Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks during solar minimum (1995–1996) and solar maximum (2000)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations across fast forward interplanetary shocks are analyzed during the last solar cycle minimum (1995–1996, 15 shocks), and maximum year 2000 (50 shocks). It was observed that the solar wind velocity and magnetic field strength variation across the shocks were the parameters better correlated with Dst. Superposed epoch analysis centered on the shock showed that, during solar minimum, B _z profiles had a southward, long-duration variation superposed with fluctuations, whereas in solar maximum the B _z profile presented 2 peaks. The first peak occurred 4 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the magnetic field disturbed by the shock in the sheath region. The second peak occurred 19 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the ejecta fields. The difference in shape and peak in solar maximum (Dst peak =−50 nT, moderate activity) and minimum (Dst peak =−30 nT, weak activity) in average Dst profiles after shocks are, probably, a consequence of the energy injection in the magnetosphere being driven by different interplanetary southward magnetic structures. A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was also obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst≤−100 nT) and 28% by moderate (−50≤Dst <−100 nT) geomagnetic activity. During solar minimum, 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity, respectively. Thus, during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks might be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50–60% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

The energy distribution in the solar EUV spectrum and abundance of elements in the solar atmosphere

This paper is a result of the evolution of researches on the prediction and identification of the solar EUV spectrum by Ivanov-Holodny and the author.An absolute calibration of the solar EUV spectrum is given. The corresponding energy distribution is shown in Figure 2. During the minimum solar activity the radiation flux in the range below 1027 Å near the earth is 2.6 erg/cm² sec, in the maximum it is 8 erg/cm² sec.Abundances of fifteen elements in the solar atmosphere were deduced (Table III) from a comparison of predicted and observed intensities of more than 300 lines in the spectral region below 1215 Å.     

Small scale solar magnetic fields and their relation to various solar activity indices

Correlation studies between various solar activity indices and a long time series of annual sums of the maximum value of solar magnetic field intensity, observed for each group of sunspots during each passage of it over the visible solar hemisphere, have pointed out a couple of interesting points. First, the faculae have a significant contribution to the numerical representation of the small scale solar magnetic coefficients and low standard errors of estimation to the above mentioned maximum values of the solar magnetic field. These properties give to the area index an important physical meaning which is a first approximation to the small scale solar magnetic fields expressed by the above-mentioned maximum values of it. Finally, the main point which comes out is that long term studies of the solar magnetic fields, especially extrapolated studies to the past, could be supported by photospheric indices of the solar activity. This paper constitutes the expanded version of a report presented to theIAU Symposium No. 102 ‘Solar and Stellar magnetic fields: Origins and coronal effects’, held in Zürich 2–6 August, 1982.     

Solar neutrino in relation to solar activity

Here we have carried out a power-spectrum analysis of solar nuclear gamma-ray (NGR) flares observed by SMM and HINOTORI satellites. The solar NGR flares show a periodicity of 152 days, confirming the existence of a 152–158 days periodicity in the occurrence of solar activity phenomena and also indicating that the NGR flares are a separate class of solar flares. The power-spectrum analysis of the daily sunspot areas on the Sun for the period 1980–1982 shows a peak around 159 days while sunspot number data do not show any periodicity (Verma and Joshi, 1987). Therefore, only sunspot area data should be treated as an indicator of solar activity and not the daily sunspot number data.     

Coronal rotation dependence on the solar cycle phase

A study of the green corona rotation rate, during the period 1970–1974, confirms that the differential rotation degree varies systematically through a solar cycle and that the corona rotates in an almost rigid manner before sunspot minimum. During the first two years, 1970–1971, the differential rotation degree, characteristic of high solar activity periods is detected. While during the years of declining activity, 1972–1974, a drastic decrease of the differential rotation degree occurs and the green corona rotates almost rigidly, as the coronal holes observed in the same period. These conclusions are valid only for the rotation of coronal features with lifetime of at least one solar rotation.     

Observation of hysteresis between solar activity indicators andp-mode frequency shifts for solar cycle 22

Using intermediate degreep-mode frequency data sets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic activity indicators show a &amp;#x201C;hysteresis&amp;#x201D; phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle while for radiative indices, the separation between the paths are well within the error limits.     

