海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状

海啸数值预报技术在海啸预警、防灾减灾工作及海啸物理机制研究工作中都具有举足轻重的作用,特别是在海啸预警及海啸防灾减灾工作中扮演着重要的角色.根据海啸产生及海啸波传播的特征,分别总结了海啸源产生数值模型、海啸传播和淹没模型的研究现状,重点介绍了当前主流地震海啸数值预报模型数值预报技术的发展、预警系统建设及应用现状.旨在为...     

Review of continental shelf marine geotechnics: Distribution of soils,measurement of properties,and environmental hazards

Abstract

Sands and silty sands are the predominant surficial soils of continental shelves. Cohesive fine‐grained soils are typical off the mouths of large rivers, near bays and estuaries, and in basins located on the shelf. The stratigraphy of shelf soils is very poorly known for most engineering purposes, except in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta.

Vibratory coring is the most common method of sampling shelf sands to depths of about 13 m; greater soil depths are sampled by borings often using drilling and wireline sampling tools. Employment of self‐contained or wireline static cone penetrometers to obtain in situ measurements of sands has not been as common in the United States as in Europe. Dynamic piston corers are the most common samplers in cohesive soils, but rotary and hydraulically activated incremental corers are becoming available for marine use. Self‐contained or wireline vane shear devices and static cone penetrometers are used for the in situ testing of cohesive soils, and the latter device is also used for cohesionless soils. Dynamic cone penetrometers have been developed and have had limited experimental use at sea. In situ electrical resistivity and nuclear‐transmission and backscatter probes have been used in cohesive soils to obtain bulk‐density and water‐content measurements and for stratigraphic correlation. Acoustical properties of cohesive and cohesionless soils have been measured by in situ probes and have been estimated from results of geophysical surveys made on ships that are under way.

Environmental hazards to the foundations of offshore structures include earthquakes, wave‐induced loading and scour, and burrowing animals. Reported bottom‐current velocities on the United States continental shelf appear to have maximums of about 0.5 m/s under fair‐weather conditions and greater than about 5 m/s under hurricane conditions. Cyclical loading of the seafloor induced by storm waves appears to be a major hazard to soil stability in some areas.

A representative sample of the widely scattered engineering and scientific literature of continental shelf marine geotechnics and geotechnically related subjects has been made to aid marine geologists, geotechnologists, and other specialists.     

近百年气候变化及可能的自然影响因素研究进展

就国内外关于近百年的气候变化特征进行综述,并对太阳活动、火山爆发以及海气相互作用等自然因素对近百年气候变化的影响作了详细的总结。结果发现最近100年(1906—2005年)全球平均地表温度上升了0.56—0.92℃,中国的平均气温上升了(0.6±0.1)℃,但是20世纪全球和中国年平均降水没有明显的变化趋势。目前关于太阳活动、火山爆发和气候系统内部海气相互作用对于气候变化的影响,还存在很大的不确定性。     

自然气候变率对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展

对近年来关于自然气候变率对近百年全球、中国气候以及海洋影响的研究成果进行了详细的总结分析。目前的研究认为,20世纪后50年的气温变化,更可能是人类活动的结果,而20世纪的前50年的气候变化,被认为是自然外力和人类活动共同的影响结果;对于中国20世纪气候增暖的原因,研究认为人类活动可能已经对中国的气候变暖产生了影响,但太阳活动、火山爆发及气候系统内部的低频振动对气候变化可能也具有重要影响。另外研究认为引起全球海洋总热容量增加的重要原因是人类活动的影响。     

Offshore geological hazards in the Hellenic arc

Abstract

The Hellenic Arc is located within one of world's most seismically active areas and has experienced extreme tectonism through Tertiary and Quaternary times. This activity controls the rates of uplift and subsidence and determines the sediments supply and depot centers. This paper discusses the various geological hazards detected in selected parts of the Hellenic Arc and examines the causative factors. The areas surveyed were the North Aegean Trough, the Kythera Ridge in the outer island arc, the Corfu/Kefalinia/Zante shelf/slope, and the Thermaicos, Corinth, Patras, Amvrakia, and Malliacos gulfs, as well as the Trichonis Lake. The potential geological hazards observed are (1) active faulting, (2) sediment instabilities, (3) gas‐charged sediments, (4) salt doming, (5) erosion, transport, and deposition of sediments, and (6) seismicity, volcanism, and tsunamis. The major types of sediment instabilities that have been documented on seabed include (1) surficial sediment creep in slopes ranging from 1 to 2° resulting infolding and faulting of the surficial sediments, (2) translational and rotational slides in slopes ranging from 2 to 40°, (3) debris flow, and (4) turbidity currents. Factors that contribute to slope instability in the Hellenic Arc are (1) sloping bottom, (2) thick accumulations of Plio‐Quatemary sediments, (3) present day high rates of sedimentation, (4) closely spaced active faults, (5) earthquakes, and (6) active diapirism. The contribution of long period waves to slope failure in these areas appears to be of minor importance, since the slope failures occur in depths of more than 150 m. Gas‐charged sediments and pockmarks have been observed in areas associated with deltaic, fjord‐like, and open sea environments. This gas is presumably formed by the decomposition of biogenic material. Numerous disasters that took place during historical times and greatly affected the coastal zone were caused by the above‐mentioned hazards. Damage to offshore installations are limited to cable failure.     

