Variability and connectivity of plaice populations from the Eastern North Sea to the Western Baltic Sea,and implications for assessment and management

An essential prerequisite of sustainable fisheries is the match between biologically relevant processes and management action. Various populations may however co-occur on fishing grounds, although they might not belong to the same stock, leading to poor performance of stock assessment and management. Plaice in Kattegat and Skagerrak have traditionally been considered as one stock unit. Current understanding indicates that several plaice components may exist in the transition area between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. A comprehensive review of all available biological knowledge on plaice in this area is performed, including published and unpublished literature together with the analyses of commercial and survey data and historical tagging data. The results suggest that plaice in Skagerrak is closely associated with plaice in the North Sea, although local populations are present in the area. Plaice in Kattegat, the Belts Sea and the Sound can be considered a stock unit, as is plaice in the Baltic Sea. The analyses revealed great heterogeneity in the dynamics and productivity of the various local components, and suggested for specific action to maintain biodiversity.     

On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.     

Editorial

The long‐term mean sea level in the Baltic Sea is investigated using the coupled three‐basin model constructed by Carlsson (1997). The model is forced by the observed sea level in the Kattegat, the freshwater supply, horizontal air pressure and density gradients, and the wind stress. Both the seasonal variations and the slope of the mean sea level are investigated and compared with the results of another oceanographic model (Lisitzin, 1962) and a geodetic model (Ekman &; Mäkinen, 1996). In the geodetic model an unofficial height system, NH60, is used, and one part of the investigation is to find out whether this height system is useful for oceanographers. The estimated mean sea level difference between the northern and the southern parts of the Baltic Sea are: 17.1 cm (the present model), 26 cm (Lisitzin's model), and 18.3 cm (the geodetic model). It is concluded that the mean sea level difference between the northern and southern parts of the Baltic Sea is due mainly to horizontal variations of density and air pressure, and that the height system NH60 is suitable for oceanographie applications.     

Variability of Sea Surface Heights in the Baltic Sea: An Intercomparison of Observations and Model Simulations

Sea level changes in the Baltic Sea are dominated by internal, short-term variations that are mostly caused by the ephemeral nature of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic area. Tides are small and their influence decreases from western parts of the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Proper. Superimposed to the large short-term sea level changes (up to few decimeters from day to day) are seasonal and interannual variations (centimeters to decimeters). This study focuses on the comparison of sea surface heights obtained from observations and from a high resolution oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. From this comparison, the accuracy of the modeled sea surface variations is evaluated, which is a necessary precondition for the further use of the oceanographic model in geodetic applications. The model reproduces all observed Baltic sea level variations very reliably with an accuracy of 5 to 9 cm (rms) for short-term variations (up to 2 months) and 8 cm (rms) for long-term variations (>2 months). An additional improvement of the model can be attained by including long-period sea level variations of the North Sea. The model performs well also in the case of extreme sea level events, as is shown for a major storm surge that occurred at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in November 1995.     

Physical processes in the transition zone between North Sea and Baltic Sea. Numerical simulations and observations

The dynamics in the transition zone between the North Sea and Baltic Sea are analyzed here using data from a 22-year-long climatic simulation with a focus on the periods 1992–1994 and 2001–2003 when two recent major inflow events occurred. Observations from gauges and in situ measurements are used to validate the model. Parameters, which cannot be easily measured, such as water and salt transports through straits, have been compared against similar previous estimates. The good performance of simulations is attributed to the finer resolution of the model compared to earlier set ups. The outflow in the Kattegat, which is an analogue of the tidal outflows, tends to propagate to the North over the shallows without showing a substantial deflection to the right due to the Earth's rotation. The inflow follows the topography. The different inflow and outflow pathways are explained as a consequence of the specific combination of bathymetry, axial and lateral processes. The circulation in Kattegat is persistently clockwise with an eastern intensification during inflow and a western one during outflow regimes. The tidal wave there propagates as Kelvin wave, keeping the coast on its right. The flows in the two main straits reveal very different responses to tides, which are also highly asymmetric during inflow and outflow conditions. The circulation has a typical two-layer structure, the correlation between salinity and velocity tends to increase the salt transport in the salinity conveyor belt. The transversal circulation in the entrance of the Sound enhances the vertical mixing of the saltier North Sea water. The long-term averaged ratio of the water transports through the Great Belt and the Sound is ∼2.6-2.7 but this number changes reaching lower values during the major inflow in 1993. The transports in the straits are asymmetric. During inflow events the repartition of water penetrating the Baltic Sea is strongly in favor of the pathway through the Sound, which provides a shorter connection between the Kattegat and Baltic proper. The wider Great Belt has a relatively larger role in exporting water from the Baltic into the North Sea. A demonstration is given that the ventilation of the Baltic Sea deep water is not only governed by the dynamics in the straits and the strong westerly winds enhancing the eastward propagation of North Sea water (a case in 1993), but also by the clockwise circulation in the Kattegat acting as a preconditioning factor for the flow-partitioning.     

Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change—theory and observations

The dynamics controlling the response of the Baltic Sea to changed atmospheric and hydrologic forcing are reviewed and demonstrated using simple models. The response time for salt is 30 times longer than for heat in the Baltic Sea. In the course of a year, the Baltic Sea renews most of its heat but only about 3% of its salt. On the seasonal scale, surface temperature and ice-coverage are controlled by the atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea as demonstrated by e.g. the strong inter-annual variations in winter temperature and ice-coverage due to variations in dominating wind directions causing alternating mild and cold winters. The response of surface temperature and ice-coverage in the Baltic Sea to modest climate change may therefore be predicted using existing statistics. Due to the long response time in combination with complicated dynamics, the response of the salinity of the Baltic Sea cannot be predicted using existing statistics but has to be computed from mechanistic models. Salinity changes primarily through changes in the two major forcing factors: the supply of freshwater and the low-frequency sea level fluctuations in the Kattegat. The sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to changed freshwater supply is investigated using a simple mechanistic steady-state model that includes baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, the major dynamical factor controlling the freshwater content in the Kattegat and thereby the salinity of water flowing into the Baltic Sea. The computed sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface salinity to changes of freshwater supply is similar to earlier published estimates from time-dependent dynamical models with higher resolution. According to the model, the Baltic Sea would become fresh at a mean freshwater supply of about 60 000 m³ s⁻¹, i.e. a 300% increase of the contemporary supply. If the freshwater supply in the different basins increased in proportion to the present-day supply, the Bothnian Bay would become fresh already at a freshwater supply of about 37 000 m³ s⁻¹ and the Bothnian Sea at a supply of about 45 000 m³ s⁻¹. The assumption of baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, crucial for the salinity response of the Baltic Sea to changed freshwater supply, is validated using daily salinity profiles for the period 1931–1977 from lightship Läsö Nord.     

Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and freshwater in the Baltic Sea

A three-dimensional, eddy-permitting ocean circulation model with implemented bottom boundary layer model and flux-corrected transport scheme is used to calculate the pathways and ages of various water masses in the Baltic Sea. The agreement between simulated and observed temperature and salinity profiles of the period 1980–2004 is satisfactory. Especially the renewal of the deep water in the Baltic proper by gravity-driven dense bottom flows is better simulated than in previous versions of the model. Based upon these model results details of the mean circulation are analyzed. For instance, it is found that after the major Baltic inflow in January 2003 saline water passing the Słupsk Furrow flows directly towards northeast along the eastern slope of the Hoburg Channel. However, after the baroclinic summer inflow in August/September 2002 the deep water flow spreads along the southwestern slope of the Gdansk Basin. Further, the model results show that the patterns of mean vertical advective fluxes across the halocline that close the large-scale vertical circulation are rather patchy. Mainly within distinct areas are particles of the saline inflow water advected vertically from the deep water into the surface layer. To analyze the time scales of the circulation mean ages of various water masses are calculated. It is found that at the sea surface of the Bornholm Basin, Gotland Basin, Bothnian Sea, and Bothnian Bay the mean ages associated to inflowing water from Kattegat amount to 26–30, 28–34, 34–38, and 38–42 years, respectively. Largest mean sea surface ages of more than 30 years associated to the freshwater of the rivers are found in the central Gotland Basin and Belt Sea. At the bottom the mean ages are largest in the western Gotland Basin and amount to more than 36 years. In the Baltic proper vertical gradients of ages associated to the freshwater inflow are smaller than in the case of inflowing saltwater from Kattegat indicating an efficient recirculation of freshwater in the Baltic Sea.     

