台风暴雨型泥石流单沟危险度研究

台风暴雨型泥石流分布广泛并常造成重大灾害,有必要对其危险度进行研究。选取温州山区的14处典型台风暴雨型泥石流为研究对象,构建了基于组合因子的单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。选取泥石流规模（M）、泥石流频率（F）、冲沟纵比降（J）、形成区完整系数（C）、台风降雨综合值（E）和地质综合因子（G）来表征泥石流危险程度,并基于信息熵理论获得各组合因子权重值。针对研究区均为低频泥石流的特点,引入麦尔登比率（R值）以间接确定基于不同R值范围的泥石流爆发频率（F）。将评价模型应用于所选的典型沟谷,得到各沟谷泥石流危险度,评价结果符合研究区泥石流沟谷为中、小型低频泥石流的实际情况,并且评价为危险度高的沟谷具备区域上最易形成泥石流的地质地貌条件。     

区域泥石流危险度评价研究进展

评述了自20世纪80年代末我国开展泥石流危险度评价研究以来,两个主要不同时期的区域泥石流危险度评价方法及其发展过程.详述了我国现行的区域泥石流危险度评价技术及其改进的评价因子转换赋值新方法.现行的区域泥石流危险度评价方法于1995年提出,是以不同的行政区划为基本单元来进行的.评价因子包括主要因子泥石流分布密度,次要因子岩石风化程度系数、断裂带密度、≥25°坡地面积百分比、洪灾发生频率、月降雨量变差系数、年雨量平均≥25mm大雨日数和坡度≥25°坡耕地面积百分比.区域泥石流危险度表达为以上8个因子极差变换后的赋值与其相应的权重乘积之和.这一评价公式,加强了主要因子的作用.主要因子的权重系数上升到33%时则使区域泥石流危险度评价可用一个简单的数学公式来表达.得出的危险度数值已经标准化,取值范围介于0～1之间.这一评价方法的不足之处是得出的危险度数值只有相对意义而不具有绝对意义.在最新的区域泥石流危险度评价研究中,通过分段函数赋值的新方法克服了上述不足.分段函数赋值是基于以下的假定当评价因子超过和等于某一上限值时赋值为1;等于下限值时赋值为0;处于中间值的赋值为0.5.以这3个数值为控制点,假定在每2个点之间,赋值呈线性变化.当中间点为上、下2点之平均值时为双线性模型;当中间点不为上、下限2点之平均值时为三线性模型.根据我国西南地区已有资料的统计,得出了区域泥石流危险度8项评价因子的分段赋值函数.通过2种不同赋值方法在四川凉山州和阿坝州区域泥石流危险度评价中计算结果的比较,从绝对数值来看,分段函数赋值得出的危险度高于极差变换得出的危险度.对于泥石流危险度分析来说,相对偏大的保守估计更为可取.从相对数值来看,两者都具有相同的变化趋势.说明分段函数赋值计算出的区域泥石流危险度既能在同一区域内进行比较,也能在不同区域间进行比较,达到了改进的目的.现阶段我国正在使用的区域泥石流危险度多因子综合评价模型仍然属于经验模型的范畴.它是在经验的基础上采用推理和统计的方法建立的一种评价模型.我们的最终目标是在科学假定和合理简化的基础上,用代表泥石流危险度的2个本质的特征参数泥石流规模和发生频率来建立起区域泥石流危险度的理论模型,并用量化的数学公式来表达.因此,泥石流规模和发生频率相互关系的研究是实现这一目标的突破点.也是今后区域泥石流危险度评价研究的重点所在.     

沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价方法研究——以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例

在总结皖南地区泥石流主要特征的基础上,重新梳理了沟谷型泥石流调查评价过程中的调查要素和评价因子,提出了沟谷型泥石流调查评价工作方法:对沟谷进行泥石流初步评价,以可搬运物源量和可淤积容量比值系数作为初步评判标准;以沟谷泥石流集水盆地形态特征、可搬运物源属性分布及储量、堆积区地形等特征作为主要调查内容,对易发性评价因子赋予分值.在此基础上,以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例,探讨更直观、更科学、更切合实际的沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价工作方法.     

Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis based on principal component analysis and self-organizing map: a case study in Southwest China

A method was developed to analyze the susceptibilities of 541 regional basins affected by debris flows at the Wudongde Dam site in southwest China. Determining susceptibility requires information on source material quantity and occurrence frequency. However, the large number of debris flows can hinder the individual field investigation in a each small basin. Factors that may trigger debris flows can be identified using remotely sensed interpretation information. Susceptibility analysis can then be conducted based on these factors. In this study, SPOT5 satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), a lithology distribution map, and rainfall monitoring data were used to identify 12 debris flow trigger factors: basin relief ratio, slope gradient in the initiation zone, drainage density, downslope curvature of the main channel, vegetation coverage, main channel aspect, topographic wetness index, Melton’s ruggedness number, lithology, annual rainfall, form factor, and cross-slope curvature of the transportation zone. Principal component analysis was used to obtain the eight principal components of these factors that contribute to susceptibility results. Then, a self-organizing map method was adopted to analyze the principal components, which resulted in a debris flow susceptibility classification. Field validation of 26 debris flow basins was used to evaluate the errors of the susceptibility classification, as well as assess the causes of such errors. The study found that principle component analysis and self-organizing map methodologies are good predictors of basin susceptibility to debris flows.     

Prediction method of debris flow by logistic model with two types of rainfall: a case study in the Sichuan, China

Debris flow is a serious disaster that frequently happens in mountainous area. This study presents an effective method for forecasting it by rainfall, which is one of the important components for prediction. The Sichuan Province is taken as an example. The geographic information system (GIS) is chosen as a tool to estimate the precipitation of hazard point, and use of statistical technique is made to calculate attenuation coefficient of effective antecedent precipitation. With such methodologies, the logistic regression model is used to comparatively establish the prediction model of two forms rainfall combination: (1) intraday rainfall and 10-day previous rainfall, (2) intraday rainfall and two types of effective antecedent rainfall which are short-time-heavy rainfall and long-time-light rainfall. The results indicate that the location of debris flows and the distribution of rainfall are factors interrelated. Secondly, the contribution rate of intraday rainfall is the highest. Thirdly, the second form rainfall combination has a higher prediction accuracy, 2.3% for short-time-heavy rainfall and 2.1% for long-time-light rainfall, which suggests that a moderate improvement is achieved by the rainfall classification.     

A coupled SPH-DEM-FEM model for fluid-particle-structure interaction and a case study of Wenjia gully debris flow impact estimation

Landslides - Debris flows are rapid gravity-driven unsteady flows of highly concentrated mixtures of water and solid particle material, destroying numerous mountain building structures and traffic...     

Risk analysis for drought hazard in China: a case study in Huaibei Plain

In recent decades, risk management is significant to mitigate the severe status caused by droughts. As one of the primary components in risk analysis, drought hazard analysis is basic but important. In this paper, the framework of drought risk analysis and the methodology for drought hazard analysis are presented, and Huaibei Plain of China is chosen as the study area. The whole study region is divided into three parts (northern, central, and southern) by geographical factors, and a developed index named drought comprehensive Z index (DCZI) containing hydrological and meteorological factors is employed for drought hazard analysis in each area. By comparison, it implicates that DCZI is applicable for Huaibei Plain and indicates drought extent more objectively. Moreover, the results of drought hazard analysis reflect that the northern area is affected by droughts more seriously. As for the whole region, there is a great probability of severe drought. Finally, some policy recommendations on drought management are also made.     

我国“地质灾害危险性评估技术要求”中的有关问题——以泥石流灾害为例

针对我国试行的《地质灾害危险性评估技术要求(试行)》存在的问题,认为地质灾害危险性评估应该包括区域评估、流域评估和场地评估三个层次.阐述和分析了顶层设计与区域评估、流域评估和场地评估的任务和内容,对地质灾害危险性评估范围、评估分级、调查内容(以泥石流为例)、评估内容、提交成果,以及评估报告参考提纲等,提出了具体修订建议.     