A forecast of solar activity for the 21st solar cycle

Predicted values of some main indices of solar activity for the 21st solar cycle are given. The epoch of maximum of solar activity has been placed in 1980.8±0.1. The predicted peak values of the relative sunspot numbers published by other authors are also given.     

Structure of the maximum phase of solar cycles 21 and 22

A distinctive peak and gap structure in a number of solar indices was observed in the maximum phase of solar cycles 21 and 22. The effect became even more prominent after separating the northern and southern solar hemispheres. In cycle 21 the multi-peaked structures observed in the two solar hemispheres were not synchronous and their sum resulted in the rather shallow two-peaked solar maximum for the parameters taken over the whole solar disk. In cycle 22 there were only double peaks in each hemisphere which were rather synchronous. Examination of solar activity in the northern and southern hemispheres has shown that the structured maximum appears to be due to the superposition of two quasi-oscillating processes with characteristic time-scales of 11 years and of 1–3 years (quasi-biennial oscillations). The absolute amplitude of the quasi-biennial oscillations depends on the 11-year cycle phase and reaches its maximum at the maximum of the 11-year cycle. This explains the occurrence of a double- or triple-peak structure in the solar maximum phase.     

Activity cycle of solar filaments

Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity, namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of α = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17).     

Statistical behavior of sunspot groups on the solar disk

In the present study we have produced a diagram of the latitude distribution of sunspot groups from the year 1874 through 1999 and examined statistical characteristics of the mean latitude of sunspot groups. The reliability of the observed data set prior to solar cycle 19 is found quite low as compared with that of the data set observed after cycle 19. A correlation is found between maximum latitude at which first sunspot groups of a new cycle appear and the maximum solar activity of the cycle. It is inferred that solar magnetic activity during the early part of an extended solar cycle may contain some information about the strength of forthcoming solar cycle. A formula is given to describe latitude change of sunspot groups with time during an extended solar cycle. The latitude-migration velocity is found to be largest at the beginning of solar cycle and decreases with time as the cycle progresses with a mean migration velocity of about 1.61° per year.     

A search for solar neutrons during solar flares

The upper limit on the solar neutron flux from 1–20 MeV has been measured, by a neutron detector on the OGO-6 satellite, to be less than 5 × 10^–2 n cm^–2 s^–1 at the 95% confidence level for several flares including two flares of importance 3B and a solar proton event of importance 3B. The measurements are consistent with the models proposed by Lingenfelter (1969) and by Lingenfelter and Ramaty (1967) for solar neutron production during solar flares. The implied upper limit on the flux of 2.2 MeV solar gamma rays is about the same as the 2.2 MeV flux observed by Chupp et al. (1973).     

Ozone and temperature fluctuations in the strato-mesosphere with solar activity

The response of the stratosphere and lower mesosphere to quasi-eleven-year solar activity cycle (indicated by sunspot variations) is studied by using temperature data obtained from rockets which are mostly based on datasonde system throughout the decade 1969–1978. It is suggested that the solar trace is evident at wintertime in the strato-mesosphere over low and middle latitudes. At summertime in the lower mesosphere over high latitudes the solar trace is absent. During springtime the solar signal appears over low latitudes and diminishes to the middle and high latitudes. The reverse occurs at falltime. The observed stratospheric temperature and ozone variations during the solar activity cycle are possibly within model calculations of UV and solar particle enhancements at solar maximum.     

The polarization of solar radio emission at 74 MHz: May 18–26, 1967

The passage of McMath plage region 8818 over the visible solar disk resulted in extensive meter-wavelength activity of spectral types I, II, III and IV. The activity at 74 MHz and its polarization have been observed with a narrow-band (10 kHz) timesharing radio polarimeter. Newly adopted data recording and processing techniques have enabled time-histories of the polarization characteristics of the solar emission to be obtained with a time resolution of 1/4 second. The polarization patterns for all the major activity in the May 18–26 period are described. They exhibit considerable variety in the degree and ellipticity of the polarization observed during both short-lived bursts and long-enduring periods of activity. Both simple and complex patterns were seen when changes in the sense of polarization of the solar emission occurred. Methods used to determine the polarization characteristics of the solar emission in the presence of galactic emission and to resolve the complexities of the solar emission itself are illustrated.     