Using Mean Sea Surface Topography for Determination of Height System Differences across the Baltic Sea

The mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters is reliably known in the Nordic height system NH 60. Using this knowledge we estimate differences between NH 60, based on the Amsterdam zero point, and Russian, Polish, and German height systems along the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea, based on the Kronstadt zero point. The differences agree within a few centimeters. We also make a simple study of the mean sea level difference between Kronstadt and Amsterdam (which is found to have been approximately 25 cm when sea level was still to be seen there).     

Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level

The connection between variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Baltic sea level has been investigated for the period 1825–1997. The association between the NAO and the strength of the zonal geostrophic wind stress over the Northwest Atlantic suggests an NAO impact on Baltic sea level variations, because the monthly mean sea level mainly is determined by externally driven variations caused by wind conditions over the North Sea. Several period bands were found to have high correlation between oscillations in the winter (JFM) NAO index and the Baltic Sea winter mean sea level. The correlation was, however, higher in the 20th century than in the 19th. During the last two decades, the correlation between the NAO index and the sea level has been exceptionally high. The winter mean of a regional atmospheric circulation index had a correlation with the Kattegat winter mean sea level of 0.93. With the Baltic sea level the correlation was 0.91, compared with the NAO index correlation for the same period of 0.74. The regional index also showed a high correlation with the mean summer and mean autumn sea levels, when the corresponding seasonal NAO indices showed a weak connection. The temporal variation of the connection with the NAO index implies a regional atmospheric circulation occasionally differing from the large-scale circulation associated with the NAO. Seasonal means of the sea level in Stockholm do, however, reflect the regional wind climate to a large extent, and the Baltic sea level is a useful proxy for identifications of climatic dependencies in the region.     

Shallow gas depth-contour map of the Skagerrak-western Baltic Sea region

A shallow gas depth-contour map covering the Skagerrak-western Baltic Sea region has been constructed using a relatively dense grid of existing shallow seismic lines. The digital map is stored as an ESRI® shape file in order to facilitate comparison with other data from the region. Free gas usually occurs in mud and sandy mud but is observed only when sediment thickness exceeds a certain threshold value, depending on the water depth of the area in question. Gassy sediments exist at all water depths from approx. 20 m in the coastal waters of the Kattegat to 360 m in the Skagerrak. In spite of the large difference in water depths, the depth of free gas below seabed varies only little within the region, indicating a relatively fast movement of methane in the gas phase towards the seabed compared to the rate of diffusion of dissolved methane. Seeps of old microbial methane occur in the northern Kattegat where a relatively thin cover of sandy sediments exists over shallow, glacially deformed Pleistocene marine sediments. Previous estimates of total methane escape from the area may be correct but the extrapolation of local methane seepage rate data to much larger areas on the continental shelf is probably not justified. Preliminary data on porewater chemistry were compared with the free gas depth contours in the Aarhus Bay area, which occasionally suffers from oxygen deficiency, in order to examine if acoustic gas mapping may be used for monitoring the condition of the bay.     

Sub-recent nitrogen-isotope trends in sediments from Skagerrak (North Sea) and Kattegat: Changes in N-budgets and N-sources?

We determined ¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratios of total nitrogen in surface sediments and dated sediment cores to reconstruct the history of N-loading of the North Sea. The isotopic N composition in modern surface sediments is equivalent to and reflects the isotopic mixture of oceanic nitrate on the one hand (δ¹⁵N = 5‰) and the imprint of river-borne nitrogen input into the SE North Sea (δ¹⁵N up to 12‰ in estuaries of the SE North Sea) on the other hand. We compare the results with δ¹⁵N records from pre-industrial sediment intervals in cores from the Skagerrak and Kattegat areas, which both constitute significant depositional centres for N in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea/North Sea transition. As expected, isotopically enriched anthropogenic nitrogen was found in the two records from the Kattegat area, which is close to eutrophication sources on land. Enrichment of δ¹⁵N in cores from the Skagerrak – the largest sediment sink for nitrogen in the entire North Sea – was not significant and values were similar to those found in sediment layers representing pre-industrial conditions. We interpret this isotopic uniformity as an indication that most riverine reactive nitrogen with its characteristic isotopic signature is removed by denitrification in shallow shallow-water sediments before reaching the main sedimentary basin of the North Sea.     

