片;同一高度阳叶胞间二氧化碳浓度显著小于阴叶,随着冠层深度（形态学自上而下）的增加,两者差异增大;不同高度叶片胞间二氧化碳浓度随着冠层深度的增加,呈增加趋势,阳叶差异不显著,阴叶差异显著。     

嵌套域大小对区域气候模式模拟效果的影响

This paper presents a numerical study on the 1998 summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in central and eastern China, addressing effect of a nested area size on simulations in terms of the technique of nesting a regional climate model (RCM) upon a general circulation model (GCM). Evidence suggests that the size exerts greater impacts upon regional climate of the country, revealing that a larger nested size is su perior to a small one for simulation in mitigating errors of GCM-provided lateral boundary forcing. Also,simulations show that the RCM should incorporate regions of climate systems of great importance into study and a low-resolution GCM yields more pronounced errors as a rule when used in the research of the Tibetan Plateau, and, in contrast, our PσRCM can do a good job in describing the plateau′s role in a more realistic and accurate way. It is for this reason that the tableland should be included in the nested area when the RCM is employed to investigate the regional climate. Our PσRCM nesting upon a GCM reaches morerealistic results compared to a single GCM used.     

Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

This study investigated the relationship between the asymmetry in the duration of El Ni?o and La Ni?a and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Ni?o and La Ni?a are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Ni?a in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.     

气候变化对家燕物候期的影响分析

对镇江地区1984—2019年家燕物候资料(始见、绝见期)及同期气温、降水、日照等气象资料对比分析,结果表明:近36 a镇江地区家燕始见期在波动变化中呈提前的趋势,以4 d/10 a的速率提前.绝见期在波动变化中呈推后的趋势,以5 d/10 a的速率推后.间隔期在波动变化中呈延长的趋势,以9 d/10 a的速率延长;近...     

A cold air lake formation in a basin — a simulation with a mesoscale numerical model

Summary A formation of a cold air lake in a basin is studied with a mesometeorological model.A dynamic Boussinesq hydrostatic mesoscale numerical model is developed in a staggered orthogonal grid with a horizontal resolution of 1 km and with a varying vertical grid. The topography is presented in a block shape so that computation levels are horizontal.The mesometeorological model is tested in three idealized topography cases (a valley, a single mountain, a basin) and test results are discussed.In an alpine basin surrounded by mountains and plateaus the air is supposed to be stagnant at the beginning of the night. Due to differences in radiation cooling an inversion layer is formed in the basin and local wind circulation is studied by model simulations.With 14 Figures     

近57a长江黄河源区径流量变化异同特征分析

利用1956~2012年长江和黄河源区内2个水文站点逐月流量数据,分析了近57a两江源区径流的长期变化趋势、突变特征以及周期特征的异同。结果表明:长江源区径流量月变化呈单峰型,峰值在7月;黄河源区则表现为双峰型,峰值分别出现在7月和9月。近57a来,长江源区各季节及年平均径流量均呈现上升趋势,而黄河源区表现为年平均、春季和秋季平均流量呈下降趋势,而夏季和冬季则表现为上升趋势的特征。长江源区1960年和1968年前后的突变点比较可靠,在1998年前后可能也存在一次突变;而对于黄河源区,则在1960年和1968年前后的突变点具有较高的可靠性。长江源区年径流量主要存在9~10a和准22a的变化周期,而黄河源区年径流主要存在4a、7~8a和准16a的变化周期。      

Snow Cover Variation in the Past 45 Years (1959-2003) in the Tianshan Mountains, China

 Meteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover. The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic. The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data. The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a. The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79 ℃/10 a. The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years, and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003. The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976. The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu (Kunes) (39.3%) and Nilka (39.7%) in the west Tianshan Mountains. In contrast, the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains. There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover. In addition, snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly, however, there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

超长La Ni?a事件背景下东亚夏季风的季节内变化:1999～2000年和1984～1985年的对比分析

基于多种再分析资料和观测资料,对比分析了两次超长La Ni?a事件中东亚夏季风的季节内变化。选取的两次事件分别发生在1984～1985年和1999～2000年,但强度有明显差异,其中前者为中等强度事件,而后者则为强事件。在两次事件过程中,暖池对流偏强,西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏东偏弱,但季节内变化有很大差异。对强事件而言,6月对流开始发展,异常值在7月达到最大,8月稍弱,这与La Ni?a年合成结果一致,表明La Ni?a信号主导了东亚夏季风的季节内变化。与此不同的是,在1984～1985年事件中,6月和8月对流偏强,7月偏弱,呈双峰型异常变化。分析表明,当前一个月海温偏高时,后一个月对流偏强,减弱了太阳辐射,造成局地海温降低,偏低的海温又反过来抑制了后一个月的对流发展,暖池地区局地海气相互作用在中等强度La Ni?a事件中起到关键作用。因此,在两次超长La Ni?a事件中,东亚夏季风的季节内变化过程和影响因子有很大差异。此外,由于副高偏东,中国东部夏季降水总体上偏少。     

