Flood vulnerability and buildings’ flood exposure assessment in a densely urbanised city: comparative analysis of three scenarios using a neural network approach

Natural Hazards - Advances in the availability of multi-sensor, remote sensing-derived datasets, and machine learning algorithms can now provide an unprecedented possibility to predict flood events...     

Impacts of the carbon emission trading system on China’s carbon emission peak: a new data-driven approach

Natural Hazards - Over the past four decades, China’s extensive economic growth mode has led to substantial greenhouse gas emissions, and China has become the world’s largest emitter...     

The effects of transportation network failure on people’s accessibility to hurricane disaster relief goods: a modeling approach and application to a Florida case study

Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption.     

Pareto’s law and sample size: a case study of China’s urban system 1984–2008

While Pareto’s law has been widely supported by empirical evidence in urban studies, past studies have focused on finding best fits for city rank-size distribution. A main concern with Pareto’s law is the truncation of sample selection, for which few studies have examined it directly. This study tests three existing threshold methods (number threshold, size threshold, and urban population percentage threshold) using China’s city system as a case study. In addition, this study proposes a new method based upon the percentage threshold of the total number of cities. A systematic analysis is applied to examine the relationship between Pareto exponent and sample size using different threshold methods. The results show that Pareto exponent is sensitive to sample size and the truncation point. Including only large cities is problematic because a slight change in the truncation point will yield quite different results of Pareto exponent. In addition, the new method, the percentage threshold of the total number of cities method, presents an advantage over previous methods, in that this method yields a consistent set of results over a wide range of thresholds. Finally, when using this new method with China’s city system, the Pareto exponent presents a turning point in 1996, representing China’s transition from a planned economy to a more market oriented economy during that period.     

An overview of the city of Gweru,Zimbabwe’s water supply chain capacity: towards a demand-oriented approach in domestic water service delivery

Following complaints about water shortages in some areas of Gweru, the paper assessed the availability of enabling capacities to efficiently and sufficiently deliver water to the residents of Gweru in line with the existing level of demand. The key inspected capacity aspects were infrastructure, human resources, finances and physical availability of raw water at source. Purposively selected informants from Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA) and Gweru city council (GCC) provided data on the infrastructural, financial and human resources situation of GCC. Dam levels data for Gweru’s three supply dams were obtained from ZINWA records through the assistance of Sanyati Catchment Hydrologist. The raw water availability was assessed with the aid of Mann–Kendall test using a 10 years period data set from 2003 to 2012 for trend analysis. Findings revealed that the water sources were not experiencing major changes in water levels, to be precise, the changes were insignificant. However, given the increase in population and demand, any slightest negative change in the supply chain would further widen the gap between supply and demand. The study also uncovered that GCC had challenges in terms of the infrastructure, mainly due to financial constraints. Notably, GCC was not experiencing high staff turnover, but it was however, seriously under staffed and failing to effectively monitor water use in the city. Therefore, strong financial injection is required to support staff and resuscitate the reticulation system. Given the perpetual water shortages in Gweru and the status quo in the supply chain, water demand management strategies, wastewater use and consumer education are consequently proposed as measures that would ensure continuous water supply for all needs in the city.     

Dis/possessive collectivism: Property and personhood at city’s end

This article uses the case of anti-eviction politics to examine the urban land question. Following the ideas and practices of the Chicago Anti-Eviction Campaign and its global interconnections, it traces the potentialities and limits of poor people’s movements as they battle displacement and enact a politics of emplacement. In doing so, it seeks to expand existing understandings of dispossession. Drawing on critical race studies and postcolonial theory, the article pays attention to the relationship between property and personhood in the context of long histories of racial exclusion and colonial domination. It asks: what politics of home and land is possible outside the grid of secure possession and sovereign self? The work of the Chicago Anti-Eviction Campaign points to how various modes of collectivism can be asserted through practices of occupation as well as through global frameworks of human rights. Challenging the secure categories of property and personhood through which liberalism is constituted, such politics is attuned to the present history of racial banishment but is also subject to aspirations of resolution and possession.     

Steel Scrap’s Discovery and Utilization: Based on China

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Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems.     

