Evaluation of multidecadal and longer-term temperature changes since 850 CE based on Northern Hemisphere proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations

The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however, their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison. Here, we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH) at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(30 years) by evaluating their covariance, climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes. We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE, due to their similar long-term temporal patterns. However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time, becoming particularly small during Medieval times. This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental periods.Reconstructions based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models. Meanwhile, climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e., lag) in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima, implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models. Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions. We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE) is generally larger in proxybased reconstructions than in model simulations, but the reason is unclear.     

Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean

Many of the world’s coral reefs suffered high coral mortality during the 1998 ENSO, with the highest mortality in the western Indian Ocean (WIO). A meta-analysis of field data on change in coral cover across the 1998 ENSO event was conducted for 36 major reef areas in the WIO, and relationship of the change with the historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability investigated. WIO reefs were categorized into three major SST groups of differing coral cover change. Cover change was negatively associated with standard deviation (SD) SST until about SD 2.3, with increasing flatness of the SST frequency distributions. It increased with further increase in SD as the SST distributions became strongly bimodal in the Arabian/Persian Gulf area. The study indicates that environmental resistance/tolerance to extreme anomalous events could be predicted and management priorities directed accordingly for a warmer and more variable future climate.     

El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki variability based on a new ocean reanalysis

A new ocean reanalysis, covering the period from 1990 to 2009, is evaluated against observational sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) data in reproducing the temporal characteristics of El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki. The new reanalysis assimilates the available SST, temperature–salinity profile, and satellite altimetry data sets into a global ocean model forced with surface boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction atmospheric reanalysis 2. Using the Ni?o 3 index and the improved El Ni?o Modoki index, to distinguish between El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki signals, our results show that the two time series in the new reanalysis are in agreement with those obtained from observations during the study period. A composite analysis method is used to demonstrate the temporal evolution of these two types of El Ni?o. The new reanalysis has the advantage of representing the strength and location of El Ni?o events better than the control run, with an increase in the spatial correlation, but El Ni?o variability in the reanalysis is weak in the eastern Pacific, particularly off the coast of South America. As for the El Ni?o Modoki events, the initiation, development, and termination of the warm SST anomalies all occur in the central Pacific. All main features associated with the warm SST anomaly pattern of El Ni?o Modoki are well represented in the reanalysis. Furthermore, using this new ocean reanalysis, we select two strong cases to investigate possible mechanisms that may lead to the different warm SST anomaly patterns.     

Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977–1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5–1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982–1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean–atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian–Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by 1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.     

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode recorded in coral oxygen isotope data from the Seychelles over the past 148 years

The tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) displays a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in sea surface temperature(SST) during the decay year of El Niδo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. This warming or cooling is called the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM). Recent studies showed that the IOBM dominates the interannual variability of the TIO SST and has impacts on the tropical climate from the TIO to the western Pacific. Analyses on a 148-year-long monthly coral δ 18 O record from the Seychelles Islands demonstrate that the Seychelles coral δ 18 O not only is associated with the local SST but also indicates the interannul variability of the basin-wide SST in the TIO. Moreover, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O shows a dominant period of 3–7 years that well represents the variability of the IOBM, which in return is modulated by the inter-decadal climate variability. The correlation between the Seychelles coral δ 18 O and the SST reveals that the coral δ 18 O lags the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific by five months and reaches its peak in the spring following the mature phase of ENSO. The spatial pattern of the first EOF mode indicates that the Seychelles Islands are located at the crucial place of the IOBM. Thus, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O could be used as a proxy of the IOBM to investigate the ENSO teleconnection on the TIO in terms of long-time climate variability.     

Trends and anomalies in sea-surface temperature,observed over the last 60 years,within the southeastern Bay of Biscay