Empirical estimate of p-mode frequency shift for solar cycle 23

We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22. These relations are applied to estimate the change in mean frequency for the cycle 21 and 23. A remarkable agreement between the calculated and observed frequency shifts for the ascending phase of cycle 23, indicates that the derived relations are independent of epoch and do not change significantly from cycle to cycle. We propose that these relations could be used to estimate the shift in p-mode frequencies for past, present and future solar activity cycles, if the solar activity index is known. The maximum frequency shift for cycle 23 is estimated to be 265±90 nHz, corresponding to a predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number 118.1±35.     

Long-term modulation of the coronal index of solar activity

Monthly mean values of the coronal index of solar activity and other solar indices are analyzed for the period 1965–1997 covering three solar cycles. The coronal index is based upon the total irradiance of the coronal 530.3 nm green line from observations at five stations. The significant correlation of this index with the sunspot number and the number of the grouped solar flares have led to an analytical expression which can reproduce the coronal index of solar activity as a function of these parameters. This expression well explains the existence of the two maxima during the solar cycles taking into account the evolution of the magnetic field that can be expressed by a sinusoidal term with a 6-year period. The agreement between observed and calculated values of the coronal index on a monthly basis is high enough and reaches the value of 92%. It is concluded that the coronal index can be used as a representative index of solar activity in order to be correlated with different periodic solar–terrestrial phenomena useful for space weather studies.     

Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34 (2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35.     

Evidence for a cosmic ray gradient perpendicular to the solar equatorial plane

A study has been made of the yearly variation of the cosmic ray intensity for the years 1961–67 inclusive using pressure corrected neutron monitor data from both hemispheres to minimize seasonal meteorological effects. An annual wave is found in the data with an amplitude which varied between 0.2 and 1.0 per cent during the period but which had a sensibly constant phase, the time of maximum being in March. These observations, which are shown to be consistent with the observed heliolatitude distribution of coronal 5303Å emission, indicate the existence of a southerly directed asymmetrical gradient of up to 8 per cent perpendicular to the solar equatorial plane. It is found that the cosmic ray intensity at the Earth is controlled by the solar activity in a narrow band of heliolatitudes ±10° or ±20° centred at the heliolatitude of the Earth. Also, the results indicate that there was a phase lag of 1 ± 1 month between solar activity and the resulting changes in the cosmic ray intensity at the Earth giving a radius for the modulating region of ? 10 A.U. during the period of low solar activity considered.     

Flare-associated high-speed solar plasma streams

Characteristics of flare-associated high-speed solar plasma streams are investigated using measurements from space probes and Earth-orbiting spacecraft for the period 1964–1982. The maximum observed velocity (V _m) of these streams range from 400 to 850 km s^–1} with peak probability for 600 km s^–1}. These remain for the period of 1–10 days with the peak occurrence 3 days. The difference between the pre-stream velocity (V ₀) and the maximum velocity (V _m) of any high-speed stream serves as the measure of its intensity. For about 60% of the flare associated streams, (V _m-V ₀) is well in excess of 200 km s^–1} and in some cases becomes as large as 450 km s^–1}. The yearly percentage occurrence, total duration and the product of mean (V _m - V ₀) with total duration of the high-speed streams during the year correlates well with solar activity, e.g., maximum during high solar activity period and minimum during low solar activity. The study suggests that presence of sunspots plays a significant role in the generation of flare associated high-speed solar streams.     

Geo-effectiveness of solar wind extremes

Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s^-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and-ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s^-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.     

Exospheric solar wind charge exchange as seen by XMM‐Newton

We review a selection of recent papers describing solar wind charge exchange emission occurring in the Earth's exosphere as seen by the X‐ray observatory XMM‐Newton. We discuss the detection of this emission, the occurrence with respect to the solar cycle and solar activity, and various spectral signatures observed. We also describe a model developed to predict the X‐ray signal from exospheric charge exchange as would be detected by XMM‐Newton, given the upstream solar wind conditions obtained from in situ solar wind monitors (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)