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1.
2.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

3.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

4.
Solutions of P-SV equations of motion in a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic layer contain a factor exp(±ν j z), where z is the vertical coordinate and j?=?1, 2. For computing Rayleigh wave dispersion in a multi-layered half space, ν j is computed at each layer. For a given phase velocity (c), ν j becomes complex depending on the transversely isotropic parameters. When ν j is complex, classical Rayleigh waves do not exist and generalised Rayleigh waves propagate along a path inclined to the interface. We use transversely isotropic parameters as α H , β V , ξ, ? and η and find their limits beyond which ν j becomes complex. It is seen that ν j depends on ? and η, but does not depend on ξ. The complex ν j occurs when ? is small and η is large. For a given c/β V , the region of complex ν j in a ? -η plane increases with the increase of α H /β V . Further, for a given α H /β V , the complex region of ν j increases significantly with the decrease of c/β V . This study is useful to compute dispersion parameters of Rayleigh waves in a layered medium.  相似文献   

5.
The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b m , N, M 1, M 2) that an observed b m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M 1????≤?ΔM/2,?M 2?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.  相似文献   

6.
The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N e and N i ) and temperatures (T e and T i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N e , N i , T e , and T i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.  相似文献   

7.
A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R b variation with wind speed U10 in hurricane conditions. The model relates C d (U10) with the effective roughness length Z eff (U10) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z w (U10) and Z f (U10) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α f (U10). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C d (U10), Z w (U10), and α f (U10) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z f (U10). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.  相似文献   

8.
Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system were investigated. Both white noise and exponentially correlated infiltration processes were considered. The moment equations of the pressure head (ψ) were solved numerically to obtain the variance and autocorrelation functions of ψ at 14 observation points. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to verify the numerical results and to estimate the power spectrum of ψ (S ψψ ). It was found that as the water flows through the system, the variance of the ψ (\( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \)) were damped by the system: the deeper in the system, the smaller the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \), and the larger the correlation timescale of the infiltration process (λ I ), the larger the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \). The unsaturated–saturated system gradually filters out the short-term fluctuations of ψ and the damping effect is most significant in the upper part of the system. The fluctuations of ψ is non-stationary at early time and becomes stationary as time progresses: the larger the value of λ I , the longer the non-stationary period. The correlation timescale of the ψ (λ ψ ) increases with depth and approaches a constant value at depth: the larger the value of λ I , the larger the value of λ ψ . The results of the estimated S ψψ is consistent with those of the variance and autocorrelation function.  相似文献   

9.
The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

10.
We report the results of fully three-dimensional numerical simulations of nonlinear convection in a Boussinesq fluid in an annular channel rotating about a vertical axis with lateral no-slip or stress-free sidewalls, stress-free top and bottom, uniformly heated from below, a problem first studied by Davies-Jones and Gilman (1971 Davies-Jones, RP and Gilman, PA. 1971. Convection in a rotating annulus uniformly heated from below.. J. Fluid Mech., 46: 6581.  [Google Scholar]) and Gilman (1973 Gilman, PA. 1973. Convection in a rotating annulus uniformly heated from below. Part 2. Nonlinear results. J. Fluid Mech., 57: 381400.  [Google Scholar]). A substantial range of the Rayleigh number R (Rc≤R≤O(100 Rc)), where Rc denotes the critical value at the onset of convection) is considered. It is found that the wall-localized convection mode, unaffected by the velocity boundary condition imposed on the sidewalls, is nonlinearly robust. Both directions of travelling waves, one propagating against the sense of rotation near the outer sidewall and the other propagating in the same sense as the rotation in the vicinity of the inner sidewall, are always present in the nonlinear solutions. In contrast to nonlinear convection in a rotating Bénard layer, neither convection rolls nor the Küpper–Lortz instability can exist in a rotating annular channel because of the effect of the sidewalls. It is the nonlinear interaction between the wall-localized modes and the internal mode that plays an essential role in determining the nonlinear properties of convection in a rotating annular channel. Our studies reveal systematically the various nonlinear phenomena, from steady travelling waves trapped in the vicinities of the sidewalls to convective turbulence exhibiting columnar structure.  相似文献   