SPRING ICE-JAM FLOODING OF THE PEACE-ATHABASCA DELTA: EVIDENCE OF A CLIMATIC OSCILLATION

A historic record of spring ice-jam floods of the Peace-Athabasca Delta was analyzed for the years 1826–1995. The temporal pattern of flooding is non-random. The likelihood of a flood following a flood, or a non-flood following a non-flood, is greater than expected by chance. Probability analysis of flood occurrence reveals that the period 1860–1880 was a time of unusually few floods, and the period 1915–1950 was a time of unusually frequent floods. The long-term flood frequency is 1 flood in 6.25 years. Changes in flood frequency over the record reveal a pattern of oscillation described by a sine-based model that is correlated with the long-term (Gleissberg) cycle of solar activity. Monte Carlo simulation was used to test a Bennett Dam Model and a Cyclic Model. The Bennett Dam Model is unlikely to have generated the observed flood history (p=0.04). The observed flood history shows a better fit to the Cyclic Model (p=0.65). No correlations between floods and ENSO cold or warm events was detected. The most recent wet period began about 1900 and ended in the early 1960's prior to completion of the W. A. C. Bennett Dam in British Columbia. As independent corroboration of climatically-driven changes in flood frequency we present three additional lines of evidence. The pattern of annual muskrat returns (95 year record) reveals both 10 year cycles and long-term patterns that agree well with the observed flood cycle. The annual area burned in Wood Buffalo National Park is inversely related to flood occurrence. Incised channels and dendritic drainage patterns in the bed of Lake Mamawi provide probable evidence of a previous dry period in the delta. Climatic change or oscillation likely underlies the drying trend observed in recent decades in the Peace-Athabasca Delta.     

An Observational Analysis of a Derecho in South China

Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China on 17 April 2011. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system formed in an environment with medium convective available energy, strong vertical wind shear, and a dry layer in the middle troposphere, and progressed southward in tandem with a front and a surface wind convergence line. The windstorm can be divided into two stages according to differences in the characteristics of the radar echo and the causes of the gale. One stage was a supercell stage, in which the sinking rear inflow of a high-precipitation supercell with a bow-shaped radar echo induced a Fujita F0 class gale. The other stage was a non-supercell stage (the echo was sequentially kidney-shaped, foot-shaped, and an ordinary single cell), in which downbursts induced a gale in Fujita F1 class. This derecho event had many similarities with derechos observed in western countries. For example, the windstorm was perpendicular to the mean flow, the gale was located in the bulging portion of the bow echo, and the derecho moved southward along with the surface front. Some differences were observed as well. The synoptic-scale forcing was weak in the absence of an advancing high-amplitude midlevel trough and an accompanying strong surface cyclone; however, the vertical wind shear was very strong, a characteristic typical of derechos associated with strong synoptic-scale forcing. Extremely high values of convective available potential energy and downdraft convective available potential energy have previously been considered necessary to the formation of weak-forcing archetype and hybrid derechos; however, these values were much less than 2000 J during this derecho event.     

Spatial reorganization of SST anomalies by stationary atmospheric waves

The dynamics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that force stationary atmospheric waves, which in turn, feed back on the SST field is addressed. The phenomena is isolated by analyzing the dynamics of a slab ocean that is thermally coupled to an atmospheric model. Particular emphasis is put on identifying SST structures that are weakly damped by the joint effect of air–sea heat transfer and atmospheric wave dynamics.A frame work is presented that singles out long-lived SST features in a slab ocean coupled to an arbitrary linear atmospheric model. It is demonstrated that an SST anomaly eventually disintegrates into a number of propagating wave packets. The wave packets are confined in a Gaussian envelope, and each packet is tied to a stationary wave of a particular wavelength. These structures are a manifestation of coupled SST-atmosphere mode, for which the atmosphere and the ocean nearly are in thermal equilibrium. However, a small disequilibrium causes the wave packet to propagate and to broaden in an apparent diffusive manner.Central ideas pertaining to the mid-latitude SST dynamics are illustrated by analyzing the thermal feedback between a two-level atmospheric model (on a β-plane) and a dynamically passive slab ocean. The relevance of the present idealized coupled-modes to the SST variability in the mid-latitudes and in atmospheric GCMs coupled to slab oceans is discussed.     

48年来广东省不同区域的温度变化特征

根据全省86个气象站1960～2007年的温度资料,研究了48年来广东省北部、中部、东南部和西南部4个区域的温度变化特征。结果表明,4个区域的年平均气温均呈上升趋势,最低值分别出现在1976和1984年,最高值为1998年,增温速率南部沿海高于内陆,东南部为0．026℃／年,西南部0．023℃／年,中部0．021℃／年,北部0．012℃／年。各区域年平均气温20世纪60、70和80年代变化不大,90年代升高最明显。从季节分布看,各区域增温速率冬季最为明显,为0．025～0．035℃／年,秋季次之,为0．012—0．031℃／年,冬、秋增温速率均通过了95％的显著性检验;春季为0．011～0．019℃／年,夏季最小,为0．001—0．019℃／年,春、夏增温速率大多没有通过95％的显著性检验。     

Regional Distribution of Perceived Temperatures Estimated by the Human Heat Budget Model （the Klima-Michel Model） in South Korea

The regional distribution of perceived temperatures (PT) for 28 major weather stations in South Korea during the past 22 years (1983–2004) was investigated by employing a human heat budget model, the Klima-Michel model. The frequencies of a cold stress and a heat load by each region were compared. The sensitivity of PT in terms of the input of synoptic meteorological variables were successfully tested. Seogwipo in Jeju Island appears to be the most comfortable city in Korea. Busan also shows a high frequenc...