变形的经向环流变化方程及其在诊断阻塞高压形成中的应用

本文推导出可以用来讨论大尺度扰动强迫对平均经圈环流作用的变形平均经圈环流变化方程，并利用此方程对北半球冬季4次阻塞高压的形成进行了诊断分析。分析结果表明:由于波动对经圈环流的强迫作用，使高压脊的西部南风加强，而东部北风加强，从而有利于阻塞高压的形成。文中还分别分析了瞬变波及其低频瞬变波部分在阻塞高压形成中对经圈环流的强迫作用，并讨论了低频瞬变波强迫在太平洋和大西洋地区阻塞高压形成的地域差别。     

青藏高原大地形对冷涌作用的理论研究

本文从包含大地形效应的线性浅水波方程组出发,考虑青藏高原大地形为由西向东等科率倾斜,导得两类重力波解,一类是两个高频重力惯性波解,另一类是由地形激发的低频地形重力波解。后者与Kelvin波有某些类似之处。它们分别类似于数值试验所得冷锋迅速南下和冷涌强风速中心沿青藏高原大地形东侧边缘较慢向南传播的重力波。特别当无地形时,则低频波消失,仍有高频波。还求得了重力波波射线的传播路径为次摆线方程,这与数值试验所得冷涌强风速中心环绕青藏高原大地形东侧边缘的弧形路径颇为一致。且沿大地形下游沿海地区可能存在地形重力波波导管。     

中纬度地形影响大尺度运动简化方程及其物理过程的初步分析

将σ-坐标的运动方程组进行尺度分析,考虑水平尺度为103公里的系统,得到一组封闭的简化方程组。在涡度方程中,凸起的地形脊对流场的影响和一固定的气旋式流场相当;在热力学方程中和一固定的高温区相当。因此,引入了地形相当涡度和地形相当温度的概念来近似表示这种影响。当把运动分解为平流变化和调整变化的相互作用来考察,并且平均气流和切变气流均为西风时,调整变化所造成的垂直运动和边界条件的强迫作用相反,有利于保持大尺度运动的准水平性。但在某些特殊条件下,调整变化可和边界的强迫作用相一致,可进一步加强边界条件的影响。     

地形坡度和越赤道大尺度低空气流

本文用取β近似的简化的正压线性方程研究地形坡度和越赤道大尺度低空气流的关系。结果表明:如大尺度强迫场用符合实际的解析表达式表示,则消元后方程的齐次部分类似于waber方程,因此解和非齐次项都可用Hermite函数展开。这样得到的精确解基本上能表示低空平均气流中强风带和流场形势的特点;并且地形坡度和这些特点特别是和风速大小有关。还对非齐次weber方程在较一般的源函数分布和边界条件下,对不同地形坡度求了数值解,以便研究这种情况下地形坡度和平均风场的关系.      

A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF OROGRAPHIC FACTORS

Based on the barotropic primitive equation in the polar coordinate system and the appropriate assumption, we obtained the mathematical equation of orographic forcing on unit mass air parcel. With the consideration of the frictional stress of the sea and land, supposing that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure is circular, a set of equations are derived, which describe the impact of orographic slope error, the central pressure error and position error of tropical cyclones on the wind field in the tropical cyclone. Typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above interpretation method. The results show that the orographic slope, the frictional coefficient, the intensity and position of the cyclone are the important factors which have great influence on the interpretation of wind information about tropical cyclones. The dynamic interpretation method gives very good results, especially for the coastal area. It is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field in tropical cyclones.     

平流层垂直运动的计算方法与1958年1月平流层热源热汇的分布

本文利用平流层平均温压场的资料,用定常情况下的热力方程计算了1958年1月份北半球平流层各层(10—200毫巴)的冷热源分布。发现平流层中层的冷热源分布和流场一样,是以波数为1,2的超长波系统占优势的。文中还讨论了这些大尺度冷热源的地理分布以及它们和气压系统相互配置的关系。 为了计算平流层中与垂直运动相平衡的加热分量,本文提出了一个把涡度方程自大气顶向下逐层积分的计算垂直运动的新方法。结果证明,这种计算方法对于计算平流层的垂直运动是比较适宜的。     

CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF OLR OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WITH ITS POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Using the 1979-2009 NCEP/NACR reanalysis data and precipitation records in East China, research is performed of the climatological features of low-frequency oscillation (LFO) in OLR over the Maritime Continent (MC) as well as their associations with precipitation disturbance in the eastern part of China. Results suggest that in the MC there is significant climatological low-frequency oscillation (CLFO) in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), with the intraseasonal oscillation (30-60 days) being the strongest for April-September, and the MC acting as a high-value region of percentage contributions of low-frequency OLR variance. On the low-frequency time scale there occur four events of more intense active OLR during this time interval. In the January-April (May-August) phase, MC convection is relatively weak (vigorous). The CLFO makes pronounced eastward displacement at tropics, with phase propagation seen longitudinally, too. There occur low-frequency disturbance circulations similar to the EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection, starting from the MC via the South China Sea and the Philippines to the Yangtze valley of China. At different phases, the variation in the low-frequency circulations and heating fields shows that the rainfall disturbance in eastern China is likely to be under possible effects of the CLFO from the MC in April-September, and the low-frequency heating variation exhibits a meridional pattern as an EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection. As the OLR CLFO is in a peak (valley) phase the low-level divergence or convergence with the reversal at high levels over the MC is related to relatively feeble (robust) low frequency convection, thereby exciting an EAP or P-J wavetrain from the MC to the Sea of Japan. At the higher levels, the South-Asian high is eastward (westward) of normal due to effects of low-frequency cyclones (anticyclones), resulting in less (more) rainfall in the Jiangnan (areas in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze and to the south of the river) and Hetao (the Great Bend of Yellow River) areas, and increased (decreased) rainfall in SW China, Qinghai Plateau and Gansu. At the conversion phases, low-frequency convection becomes more active in parts of the MC, consequently exciting low-frequency wavetrain of cyclones-anticyclones-cyclones at low levels, making the South-Asian high southward of the mean, so that strong convergent zones emerge in the upper and middle Yangtze basins and Jilin of NE China, responsible for plentiful precipitation there in sharp contrast to the rainfall over the band between the Yellow and Huaihe Rivers and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. These results help understand in depth the climatological LFO characteristics and the phase-locked feature, thereby further improving our understanding of the causes of rainfall disturbances in different parts of the country.     

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Using 1975-1993 (with 1978 missing) data of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), characteristics of seasonal variation of low-frequency oscillations in the South China Sea and its relation to the establishment and activity of the summer monsoon there are studied. As is shown in the result, the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea is much stronger in the period of summer monsoon than in that of winter monsoon and the summer monsoon there usually begins to set up in a negative phase of the first significant low-frequency oscillation for the early summer. The study also reveals that the circulation for the low-frequency oscillation during the summer monsoon in the Sea is embodied as north-south fluctuations of the ITCZ and east-west shifts of western ridge point of the West Pacific subtropical high, suggesting close correlation between the low-frequency oscillation and the active and break (decay) of the South China Sea monsoon. In the meantime. the work illustrates how the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea are superimposed with the seasonal variation of the general circulation. so that the summer inonsoon covers the establishment of the I^st, intensification of the 2^nd and 3^rd the low-frequency oscillations and decay of the 4^th oscillation.     

Streamwise vorticity equation

l.IntroductionTheverticalcomPOnentofthevorticityisthedominantpartinthelarge-scalesystems,therefore,itisgoodenoughtoonlyconsidertheverticalcomPOnentofthevorticityinthevorticityequationforstudyinglarge-scalesystems.Withtheapproximationthatstreamlinesaremainlyquasi-horizontalincontrasttotheirverticalcomponents,hence,thecomPOnentofabsolutevorticityalongthestreamline,so-calledsecondaryvorticity,isverysmallandnearlyomitted.ButinthemesoscaleandsmaIl-scalesystems,especiallyinsmall-scalesys-tems,ver…     

