Determination of intersection points within a telescopic alluvial fan complex

Delimitation of a single fan component within an alluvial fan complex system is facilitated by observing contour offsets on topographic maps which indicate the position of the intersection point. Two different types of intersection points are discussed. Israeli topographic sheets of the Dead Sea area provide examples.     

Controls on valley spacing in landscapes subject to rapid base‐level fall

What controls the architecture of drainage networks is a fundamental question in geomorphology. Recent work has elucidated the mechanisms of drainage network development in steadily uplifting landscapes, but the controls on drainage‐network morphology in transient landscapes are relatively unknown. In this paper we exploit natural experiments in drainage network development in incised Plio‐Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces in order to understand and quantify drainage network development in highly transient landscapes, i.e. initially unincised low‐relief surfaces that experience a pulse of rapid base‐level drop followed by relative base‐level stasis. Parallel drainage networks formed on incised alluvial‐fan surfaces tend to have a drainage spacing that is approximately proportional to the magnitude of the base‐level drop. Numerical experiments suggest that this observed relationship between the magnitude of base‐level drop and mean drainage spacing is the result of feedbacks among the depth of valley incision, mass wasting and nonlinear increases in the rate of colluvial sediment transport with slope gradient on steep valley side slopes that lead to increasingly wide valleys in cases of larger base‐level drop. We identify a threshold magnitude of base‐level drop above which side slopes lengthen sufficiently to promote increases in contributing area and fluvial incision rates that lead to branching and encourage drainage networks to transition from systems of first‐order valleys to systems of higher‐order, branching valleys. The headward growth of these branching tributaries prevents the development of adjacent, ephemeral drainages and promotes a higher mean valley spacing relative to cases in which tributaries do not form. Model results offer additional insights into the response of initially unincised landscapes to rapid base‐level drop and provide a preliminary basis for understanding how varying amounts of base‐level change influence valley network morphology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depositional process and alluvial fan-drainage basin morphometric relationships near banff,Alberta, Canada

Two distinct types of alluvial fans occur in the Bow River Valley, Alberta, Canada: fluvially dominated and debris flow dominated. Large, gently sloping fans dominated by fluvial processes are associated with large and less rugged drainage basins, and small rugged basins have produced small, steep fans dominated by debris flow processes. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that strong fan-basin morphometric relationships occur despite a short fan history. Statistical analysis of fan area-basin area relationships indicate that debris flow fan areas do not increase in size as quickly as contributing basins. The relationship of fluvial fan area to basin area is not statistically significant. However, this relationship is probably affected by fan erosion. Examination of fan slope to basin ruggedness relationships indicates that fan slope increases more rapidly than basin ruggedness for both fan types. This is likely related to non-linear discharge and sediment size effects on fluvial fans, and reworking of larger fan surfaces by fluvial processes on debris flow fans.     

Catchment lithology as a major control on alluvial megafan development,Kohrud Mountain range,central Iran

The relative importance of tectonics, climate, base level and source lithology as primary factors on alluvial‐fan evolution, fan morphology and sedimentary style remain in question. This study examines the role of catchment lithology on development and evolution of alluvial megafans (>30 km in length), along the flanks of the Kohrud Mountain range, NE Esfahan, central Iran. These fans toe out at axial basin river and playa‐fringe sediments towards the centre of basin and tectonics, climatic change and base‐level fluctuations, were consistent for their development. They formed in a tectonically active basin, under arid to semiarid climate and a long term (Plio‐Pleistocene to Recent) change from wetter to drier conditions. The key differences between two of these fans, Soh and Zefreh fans, along the west and south flanks of this mountain range, is that their catchments are underlain by dissimilar bedrock types. The source‐area lithologies of the Soh and Zefreh fans are in sedimentary and igneous terrains, respectively, and these fans developed their geometry mainly in response to different weathering intensities of their catchment bedrock lithologies. Fan surface mapping (based on 1/50000 topographic maps, satellite images, and fieldwork), reveals that the geomorphic evolution of these fans differs in that the relatively large‐scale incision and through trenching of the Soh fan is absent in the Zefreh fan. Whereas the limited sediment supply of the Soh fan has resulted in a deep incised channel, the Zefreh fan has remained aggradational with little or no trenching into proximal to medial fan surface due to its catchment bedrock geology, composed mainly by physically weathered volcaniclastic lithology and characterized by high sediment supply for delivery during episodic flash floods. Sediment supply, which is mainly a function of climate and source lithology, is a dominant driver behind the development of fan sequences in alluvial megafans. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN DEM-DERIVED TOPOGRAPHIC INDICES AND REMOTELY-SENSED VEGETATION COVER IN RANGELANDS

