Application of the Clean Development Mechanism in the Sanitation Sector: “Proof of Concept”

Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector account for only 4% of the total production, with wastewater management accounting for accurately 8 to 10% of this contribution. Wastewater disposal and treatment activities, mainly contributes to non‐CO₂ gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Capturing or avoiding these emissions is thus both a concern and an opportunity. The clean development mechanism (CDM) offers an instrument to internalize global climate concerns into the design of wastewater treatment facilities. Properly designed facilities could improve effluent quality and optimize the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, thus ensuring additional revenues to pay for capital, operation and maintenance costs and possibly justify higher levels of wastewater treatment. This document summarizes the experience of the “Rio Frio CDM project” in Colombia, as an example of what is achievable through the CDM application in wastewater treatment upgrade in developing countries. This document summarizes the scope of the project, the methodology used to establish current greenhouse emissions and future reductions, and the estimated financial results.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

Sources and variability of CO2 in a prealpine stream gravel bar

Gravel bars (GBs) contribute to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from stream corridors, with CO₂ concentrations and emissions dependent on prevailing hydraulic, biochemical, and physicochemical conditions. We investigated CO₂ concentrations and fluxes across a GB in a prealpine stream over three different discharge‐temperature conditions. By combining field data with a reactive transport groundwater model, we were able to differentiate the most relevant hydrological and biogeochemical processes contributing to CO₂ dynamics. GB CO₂ concentrations showed significant spatial and temporal variability and were highest under the lowest flow and highest temperature conditions. Further, observed GB surface CO₂ evasion fluxes, measured CO₂ concentrations, and modelled aerobic respiration were highest at the tail of the GB over all conditions. Modelled CO₂ transport via streamwater downwelling contributed the largest fraction of the measured GB CO₂ concentrations (31% to 48%). This contribution increased its relative share at higher discharges as a result of a decrease in other sources. Also, it decreased from the GB head to tail across all discharge‐temperature conditions. Aerobic respiration accounted for 17% to 36% of measured surface CO₂ concentrations. Zoobenthic respiration was estimated to contribute between 4% and 8%, and direct groundwater CO₂ inputs 1% to 23%. Unexplained residuals accounted for 6% to 37% of the observed CO₂ concentrations at the GB surface. Overall, we highlight the dynamic role of subsurface aerobic respiration as a driver of spatial and temporal variability of CO₂ concentrations and evasion fluxes from a GB. As hydrological regimes in prealpine streams are predicted to change following climatic change, we propose that warming temperatures combined with extended periods of low flow will lead to increased CO₂ release via enhanced aerobic respiration in newly exposed GBs in prealpine stream corridors.     

A bivariate stochastic Gamma diffusion model: statistical inference and application to the joint modelling of the gross domestic product and CO2 emissions in Spain

This paper examines the use of a bivariate stochastic Gamma diffusion model to represent the co-evolution of the stochastic variables CO₂ emission and gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain. These variables were selected in view of the strong correlation between them. We compare the results obtained to those provided by the Gamma one-dimensional process with exogenous factors, taking CO₂ emission as an endogenous variable and GDP as the exogenous factor. This methodology was applied to a real case, with two dependent variables: firstly, GDP and CO₂ emission from the combustion of fossil fuels (gas, liquid and solid fuels) and cement manufacture in Spain. And secondly, with GDP and CO₂ emission from the consumption and flaring of natural gas in Spain. The joint dynamic evolution of these factors is represented by the proposed model. In addition, a comparison is made with results obtained from fitting the data using the Gamma diffusion process with external factors, in which GDP is the variable containing the external information. This implementation was carried out on the basis of annual observations of the variables over the periods 1986–2008 and 1986–2009, respectively.     

Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and enhancing “removals of greenhouse gas emissions by forests” in developing countries through positive incentives is regarded as an essential component of the post-2012 climate regime for stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and an important way of engaging developing countries in global mitigation efforts. We aimed to evaluate the potential effectiveness of REDD+ by integrating it into a land use option framework. One of our goals was to develop scenarios for evaluating the impacts of land use changes on carbon and environmental processes. In addition, we aimed to quantify the potential economic benefits to society of compensated reductions and to identify hotspots for applying REDD+. Three land use change scenarios were examined: (I) business as usual (BAU), (II) economic development, and (III) REDD+. A case study in Indonesia was examined using these land use scenarios and policy interventions, evaluating their effects on carbon emissions, socioeconomics, and environmental features of a spatial system using land use models. Significant emissions and water erosion reductions were predicted to be achieved under the REDD+ scenario, due to reduced deforestation of <6% over the next decade; >0.14 Mt CO₂e reduction was predicted relative to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, the spatial land use model indicated that REDD+ payments of forest carbon credits in the compliance market would play a key role in compensating rural communities and plantation companies for their opportunity cost in ending deforestation. This study provides an example of integrating land use modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to evaluate the potential impacts of REDD+.     

Hydropower – A Green Energy? Tropical Reservoirs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Reservoirs are man‐made lakes that severely impact on river ecosystems, and in addition, the new lake ecosystem can be damaged by several processes. Thus, the benefits of a reservoir, including energy production and flood control, must be measured against their impact on nature. New investigations point out that shallow and tropical reservoirs have high emission rates of the greenhouse gases CO₂ and CH₄. The methane emissions contribute strongly to climate change because CH₄ has a 25 times higher global warming potential than CO₂. The pathways for its production include ebullition, diffuse emission via the water‐air interface, and degassing in turbines and downstream of the reservoir in the spillway and the initial river stretch. Greenhouse gas emissions are promoted by a eutrophic state of the reservoir, and, with higher trophic levels, anaerobic conditions occur with the emission of CH₄. This means that a qualitative and quantitative jump in greenhouse gas emissions takes place. Available data from Petit Saut, French Guinea, provides a first quantification of these pathways. A simple evaluation of the global warming potential of a reservoir can be undertaken using the energy density, the ratio of the reservoir surface and the hydropower capacity; this parameter is mainly determined by the reservoir's morphometry but not by the hydropower capacity. Energy densities of some reservoirs are given and it is clearly seen that some reservoirs have a global warming potential higher than that of coal use for energy production.     

Scenario analysis on the global carbon emissions reduction goal proposed in the declaration of the 2009 G8 Summit

A goal of a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gases emissions by 2050, with an 80% reduction by developed countries (hereafter referred to as the G8 Goal), was proposed at the G8 Summit held in L’Aquila, Italy, in July 2009. Here we analyze the scientific and political implications of the G8 Goal and its equity and feasibility by examining four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our results show that (1) the goal to keep atmospheric CO₂ concentration of <450 ppmv, stated by G8 nations, can only be achieved under the scenario of a steady, linear emissions reduction by all countries and simultaneously meeting the G8 Goal during the period 2005–2050; (2) under the G8 Goal, the carbon emissions quota for developing countries would not meet their carbon emission demands even if very strict reduction regimes are followed, with a gap of up to >1/3 of emissions demand in the next 45 years; and (3) under the G8 Goal, the cumulative per capita emissions during the period of 2006–2050 for developed and developing countries will be 81 t C and 40–47 t C, respectively, with the former doubling that of the latter, implying that the historical disparity of carbon emissions between developed and developing countries would be widened. Historically, the cumulative per capita emissions from developed countries are 12 times of those from developing countries. We therefore conclude that (1) the G8 Goal seeks to impose binding reduction targets on developing countries that will impede their industrialization process and cause conflicts among developing countries in the allocation of carbon emission rights; (2) the G8 Goal will not only widen the existing disparities of historical carbon emissions between developed and developing countries, but also generate new inequalities in the rights of carbon emissions; and (3) the 450 ppmv threshold of atmospheric CO₂ concentration control, which is the basis for the G8 Goal, is impractical and impossible, and should not be accepted as the foundation for international climate negotiation on carbon emission reduction. In summary, the G8 Goal is clearly against the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” and thus is unacceptable for developing countries.     