对边界层湍流系数日变化的探讨

本文根据摩擦平衡方程,导出了湍流交换系数K(z)的表达式,然后借助于K(z)的有限差分式,直接应用双经纬仪实测风资料,计算了该地Ekman层中湍流交换系数K(z)。计算和分析的结果如下:(1)Ekman层中的湍流交换系数具有显著的日变化特征,日变曲线的基本形式呈双峰双谷型,就整个Ekman层的平均而言,K的平均扰动值约为K的四倍。(2)K的日变规律同气温、位温变化的平均趋势基本一致。(3)K的日变程同风速的涨落有关,例如,黄昏显著的风速涨落,对应于K廊线的特定日变程。其中特别有趣的是:夜间平均风速的变化同平均K的变化趋势完全一致,但二者在白天的变化趋势恰恰相反。这种根据实溅风资料得到的微妙关系,客观地揭示出Ekman层中风速日变化的物理本质,那就是湍流混合强度的日变化。本文还给出了若干个典型的实例。      

冬季高度场主分量与正压能量转换的关系

对观测的34年北半球冬季500hPa月平均位势高度场作了经验正交函数分析,对前5个主分量与正压能量转换过程之间的关系作了统计分析。结果表明基本气流向低频扰动的正压能量转换,有利于主分量结构类型的低频环流异常的产生和维持,这一关系是明确的和显著的。     

近50年我国持续性暴雨的统计分析及其大尺度环流背景

利用中国气象局发布的《区域性重要过程检测和评价业务规定》中对省级区域性暴雨过程的统计数据,NOAA 气候预测中心降水、向外长波辐射（OLR）资料以及ERA-Interim再分析资料,探讨了10—20 d和30—60 d两类低频振荡对华南前汛期持续性暴雨的相对重要性,并基于尺度分离的水汽方程和垂直速度方程诊断了相关物理机制。结果表明,10—20 d准双周振荡对暴雨强度的影响较为显著,而30—60 d季节内振荡与暴雨持续时间相关较高,表明持续性暴雨事件与低频降水的发生和演变关系密切。通过对低频降水的热力和动力过程诊断,发现10—20 d低频降水的水汽来源主要为水汽平流过程,而导致水汽平流正距平的主要原因是10—20 d风场和背景水汽场的相互作用;而对于30—60 d低频降水而言,水汽平流和水汽辐合均为扰动水汽的累积做正贡献,但其中水汽平流更加重要,其主要来源于平均风场和30—60 d水汽场的相互作用。有利于两类低频降水发生的动力条件,即垂直上升运动,其主要源于平均风场和扰动涡度场相互作用引发的垂直涡度平流梯度。以上结果显示,提高模式中低频振荡与季节平均状态尺度相互作用的刻画能力,是改进预报持续性暴雨的关键。

     

涡旋相关法测定湍流通量偏低的研究

针对野外实验所发现的不同观测法测定地表能通量不平衡问题,进行了均匀加热大气边界层的大涡模拟实验.用模拟的湍流风、温度和湿度涨落的时间序列证实,对流边界层低频涡普遍存在,并经常以一簇一簇热泡的形式出现.风速较小时,有限时长的取样不足以捕捉低频涡的贡献,可造成涡旋相关法测量的统计量异常偏低.仿照涡旋相关法的步骤进行数据处理发现,经去除平均或趋势计算的温度和湿度通量偏低程度在边界层下部随观测高度的增高而显著,其中尤以湿度通量为甚.其结果在一定程度上可以解释低风速条件下地表能通量测量的不闭合问题,但是尚不能完全解释诸如青藏高原实验出现的严重不闭合.文中对此作了探讨性的讨论.     

近百年长江下游作物生长季冷暖的变化与大型环流的振动

本文运用上海1373—1982年110年气温资料,配合1871—1980年110年月平均海平面气压场资料,分析了长江下游作物生长季冷暖的长期变化以及与之关联的大型环流变化特征。发现最近百余年里,年、季(代表月份)和关键旬的平均气温普遍经历了从偏冷期转为偏暖期约80—100年周期的振动,转折发生在本世纪20年代末、30年代初。70年代前后有转向偏冷期的趋势。这类低频振动与大型环流活动的低频振动有密切关联,主要表现在冬季亚洲大陆冷高压主体偏东和阿留申低压偏弱时期,相应夏季青藏高原热低压偏弱时期,对应长江下游偏冷期;反之,则对应偏暖期。讨论了生长季冷暖变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响。     