我国海洋灾害的风险预测研究

文章基于近20年来我国的海洋灾害数据分析对比,得出我国沿海区域已成为海洋灾害影响的高危险和高风险区域,并且其威胁程度呈现明显的上升趋势。在此基础上,对海洋灾害的基本特征进行详细的分析,认为其具有开放性与动态性和不确定性与可预测性等基本特征,为海洋灾害的风险预测与管理提供了信心与希望。而后,回顾国内外的风险预测研究历史,总结前人已有的研究成果,认为对待海洋灾害最行之有效的方法就是在海洋资源开发利用规划阶段就考虑到海洋灾害这一问题,从风险管理与控制的角度,编制海洋灾害风险区划图并建立风险管理体系,对保障沿海区域的经济持续、快速、安全健康发展具有重大战略意义和现实意义。     

Review of data on eolian fluxes of industrial and natural lead to the lands and seas in remote regions on a global scale

During preindustrial times about half the lead in the troposphere came from soil dusts while the remainder came from volcanic gases. Today the proportion of this natural lead in the atmosphere is overwhelmed by industrial lead emitted from smelters and automobile exhausts. In the Antarctic tropospheric cell, atmospheric concentrations of industrial lead are five-fold greater than natural lead concentrations, while in urban atmospheres the proportions of industrial lead are more than 10 000-fold greater than those of natural lead.About 90% of industrial lead emissions to the global atmosphere are introduced into the Northern hemisphere westerlies from North America, Europe and Japan, with most of the remainder being introduced into the Southern hemisphere westerlies from Brazil, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. This creates a north-south gradient in global atmospheric lead concentrations across meridional tropospheric circulation cells because their convergence barriers restrict latitudinal mixing. Atmospheric lead concentrations in a pole-to-pole strip across the central Pacific show a decline in lead within meridional cells on either side of the Northern westerlies. This hemispheric set contains higher lead concentrations on the whole than does the corresponding set of meridional cells in the Southern hemisphere, because of the isolating effect of the equatorial mixing barrier. In the Southern hemisphere the westerlies cell again contains higher lead concentrations than do adjacent meridional cells, with the Antarctic cell being the least lead polluted portion of the Earth's atmosphere.Tabulations of eolian input fluxes of lead from these atmospheric reservoirs to the Earth's surface for remote regions are given in this review, as well as methods for estimating the proportions of natural and industrial lead in soil dust, sea salt, volcanic sulfate and anthropogenic particles in air and rain.     

天津近海海底地质灾害类型及声学特征

作者利用浅地层剖面资料研究了天津近海海域存在的主要海底地质灾害.研究发现:浅层气、埋藏三角洲前缘、水下潮流沙脊、陡坎、沙波等地质灾害发育.浅层气主要分布在研究区北部海域的近岸附近,南部海域远离海岸浅层气逐渐增多;埋藏三角洲前缘分布区北至涧河口,南至南港工业区东部海域;水下沙脊分布于北部海域5 m～7 m水深的近岸带,地...     

福建东山岛地质灾害特征与成因初探

海岛是海上陆地国土和人类开发海洋的远涉基地及前进支点。海岛大幅度地快速增长的开发活动与工程建设使脆弱的海岛生态环境正遭受到严重威胁。东山岛是福建第二大岛,近10年随着水产养殖与育苗、风电建设、环岛公路和房地产开发等海岛利用和开发强度的加大,海岛地质灾害及潜在风险陡增。基于现场调查和遥感影像解译,分析东山岛赋存的地质灾害类型及其分布,初步探究了主要地质灾害的诱因,为更有效地保护和可持续性开发东山岛,制定合理长效规划、防灾与减灾对策提供准确依据,并为福建及周边基岩岛的地质灾害调查与防治提供实测数据参考。     

南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟

结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录,在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上,分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式,对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算,计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格,外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域,使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程;第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域,使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程;第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域,使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的,应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好,可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。     