Ecosystem scale evapotranspiration and net CO2 exchange from a restored peatland

An understanding of the symbiotic water and gas exchange processes at the ecosystem scale is essential to the development of appropriate restoration plans of extracted peatlands. This paper presents ecosystem scale measurements of the atmospheric exchange of water and carbon dioxide (CO₂) from a restored vacuum extracted peatland in eastern Québec, utilizing full‐scale micrometeorological measurements of both evaporation and CO₂. The results indicate that the adopted restoration practices reduce the loss of water from the peat, but CO₂ emissions are ～25% greater than an adjacent nonrestored comparison site. The blockage of drainage ditches and the existence of a mulch cover at the site keep the moisture conditions more or less constant. Consequently, the CO₂ flux, which is predominantly soil respiration, is strongly controlled by peat temperature fluctuations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Capture by Amine‐Functionalized Multi‐Walled Carbon Nanotube

In this study, crude multi‐walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) was functionalized by a two‐step process; first using strong mixed acids (H₂SO₄/HNO₃) and then treatment with 1,3‐phenylenediamine (mPDA). The equilibrium adsorption of CO₂ on pristine MWCNT and amine functionalized MWCNT (MWCNT‐NH₂) were investigated. Experiments were preformed via application of volumetric method in a dual sorption vessel at temperature range of 298–318 K and pressures up to 40 bars. The results obtained indicated that the equilibrium uptake of CO₂ increased after functionalizing of MWCNT. The increase in CO₂ capture by MWCNT‐NH₂ was attributed to the existence of great affinity between CO₂ molecules and amine sites on this adsorbent at low pressures. The experimental data were analyzed by means of Freundlich and Langmuir adsorption isotherm models. The data obtained revealed a fast kinetics for the adsorption of CO₂ in which most of adsorption occurred at initial period of adsorption experiments. This renders MWCNT as a suitable adsorbent for practical applications. Values of isosteric heat of adsorption were evaluated based on Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The results demonstrated that both chemisorption and physisorption played important role in CO₂ adsorption on MWCNT‐NH₂, whereas the physisorption process was dominant for CO₂ adsorption on MWCNT.     

Effects of soil compaction,rain exposure and their interaction on soil carbon dioxide emission

Soils release more carbon, primarily as carbon dioxide (CO₂), per annum than current global anthropogenic emissions. Soils emit CO₂ through mineralization and decomposition of organic matter and respiration of roots and soil organisms. Given this, the evaluation of the effects of abiotic factors on microbial activity is of major importance when considering the mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions. Previous studies demonstrate that soil CO₂ emission is significantly affected by temperature and soil water content. A limited number of studies have illustrated the importance of bulk density and soil surface characteristics as a result of exposure to rain on CO₂ emission, however, none examine their relative importance. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of soil compaction and exposure of the soil surface to rainfall and their interaction on CO₂ release. We conducted a factorial laboratory experiment with three soil types after sieving (clay, silt and sand soil), three different bulk densities (1·1 g cm^–3, 1·3 g cm^–3, 1·5 g cm^–3) and three different exposures to rainfall (no rain, 30 minutes and 90 minutes of rainfall). The results demonstrated CO₂ release varied significantly with bulk density, exposure to rain and time. The relationship between rain exposure and CO₂ is positive: CO₂ emission was 53% and 42% greater for the 90 minutes and 30 minutes rainfall exposure, respectively, compared to those not exposed to rain. Bulk density exhibited a negative relationship with CO₂ emission: soil compacted to a bulk density of 1·1 g cm^–3 emitted 32% more CO₂ than soil compacted to 1·5 g cm^–3. Furthermore we found that the magnitude of CO₂ effluxes depended on the interaction of these two abiotic factors. Given these results, understanding the influence of soil compaction and raindrop impact on CO₂ emission could lead to modified soil management practices which promote carbon sequestration. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CO2 Capture and Geologic Storage: The Possibilities

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and geologic storage has been postulated as one possible method to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ by injecting and storing it in deep geologic formations. This issue paper analyzes the viability of capture and geologic storage of becoming an effective method to aid in stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CO₂. It is herein shown that such viability is contingent on overcoming major obstacles that are hydrogeological, technical, and economic in nature. Our analysis indicates that capture and geologic storage is likely to have negligible success in reducing the atmospheric buildup of CO₂ in the coming decades. The magnitude of the anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ indicates that a transition of the world economy away from reliance on fossil fuels might be the only path to stabilize its atmospheric concentration.     