The Oceanographic Society of Gipuzkoa has recorded daily sea-surface temperature (SST) measurements, since 2nd July 1946, on a (nearly) daily basis. Sixty years of SST measurements (1947–2007) have been considered, in order to analyse the hydrographic trends and anomalies at the southeastern Bay of Biscay. The study reviews initially the consistency and reliability of the time-series; and trends and anomaly patterns. Then, the periodicity of the series; a reference period, for analysing seasonality during the period 2001–2007; and oceano-meteorological coupling within the period 2001–2007, with reference to the baseline period, have been determined. Within this context, a slight cooling trend has been observed for the whole of the time-series, in contrast to the warming over the last three-decadal period. Regarding the periodicity of the series, several cycles have been identified, with periods of about 8, 11 and 18 years; these represent the influence of climate cycles over the (local) SST series. Additionally, seasonal anomaly patterns between 2001 and 2007 have been examined based upon the selected reference period (1980–2002). Several extreme seasonal events have been observed, such as warm summer SST values in 2003 and 2006 and cold winter values in 2005. Such events can be explained by the “deseasonality” phenomenon, observed throughout the study period. In addition to the direct influence of atmospherical parameters, such as air temperature and irradiance on SST, dynamical variables (turbulence and upwelling–downwelling) account also for this coupling. Overall, despite the marginal location and surface character of the time-series, it reveals anomalies that agree with those described for larger zones of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean; hence, it can be characterised as being a reliable and representative long-term SST series.     

Narrative warm/cold variations in continental western Europe, AD 708 -1426

An extended narrative dataset of the Medieval time AD 708-1426 in continental western Europe was set up. Some 30-year-moving mean seasonal temperature deviation series were reconstructed. A- warming trend occurred around AD 1200. During the warm stage, seasonal cycle might be weak due to frequent cool summers. Significant warm summer conditions did not occur until the late 14th century, when the annual temperature level began decreasing. The mean warm season temperature level during the late 14th to the early 15th century might be about 0.3°C higher than the present. It was suggested to cautiously comment on historical climates for different seasons.     

基于遗传算法优化的ENSO指数的动力预报模型反演

基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958～1995年全球月平均海温距平场再分析资料,采用动力系统反演思想和遗传算法途径,进行了El Nino/La Nina指数的动力预报模型的参数优化和模型反演,从上述海温资料中重构了Nino3海温距平指数的非线性动力模型.模型预报试验结果表明,遗传算法具有的全局搜索和并行计算优势能够客观、有效地反演海温指数的动力预报模型,对Nino3海温指数和El Nino/La Nina事件进行较为客观准确的预测,为El Nino/La Nina预测提供有益的研究参考.     

Utility of the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set (HadISST1) in two widely contrasting coral reef areas

The HadISST1 sea surface temperature data set is examined for two contrasting areas: the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean which has a small (approximately 3 degrees C) annual temperature fluctuation, and Abu Dhabi in the southern Arabian Gulf whose annual air temperature fluctuation of approximately 24 degrees C is the largest known for coral reef habitats. The HadISST1 data are shown to match air temperature records closely, both in terms of annual moving averages and residual analysis. Temperatures in 1998 caused massive mortality of corals in the Indian Ocean: sea surface temperature (SST) values causing this were 33.8 degrees C in the Arabian Gulf at a time when average daily air temperature was over 40 degrees C, while in Chagos the SST lethal to corals was 29.8-29.9 degrees C, when air temperatures peaked at about 31 degrees C. The HadISST1 record was searched back to 1870 for previous abnormal peaks: one of 29.7 degrees C was found for Chagos SST in 1972, though this did not cause coral mortality. Analysis of 12-month running means of the residuals from the annual cycle show that, between 1870 and 1999, the largest SST deviations occurred between October 1997 and May 1998 in Chagos and between August 1998 and July 1999 near Abu Dhabi. The event of 1998-1999 was the largest in these regions for at least 130 years. SSTs have risen over the last three decades at rates of about 0.22 degrees or 0.23 degrees per decade in both locations.     

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 14 cells around the United Kingdom

Monthly sea surface temperature is provided for 14 locations around the UK for a 230 year period. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Two adjustments of the forecast data sets are needed to produce confluent SST series: the 50 year overlap is used for a gross adjustment, and a statistical scaling on the forecast data ensures that annual variations in forecast data match those of historical data. These monthly SST series are available on request. The overall rise in SST over time is clear for all sites, commencing in the last quarter of the 20th century. Apart from expected trends of overall warmer mean SST with more southerly latitudes and overall cooler mean SST towards the East, more interesting statistically significant general trends include a greater decadal rate of rise from warmer starting conditions. Annual temperature variation is not affected by absolute temperature, but is markedly greater towards the East. There is no correlation of annual range of SST with latitude, or with present SST values.     