The paper describes an attempt to relate patterns of vegetation cover with topography and a set of biological and grazing intensity variables in a mountain and piedmont area of arid central Australia. Vegetation cover, as measured by an index based on data from the Landsat satellite, can also be used as an erosion/deposition surrogate so the results have implications for distributed erosion models. A simple, analytically based erosion model derived from the continuity equation does not reproduce observed patterns of vegetation cover, and neither do various topographically based moisture indices. A regression approach shows that patterns of vegetation cover are related to topography but the most important predictors are biological ones, with percentage of bare ground upslope being the strongest. Tests with variable drainage area show that relationships between cover and topography, bare area upslope and grazing effects change systematically with basin size and that scale effects are present. Distributed erosion models are not yet capable of handling biological processes very well, yet these processes must be incorporated if erosion prediction is to be successful.     

The coupling status of alluvial fans and debris cones: a review and synthesis

Alluvial fans and debris cones link two zones of the fluvial system (e.g. hillslope gully systems to stream channels; mountain catchment sediment source areas to main river systems or to sedimentary basins) and therefore have important coupling or buffering roles. These roles may be both functional and preservational. The functional role includes debris‐cone coupling, which controls sediment supply from hillslope gully systems to stream channels, influencing channel morphology. Coupling through larger alluvial fans, expressed by fanhead trenching, causes a distal shift in sedimentation zones, or when expressed by through‐fan trenching, causes complete sediment by‐pass. The preservational role stems from the fact that fans and cones are temporary sediment storage zones, and may preserve a record of source–area environmental change more sensitively than would sediments preserved further downsystem. Fan coupling mechanisms include distally‐induced coupling (basal scour, ‘toe cutting’, marginal incision) and proximally‐induced coupling (fanhead and midfan trenching). These mechanisms lead initially to partial coupling, either extending the immediate sediment source area to the stream system or shifting the focus of sedimentation distally. Complete coupling involves transmission of sediment from the feeder catchment through the fan environment into the downstream drainage or a sedimentary basin. The implications of coupling relate to downstream channel response, fan morphology, sedimentation patterns and vertical sedimentary sequences. Temporal and spatial scales of coupling are related, and with increasing scales the dominant controls shift from storm events to land cover to climatic and base‐level change and ultimately to the relationships between tectonics and accommodation space. Finally, future research challenges are identified. Modern dating techniques and sophisticated analysis of remotely sensed data can greatly improve our understanding of fan dynamics, and should lead to better cross‐scale integration between short‐term process‐based approaches and long‐term sedimentological applications, while maintaining high quality field‐based observations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological mapping from SPOT imagery

Four SPOT images, one panchromatic and three multispectral, were studied to evaluate their usefulness for hydrological mapping in an arid environment. Simple visual methods of interpretation were used to plot the drainage network independently from each test image. The results were compared with the drainage network shown on the topographic map of the area. Results show that with the panchromatic image, over 90 per cent of the map content could be discerned, identified, and plotted. The accuracy of plotting the drainage system from the multispectral images seems to depend on the season in which data had been acquired. However, in all cases, the success rate is not less than 70 per cent. Comparison with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery showed that SPOT system is superior in hydrological mapping.     

Influence of lithologic erodibility on alluvial fan area,western white mountains,California and Nevada

Differences in lithologic erodibility and sediment storage within a drainage basin affect the relationship between alluvial fan area and drainage basin area along the western White Mountains. Large fans are produced by basins underlain by resistant rocks, which have steep and narrow trunk stream canyons with little sediment in storage. Small fans are produced by basins composed of erodible lithologic units, which have wider valley floors, lower valley-side slopes, and considerably more sediment stored along trunk stream canyons than is the case in basins underlain by resistant rocks.     