河流水-气界面CO2脱气时间尺度变化研究进展

河流作为连接陆地和海洋碳库之间的通道,是全球内陆水体碳排放最主要的载体,在全球碳循环中发挥着至关重要的作用。全球河流水-气界面二氧化碳（CO₂）脱气显著的时间异质性特征研究有助于深入理解其碳循环过程与机制,也为准确评估碳通量以及完善碳循环模型提供了科学支撑。本文系统梳理了国内外的相关研究成果,总结了目前河流CO₂脱气通量在昼夜、季节以及多年尺度上的动态变化及其影响因素,指出其昼夜变化与季节变化存在一定的周期性,并对不同空间尺度上CO₂脱气通量的时间差异进行讨论。同时分析当前研究中的不足,认为缺乏河流二氧化碳分压（pCO₂）与CO₂脱气系数（k）高分辨率且长期连续的直接测量,限制了河流CO₂脱气通量时间尺度变化的周期性及相互之间关系的厘定,使得气候变化与人类活动对河流CO₂脱气时间动态的影响仍然难以量化与预测。最后,根据目前存在的问题,展望了未来的研究重点,为全球河流水-气界面碳循环过程与机制、模型研究提供新的思路与方向,以及可以更准确地评估和预测未来河流碳排放的变化趋势。     

Variations in dissolved CO2 and CH4 in a first‐order stream and catchment: an investigation of soil–stream linkages

Spatial and seasonal variations in CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations in streamwater and adjacent soils were studied at three sites on Brocky Burn, a headwater stream draining a peatland catchment in upland Britain. Concentrations of both gases in the soil atmosphere were significantly higher in peat and riparian soils than in mineral soils. Peat and riparian soil CO₂ concentrations varied seasonally, showing a positive correlation with air and soil temperature. Streamwater CO₂ concentrations at the upper sampling site, which mostly drained deep peats, varied from 2·8 to 9·8 mg l^?1 (2·5 to 11·9 times atmospheric saturation) and decreased markedly downstream. Temperature‐related seasonal variations in peat and riparian soil CO₂ were reflected in the stream at the upper site, where 77% of biweekly variation was explained by an autoregressive model based on: (i) a negative log‐linear relationship with stream flow; (ii) a positive linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow riparian wells; and (iii) a negative linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow peat wells, with a significant 2‐week lag term. These relationships changed markedly downstream, with an apparent decrease in the soil–stream linkage and a switch to a positive relationship between stream flow and stream CO₂. Streamwater CH₄ concentrations also declined sharply downstream, but were much lower (<0·01 to 0·12 mg l^?1) than those of CO₂ and showed no seasonal variation, nor any relationship with soil atmospheric CH₄ concentrations. However, stream CH₄ was significantly correlated with stream flow at the upper site, which explained 57% of biweekly variations in dissolved concentrations. We conclude that stream CO₂ can be a useful integrative measure of whole catchment respiration, but only at sites where the soil–stream linkage is strong. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡水库CO2、CH4通量监测分析研究

自成库以来,三峡水库CO₂、CH₄等温室气体通量较蓄水前发生明显改变。如何科学认识和客观评估三峡水库修建及运行对其CO₂、CH₄等温室气体通量的影响备受关注。本文简要回顾了自2009年以来在三峡水库开展CO₂、CH₄等温室气体通量监测与分析工作,综述认为,现阶段三峡水库温室气体排放以水-气界面扩散释放为主要途径。陆源输入的有机碳是主导三峡水库CO₂、CH₄产生的主要碳源,但在局部区段或时段自源性有机碳的贡献亦十分显著。同蓄水前相比,三峡水库碳排放量呈现为净增加,淹没效应约占水库C净增量的20%,库区内点面源污染负荷并未对CO₂排放的净增量产生显著贡献,阻隔效应和生态系统重建效应对三峡水库碳排放的净增量产生显著贡献。近10年来,监测方法比对、监测点位优化等工作在一定程度上完善了三峡水库温室气体通量监测体系。新方法、新技术的引入也为三峡水库温室气体通量监测分析提供了有利支撑和保障,但复杂水文环境...     