Making a new area in Xiong’an: Incentives and challenges of China’s “Millennium Plan”

On April 1, 2017, China announced to initiate the Xiong’an New Area (XNA) plan, which is a national-level strategy aimed at alleviating the pressures felt by Beijing and promoting the integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city-region. In China, a city-region can be viewed as an outcome of state spatial selectivity that aims to manage crises and maintain governance through strong state involvement. This paper attempts to provide a broad view of the XNA plan by examining it in the context of China’s long-term efforts to coordinate the BTH region, explaining the incentives associated with choosing Xiong’an, and analyzing the challenges the plan has faced. Considering that theoretical insights based on Western experience may not be applicable to China, this paper can contribute to the debate revealing the logics of city-region building in different contexts.     

Older people’s psychosocial needs in a post-disaster rural community of China: an exploratory study

Older people are arguably one of the most vulnerable groups during a disaster. Existing studies either in China or in other countries predominantly focus on the more Western, pathology-based mental health approach in addressing the impact of disasters on older victims and their needs. However, the concept of ‘psychosocial’ recognises that problems caused by emergencies can simultaneously be of a social nature and a psychological one. This concept emerged from a growing critique on individual oriented mental health approach in disaster contexts. The present study was conducted to explore older people’s needs from a psychosocial perspective. The research site was a Chinese rural community located in the epicentre of ‘5.12’ Wenchuan earthquake (Ms = 8.0) occurred in 2008. The authors conducted content analyses on the qualitative in-depth interviews with 10 (5 males and 5 females) out of 30 older persons from this community. The findings revealed three major psychosocial problems: (1) constant fear of recurring debris flows; (2) sense of helplessness; and (3) disruption to previous social network. Indubitably, the participants reported family members and neighbours as their major sources of social support in emergency situations. This exploratory study argues that older people being exposed to disasters will not only develop psychological problems but also suffer disruption to their social support network and puts forward that empowering family and strengthening community cohesion are important initiatives for helping professionals to promote older people’s psychosocial well-being and enhance their resilience to natural disasters.     

Changes in carbon intensity of China’s energy-intensive industries: a combined decomposition and attribution analysis

There has been growing interest among researchers in factors influencing carbon emissions of energy-intensive industries in China due to the important roles they play. Such studies mainly focused on evaluating carbon emissions and identifying the contributing factors separately for each energy-intensive industry. Regarding energy-intensive industries as a whole and investigating the contribution of each industry to changes in carbon intensity have not yet been sufficiently addressed and quantified. In order to deeply understand this issue, this study employed the LMDI decomposition analysis to study driving forces (e.g., emission coefficient, energy intensity, and industrial structure) of carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries. Then, attribution analysis was further used to study the contribution of each energy-intensive industry to the percent change in carbon intensity through each impact factor. The results showed that the carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries dropped by 31.83% from 1996 to 2014. The energy intensity effect was largely responsible for this decrease, of which, five industries were the contributors except for the fuel-processing industry. The industrial structure effect also contributed to the decrease, and non-metallic industry and fuel-processing industry played important roles. However, the emission coefficient effect showed a slight impact on increasing carbon intensity, which principally due to chemical industry and power generation industry. The findings suggested that the adaptability and sensitivity of different energy-intensive industries to the implemented policies were various. Based on the results, differentiated and feasible policies related to energy intensity, industrial structure, and energy structure for energy-intensive industries were provided to further mitigate carbon intensity.     

Airy’s isostatic model: a proposal for a realistic case

This work derives algebraic expressions for Airy-type isostatic equilibrium and disequilibrium of lithospheric blocks within asthenosphere, considering a more realistic case of continuously varying densities of the lithosphere along mutually perpendicular directions. Isostatic (dis)equilibrium must be linked to the porosity and density of the rock matrix, and to pore fluid density since these factors govern the bulk density of wet sediments/porous rocks. Two combinations of exponential and linear increase of density with depth are demonstrated. Isostatic disequilibrium would speed up sinking/uplift of the lithospheric blocks. Given any other (empirical) equations for density variation in three perpendicular directions, isostatic (dis)equilibrium such as Eqs. 14, 17, 18, 28, and 29 can be theorized as well.