Rapid incision of a small,coarse and steep fan‐delta in response to base‐level fall: the case of Nahal Qedem,the Dead Sea,Israel

The Dead Sea has been continuously dropping 0·4–1·0 m yr^?1 since the middle of the 20th century and thus provides a unique field laboratory for studying in real time the response of drainage systems to a non‐tectonic base‐level fall. The aim of this work is to study the short‐term ongoing erosive response to a rapid base‐level drop in a small, steep‐fronted, erodible fan‐delta setting. The work explores the controls of the steep Qedem fan‐delta, guided by its clinoform structure, on its incision. Longitudinal profiles of the fan‐delta and of its entrenched channel were measured in the field. Sedimentary facies changes – fluviatile, shallow lacustrine and beach – were followed along exposures. The existence of large boulders provided an opportunity to examine the uncertain role of armouring and boulder flux on incision. The field study was combined with digital elevation models (DEMs) that were extracted from pairs of overlapping aerial photos. Maps of erosion and deposition were prepared using a change detection algorithm. The longitudinal profile of the entrenched channel was found to be steep and linear. The outlet temporarily ‘hangs’ elevated and ungraded above the retreating lake level, indicating years without incision flow events, which cause lags in response to the rapid lake level drop. In spite of the large boulders, the small drainage basin and precipitation volume over the basin of the Qedem, the recorded vertical incision rates in the unconsolidated sediments are as high as 0·8 m yr^?1, i.e. similar to those of the largest wadis draining to the Dead Sea. The steep front of the fan‐delta is suggested to be a main factor controlling the efficient incision. A unique transport mechanism of rolling boulders, following undercutting, contributed to the entrenchment efficiency. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring new methods to analyse spatial impact distributions on debris-flow fans using data from south-western British Columbia

Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base maps, LiDAR data, orthophotos, and field observations. We devised a graphical method to convert our geospatial mapping into spatial impact heat maps normalized by fan boundaries, enabling comparison of runout distributions across different fans. About 90% of the mapped debris flows reached beyond the mid-points of fans, while less than 10% avulsed more than half-way across the fan relative to the previous flow path. Most avulsions initiated at distances of 20% to 40% of the maximum fan length from the fan apex and upstream of the fan intersection point. Large volume events tend to be more mobile in the down-fan direction, but the relation between volume and cross-fan runout (e.g., avulsions) is more complex. Differences in spatial impact distributions can be explained, in part, by the degree of fan incision and whether a fan is truncated at its toe by a river or lake. There were no significant differences in spatial impact distributions based on the geology of the source area, sediment supply condition, or hydrogeomorphic process classification.     

Evidence of transient topographic disequilibrium in a landward passive margin river system: knickpoints and paleo‐landscapes of the New River basin,southern Appalachians

The upper New River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains, a major tributary of the modern Ohio River, represents the unglaciated headwaters of the Tertiary Teays River system of eastern North America. Dating of relict fluvial gravels have suggested that New River incision may be outpacing lowering of the surrounding uplands, but physical evidence of transient topographic disequilibrium has yet to be identified. We use focused topographic analysis of the upper New River basin to delineate a perched, low‐relief paleo‐landscape that is experiencing transgressive dissection due to incision by the New River and its tributaries. Accelerated incision has decoupled hillslopes from the drainage network, generating knickpoints which represent the boundary between remnants of the paleo‐landscape and actively adjusting topography downstream. Steepening of hillslopes downstream of knickpoints suggests dynamic headward migration which, along with knickpoint occurrence throughout the drainage network, is inconsistent with the development of fixed stream profile convexities atop strike‐extensive geologic contacts. In the absence of tectonic forcing, we favor a climatically‐forced drop in external base level as driver of the incision pattern we observe. Plio‐Pleistocene glacial damming and diversion of the Teays River to form the modern Ohio River lowered regional base level for the study area, potentially forcing the paleo‐landscape developed during the Teays era to adjust to the modern drainage pattern. The upper New River may therefore represent the potential for glacially‐driven drainage rearrangement to drive transient topographic evolution hundreds of kilometers away from the ice margin, long after the disappearance of ice sheets. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a three‐dimensional watershed modelling system for water cycle in the middle part of the Heihe rivershed,in the west of China

A three‐dimensional numerical modelling system is developed to study transformation processes of water resources in alluvial fan and river basin along the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, an arid and semi‐arid region. Integrating land utilization, remote sensing and geographic information systems, we have developed a numerical modelling system that can be used to quantify the effects of land use and anthropogenic activities on the groundwater system as well as to investigate the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Various hydraulic measurements are used to identify and calibrate the hydraulic boundary conditions and spatial distributions of hydraulic parameters. In the modelling study, various water exchanges and human effects on the watershed system are considered. These include water exchange between surface water and groundwater, groundwater pumping, lateral water recharges from mountain areas, land utilization, and infiltration and evaporation in the irrigation and non‐irrigation areas. The modelling system provides a quantitative method to describe spatial and temporal distributions and transformations between various water resources, and it has application to other watersheds in arid and semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Upstream and downstream controls of recent avulsions on the Taquari megafan,Pantanal, south‐western Brazil