CO2 storage in the high Arctic: efficient modelling of pre‐stack depth‐migrated seismic sections for survey planning

The sequestration of CO₂ in subsurface reservoirs constitutes an immediate counter‐measure to reduce anthropogenic emissions of CO₂, now recognized by international scientific panels to be the single most critical factor driving the observed global climatic warming. To ensure and verify the safe geological containment of CO₂ underground, monitoring of the CO₂ site is critical. In the high Arctic, environmental considerations are paramount and human impact through, for instance, active seismic surveys, has to be minimized. Efficient seismic modelling is a powerful tool to test the detectability and imaging capability prior to acquisition and thus improve the characterization of CO₂ storage sites, taking both geological setting and seismic acquisition set‐up into account. The unique method presented here avoids the costly generation of large synthetic data sets by employing point spread functions to directly generate pre‐stack depth‐migrated seismic images. We test both a local‐target approach using an analytical filter assuming an average velocity and a full‐field approach accounting for the spatial variability of point spread functions. We assume a hypothetical CO₂ plume emplaced in a sloping aquifer inspired by the conditions found at the University of Svalbard CO₂ lab close to Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, constituting an unconventional reservoir–cap rock system. Using the local‐target approach, we find that even the low‐to‐moderate values of porosity (5%–18%) measured in the reservoir should be sufficient to induce significant change in seismic response when CO₂ is injected. The sensitivity of the seismic response to changes in CO₂ saturation, however, is limited once a relatively low saturation threshold of 5% is exceeded. Depending on the illumination angle provided by the seismic survey, the quality of the images of five hypothetical CO₂ plumes of varying volume differs depending on the steepness of their flanks. When comparing the resolution of two orthogonal 2D surveys to a 3D survey, we discover that the images of the 2D surveys contain significant artefacts, the CO₂‐brine contact is misplaced and an additional reflector is introduced due to the projection of the point spread function of the unresolvable plane onto the imaging plane. All of these could easily lead to a misinterpretation of the behaviour of the injected CO₂. Our workflow allows for testing the influence of geological heterogeneities in the target aquifer (igneous intrusions, faults, pervasive fracture networks) by utilizing increasingly complex and more realistic geological models as input as more information on the subsurface becomes available.     

CO2 absorption of sandy soil induced by rainfall pulses in a desert ecosystem

Soil CO₂ flux is strongly influenced by precipitation in many ecosystem types, yet knowledge of the effects of precipitation on soil CO₂ flux in semi‐arid desert ecosystems remains insufficient, particularly for sandy soils. To address this, we investigated the response of sandy soil CO₂ flux to rainfall pulses in a desert ecosystem in northern China during August–September 2011. Significant changes (P < 0.05) were found in diel patterns of soil CO₂ flux induced by small (2.1 mm), moderate (12.4 mm) and large (19.7 mm) precipitation events. Further analysis indicated that rainfall pulses modified the response of soil CO₂ flux to soil temperature, including hysteresis between soil CO₂ flux and soil temperature, with F_s higher when T_s was increasing than when T_s was decreasing, and the linear relationship between them. Moreover, our results showed that rainfall could result in absorption of atmospheric CO₂ by soil, possibly owing to mass flow of CO₂ induced by a gradient of gas pressure between atmosphere and soil. After each precipitation event, soil CO₂ flux recovered exponentially to pre‐rainfall levels with time, with the recovery times exhibiting a positive correlation with precipitation amount. On the basis of the amounts of precipitation that occurred at our site during the measurement period (August–September), the accumulated rain‐induced carbon absorption evaluated for rainy days was 1.068 g C m^?2; this corresponds approximately to 0.5–2.1% of the net primary production of a typical desert ecosystem. Thus, our results suggest that rainfall pulses can strongly influence carbon fluxes in desert ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do emissions and income have a common trend? A country-specific,time-series,global analysis, 1970–2008

This paper analyzes the relation between income and emissions in the period 1970–2008, for all world countries. We consider time-series of CO₂, SO₂ and GWP100, and use Vector Autoregressive models that allow for nonstationarity and cointegration. At 5 % significance level, income and emissions are found to be driven by unrelated random walks with drift (respectively by a common random walk with drift) in about 70 % (respectively 25 %) of cases; in the remaining cases the variables are trend-stationary. Tests of Granger-causality show evidence of both directions of causality. For the case of unrelated stochastic trends, we almost never find income driving emissions, as predicted by a consumption-function interpretation. These causality results and the absence of a common trend challenge the main implications of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, namely that the dominant direction of causality should be from income to emissions, and that for increasing levels of income, emissions should tend to decrease.     

