Tsunami warning system for the pacific coast of Canada

Abstract

The Tsunami Warning System for the Pacific Coast of Canada, which is part of the International Tsunami Warning System for the Pacific Ocean, is reviewed and major problems are identified. The efficiency of the present warning system is examined in view of the prediction by the international seismological community that major earthquakes are likely to occur in various seismic gaps around the Pacific rim in the near future. Whereas the present system is more or less adequate for the outer coast, at present there is no warning system for tsunamis generated locally in the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Georgia, or in Puget Sounds.     

Tsunami flooding extension for coastal zones of Mexico

Abstract

Joint probabilities of runup height due to astronomical tides and tsunamis are calculated for five bays on the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. Runup heights equaled or exceeded on the average of once per 100 years, and once per 200 years, for those bays, are evaluated. Calculations are based on wave height probabilities obtained from sets of harmonic constituents and tsunami heights recorded during the last 28 years at tidal stations on each location.

Extension of potential tsunami terrestrial flooding for populated coastal zones around those bays can be determined from the previous results. One case is illustrated showing endangered features in the hazardous zones, and recommendations to prevent casualties and property damages are given.     

On the problem of local tsunamis and possibilities of their warning

At present, the problem of predicting tsunamis with source earthquakes near the shoreline remains practically unresolved. It is shown that, in the Pacific region, 87% of tsunamigenous earthquake epicenters are located closer than 100 km to the shoreline and 67% are closer than 50 km. For a more detailed analysis, the area of the Pacific Ocean was divided into ten subregions: Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands, Japan, Indonesia, Australia and Oceania, South and Central America, Alaska, and the Aleutian Islands. Each subregion was analyzed individually. All the earthquakes from 1950 to 2003 with Ms >= 6.0 causing tsunamis with intensities I > 0 were processed. The ITDB/PAC 2004 database was used as the data source. For each subregion, mean and minimal travel times were calculated. The minimal travel times for all the regions except for a single one are less than 10 min. It is shown that, in the near earthquake zone, no tsunami alert based sea-level gauge data is possible. One probable solution could be based on detecting hydroacoustic signals that precede strong earthquakes in the near-shore zone.     

利用TOPEX/Poseidon高度计资料提取的太平洋M2内潮能通量分布

基于内波动力学方程,提出利用TOPEX/Poseidon高度计资料提取内潮的方法.利用该方法,结合1992年10月到2002年6月共10a的TOPEX/Poseidon高度计资料和Levitus(1998)资料,给出了整个太平洋M₂内潮能通量的分布,并与观测资料进行比测,两者符合较好.同时也发现沿整个太平洋边界M₂内潮能通量向大洋内部输入的总功率为58.4GW,其中北太平洋对此贡献为30.2GW,南太平洋为28.2GW,可见南、北太平洋的贡献是基本相等的.东太平洋的总量为17.8GW,而西太平洋为40.6GW,两者差异较大(以160°W作为东、西太平洋分界线).     

Ring-Shaped Seismicity Structures Forming before Large Earthquakes and the Great Earthquakes in the Western and Eastern Pacific

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - We consider the characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes and the great earthquakes in the periphery of the Pacific Ocean. It is found that...     

Anthropogenic CO2 distribution in the North Pacific Ocean

The depth of penetration of anthropogenic CO₂ in the North Pacific Ocean based on carbonate data in the literature is discussed. The results indicate that the deepest penetration (over 2000 m) is found in the northwest North Pacific. The shallowest penetration (to less than 400 m) is found in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Depth of penetration of anthropogenic CO₂ appears to have been controlled by such factors as deep water formation in the Northwest Pacific; upwelling in the equatorial Pacific and; vertical mixing in the western boundary areas. These results compare well with results implied from tritium, C-14, and freons distributions. The total inventory of excess carbon in the North Pacific was 14.7±4×10¹⁵ g around 1980.     