11.
To alert the public to the possibility of tornado (T), hail (H), or convective wind (C), the National Weather Service (NWS) issues watches (V) and warnings (W). There are severe thunderstorm watches (SV), tornado watches (TV), and particularly dangerous situation watches (PV); and there are severe thunderstorm warnings (SW), and tornado warnings (TW). Two stochastic models are formulated that quantify uncertainty in severe weather alarms for the purpose of making decisions: a one-stage model for deciders who respond to warnings, and a two-stage model for deciders who respond to watches and warnings. The models identify all possible sequences of watches, warnings, and events, and characterize the associated uncertainties in terms of transition probabilities. The modeling approach is demonstrated on data from the NWS Norman, Oklahoma, warning area, years 2000–2007. The major findings are these. (i) Irrespective of its official designation, every warning type {SW, TW} predicts with a significant probability every event type {T, H, C}. (ii) An ordered intersection of SW and TW, defined as reinforced warning (RW), provides additional predictive information and outperforms SW and TW. (iii) A watch rarely leads directly to an event, and most frequently is false. But a watch that precedes a warning does matter. The watch type \(\{SV\), TV, \(PV\}\) is a predictor of the warning type \(\{SW\), RW, \(TW\}\) and of the warning performance: It sharpens the false alarm rate of the warning and the predictive probability of an event, and it increases the average lead time of the warning.  相似文献   

12.
We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U c (under large η) or η (under large U c) from a large value (U ch for U c and η h for η) to a small one (U cl for U c and η l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU c = U ch ? U cl and δη = η h ? η l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.  相似文献   

13.
Dubovikov and Canuto (Dubovikov, M.S. and Canuto, V.M., Complete Eulerian-mean tracer equation for coarse resolution OGCMs. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 2006, 100, 197–214), after averaging the tracer conservation equation in density coordinates and transforming to height coordinates, concluded that present ocean models are missing important terms in their mean tracer equations. Here we point out some errors made by Dubovikov and Canuto (2006 Dubovikov, MS and Canuto, VM. 2006. Complete Eulerian-mean tracer equation for coarse resolution OGCMs. Geophys. & Astrophys. Fluid Dynam., 100: 197214. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) in their isopycnal averaging procedure. We draw on the temporal-residual-mean (TRM) theory and show that when the isopycnal averaging and coordinate transformation are performed correctly, the tracer equations of present ocean circulation models are recovered. We therefore conclude that present ocean circulation models are not neglecting the leading order terms identified by Dubovikov and Canuto (2006 Dubovikov, MS and Canuto, VM. 2006. Complete Eulerian-mean tracer equation for coarse resolution OGCMs. Geophys. & Astrophys. Fluid Dynam., 100: 197214. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]).  相似文献   

14.
The hydrogen isotopic composition(δD) of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes(C27, C29, and C31) from lacustrine sediments has been widely applied to reconstruct terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological changes. However, few studies have addressed whether the aquatic-derived n-alkanes can affect the δD values of lake sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes, which are usually regarded as a recorder of the terrestrial hydrological signals. Here we systematically investigated δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from modern aquatic plants, both near-shore and off-shore surface sediments, surrounding terrestrial plant litters, as well as river water and lake water in Lake Qinghai and its satellite lakes on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our data showed that(i) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants varied from-184‰ to-132‰ for n-C27, from-183‰ to-138‰ for n-C29, and from-189‰ to-130‰ for n-C31, respectively, with no significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues;(ii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants were generally more positive than those from surrounding terrestrial plants, possibly because that they recorded the D-enrichment of lake water in this semi-arid region;(iii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from surface sediments showed significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues, due to the larger aquatic input of n-C27 to the sedimentary lipid pool than that of n-C31, and(iv) n-C27 δD values of near-shore aquatic plants and near-shore sediments are more negative than those from off-shore as a result of lower δD values of near-shore lake water. Our findings indicate that in this region(i) the offset between sedimentary n-C27 and n-C31 δD values(ΔδDC27-C31) could potentially be used to evaluate if sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes are derived from a single source;(ii) while δD values of n-C27 may be influenced by lake water hydrological changes, sedimentary n-C31 is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants and thus its δD can serve as a relatively reliable indicator for terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions.  相似文献   

15.
An alternative model for the nonlinear interaction term Snl in spectral wave models, the so called generalized kinetic equation (Janssen J Phys Oceanogr 33(4):863–884, 2003; Annenkov and Shrira J Fluid Mech 561:181–207, 2006b; Gramstad and Stiassnie J Fluid Mech 718:280–303, 2013), is discussed and implemented in the third generation wave model WAVEWATCH-III. The generalized kinetic equation includes the effects of near-resonant nonlinear interactions, and is therefore able, in theory, to describe faster nonlinear evolution than the existing forms of Snl which are based on the standard Hasselmann kinetic equation (Hasselmann J Fluid Mech 12:481–500, 1962). Numerical simulations with WAVEWATCH have been carried out to thoroughly test the performance of the new form of Snl, and to compare it to the existing models for Snl in WAVEWATCH; the DIA and WRT. Some differences between the different models for Snl are observed. As expected, the DIA is shown to perform less well compared to the exact terms in certain situations, in particular for narrow wave spectra. Also for the case of turning wind significant differences between the different models are observed. Nevertheless, different from the case of unidirectional waves where the generalized kinetic equation represents a obvious improvement to the standard forms of Snl (Gramstad and Stiassnie 2013), the differences seems to be less pronounced for the more realistic cases considered in this paper.  相似文献   