Neural network modeling for regional hazard assessment of debris flow in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis. The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land (APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV–V, indicating that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed.     

Numerical SPH analysis of debris flow run-out and related river damming scenarios for a local case study in SW China

A smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) numerical modeling method implemented for the forward simulation of propagation and deposition of flow-type landslides was combined with different empirical geomorphological index approaches for the assessment of the formation of landslide dams and their possible evolution for a local case study in southwestern China. The SPH model was calibrated with a previously occurred landslide that formed a stable dam impounding the main river, and it enabled the simulation of final landslide volumes, and the spatial distribution of the resulting landslide deposits. At four different sites on the endangered slope, landslides of three different volumes were simulated, respectively. All landslides deposited in the main river, bearing the potential for either stable impoundment of the river and upstream flooding scenarios, or sudden breach of incompletely formed or unstable landslide dams and possible outburst floods downstream. With the empirical indices, none of the cases could be identified as stable formed landslide dam when considering thresholds reported in the literature, showing up the limitations of these indices for particular case studies of small or intermediate landslide volumes and the necessity to adapt thresholds accordingly for particular regions or sites. Using the occurred benchmark landslide as a reference, two cases could be identified where a complete blockage occurs that is more stable than the reference case. The other cases where a complete blockage was simulated can be considered as potential dam-breach scenarios.     

Qualitative hazard and risk assessment of landslides: a practical framework for a case study in China

Natural Hazards - Landslides are presented in various types; some of which are unique or completely different from those in other countries due to geological conditions in China. Baoji City in...     

泥石流防治工程损毁度评价

泥石流岩土防治工程被广泛应用于泥石流灾害的治理,而工程的损毁程度会对工程的功能性产生一定的影响,并影响效益的持续发挥。文章以汶川为研究区域,选取18条泥石流沟的岩土防治工程作为研究对象,结合现场考察,对防治工程的损毁程度进行评价。评价指标体系总体上分为拦挡工程因子和排导工程因子2项,细化二级评价指标包括坝基损毁度、坝肩损毁度、坝体损毁度、基础冲刷度、结构冲击度、斜坡推力度等6项。运用模糊综合评价方法构建判断矩阵和隶属度函数,将损毁度等级划分为优、良、中、差四个等级。评价结果显示,除板子沟和登溪沟的防治工程损毁等级为差和中以外,其余泥石流沟内防治工程损毁等级均为良或优,且评价结果与现场考察一致。     

Formation and characteristics of post-earthquake debris flow: a case study from Wenjia gully in Mianzhu, Sichuan, SW China

During the three flood seasons following the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, two catastrophic groups of debris flow events occurred in the earthquake-affected area: the 2008-9-24 debris flow events, which had a serious impact on rebuilding; and the 2010-8-13/14 debris flow events, which destroyed much of the progress made in rebuilding. The Wenjia gully is a typical post-earthquake debris flow gully and at least five debris flows have occurred there. As far as the 2010-8-13 debris flow is concerned, the deposits of the Wenjia gully debris flow reached a volume of 3.1 × 10⁶ m³ in volume and hundreds of newly built houses were buried. This study took the Wenjia gully debris flow as an example and discussed the formation and characteristics of post-earthquake debris flow on the basis of field investigations and a remote sensing interpretation. The conclusions drawn from the investigation and analysis were as follows: (1) Post-earthquake debris flows were a joint result of both the earthquake and heavy rainfall. (2) Gully incision and loose material provision are key processes in the initiation and occurrence of debris flows and a cycle can be presented as the following process: runoff—erosion—collapse—engulfment—debris flow—further erosion—further collapse—further engulfment—debris flow enlargement. (3) The amount of rainfall that triggered debris flows from the Wenjia gully was significantly less than the average daily rainfall, while the intraday rainfall threshold decreased by at least 23.3%. (4) The occurrence mechanism of Wenjia gully debris flow was an erosion type and there was a positive relationship between debris flow magnitude and rainfall, which fitted an exponential model. (5) There were five representative characteristics of Wenjia gully debris flow: the long duration of the occurring process; the long distance of deposition chain conversion during the process of damage; magnification in the scale of debris flow; and the high frequency of debris flow events.     