On the accumulative contribution of CO2 emission from China to global climate change

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China’s CO₂ emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China’s CO₂ emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China’s CO₂ emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries’ CO₂ emission and other countries’ CO₂ emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO₂ discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO₂ emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO₂ emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to 91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China’s CO₂ emission as an example, the contribution of CO₂ emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.     

A CO2-rich gas trigger of explosive paroxysms at Stromboli basaltic volcano,Italy

In addition to rhythmic slug-driven Strombolian activity, Stromboli volcano occasionally produces discrete explosive paroxysms (2 per year on average for the most frequent ones) that constitute a major hazard and whose origin remains poorly elucidated. Partial extrusion of the volatile-rich feeding basalt as aphyric pumice during these events has led to consider their triggering by the fast ascent of primitive magma blobs from possibly great depth. Here I examine and discuss the alternative hypothesis that most of the paroxysms could be triggered and driven by the fast upraise of CO₂-rich gas pockets generated by bubble foam growth and collapse in the sub-volcano plumbing system. Data for the SO₂ and CO₂ crater plume emissions are used to show that Stromboli's feeding magma may originally contain as much as 2 wt.% of carbon dioxide and early coexists with an abundant CO₂-rich gas phase with high CO₂/SO₂ molar ratio (≥ 60 at 10 km depth below the vents, compared to ～ 7 in time-averaged crater emissions). Pressure-related modelling indicates that the time-averaged crater gas composition and output are well accounted for by closed system decompression of the basalt–gas mixture until the volcano–crust interface (～ 3 km depth), followed by open degassing and crystallization in the volcano conduits. However, both the low viscosity and high vesicularity of the basaltic magma permit bubble segregation and bubble foam growth at deep sill-like feeder discontinuities and at shallower physical boundaries (such as the volcano–crust interface) where the gas-rich aphyric basalt interacts with the unerupted crystal-rich and viscous magma drained back from the volcano conduits. Gas pressure build-up and bubble foam collapse at these boundaries will intermittently trigger the sudden upraise of CO₂-rich gas blobs that constitute the main driving force of the paroxysms. Deeper-sourced gas blobs, driving the most powerful explosions, will be the richest in CO₂ and have highest CO₂/SO₂ ratios. This mechanism is shown to account well for the dynamic, seismic and petrologic features of Stromboli's paroxysms and, hence, to provide a potential alternative interpretation for their genesis and their forecasting. Enhanced bubble foam leakage prior to a paroxysm, or foam emptying in several steps, should lead indeed to precursory upstream of CO₂-rich gas and increasing CO₂/SO₂ ratio in crater plume emissions. The recent detection of such signals prior to two explosions in December 2006 and March 2007 strongly supports this expectation and the model proposed in this study.     

The first post‐injection seismic monitor survey at the Ketzin pilot CO2 storage site: results from time‐lapse analysis

The injection of CO₂ at the Ketzin pilot CO₂ storage site started in June 2008 and ended in August 2013. During the 62 months of injection, a total amount of about 67 kt of CO₂ was injected into a saline aquifer. A third repeat three‐dimensional seismic survey, serving as the first post‐injection survey, was acquired in 2015, aiming to investigate the recent movement of the injected CO₂. Consistent with the previous two time‐lapse surveys, a predominantly west–northwest migration of the gaseous CO₂ plume in the up‐dip direction within the reservoir is inferred in this first post‐injection survey. No systematic anomalies are detected through the reservoir overburden. The extent of the CO₂ plume west of the injection site is almost identical to that found in the 2012 second repeat survey (after injection of 61 kt); however, there is a significant decrease in its size east of the injection site. Assessment of the CO₂ plume distribution suggests that the decrease in the size of the anomaly may be due to multiple factors, such as limited vertical resolution, CO₂ dissolution, and CO₂ migration into thin layers, in addition to the effects of ambient noise. Four‐dimensional seismic modelling based on dynamic flow simulations indicates that a dynamic balance between the newly injected CO₂ after the second repeat survey and the CO₂ migrating into thin layers and being dissolved was reached by the time of the first post‐injection survey. In view of the significant uncertainties in CO₂ mass estimation, both patchy and non‐patchy saturation models for the Ketzin site were taken into consideration.