Assessing hazards due to contaminant discharge in coastal waters

Models of contaminant dispersion in the marine environment have mostly sought to determine the mean concentration field. At a location not far from a pollution source, concentration is intermittently high, depending on whether the site is immersed in the concentrated contaminant plume which emanates from the source. At such a locale the probability of immersion, denoted by visitation frequency, is a more meaningful measure of nuisance than mean concentration. Two methods of computing visitation frequency from moored current meter data, each having particular advantages and drawbacks, are presented. One technique estimates visitation frequency from probability distributions of the position and velocity of water parcels originating from the effluent source. The second method entails simulating the configuration and movement of a contaminant plume. Required by both schemes is the plume cross-axial width as a function of time since release. A simple procedure of approximating this using the results of dye diffusion studies is described. These methods are applied to the coastal region off Long Island, New York, where current meter and dye diffusion data are available.     

气候演变与自然灾害

气候变化是引发自然灾害的重要因素之一。在漫长的地史过程中,气候周期性的变化使自然灾害的多发期呈现出一定的周期性。本文研究了不同时间尺度的气候冷热变化周期与自然灾害多发期的关系,发现气候由执为冷时期与自然爽发期具有很好的对应关系。从气候周期的定位结构来看,现在和２１世纪是处在２０．４和０．４ｋａ气候周期中的冷时段,由此推断本世纪末和２１世纪可能是自然灾害的多发期。     

埕岛海区浅地层地质灾害因素分析

埕岛海区处于特殊的地理位置,是海底地质灾害频发地带,因而直接威胁到海上工程设施的安全。过去多限于对某些重点区域有针对性的声学探测和实测资料的解释,通过收集20多份井场调查资料,对埕岛海区浅地层地质灾害按水深进行分类,并对成因进行分析。结果表明,5 m等深线以浅多冲蚀沟槽;8~12 m地质灾害体类型较多;12~16 m多为充填相地层。     

西菲律宾海盆中央裂谷周缘地质灾害特征及诱发因素

基于2018年在西菲律宾海盆最新实测的高分辨率浅地层剖面和多波束测深数据,对西菲律宾海盆中部的中央裂谷及周缘区域的海洋地质灾害进行分析。在研究区总体识别出两大类灾害地质因素：（1）破坏性地质因素,主要包括滑坡、活动断层、冲刷沟谷和岩浆底辟;（2）限制性地质因素,以海山、陡坎、沟槽为主。利用浅地层剖面资料,精细刻画出灾害地质体的类型、形态、内部结构特征,并论述其分布区域、发育特点,探讨地质灾害产生的主要诱发因素及造成的不利影响。对研究区地质灾害的识别、分布范围的圈定和成因的分析,能够为海洋工程建设、装备预设和海上航行提供重要的地质依据,规避不利影响,提前做好风险预判。     

Modelling of natural and synthetic polyelectrolyte interactions in natural waters by using SIT, Pitzer and Ion Pairing approaches

In this paper SIT and Pitzer models are used for the first time to describe the interactions of natural and synthetic polyelectrolytes in natural waters. Measurements were made potentiometrically at 25 °C in single electrolyte media, such as Et₄NI and NaCl (for fulvic acid 0.1 < I /mol L^− 1 < 0.75), and in a multi-component medium simulating the composition of natural waters at a wide range of salinities (for fulvic and alginic acids: 5 < S < 45) with particular reference to sea water [Synthetic Sea Water for Equilibrium studies, SSWE]. In order to simplify calculations, SSWE was considered to be a “single salt” BA, with cation B and anion A representing all the major cations (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺) and anions (Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) in natural sea water, respectively. The ion pair formation model was also applied to fulvate and alginate in artificial sea water by examining the interaction of polyanions with the single sea water cation. Results were compared with those obtained from previous speciation studies of synthetic polyelectrolytes (polyacrylic and polymethacrylic acids of different molecular weights). Results indicate that the SIT, Pitzer and Ion Pairing formation models used in studies of low molecular weight electrolytes may also be applied to polyelctrolytes with a few simple adjustments.     