基于SCHISM模式的全球潮波模拟

基于非结构网格半隐式跨尺度海洋模式(semi-implicit cross-scale hydroscience integrated system model,SCHISM),作者采用非结构三角网格,对全球大洋潮波进行数值模拟.通过调和分析,将196个潮位站的实测数据与模拟结果进行比较验证,两者符合良好,M2、K1分...     

热带太平洋海表二氧化碳分压的时空变化特征及其与物理场间的联系

为研究赤道太平洋海表二氧化碳分压(pCO₂^sw)年际变化的机制,基于中科院海洋所宋金明研究团队于2021年发布的中国首套全球海表二氧化碳分压数据产品,使用相关性分析、经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function, EOF)分析和奇异值分解(singular value decomposition, SVD)等方法,研究了2005～2019年赤道太平洋pCO₂^sw气候态分布及其去趋势后的年际异常的时空演变特征;结合pCO₂^sw与多种参数的相关性和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)过程探讨了赤道中西太平洋pCO₂^sw年际异常中心形成的原因。研究结果显示,热带太平洋pCO₂^sw季节变化、年际异常及其EOF第一模态特征向量沿赤道均出现两个中心,其中一个在赤道中西太平洋日界线附近,另一个在赤道中东...     

Features of Manifestation of the Chilean Tsunami on April 1, 2014, and September 16, 2015, on Russia’s Pacific Coast

As a result of mooring of autonomous seabed stations in bays of Shikotan Island, the records of two tsunamis were obtained from strong earthquakes that occurred off the coast of Chile on April 1, 2014, and September 16, 2015. In both cases, prolonged intense vibrations with a pronounced group structure were observed in various bays, mainly with periods of the main modes of resonance oscillations. The second event was more dangerous, and the wave height was 0.9 m at Malokurilskaya Bay. The increase in the energy of fluctuations in 2015 was more significant, manifesting itself in a wider range of periods. Numerical simulation of the tsunami showed that the nature of wave propagation in both earthquakes was identical in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean, approaching Russia’s Pacific coast, and was characterized by weak damping, in contrast to waves propagating to the south and southwest. This explains why expect large waves can be expected on the coasts of the Kurils from earthquakes off the coast of South America, despite the considerable distance.     

Interannual variations of the air-sea carbon dioxide exchange in the different regions of the Pacific Ocean

Interannual variations of the air-sea CO 2 exchange from 1965 to 2000 in the Pacific Ocean are studied with a Pacific Ocean model.Two numerical experiments are performed,including the control run that is forced by climatological monthly mean physical data and the climate-change run that is forced by interannually varying monthly mean physical data.Climatological monthly winds are used in both runs to calculate the coefficient of air-sea CO 2 exchange.The analysis through the differences between the two runs shows that in the tropical Pacific the variation of export production induced by interannual variations of the physical fields is negatively correlated with that of the air-sea CO 2 flux,while there is no correlation or a weak positive correlation in the subtropical North and South Pacific.It indicates that the variation of the physical fields can modulate the variation of the air-sea CO 2 flux in converse ways in the tropical Pacific by changing the direct transport and biochemical process.Under the interannually varying monthly mean forcing,the simulated EOF1 of the air-sea CO 2 flux is basically consistent with that of sea surface temperature(SST) in the tropical Pacific,but contrary in the two subtropical Pacific Ocean.The correlation coefficient between the regionally integrated air-sea CO 2 flux and area-mean SST shows that when the air-sea CO 2 flux lags SST by about 5 months,the positive coefficient in the three regions is largest,indicating that in the tropical Pacific or on the longer time scale in the three regions,physical processes control the flux-SST relationship.     