Entropy theory-integrated information model for the assessment of geothermal potential: a case study of Tengchong County,Southwest China

Geothermal energy remains a largely undeveloped natural resource because of the high risk associated with its development. An accurate prediction model for easy identification of potential regions can help to lower the risk and cost associated with development. In this study, geothermal potential regions were identified through the relationship between geothermal emergencies and their controlling factors in Tengchong County, China. Publicly available databases for this analysis including epicenters, active faults, Bouguer gravity, Landsat7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus images, the magnetic data and digital elevation model data were extracted as the b-value map, distance to faults map, distance to main grabens map, land surface temperature map, magnetic anomaly map and distance to rivers map, respectively. Based on the platforms within geographic information system, an entropy theory-integrated information model was established to evaluate the geothermal potential sites within the region. Moreover, factor analysis method was applied to test the conditional independence between the map pairs before modeling application. The results of the weighted information model show that the model shows perfect performance in discovering potential geothermal regions. In the final maps, undeveloped or unexploited geothermal regions can be observed along the Mingguang River and Nu River. Undeniably, these models will help to find undiscovered geothermal regions with limited geological information publically available.     

Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou,China

Natural Hazards - Debris flow risk is growing with the current increases in landscape exploitation and extreme precipitation events associated with global warming. Insurance is an efficient...     

Impacts of small woody debris on slurrying,persistence, and propagation in a low-gradient channel of the Dongyuege debris flow in Nu River,Southwest China

Debris flows occurring in well-vegetated alpine areas usually contain a range of sizes of woody debris. Large woody debris (LWD), which has a retaining effect on further transportation of debris downstream, is mainly distributed in upstream reaches, and the amount of small woody debris (SWD) deriving from LWD increases dramatically midstream and downstream. The Dongyuege (DYG) bouldery debris flow with a sandy-matrix took place in a wildwood area, causing 96 deaths and its clay-sized fraction does not contain typical clay minerals. However, its total travel distance and runout distance in a low-gradient reach (between 2° and 5°) upstream of the depositional fan apex reached 11 km and 3.3 km, respectively. The abundant SWD in the DYG debris flow might have played a crucial role in slurrying, persistence, and the long runout over the low gradient. To understand why this debris flow extended so far, slurrying experiments, pore water escape experiments, and excess pore pressure experiments were performed. Crude debris (CD) collected from the DYG debris flow deposit was used throughout the experiments, the tested materials of which are separated into CD-containing SWD with a maximum grain size (MGS?=?2 mm), purified debris (PD) without SWD with a MGS of 2 mm, and SWD <?2 mm in diameter. In the five slurrying experiments with PD-SWD-water mixtures, as the SWD content was elevated from 0.0 to 2.0 wt%, the current velocity of escaping pore water decreased uniformly from 17.2 to 0.9 mm/s. When the SWD content was 1.0 wt% or greater, the mixtures can be considered as one-phase flows of viscous fluids. The six pairs of pore water escape experiments based on the slurries remolded with CD and PD, respectively showed that the time needed for pore water to escape from the CD slurries was much greater than those from their PD counterparts. Also, measured was the dissipation rate of the relative excess pore pressure of CD and PD slurries of various densities and volumes, which showed that most of the rates of the PD-slurries were always greater than CD-slurries. Overall, the results show that SWD has a strong influence on the slurrying of the DYG debris without typical clay minerals found in other debris flows, and SWD helps to sustain the high excess pore pressure in the interior of the debris flow mass which resulted in the extended travel distance over such a low gradient. SWD favors the formation and stability of one-phase water-debris mixtures because of its large specific surface area and low density, which makes it able to absorb fine particles and able to be suspended in slurry flows over long timescales. In well-vegetated mountainous areas, SWD should be taken into account in the assessment of debris-flow hazards.