Avulsion, the natural relocation of a river, is a key process in the evolution of subaerial fans, river floodplains and deltas. The causes of avulsion are poorly understood, which is partly due to the scarcity of field studies of present avulsions. At present, two avulsions are occurring on the middle and lower Taquari megafan, Pantanal basin, south‐western Brazil. Here we present an analysis of the causes of these avulsions based on field and remote sensing data and show that avulsions on megafans can be controlled by both upstream and downstream processes. The middle fan avulsion (started in 1997–1998) is a result of upstream control: overbank aggradation was caused by the (variable) input of sandy sediment into the system, which caused channel‐belt superelevation and also created an easily erodible subsurface favouring bank retreat, crevassing, and scour of deep floodplain channels. The sandy subsurface in this area is inferred to have been a major factor in the causation of this avulsion under conditions of little gradient advantage. The lower fan avulsion (started c. 1990) results from interplay of upstream and downstream controls, the latter being related to the local base level (the Paraguay River floodplain) at the toe of the fan. Channel and overbank aggradation on the lower fan was influenced by fan sub‐lobe progradation and channel backfilling. Fan sub‐lobe progradation caused a significant gradient advantage of the avulsion channel over the parent channel. Avulsions are commonly supposed to be preferentially triggered by high‐magnitude floods, when there is considerable channel‐belt superelevation. However, both avulsions studied by us were triggered by small to average floods, with modest channel‐belt superelevation. We conclude that flood magnitude and channel‐belt superelevation have been overrated as causes of avulsion, and demonstrate additional causes that influence the growth of crevasses into avulsions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interaction between the controls on fluvial system development: tectonics,climate, base level and river capture – Rio Alias,Southeast Spain

Fluvial systems in uplifting terrain respond to tectonic, climatic, eustatic and local base‐level controls modified by specific local factors, such as river capture. The Rio Alias in southeast Spain is an ephemeral, transverse‐to‐structure fluvial system. The river drains two interconnected Neogene sedimentary basins, the Sorbas and Almeria basins, and crosses two major geological structures, the Sierras de Alhamilla/Cabrera and the Carboneras Fault Zone. Regional epeirogenic uplift resulted in sustained fluvial incision during the Quaternary, punctuated by major climatically driven periods of aggradation and dissection, which created a suite of five river terraces. The river terrace sequence was radically modified in the late Pleistocene by a major river capture (itself a response to regional tectonics), localized tectonic activity and eustatic base‐level change. The Rio Alias is defined by four reaches; within each the climatically‐generated, region‐wide, fluvial response was modified by tectonics, base‐level change or river capture to varying degrees. In the upper part of the basin (Lucainena reach), climate was the dominant control on river development, with limited modification of the sequence by uplift of the Sierra Alhamilla and local drainage reorganization by a local river capture. Downstream of the Sierra Alhamilla in the Polopus reach, the climatic signal is dominant, but its expression is radically modified by the response to a major river capture whereby the Alias system lost up to 70% of its pre‐capture drainage area. In the reach adjacent to the Carboneras Fault Zone (Argamason reach), modification of the terrace sequence by local tectonic activity and a resultant local base‐level fall led to a major local incisional event (propagating c. 3–4 km upstream from the area of tectonic disturbance). At the seaward end of the system (El Saltador reach) Quaternary sea‐level changes modified the patterns of erosion and incision and have resulted in steep incisional terrace profiles. The signals generated by regional tectonics and the Quaternary climate change can be identified throughout the basin but those generated by ongoing local tectonics, river capture and sea‐level change are spatially restricted and define the four reaches. The connectivity of the system from the headwaters to the coast decreased through time as incision progressed, resulting in changes in local coupling characteristics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of long-term changes in valley geomorphology on the behavior of small-volume pyroclastic flows

Stratigraphic mapping in the lower 3km of the Vazcún Valley on the NE flank of Volcán Tungurahua (Ecuador) provides insight into the effects of long-term geomorphic changes on pyroclastic flow behavior. Exposures of deposits in the Vazcún Valley record activity over the last 2000years, during which time significant changes in the geomorphology of the valley have occurred. Two sets of terraces are present in the lower 2–3km of the valley, the older of which grades into a small debris fan at the mouth of the valley. Each terrace formed during a period of frequent activity that was separated by a long period of quiescence during which the Río Vazcún eroded a channel as deep as 40m reaching the previous base level. The pyroclastic flows from historical eruptions appear to have been largely contained within the channel that is cut through the higher terraces and debris fan. Their surface forms the lower terrace located upstream from the head of the debris fan. Thin pyroclastic deposits exposed within the city of Baños are mostly related to ash cloud surges that detached from the main flows as they slowed down within the channel. The lower reach of the present channel of the Rio Vazcún is very sinuous and deeply incised into the two sets of terraces. The winding channel would severely impede the mobility of future pyroclastic flows resulting in the deposition of thick deposits. Detachment of an overriding ash cloud surge could also occur in this region. Such a surge could be more likely to surmount the channel banks and travel over the surface of the terraces and debris for up to several kilometers from the channel.     