Sedimentary characteristics and the implications of cobalt-rich crusts resources at Caiwei Guyot in the Western Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Cobalt-rich crust has attracted increased attention due to their economic value. Studies have indicated that seamounts in the Western Pacific Ocean are rich in cobalt-rich crust resources. The Caiwei Guyot in Western Pacific Ocean is one of the cobalt-rich crust exploration areas contracted between China and the International Seabed Authority. A large volume of research has been conducted to elucidate the tectonic evolution, basement type, sediment type, gravity and magnetic anomaly characteristics, and geochemical characteristics of shallow surface sediments at Caiwei Guyot. However, a research gap exists on the sedimentary strata below the pelagic deposits and above the volcanic basement of the Caiwei Guyot. This paper summarizes that two main types of sediments existing on the top of Caiwei Guyot. The deposition thickness on the top of Caiwei Guyot is characterized by three sedimentary centers and exposed periphery. Pelagic sediments are difficult to form at the northeastern portion and edge area of Caiwei Guyot due to the strong bottom current environment, which makes these areas suitable for crust growth. This paper delineated three cobalt-rich crust prospective areas at the Caiwei Guyot with of significant implications for exploration and mining-lease-block selections at Caiwei Guyot.     

铜藻的分类地位、生物地理分布以及2016年底黄海漂浮铜藻源头的初步分析

通过对我国沿海多次野外实地考察以及文献报道,对铜藻进行了分类地位及生物地理分布特征介绍。结合分子数据,目前由过去单一的狭义铜藻Sargassum horneri和线形马尾藻Sargassum filicinum结合而成广义铜藻。其生物地理分布区系由西北太平洋扩大到东北太平洋的有限区域。根据我国沿海铜藻底栖和漂浮种群的发生季节变化,初步判断我国可能存在2个以上的底栖铜藻种群：春季成熟型、夏季成熟型和/或秋季成熟型。结合铜藻的自然生境、底栖分布区系以及海流等水文资料,本文对2016年底黄海漂浮铜藻种群的源头进行了初步分析,其最可能地域源头为渤海海峡区及其邻近水域,最可能的种群来源为夏季成熟型。     

北冰洋浮游生物空间分布及其季节变化的模拟

低营养级浮游生物生态动力过程对环境变化的响应非常敏感。随着全球气候变化加剧,北冰洋正在经历快速的环境变化。厘清北冰洋低营养级浮游生物季节分布与变化特征是探究北冰洋生态系统对环境快速变化响应的前提,也是评估北极海区固碳能力的重要依据。基于此,本文构建了海洋–海冰–生物地球化学循环模型,并对北冰洋叶绿素浓度以及浮游生物结构的时空变化特征进行了模拟,结果表明:(1)北冰洋表层叶绿素浓度的峰值主要出现在5月,且太平洋一侧叶绿素浓度高于大西洋一侧;随着海水层化,表层受营养盐限制的海区呈现次表层叶绿素浓度最大值现象,且由陆架向海盆,次表层叶绿素浓度最大值层逐渐加深;9月,叶绿素浓度高值重回水体上层,太平洋一侧海区表层叶绿素浓度呈现较为明显的次峰值。(2)由于太平洋和大西洋入流营养盐浓度及结构的不同,北冰洋表层浮游生物群落结构存在明显空间差异。太平洋一侧,硅藻和中型浮游动物占优,硅藻在5月和9月出现生物量峰值,微型浮游植物在3月、5月和6月维持相对较高生物量;而大西洋一侧,在早春－春末夏初－夏秋经历了微型浮游植物－硅藻－微型浮游植物的演替,总体而言,微型浮游植物和微型浮游动物占优。此外,两侧海区浮游动物浓度峰值相较浮游植物滞后约半月。     

The Kuril Earthquakes and tsunamis of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007: Observations,analysis, and numerical modeling

Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M _w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.     

Numerical simulation of the action of distant tsunamis on the Russian Far East coast

Results of a numerical simulation of the action of distant tsunamis on the coast of the Russian Far East are presented. It is shown that waves generated by focuses of the strongest M9 earthquakes in the region of South Chilean coast, as well as in the region of Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, are most dangerous for this coast. Other tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean, by virtue of their geographical position, orientation of focuses, and absence of pronounced channels (submarine ridges) along paths of tsunami propagation are not dangerous for it even at a limit magnitude of submarine subduction earthquakes. The simulation results are compared with historical data about manifestations of distant tsunamis on the Russian Far East coast.     

