Reasons for Returning and Not Returning to Rural U.S. Communities

Population loss persists in nonmetropolitan America, especially in isolated counties with limited natural amenities. Communities in these counties experience high levels of outmigration among high school graduates, but low in-migration is more important in distinguishing declining from growing nonmetropolitan counties, and return migration is a much more prominent component of in-migration to these locationally disadvantaged areas. This research uses a multisited, interview-based methodology to understand the factors that influence decisions of people in their late twenties to late forties to move back to rural communities and the barriers that keep others from making such moves. The life course segment considered here captures a critical “settling down” period when career and family obligations overlap and return migration peaks. Interviews at high school reunions, the only venues where stayers, return migrants, and nonreturn migrants are found together, show that limited rural employment opportunities are barriers for nonreturnees. Others intent on returning find ways to secure or create employment but are primarily influenced to move home by family concerns. Connections to the larger social and physical environment of the community are important as well. Interviews affirm that factors affecting migration decisions work in combination, and ties to both people and place are critical for understanding rural return migration.     

新型城镇化背景下流动特征与农民工回流意愿的关系

使用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,借助描述性分析和多分类Logistic回归模型分析方法,探讨新型城镇化背景下农民工回流意愿的现状与特点、流动特征与回流意愿的关系。研究发现,农民工的回流意愿很弱,有回流意愿并打算近期回流的农民工比例较低,回流地域以原居地为主、户籍地的乡镇和区县政府所在地为辅。模型结果显示,流动特征显著影响农民工的回流意愿：跨省流动者“打算回流”的概率大于省内流动者;流动时间短和非举家流动者“打算回流”“近期回流”“回原居地”的概率分别大于流动时间长和举家流动者;有留守子女者“打算回流”“近期回流”的概率大于没有留守子女者。最后,建议政府实施以“异地市民化”为主、“回流式市民化”为辅的市民化策略;继续深化制度改革,为农民工流动扫清制度壁垒和提供均等化公共服务;促进中西部和东北部地区的经济社会发展,出台鼓励农民工回乡创业和就业的优惠政策等方式来推进以农民工市民化为重点的新型城镇化发展。     

Managed Temporary Labour Migration of Pacific Islanders to Australia and New Zealand in the Early Twenty-first Century

ABSTRACT

Circular migration was one of several enduring themes in Graeme Hugo’s highly productive research career. Although his specialist field was Asian population movement, during the 2000s he became increasingly interested in labour migration in the Pacific Islands. This paper reviews the development of two managed circular migration schemes targeting Pacific labour that emerged following the UN High-level Dialogue on International Migration and Development in 2006. New Zealand’s Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme and Australia’s Seasonal Worker Program (SWP) have attracted international attention as the kind of ‘best practice’ temporary labour migration schemes that Hugo had in mind when he emphasised the positive contributions that circular forms of mobility could make to development in both source and destination countries. The two schemes have transformed mobility between the participating countries and have played a major role in the negotiations over a free-trade agreement between Pacific Forum countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Although the schemes have been in operation for almost 10 years, this paper argues that they are not becoming ‘business as usual’; they embody complex systems of relationships between multiple stakeholders that require ongoing management to ensure that they do not become traps for low-skilled, low-paid ‘permanent’ temporary workers.     

农村居民婚姻迁移空间演变及内在机制——以四川盆地为例

婚姻迁移是农村人口迁移的重要方面,在不同的经济社会背景下,农村居民的婚姻迁移表现出不同的空间特征,并随着经济社会的变迁不断发生演变。本文以四川盆地为例,采用经验主义的研究方法,立足于大量的实地调研资料,分析了我国农村居民婚姻迁移空间演变的主要特征,表现出通婚的地域范围在各个时期发生着不同形式的变化,总体上呈随时代发展逐渐扩大的态势,地理环境、文化程度和从业状况与婚迁距离有密切关系,经济因素在婚迁地域选择中的作用日益突出。同时,探讨了农村居民婚姻迁移空间演变的内在机制,认为其是随着经济社会的发展,在农村生产经营方式变革、国家社会政策、经济利益诉求、空间距离阻力、婚介手段变化等多种因素共同作用下所产生的。     