16.
Recent estimates of fracture energy G in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G u a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G and G f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s2). The resulting fracture energy G f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G f and G being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G appears to increase further and surpasses G f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

17.
The study of laminar flows with simple streamlines in conducting fluids that might support kinematic dynamo action has a long history. Early successful examples include the Gailitis (1970 Gailitis, A. 1970. Self-excitation of a magnetic field by a pair of annular vortices. Mag. Gidrod, 6: 1922. (English translation: Magnetohydrodynamics, 6:14–17) [Google Scholar]) dynamo, which has two meridional rolls. We show here that a single meridional roll, considered as a limit of a modified Gailitis-like dynamo, can also support kinematic dynamo action in a deep spherical shell. This flow has a claim to be the simplest such flow possible.  相似文献   

18.
The system Mg2SiO4MgOH2O was investigated at pressures between 85 and 160 kbar and at temperatures between 750 and 1200°C. In runs for a gel with Mg/Si ratio of 3 and with 4.0 wt.-percent H2O, a dense hydrous magnesian silicate, denoted phase B by Ringwood and Major, was found at pressures from about 100 kbar to at least 160 kbar in the whole temperature range studied. In the following table the crystallographic parameters and chemical formula of phase B, determined in this study, are compared with those of the other dense hydrous silicates in Mg2SiO4MgOH2O.
  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, the relationships of the plunges and azimuths of T and P axes versus the strikes, dips, and rakes of two seismic nodal planes were derived to provide reference for earthquake researchers. The independence of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes in focal mechanism solution was discussed, and it was concluded that three parameters, i.e., the azimuths of T, B and P axes, are completely independent. The focal mechanism solution representation based on Euler rotation was introduced, using three Euler angles in place of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes, and three focal mechanism solution representations were briefly compared and analyzed in respect of accuracy on the basis of the assumption of rounding; it was concluded that the Euler angle representation has better accuracy, compared with the azimuth representation and the traditional representation with T, B, and P axes.  相似文献   

20.
DSDP Hole 504B was drilled into 6 Ma crust, about 200 km south of the Costa Rica Rift, Galapagos Spreading Center, penetrating 1.35 km into a section that can be divided into four zones—Zone I: oxic submarine weathering; Zone II: anoxic alteration; Zones III and IV: hydrothermal alteration to greenschist facies. In Zone III there is intense veining of pillow basalts. Zone IV consists of altered sheeted dikes. Isotopic geochemical signatures in relation to the alteration zones are recorded in Hole 504B, as follows:
PhaseCompositionSpace groupCell parametersDensity (g cm?3)
abcβ
(Å)(Å)(Å)(°)
ChondroditeMg5Si2O10H2P21/c7.9144.75210.350108.713.06
ClinohumiteMg9Si4O18H2P21/c13.6954.74710.284100.643.14
Phase AMg7Si2O14H6P637.8609.5732.96
Phase BMg23Si8O42H6P21/c10.60014.09810.092104.053.32
ZoneDepth(m)Average87Sr/86SrAverage δ18O (%o)Average δD (%o)
I275–5500.70327.3−63
II550–8900.70296.5−45
III890–10500.70355.6−31
IV1050–13500.70325.5−36
Alteration temperatures are as low as 10°C in Zones I and II based on oxygen isotope fractionation. Strontium isotopic data indicate that a circulation of seawater is much more restricted in Zone II than in Zone I. Fluid inclusion measurements of vein quartz indicate the alteration temperature was mainly 300 ± 20°C in Zones III and IV, which is consistent with secondary mineral assemblages.The strontium, oxygen, and hydrogen isotopic compositions of hydrothermal fluids which were responsible for the greenschist facies alteration in Zones III and IV are estimated to be 0.7037, 2‰, and 3‰, respectively. Strontium and oxygen isotope data indicate that completely altered portions of greenstones and vein minerals were in equilibrium with modified seawater under low water/rock ratios (in weight) of about 1.6. This value is close to that of the end-member hydrothermal fluids issuing at 21°N EPR.Basement rocks are not completely hydrothermally altered. About 32% of the greenstones in Zones III and IV have escaped alteration. Thus 1 g of fresh basalt including the 32% unaltered portion are required in order to make 1 g of end-member solution from fresh seawater in water-rock reactions.  相似文献   

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