Pole tide in the Baltic Sea

The pole tide, which is driven by the Chandler Wobble, has a period of about 14 months and typical amplitudes in the World Ocean of ～0.5 cm. However, in the Baltic Sea the pole tide is anomalously high. To examine this effect we used long-term hourly sea level records from 23 tide gauges and monthly records from 64 stations. The lengths of the series were up to 123 years for hourly records and 211 years for monthly records. High-resolution spectra revealed a cluster of neighboring peaks with periods from 410 to 440 days. The results of spectral analysis were applied to estimate the integral amplitudes of pole tides from all available tide gauges along the coast of the Baltic Sea. The height of the pole tide was found to gradually increase from the entrance (Danish Straits, 1.5–2 cm) to the northeast end of the sea. The largest amplitudes—up to 4.5–7 cm—were observed in the heads of the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia. Significant temporal fluctuations in amplitudes and periods of the pole tide were observed during the 19th and 20th centuries.     

The oxygen isotope composition of water masses within the North Sea

Based on measurements of the ¹⁸O isotope composition of 247 samples collected over a 3-year period we have assessed the oxygen isotope composition of water masses in the North Sea. This is the first δ¹⁸O data set that covers the entire North Sea basin. The waters lie on a mixing line: δ¹⁸O (‰_VSMOW) = −9.300 + 0.274(S) with North Atlantic sub-polar mode water (SPMW) and surface waters, and Baltic Sea water representing the saline and freshwater end members respectively. Patterns exhibited in surface and bottom water δ¹⁸O distributions are representative of the general circulation of the North Sea. Oxygen-18 enriched waters from the North Atlantic enter the North Sea between Scotland and Norway and to a lesser extent through the English Channel. In contrast, oxygen-18 depleted waters mainly inflow from the Baltic Sea, the rivers Rhine and Elbe, and to a lesser degree, the Norwegian Fjords and other river sources. Locally the δ¹⁸O–salinity relationship will be controlled by the isotopic composition of the freshwater inputs. However, the range of local freshwater compositions around the North Sea basin is too narrow to characterise the relative contributions of individual sources to the overall seawater composition. This dataset provides important information for a number of related disciplines including biogeochemical research and oceanographic studies.     

Tracing water mass mixing in the Baltic–North Sea transition zone using the optical properties of coloured dissolved organic matter

The distribution and characteristics of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Baltic – North Sea transition zone were studied. The aim was to assess the validity of predicting CDOM absorption in the region on the basis of water mass mixing alone and demonstrate the utility of CDOM as an indicator of water mass mixing in coastal seas. A three-end-member mixing model representing the three major allochthonous CDOM sources was sufficient to describe the patterns in CDOM absorption distribution observed. The three-end-member water masses were the: Baltic outflow, German Bight and the central North Sea. Previously, it was thought that water from the German Bight transported northwards in the Jutland coastal current only sporadically influenced mixing between the Baltic and North Sea. The results from this study show that water from the German Bight is detectable at salinities down to 12 in the Kattegat and Belt Sea. On average, 23% of the CDOM in bottom waters of the Kattegat, Great Belt, Belt Sea, Arkona Sea and the Sound originated from the German Bight. Using this conservative mixing model approach, local CDOM inputs were detectable but found to be limited, representing only 0.25% of CDOM in the surface waters of the Kattegat and Belt Sea. The conservative mixing of CDOM makes it possible to predict its distribution and characteristics and offers a powerful tool for tracing water mass mixing in the region. The results also emphasize the need to include the Jutland Coastal current in hydrodynamic models for the region.     

Flow resistance in the Great Belt,the biggest strait between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

The Danish Straits are part of the transition area between the North Sea and the central Baltic Sea. More precisely, the Danish Straits connect Kattegat to the Arkona Basin and includes the relatively narrow and shallow sub-areas: Great Belt, Little Belt, Fehmarn Belt and Sound. The flow resistances in the straits are hydraulically determined by among other factors, the contractions, sills and stratification found in the straits. Close to the entrance to the Arkona Basin the Darss and Drogden Sills are located that trap inflowing dense water partially before it enters the central Baltic Sea. Hence, the resistances in the Danish Straits are of crucial importance for the stratification and ecosystems in the central Baltic Sea. The present work comprises calculations of flow resistance in the Great Belt based on measurements collected as part of the Great Belt Fixed Link investigations. The specific resistance in the Great Belt is determined to be an average of 41.2 × 10⁻¹² s² m⁻⁵, but it depends heavily on the interface position. When calculating long-term discharge time-series on the basis of the momentum equation it is advised to apply a seasonal varying resistance.     