福岛核事故泄漏入海的137Cs长期输运的数值研究

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 released large amounts of radionuclides, including ~(137)Cs, into the Pacific Ocean. A quasi-global ocean radioactive transport model with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5°×0.5° and 21 vertical layers was thereafter established to study the long-term transport of the Fukushima-derived ~(137)Cs in the ocean.The simulation shows that the plume of ~(137)Cs would be rapidly transported eastward alongside the Kuroshio Current and its extensions. Contaminated waters with concentrations lower than 2 Bq/m3 would reach the west coast of North America 4 or 5 years after the accident. The ~(137)Cs tends to be carried, despite its very low concentration, into the Indian and South Pacific Oceans by 2016 via various branches of ocean currents.Meanwhile, the ~(137)Cs concentrations in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean decrease rapidly with time. Up to now the highly contaminated waters have remained in the upper 400 m, showing no evidence of significant penetration to deeper layers.     

Seasonal variation of water temperature in the Seto Inland Sea

The seasonal variation of water temperature in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan is examined using data analysis and numerical experiments and is shown to be controlled by heat exchange through the sea surface and horizontal heat dispersion from the Pacific Ocean. The average water temperature goes down from the Pacific Ocean to the center of the Seto Inland Sea indicating that 4.0 to 6.0×10¹⁵ cal day^?1 (1.6 to 2.5×10¹⁶ joule day^?1) of heat is transported from the Pacific Ocean to the Seto Inland Sea and is lost through the sea surface. The amplitude of seasonal variation of water temperature is large at the center of the Seto Inland Sea and the maximum water temperature is reached first at Bisan Straits and last at Iyo-Nada.     

CERTAIN PROPERTIES AND CAUSES OF VARIATIONS OF THE SOUTH EQUA-TORIAL COUNTERCURRENT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN

Marine investigations were carried out in the western Central Equatorial Pacific region from 1976 to 1979 by three Chinese research vessels "Xiangyanghong 05", "Xiangyanghong 09" and "Shijian" belonging to the National Bureau of Oceanography. The data of currents, surface wind, drift of the ship, temperature, salinity, and so on, were obtained during the investigations, which provides more reliable basis for further studies on the South Equatorial Countercurrent in the Pacific Ocean. In this paper certain properties and causes of variations of the South Equatorial Countercurrent in the Pacific Ocean are analysed according to the above-mentioned data.     

环南澳大利亚太平洋-印度洋海洋间南极中层水环流

On the basis of the salinity distribution of isopycnal(σ_0=27.2 kg/m~3) surface and in salinity minimum, the Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW) around South Australia can be classified into five types corresponding to five regions by using in situ CTD observations. Type 1 is the Tasman AAIW, which has consistent hydrographic properties in the South Coral Sea and the North Tasman Sea. Type 2 is the Southern Ocean(SO) AAIW, parallel to and extending from the Subantarctic Front with the freshest and coldest AAIW in the study area. Type 3 is a transition between Type 1 and Type 2. The AAIW transforms from fresh to saline with the latitude declining(equatorward). Type 4, the South Australia AAIW, has relatively uniform AAIW properties due to the semienclosed South Australia Basin. Type 5, the Southeast Indian AAIW, progressively becomes more saline through mixing with the subtropical Indian intermediate water from south to north. In addition to the above hydrographic analysis of AAIW, the newest trajectories of Argo(Array for real-time Geostrophic Oceanography) floats were used to constructed the intermediate(1 000 m water depth) current field, which show the major interocean circulation of AAIW in the study area. Finally, a refined schematic of intermediate circulation shows that several currents get together to complete the connection between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. They include the South Equatorial Current and the East Australia Current in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, the Tasman Leakage and the Flinders Current in the South Australia Basin, and the extension of Flinders Current in the southeast Indian Ocean.