丘陵山区地面热平衡场数值模拟的初步探讨

本文根据丘陵山区地形参数(平均坡度、坡向及地形遮蔽角)的数值模拟结果,以及在完成山区地面辐射场计算的基础上,从地表能量平衡方程出发,初步建立起零维地表能量平衡模式,并利用考察资料和附近气象站资料,对大别山南段赵公岭山区3.0×3.5km~2范围内100m网格点进行计算,首次绘制出热平衡各分量在该山区的分布图。结果表明,山区地面热平衡场与地形要素配合较好,显示出地形条件的决定性作用。     

副热带高压季节性北跳的诊断研究

用ＣＥＯＦ、功率谱，带通滤波等方法的１９８８年，１９９１年５￣７月逐日２．５°×２．５°５００ｈＰａ位势高度场资料对北半球副絷带高压季节性北跳进行了诊断研究，得出：副热带高压季节性北跳及西传是全球现象；副高发生季节性跳动的源主要位于阿拉海地区和中太平洋地区，汇主要位于东太平洋地区；副高的季节性跳动主要是扰动场的作用，低频振荡在副高的季节性跳动及西传中起举足轻重的作用，各年副高季节性跳动的差异是扰源     

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

1INTRODUCTIONErrorsofnumericalforecastingcomprisethoseintheinitialvalue,modelandcomputationandthefirstkindoferrorbecomesmoreandmoreoutstandingwiththeon-goingdevelopmentofcomputersandnumericalmodels.Subjecttoavailableobservationmeans,therealatmosphereisanythingbutapproximatelymeasured.Meanwhile,oneshouldpayattentiontothepossibility,assuggestedbyLorenz[1],thatanyslightdifferencesduringtheinitialstatemayleadtoresultsthatturnouttobetotallydissimilarfromwhatwouldbeexpectedotherwise,asfarasdefi…     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF EFFECT OF SSTA OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION IN THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDE

Numerical experiments on forcing dissipation and heating response of dipole (unipole) are carried out using global spectral models with quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations. For each experiment model integration is run for 90 days on the condition of three-wave quasi-resonance. The results are given as follows: Under the effects of dipole (unipole) forcing source and basic flow intensity, there exist strong interactions among the three planetary waves and quasi-biweekly and intraseasonal oscillation of the three planetary waves. In the meantime, the changes in the intensity of dipole or unipole forcing source and basic flow have different frequency modulation effects on LFO in the middle and higher latitudes. The results of the stream function field of three quasi-resonant waves evolving with time confirm that the low-frequency oscillation exists in extratropical latitude.     

2010年华南前汛期持续性降水异常与准双周振荡

利用中国台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP-DOE逐日再分析资料,分析了2010年华南汛期降水异常的低频特征及大气环流的影响。结果表明,2010年华南汛期降水异常呈显著的低频振荡特征,其中前汛期以10~20天振荡（准双周振荡）为主,后汛期以20~50天振荡（季节内振荡）为主。重点讨论了准双周尺度上前汛期持续性降水异常与中高纬和热带地区大气低频振荡的关系。中高纬地区的低频环流可通过Rossby波能量沿着低频遥相关波列的频散影响华南低频环流的变化。波活动通量分析显示,西西伯利亚作为Rossby波源,其波能量沿着横跨欧亚大陆的低频遥相关波列向我国东部地区频散,引起该地扰动加强,从而引起华南低频环流及垂直运动的变化进而造成华南降水的异常。热带东印度洋的准双周振荡是影响华南前汛期降水的另一低频来源。当赤道东印度洋对流旺盛（抑制）,其上空为强上升（下沉）气流,低层辐合（辐散）高层辐散（辐合）,而华南上空盛行下沉（上升）运动,不利于（有利于）华南降水。来自中高纬和低纬的低频信号的叠加并配合低频水汽输送共同影响了华南环流异常的低频变化,从而引起华南的低频降水异常,有利于华南持续性降水异常的发生。