End of an Era? Population Geography in New Zealand at the Turn of the Century

Research into and teaching on population issues in New Zealand's university geography departments is at a crossroads. A significant cohort of New Zealand population geographers who gained their graduate and post-graduate training during the 1950s and 1960s is rapidly diminishing as a result of retirements and late career shifts. In the much more competitive university environment of the 1990s staff are either not being replaced, or their positions and programmes are being reshaped as part of radical restructuring of the social sciences and humanities. This paper reflects on recent developments in population geography in New Zealand, highlighting the contributions made by three of the country's most prominent researchers and teachers in what is fast becoming a dying field of discourse in university geography departments. The paper concludes on an ambivalent note about prospects for geographers in the era of sub-replacement fertility and the heightened attention that will be accorded to migration processes.     

Return migration of 1.5 generation Korean New Zealanders: Short‐term and long‐term motives

Through in‐depth interviews and participant observation with 40 1.5 generation Korean New Zealander returnees, we explore life trajectories and identify both short‐ and long‐term reasons for return. Short‐term reasons for return include moving home when entering adulthood in order to begin a career, gaining new experiences and finding a future spouse. Longer term influences include the difficulties of living as minority‐status immigrants in the host society, transnational connections and a longing for a sense of ‘home’. Our consideration of longer term migration strategies sheds light upon the often forgotten difficulties and complexities that can underlie an individual's return.     

Prelude to Brazil: Leo Waibel's American Career as a Displaced Scholar

Beyond Germany, Leo Waibel (1888–1951) built a distinguished reputation for his work in Africa and the Americas. Today he is remembered especially in Brazil, where he boosted the development of geography as a research discipline in the years 1946–1950. During his tenure of the chair in geography at Bonn (1929–1937), Waibel's main research preoccupation became the role of the tropics in the world economy. In early 1937, he sought research leave to make an extended field trip to Brazil. Stripped on political grounds in the same year of his chair, Waibel came to the United States, where he became the only geographer to receive help from the Emergency Committee in Aid of Displaced Foreign Scholars. He would eventually serve as one of the very limited core staff on President Franklin Roosevelt's “M” Project on migration and settlement. This paper reconstructs the context of his work in the United States, clarifying especially the nature of his collaborations with Isaiah Bowman, widely regarded at the time as the leading geographer within the United States. Waibel's correspondence from the United States, and later from Brazil, reveals an international career marked by contradictions.     

Geographic Education and Careers in Geography

Abstract

Disciplinary concern with career options and opportunities has fluctuated over the years. Not surprisingly, geography continues to be incorrectly stereotyped as a field of study offering limited employment prospects. While geographic education has long focused on content, it must also embrace the importance of educating instructors, students, and career counselors concerning how the field opens doors to viable careers. This article presents a program that can be implemented by college and university departments to raise awareness and disseminate information about career opportunities in geography. The program emphasizes an integrated approach that includes partnerships with alumni, campus placement offices, and employers.     

中国省际人口迁移短期预测分析

人口迁移是一个时空路径依赖过程,同时受迁移存量和周边迁移状况影响。当前人口迁移预测大多建立在时间序列模型之上,重点考虑迁移流在时间维度上的联系,忽视了其中的时空关联。该文将特征向量时空滤波方法与普通泊松模型相结合,考虑迁移流中可能存在的时空滞后和同期两种结构,对1985-2015年不同时段的中国省际人口迁移流数据进行建模和估计,并利用拟合程度较优的模型预测2015-2025年省际人口迁移的发展趋势。结果表明:1)特征向量时空滞后和同期滤波泊松模型均能较好地模拟研究时段省际人口迁移过程,自1985年以来我国省际人口迁移流不仅受迁出地和迁入地经济、社会等因素影响,也与过去迁移存量及周边迁移流密切相关;2)区域人口规模和GDP对迁移流的“推—拉”作用符合预期,地区人口规模较高和经济发展水平较低会促进人口外迁,反之则有利于吸引外来人口;3)与特征向量时空滞后滤波泊松模型相比,时空同期模型更便于捕捉省际人口迁移过程中的时空路径依赖特性,意味着当前人口迁移流的发展更易受到同时期周边迁移流的影响,表现出明显的羊群效应;4)预计2015-2025年我国省际迁移总量持续增加,呈现更集聚的空间模式,高迁入与高迁出区域在空间上相连,形成一条南北贯通的“高密度迁移地带”。将特征向量时空滤波模型拓展到人口迁移这一空间相互作用领域,可为当前构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制等提供科学参考。     

黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模

人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角,从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征,并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型,综合考虑经济和就业政策因素,建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布,呈现列维飞行特点;该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局,人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局,人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性;黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重;城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大,迁移的频率较高;但是经过通过模拟,该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。     

The geography of dual career households: a research agenda and selected evidence from secondary data sources for Britain

"Amongst the key dimensions of population and labour market change in most parts of western Europe and other similar economies in the 1990s are low fertility rates, rising numbers of smaller households, increasing female participation rates, growth in higher level non-manual occupations and the spread of flexible employment patterns. This paper explores how these trends have led to an increase in the number and significance of one particular subgroup: dual career households. An overview from available secondary sources of the geography and socio-economic characteristics of such households in Britain is presented, and directions for possible future research on dual career households are outlined."     

Conceptualising Irish rural youth migration: a biographical approach

This paper explores the usefulness of a biographical approach in studying Irish rural youth migration. There have been calls recently for an approach to migration study that involves conceptualizing migration as part of individual biographies as well as social structures. However, there is little research that explicitly adopts a biographical approach. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, methodological issues and findings of a recent study that was guided by the principles of a biographical approach to migration. The study was an exploration of life-path formation among Irish rural youth from the 1970s to the 1990s. The paper focuses on the three key elements of a biographical approach to migration, and relates them to Irish rural youth migration. Firstly, migration is considered as part of an individual's biography, and the methodological implications of this are explored. Secondly, it is argued, drawing on the research in Ireland, that migration decision-making is a multilayered process. In the case of Irish rural youth migration, a biographical approach highlights the complexity of migration decision-making, revealing the tensions and struggles that lie behind each move, and thus raises questions over the tendency towards simplification of the migration process. Finally, it is argued that migration is a cultural phenomenon, but that this assertion needs careful qualification. This paper problematizes the role of culture in migration processes by untangling the systems of competing discourses of migration that underlie societal norms regarding migration, thereby challenging the view of migration as "normal" for particular societies or cultures.     

中国人口迁移流动的时间过程及其空间效应研究：回顾与展望

对人口迁移流动时间过程及其空间效应研究的国内外研究进展进行了全面系统的回顾和评述,揭示了中国迄今这方面工作在研究内容、数据来源和理论框架等方面的不足,在此基础上展望了中国人口迁移流动时间过程及其空间效应研究的未来发展,认为今后中国人口迁移流动研究的一个重要方向是在获取迁移流动人口流迁过程历时数据的基础上,分阶段系统考察人口迁移流动各具体环节及相关就业、住房、家庭等特征的时空变化及其机制,填补在人口迁移流动时间过程研究上的缺漏,并把对各单个流迁阶段的研究结果整合为对整体流迁过程的新的规律性认识。这将拓展和深化人口迁移流动空间格局及其形成机制的研究,推进人口迁移流动时空过程及其演变规律相关理论的发展。     

The floating population: an informal process of urbanisation in China

"This paper attempts to employ substantial source materials to shed light on the characteristics of population migration in a centrally planned society that is in the process of transforming to a market economy. In order to compare rural-urban migration in China with that in other developing countries, the data on 1985-1990 interprovincial population migration have been analysed. Some demographic research techniques on population migration, such as the impact on the place of origin and the place of destination, have been employed to assess the influence of rural-urban migration on China's long-term economic development. Economic betterment appears to be the sole motivation of rural population migration in China."     