渤黄海沿海2月份海平面异常偏高成因分析

使用1980—2010年的水位、气温、海温、气压和风场资料,对中国渤黄海沿海2月份的海平面变化特征以及异常偏高成因进行了探讨,分析结果表明:近30年,渤黄海沿海2月份海平面呈现明显的上升趋势,2009年和2010年2月份的海平面达到近30年的高值,冬季高海平面导致全年平均海平面偏高。近两年2月份海平面处于多个长周期振动的高位重合期,各振幅叠加的结果近100 mm,对海平面起了明显的抬升作用。高海平面使得辽宁、河北以及山东等沿岸地区的海水入侵距离和土壤盐渍化程度均有所增加,海岸侵蚀加重;上海在2009—2010年连续2年2月份发生了近年较严重的咸潮入侵。2009年和2010年2月份,气压较常年同期显著偏低,冬季季风显著偏弱,是海平面上升的主要原因之一。     

Transport Through the Contraction Area in the Little Belt

The Great Belt, the Øresund and the Little Belt connect the central Baltic Sea and the Kattegat. A fixed station was moored in the contraction area in the Little Belt during the period 18–28 July 1995, measuring temperature, salinity and current in two levels, while discharge was measured by the RVDana. The composite Froude number calculated at the fixed station shows that the two layer flow through this area was most often supercritical. The discharges were satisfactorily related to the currents measured at the fixed station, and time-series of transports through the Little Belt were established. When compared to the transports through the Øresund the water transport ratio (Øresund:Little Belt) was found to be 4·4, while the salt transport ratio was found to be 3·0. The resistance of the Little Belt, when considering the differences in sea level from Gedser to Hornbæk, was 1839×10⁻¹² s² m⁻⁵. On the basis of water level and surface salinity measurements made during the period 1931–76, a net discharge of 2300 m³ s⁻¹and a net salt transport of 36 tonnes s⁻¹through the Little Belt from the central Baltic Sea were found.     

Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort…     

Characterization of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Baltic Sea by excitation emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is the major light absorber in the Baltic Sea. In this study, excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectra and UV–visible absorption spectra of CDOM are reported as a function of salinity. Samples from different locations and over different seasons were collected during four cruises in 2002 and 2003 in the Baltic Sea in both Pomeranian Bay and the Gulf of Gdansk. Absorption by CDOM decreased with increased distance from the riverine source and reached a relatively stable absorption background in the open sea. Regression analysis showed that fluorescence intensity was linearly related to absorption by CDOM at 375 nm and a_CDOM(375) absorption coefficients were inversely related to salinity. Analysis of CDOM-EEM spectra indicated that a change in composition of CDOM occurred along the salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea. Analysis of percent contribution of respective fluorophore groups to the total intensity of EEM spectra indicated that the fluorescence peaks associated with terrestrial humic components of the CDOM and total integrated fluorescence decreased with decreasing CDOM absorption. In contrast, the protein-like fraction of CDOM decreased to a lesser degree than the others. Analysis of the percent contribution of fluorescence peak intensities to the total fluorescence along the salinity gradient showed that the contribution of protein-like fluorophores increased from 2.6% to 5.1% in the high-salinity region of the transect. Fluorescence and absorption changes observed in the Baltic Sea were similar to those observed in similar transects that have been sampled elsewhere, e.g. in European estuaries, Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Cape Fear River plume in the South Atlantic Bight, although the changes in the Baltic Sea occurred over a much smaller salinity gradient.     

Variations in the Baltic Sea wave fields

The surface waves in the Baltic Sea are hindcast with the spectral wave model HYPAS during a 12-month period. The model results show a strong temporal and spatial variation in the wave field due to the physical dimensions of the different basins and the predominant wind field. The highest waves in the area are found in the outer part of Skagerrak, as well as in the central and southern parts of the Baltic Proper. To get significant waves above 6 m high, strong winds (15–20 m/s) must have been blowing for 6 to 24 h from a favourable direction over a deep area.