Coral bleaching and mortality on artificial and natural reefs in Maldives in 1998, sea surface temperature anomalies and initial recovery

The bleaching and subsequent mortality of branching and massive corals on artificial and natural reefs in the central atolls of Maldives in 1998 are examined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. SST normally peaks in April-May in Maldives. The UK Meteorological Office's Global sea-Ice and SST data set version 2.3 b shows that in 1998 monthly mean SST was 1.2-4 S.D. above the 1950-1999 average during the warmest months (March-June), with the greatest anomaly in May of +2.1 degrees C. Bleaching was first reported in mid-April and was severe from late April to mid-May with some recovery evident by late-May. At least 98% of branching corals (Acroporidae, Pocilloporidae) on artificial structures deployed on a reef flat in 1990 died whereas the majority of massive corals (Poritidae, Faviidae, Agariciidae) survived the bleaching. The pre-bleaching coral community on the artificial reefs in 1994 was 95% branching corals and 5% massives (n = 1589); the post-bleaching community was 3% branching corals and 97% massives (n = 248). Significant reductions in live coral cover were seen at all natural reefs surveyed in the central atolls, with average live coral cover decreasing from about 42% to 2%, a 20-fold reduction from pre-bleaching levels. A survey of recruitment of juvenile corals to the artificial structures 10 months after the bleaching event showed that 67% of recruits (> or = 0.5 cm diameter) were acroporids and pocilloporids and 33% were from massive families (n = 202) compared to 94% and 6%, respectively, in 1990-1994 (n = 3136). Similar post-bleaching dominance of recruitment by branching corals was seen on nearby natural reef (78% acroporids and pocilloporids; 22% massives). A linear regression of April mean monthly SST against year was highly significant (p < 0.001) and suggests a rise of 0.16 degree C per decade. If this trend continues, by 2030 mean April SST in the central atolls will normally exceed the anomaly level at which corals appear there are susceptible to mass bleaching.     

Response of arid northeast Mexico to global climate changes during the late Pleistocene to the middle Holocene

Anthropogenic global warming might cause expansion of the drylands and trigger socio-economic challenges in the water-deficit subtropical regions. Changes in hydroclimate during the intervals of variable global temperature over the recent geological past, however, could provide useful information about the possible responses of these arid ecosystems to the near future warmer conditions. We evaluated hydroclimates of two different parts of subtropical North America by generating new records of surface processes and regional vegetation from drought-prone northeast Mexico and subsequently compared them with the paleoclimate of the central-southern United States. Our study suggests that congruent changes occurred in both parts during ~13.5–9.5 cal ka BP, an interval with no warm pool in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation and erosion responded to temperature-modulated variations in positions of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Conditions were wetter than today in the subsequent warmer interval (~9.5–8.2 cal ka BP) with generally stable ITCZ and the highest summer insolation. Hydroclimate changes of both parts lacked congruency during ~8.2–6.8 cal ka BP as the northern Gulf of Mexico began hosting a warm pool. Similar to the modern conditions, this warm pool might have modified trajectories of the tropical storms. Erosion and abundance of C₃ plants decreased in northeast Mexico. Higher wetness in the Mississippi River Basin and the southern Great Plains during this interval suggested that the storms made landfall more frequently in the central-southern United States. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coral bleaching indices and thresholds for the Florida Reef Tract, Bahamas, and St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

It is well established that elevated sea temperatures cause widespread coral bleaching, yet confusion lingers as to what facet of extreme temperatures is most important. Utilizing long-term in situ datasets, we calculated nine thermal stress indices and tested their effectiveness at segregating bleaching years a posteriori for multiple reefs on the Florida Reef Tract. The indices examined represent three aspects of thermal stress: (1) short-term, acute temperature stress; (2) cumulative temperature stress; and (3) temperature variability. Maximum monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and the number of days >30.5 °C were the most significant; indicating that cumulative exposure to temperature extremes characterized bleaching years. Bleaching thresholds were warmer for Florida than the Bahamas and St. Croix, US Virgin Islands reflecting differences in seasonal maximum SST. Hind-casts showed that monthly mean SST above a local threshold explained all bleaching years in Florida, the Bahamas, and US Virgin Islands.     

南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响

印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature，简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡，并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关，在冬、春达到最大，并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响，对应偶极子正位相，次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱；副高加强且南撤、西伸，南亚高压偏强且位置偏东，易形成我国长江流域降水偏多，华南降水偏少；负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio Southern Oscillation，简称ENSO）的特征.     

Processes involved in the second-year warming of the 2015 El Nio event as derived from an intermediate ocean model

The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nio event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nio event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves(as indicated in sea level(SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nio event are consistent with current El Nio and Southern Oscillation theories.     

