印尼苏门答腊三次大地震与中国珠江洪水关系的研究

本文研究印尼苏门答腊大地震与中国珠江流域大洪水之间的关系\[1\].印尼苏门答腊以南的板块俯冲带,是强烈地震活跃地区.近200年来发生3次大地震：1833年11月24日8.7级地震、1861年2月21日8.5级地震和2004年12月26日Mw9.3级地震.每次地震后,第二年都在中国华南珠江流域发生巨灾.巨大地震产生宽阔的地震破裂带,引起地壳中放出携热水汽.由于地下裂隙的复杂性和不畅性,放气效应到达地表可滞后于地震断续达一年以上.排出的水汽被搭载在西南气流上到达华南地区.     

China's Transboundary Groundwater Cooperation in the Context of Emerging Transboundary Aquifer Law

China shares more than 20 transboundary aquifers with its coaquifer states, but they have not exploited their transboundary groundwater resources, and these resources have not been governed by any international agreements. Given the close interaction between surface water and groundwater, and the growing demands for transboundary groundwater in China and its coaquifer states, there is increasing necessity for these countries to undertake international cooperation on this issue. This article overviews China's transboundary aquifers, reviews the duty to cooperate on China's transboundary groundwater as well as the emerging transboundary aquifer law. It concludes by providing some proposals on international cooperation in this context, based on the two theories of international water law—limited territorial sovereignty and common interests, taking into account the practicability of China's cooperation with its coaquifer states. The author suggests that China cooperates with its coaquifer states through such means as the exchange of data and information, joint monitoring, the conclusion of bilateral or multilateral aquifer agreements, the establishment of joint management mechanisms, and international technical cooperation.     

Conflict and cooperation along international waterways

There are 261 international rivers, covering almost one half of the total land surface of the globe and untold numbers of shared aquifers. Water has been a cause of political tensions between Arabs and Israelis, Indians and Bangladeshis, Americans and Mexicans, and all ten riparian states of the Nile river. Water is the only scarce resource for which there is no substitute, over which there is poorly developed international law and the need for which is overwhelming, constant and immediate. As a consequence, `water' and `war' are two topics being assessed together with increasing frequency. This paper investigates the reality of historic water conflict and draws lessons for the plausibility of future `water wars'. The datasets of conflict are explored for those related to water — only seven minor skirmishes are found in this century; no war has ever been fought over water. In contrast, 145 water-related treaties were signed in the same period. These treaties, collected and catalogued in a computerized database along with relevant notes from negotiators, are assessed for patterns of conflict resolution. War over water seems neither strategically rational, hydrographically effective, nor economically viable. Shared interests along a waterway seem to consistently outweigh water's conflict-inducing characteristics. Furthermore, once cooperative water regimes are established through treaty, they turn out to be impressively resilient over time, even between otherwise hostile riparians and even as conflict is waged over other issues. These patterns suggest that the more valuable lesson of international water is as a resources whose characteristics tend to induce cooperation and incite violence only in the exception.     

SZW-1A型数字式温度计（V2004）通讯故障诊断及排除

基于SZW．1A型数字式温度计（V2004）的维护管理经验和仪器组成,对SZW．1A型数字式温度计（V2004）的通讯故障原因进行了研究。结果表明,导致SZW-1A型数字式温度计（V2004）通讯故障的主要原因有网络链路故障、网络通讯接口故障和仪器主机故障3大类。针对SZW-1A型数字式温度计（V2004）常见非网络链路通讯故障的判定提出了一套诊断流程,并提出了该型号数字式温度计常见通讯故障的排除方法。这些故障的排除方法,对和SZW-1A型数字式温度计（V2004）有类似硬件组成的SWY-1A型水位仪、SWY-Ⅱ型水位仪、SWDW-1型水位地温综合观测仪等“十五”流体观测仪器的维护,有一定参考意义。     