The impact of conjunctive use of canal and tube well water in Lagar irrigated area,Pakistan

Introduction of the large gravity irrigation system in the Indus Basin in the late 19th century without a drainage system resulted in a rising water table, which resulted in water logging and salinity problems over large areas. In order to cope with the salinity and water logging problem, the Pakistan government initiated installation of 10,000 tube wells in different areas. This not only resulted in the lowering of water table, but also supplemented irrigation. Resulting benefits from the irrigation opportunities motivated framers to install private tube wells. The Punjab area meets 40% of its irrigation needs from groundwater abstraction. Today, farmers apply both surface water flows and groundwater from tube wells, creating a pattern of private and public water control. Sustainable use of groundwater needs proper quantification of the resource and information on processes involved in its recharge and discharge. The field work in the Lagar irrigated area, discussed in this paper, show that within the general picture of conjunctive use of canal water and groundwater, there is a clear spatial pattern between upstream and downstream areas, with upstream areas depending much less on groundwater than downstream areas. The irrigation context in the study area proves to be highly complex, with water users having differential access to canal and tube well water, resulting in different responses of farmers with their irrigation strategies, which in turn affect the salinity and water balances on the fields.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple calcrete profiles in the Tabernas Basin,southeast Spain: their origins and geomorphic implications

The paper describes a sequence of Pliocene(? ) to Quaternary age calcretes developed within alluvial fan and fluvial gravels in the Tabernas Basin, Almería Province, southeast Spain. Calcrete profiles are described from sites adjacent to major tributaries of the Rambla de Tabernas. Six distinct calcrete units are identified within the basin. These have variable distributions but have developed in an identifiable evolutionary sequence. Two pairs of calcrete units are widely present across the basin preserving two former land surfaces. Each of the former land surfaces has been planated and subsequently buried by alluvial fan or fluvial gravels. A massive calcrete unit is present at the base of each gravel sequence, immediately in contact with the underlying bedrock, with a less well developed calcrete unit situated at the top of the gravel sequence. The lowest two calcrete units within the basin are more spatially restricted and are confined to the floors and flanks of incised drainage lines. The geochemistry, macro- and micromorphological properties and geomorphological positions of the calcrete units are outlined and, on the basis of this information, their mode of origin identified. Two main modes of calcrete genesis appear to be present: massive calcretes situated in direct contact with bedrock are suggested to have formed by groundwater processes, whilst calcretes situated at the top of gravel sequences are likely to have developed by pedogenic processes. Calcrete genesis is subsequently considered in the context of the reconstruction of the early phases of landscape development, and is suggested to have been controlled by phases of uplift and stability within the Tabernas Basin. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From mass‐wasting to slope stabilization – putting constrains on a tectonically induced transition in slope erosion mode: a case study in the Judea Hills,Israel

Calcrete‐coated remnants of landslide debris and alluvial deposits are exposed along the presently stable hillslopes of the Soreq drainage, Judea Hills, Israel. These remnants indicate that a transition from landslide‐dominated terrain to dissolution‐controlled hillslope erosion had occurred. This transition possibly occurred due to the significant decrease in tectonic uplift during the late Cenozoic. The study area is characterized by sub‐humid Mediterranean climate. The drainage hillslopes are typically mantled by thick calcrete crusts overlying Upper Cretaceous marine carbonate rocks. Using TT‐OSL dating of aeolian quartz grains incorporated in the calcrete which cements an ancient landslide deposit, we conclude that incision of ~100 m occurred from 1056 ± 262 to 688 ± 86 ka due to ~0·3° westward tilt of the region; such incision invoked high frequency of landslide activity in the drainage. The ages of a younger landslide remnant, alluvial terrace, and alluvial fan, all situated only a few meters above the present level of the active streambed, range between 688 ± 86 ka and 244 ± 25 ka and indicate that since 688 ± 86 the Soreq base level had stabilized and that landslide activity decreased significantly by the middle Pleistocene. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.