Heat transport variation due to change of North Pacific subtropical gyre interior flow during 1993–2012

Applying segment-wise altimetry-based gravest empirical mode method to expendable bathythermograph temperature, Argo salinity, and altimetric sea surface height data in March, June, and November from San Francisco to near Japan (30^° N, 145^° E) via Honolulu, we estimated the component of the heat transport variation caused by change in the southward interior geostrophic flow of the North Pacific subtropical gyre in the top 700 m layer during 1993–2012. The volume transport-weighted temperature (T_I) is strongly dependent on the season. The anomaly of T_I from the mean seasonal variation, whose standard deviation is 0.14^°C, was revealed to be caused mainly by change in the volume transport in a potential density layer of 25.0?25.5σ_??. The anomaly of T_I was observed to vary on a decadal or shorter, i.e., quasi-decadal (QD), timescale. The QD-scale variation of T_I had peaks in 1998 and 2007, equivalent to the reduction in the net heat transport by 6 and 10 TW, respectively, approximately 1 year before those of sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool region, east of the Philippines. This suggests that variation in T_I affects the warm pool SST through modification of the heat balance owing to the entrainment of southward transported water into the mixed layer.     

TOGA-COARE IOP期间的海气通量观测结果

在TOGA－COAREIOP期间用涡度相关法对海气热通量进行了船载直接观测．对垂直风速、温度和湿度湍流脉动观测数据的谱分析显示它们在高频区基本满足"－2／3次方律"．对船体简谐震荡影响的讨论从理论上证明该影响在热通量计算中可被忽略．根据以此方法得到的通量求出了中性层结条件下感热和潜热的整体输送系数分别为2．25×10^－3和1．26×10^－3．对海气边界层特性的分析表明该海域的近海层主要呈中性或弱不稳定层结．海气通量的变化与背景环流形势密切相关,潜热通量主要受海面风场强度的影响,而感热通量变化除了风场的影响外,层结变化也是一个重要因素．用整体输送法计算TOGA－COAREIOP期间以及TOGA期间8个航次的通量结果而得到的Bowen比约为0．1,显示潜热通量是暖池大气的主要热源．     

A Comparison Study Between Spring and Summer Fogs in the Yellow Sea-Observations and Mechanisms

New observations from buoys and soundings reveal the discrepancies in air–sea interface and in vertical structures between spring (April to May) and summer (July) fogs in the Yellow Sea. Spring fogs are shallow with a robust temperature inversion, dry layer and cold phase (surface air temperature or SAT is lower than sea surface temperature or SST); summer fogs are deep with weaker stability, indistinct fog top and warm phase (SAT?>?SST). Along with numerical simulations, conceptual models for the mechanisms of temperature inversion are suggested. The land–sea contrast is responsible for the robust temperature inversion in spring, and the deep southerlies derived from the east Asian summer monsoon and the adiabatic sinking from the western Pacific subtropical high contributes to the weaker inversion in summer. The dry layer above the sea fog top intensifies the longwave radiative cooling effect to lead to the cold phase in spring fogs. The radiative cooling is weaker in summer fogs resulting in SAT?>?SST.     

城市化对北京气象站极端气温指数趋势变化的影响

利用5个乡村气象站和北京气象站(简称北京站)1960～2008年日最高、最低气温资料,比较分析了北京地区城市和乡村极端气温指数年、季节的时间变化以及城市化对北京站各极端气温指数趋势变化的影响.结果表明:1960～2008年北京站霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数和平均日较差均显著减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数、平均最高气温和平均最...     

Requirement of water-flow for sustainable growth of Pocilloporid corals during high temperature periods

Reef-building corals are threatened worldwide by mass-scale coral bleaching episodes that are pronounced in high sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. Although water-flow has been suggested to be a mitigating factor for bleaching, long-term effects of flow-mediated bleaching suppression are as yet not fully understood. In order to investigate flow effects, we monitored the corals Pocillopora damicornis and Stylophora pistillata grown for 20 months in experimental outdoor flumes with the flow rates of 20 cms(-1) (flow) and <3 cms(-1) (still). Although bleaching was observed under high SST conditions, both species showed a shorter period or entirely no visible bleaching under the flow conditions. Better colony growth was found in the flow conditions whereas significant growth suppression and higher mortality were observed in still conditions. We conclude that water-flow is an essential environmental factor for the corals P. damicornis and S. pistillata, especially under high SST conditions.