中国近期农村人口迁移态势研究

采用第四次、第五次人口普查所获得的人口迁移数据,分析了中国农村人口迁移在全国总迁移人口中的地位变化的省际总体特征和个体特征,探讨了各省级单元农村人口迁移在总人口迁移中的地位在20世纪80年代和90年代随时间变化的原因。进一步重点研究了中国农村人口迁移的时空分布格局,分别从省际、省内两个空间尺度,分迁入、迁出两个角度对中国农村人口迁移的规模和流向态势进行了深入分析。     

从大众旅游到乡村旅居:乡村区域旅游发展的新趋势——基于元方法的驱动力分析与旅居地假设

在流动性的总体框架中思考中国新兴的乡村旅居现象,界定乡村旅居的基本内涵,借助国外相关实证研究结果中的元数据和主要观点,分析和探讨了乡村旅居的若干属性,结果表明:①乡村旅居以乡村性所提供的核心价值为本源驱动,是乡村旅游发展的阶段性产物,其与各类现代乡村旅游活动共享了相同的3维驱动力空间.②在休闲时间和可支配收入既定的情况...     

中国1995—2000年省间人口迁移模拟与迁移因素对迁移规模贡献的分解

尝试用泊松模拟方法建立人口迁移模型,并且与传统人口迁移模型的结果进行比较,说明泊松人口迁移模型的优点.本研究使用一种新的人口迁移因素分解方法,在人口迁移模型的基础上,估计空间因素、迁入地和迁出地因素的空间结构、迁入地迁出地因素本身对人口迁移规模的贡献.本研究使用的实例数据是中国2000年人口普查得到的1995—2000年省间人口迁移数据.     

1990—2015年亚洲内部人口迁移格局及影响因素

把握亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移规律,有助于新时期中国制定合理的国际移民政策,推动“一带一路”倡议迈向高质量发展。本文基于1990—2015年国际双边移民流量数据,运用社会网络分析和空间滤波面板负二项引力模型,阐明亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移的时空格局与驱动因素。研究发现：① 1990—2000年亚洲主要迁移流集中在西亚、南亚和东南亚各区域内部,且大多发生在邻国之间,2000—2015年出现多条横跨上述三大区域的大规模迁移流;② 人口迁移网络强度相对较低,联系紧密程度先升后降;③ 政治不稳定与战乱冲突是人口迁移的重要推动力,经济发展水平差异和国民收入差异是重要驱动力,多维邻近因素（经济邻近和文化邻近）也起到一定的推动作用;④ 25年间,经济差异的影响先增后减;政治不稳定一直是人口迁移的主要影响因素,且对人口迁出的影响更大;进出口贸易发展在部分时期积极促进人口流动,留学吸引力影响呈波动趋势;⑤ 非经济和结构性力量在亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移过程中起到决定性作用。     

跨国人口迁移新特征下的移民研究转向——移民产业概念的提出、发展与应用

基于西方学界中移民产业的相关文献,系统梳理了移民产业概念的形成、发展与应用。研究发现：首先,移民产业概念在分析尺度上将宏观与微观相结合,并引入多主体分析的视角,因此其在解释跨国人口迁移在不同阶段的特征与机制方面显现出相对的灵活性;其次,移民产业概念主要被应用于解释流动性机制、跨国移民治理、跨国移民的在地化3个方面。通过对移民产业概念的渊源、发展和相关实证研究的梳理,以期为中国的移民研究提供新的视角、为移民管制及移民政策的制订提供参考与借鉴。     

企业迁移研究进展

企业迁移研究对区域经济统筹发展、区域政策的制定具有重要的指导意义．本研究通过梳理国内外相关文献,从企业迁移的类型、三大基础理论学派的对比和国内外在实证研究的研究内容和方法上的差异等3个方面对企业迁移研究进行了较为系统的回顾与总结,并提出未来研究的展望,指出企业迁移的内部因素、企业迁移与区域经济发展的关系、企业迁移的绩效研究等应成为未来研究的重点领域．