Sources and sinks of methylgermanium in natural waters

New data have extended our understanding of the distribution and behavior of methylgermanium in the environment. Laboratory attempts to induce aerobic methylation with known biological and abiotic methylating agents were unsuccessful; this confirmed previous field observations of methylgermanium's unreactive behavior. However, biomethylation of inorganic germanium was observed in the anaerobic digestor of a sewage treatment plant, which suggested a terrestrial methanogenic source. Attempts to locate such a source in methanogenic swamps and their drainages reveal very low methylgermanium concentrations typical of other remote, pristine rivers. Polluted rivers have monomethylgermanium (MMGe) and dimethylgermanium (DMGe) concentrations 3–100 times higher than those of pristine rivers, which suggests an anthropogenic source of methylgermanium as a result of the synergistic effects of sewage treatment and coal-ash derived inorganic germanium contamination. A new high-precision profile of MMGe and DMGe in the Sargasso Sea shows conservative behavior with no vertical gradients. However, marine anoxic basins have both inorganic germanium enrichment and methylgermanium depletion, which suggests that of marine anaerobic processes are responsible for demethylating marine organogermanium. These results all suggest that methylgermanium is produced on the continents, is unreactive in the open ocean, and is destroyed in marine anoxic environments. The residence time of organogermanium in the sea, based on a continental source (pristine rivers), is at least 1 Ma, consistent with its unreactive nature, its observed distribution in the ocean, and rates of destruction in anoxic basins.     

Integrating anthropogenic factors, geomorphological indicators and local knowledge in the analysis of coastal flooding and erosion hazards

The settlement and development of Québec’s maritime coastline has generally taken place without consideration for coastal dynamics and coastal hazards. Consequently, fighting coastal erosion has become a necessity. Until now, the construction of rigid walls and encroachments has been the preferred approach to the problem. In the Chaleur Bay region, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding because a number of residential, commercial and transportation infrastructures have been installed on beach terraces and sand spits. Recent storms, such as the storm of December 2, 2005, have made possible a better understanding of how these rigid defence structures amplify the effects of storm surges and waves. These structures drive the sand away from the coast, lowering beach levels and even causing beaches to vanish entirely from the areas situated in front of the defence structures. The end result is a weakening of the natural capacity of these coastal systems to absorb the energy of waves and a greater risk of coastal flooding. An integrated approach using local knowledge on the one hand, along with LIDAR surveys and a DGPS system on the other hand, have made possible to map the levels reached by flooding at the time of the storm. The results indicate that such levels vary greatly in spatial terms and that the difference between the levels actually reached and the water level measured by tide gauge can be as much as 2 m; a difference that is due to anthropogenic perturbations. This raises questions concerning the safety and the reference levels used for mapping coastal flooding risk. Taking into account knowledge of local communities, analysis of water levels, geomorphological indicators and aggravating anthropogenic factors, an approach and basic criteria are put forward with a view of establishing a reference level for the mapping of flood risk that can be used by community land-use planners.     

Occupational health and safety hazards in Atlantic Canadian aquaculture: Laying the groundwork for prevention

The growing aquaculture industry is projected to feature ever more prominently in the lives and economies of rural coastal communities in Atlantic Canada and around the world. Both private industry and government have a responsibility to ensure employment opportunities created in aquaculture take place in healthy, safe environments. However, systematic occupational health and safety (OHS) research within this industry, an important prevention tool, is still in its infancy. With particular emphasis on marine aquaculture in Atlantic Canada, we provide a detailed outline of the structure of the industry from feed production through to processing, identify potential OHS hazards associated with each of these activities and make recommendations for future research and action.     

The physics of gas chimney and pockmark formation,with implications for assessment of seafloor hazards and gas sequestration

Pockmarks form where fluids discharge through seafloor sediments rapidly enough to make them quick, and are common where gas is present in near-seafloor sediments. This paper investigates how gas might lead to pockmark formation. The process is envisioned as follows: a capillary seal traps gas beneath a fine-grained sediment layer or layers, perhaps layers whose pores have been reduced in size by hydrate crystallization. Gas accumulates until its pressure is sufficient for gas to invade the seal. The seal then fails completely (a unique aspect of capillary seals), releasing a large fraction of the accumulated gas into an upward-propagating gas chimney, which displaces water like a piston as it rises. Near the seafloor the water flow causes the sediments to become “quick” (i.e., liquefied) in the sense that grain-to-grain contact is lost and the grains are suspended dynamically by the upward flow. The quickened sediment is removed by ocean-bottom currents, and a pockmark is formed. Equations that approximately describe this gas–piston–water-drive show that deformation of the sediments above the chimney and water flow fast enough to quicken the sediments begins when the gas chimney reaches half way from the base of its source gas pocket to the seafloor. For uniform near-surface sediment permeability, this is a buoyancy control, not a permeability control. The rate the gas chimney grows depends on sediment permeability and the ratio of the depth below seafloor of the top of the gas pocket to the thickness of the gas pocket at the time of seal failure. Plausible estimates of these parameters suggest gas chimneys at Blake Ridge could reach the seafloor in less than a decade or more than a century, depending mainly on the permeability of the deforming near-surface sediments. Since these become quick before gas is expelled, gas venting will not provide a useful warning of the seafloor instabilities that are related to pockmark formation. However, detecting gas chimney growth might be a useful risk predictor. Any area underlain by a gas chimney that extends half way or more to the surface should be avoided.