Trends in rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin: 1964–2003

Most of the water from the Nile originates in Ethiopia but there is no agreement on how land degradation or climate change affects the future flow in downstream countries. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future conditions by analysing historical trends. During the period 1964–2003, the average monthly basin‐wide precipitation and monthly discharge data were collected and analysed statistically for two stations in the upper 30% of the Blue Nile Basin and monthly and 10‐day discharge data of one station at the Sudan–Ethiopia border. A rainfall–runoff model examined the causes for observed trends. The results show that, while there was no significant trend in the seasonal and annual basin‐wide average rainfall, significant increases in discharge during the long rainy season (June to September) were observed at all three stations. In the upper Blue Nile, the short rainy season flow (March to May) increased, while the dry season flow (October to February) stayed the same. At the Sudan border, the dry season flow decreased significantly with no change in the short rainy season flow. The difference in response was likely due to the construction of weir in the 1990s at the Lake Tana outlet that affected the upper Blue Nile discharge significantly but affected less than 10% of the discharge at the Sudan border. The rainfall–runoff model reproduced the observed trends, assuming that an additional 10% of the hillsides were eroded in the 40‐year time span and generated overland flow instead of interflow and base flow. Models concerning future trends in the Nile cannot assume that the landscape runoff processes will remain static. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water in Kazakhstan,a key in Central Asian water management

Central Asia is one of the regions with the highest probability of conflicts over water. Kazakhstan is the main Central Asian economic power and therefore it is important to understand how the country’s water management policy is influencing water availability in the other Central Asian states. Already, the Central Asian economies are developing under increasing water deficiency, resulting in developmental problems. The main reasons for this are increasing political tensions and worsening ecological and socio-economic conditions. Kazakhstan was the first country in Central Asia to develop the pre-requisites for a transition towards integrated water resources management (IWRM). Therefore, Kazakhstan has potential to lead the development of transboundary water integration between all Central Asian states. A scenario for successful regional cooperation on water management in Central Asia involves establishing legal mechanisms for water management following international water law, assistance by international agencies and donors, and integrated social, economic and environmental methodology.     

Theoretical estimates for the influence of Lake Victoria on flows in the upper White Nile

Abstract

A theoretical model is described for estimating the impacts of changes in Lake Victoria levels on river flows, lake levels and swamp areas in the upper White Nile basin. The basis of the model is to represent the main river channel by a series of interconnected lakes and swamps, whose water balances are described by differential equations relating outflows to levels, areas and the net basin supply at each point. Closed form solutions are obtained for two situations: (a) a long-term change in the mean level of Lake Victoria, and (b) a return to equilibrium levels following an initial disturbance in Lake Victoria levels. A simple model for the net basin supply to Lake Victoria is also used to relate these changes in levels to changes in climate and runoff in the basin. The results illustrate the extreme sensitivity of White Nile flows to changes in Lake Victoria levels and outflows, and in particular to variations in the direct rainfall on the lake surface. Estimates are also presented for the various time scales and time delays which affect the White Nile system.     

Stochastic Forecasting Models of the Monthly Streamflow for the Blue Nile at Eldiem Station

Egypt is almost totally dependent on the River Nile for satisfying about 95% of its water requirements. The River Nile has three main tributaries: White Nile, Blue Nile, and River Atbara. The Blue Nile contributes about 60% of total annual flow reached the River Nile at Aswan High Dam. The goal of this research is to develop a reliable stochastic model for the monthly streamflow of the Blue Nile at Eldiem station, where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is currently under construction with a storage capacity of about 74 billion m³. The developed model may help to carry out a reliable study on the filling scenarios of GERD reservoir and to minimize its expected negative side effects on Sudan and Egypt. The linear models: Deseasonalized AutoRegressive Moving Average (DARMA) model, Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average (PARMA) model and Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model; and the nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model are selected for modeling monthly streamflow at Eldiem station. The performance of various models during calibration and validation were evaluated using the statistical indices: Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and coefficient of determination (R2) which indicate the strength of fitting between observed and forecasted values. The results show that the performance of the nonlinear model (ANN) was much better than all investigated linear models (DARMA, PARMA and SARIMA) in forecasting the monthly flow discharges at Eldiem station.     

Tsunami and its Hazard in the Indian and Pacific Oceans: Introduction

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented.     

Institutional,regulatory, and managerial aspects of the development of transboundary water bodies and streams in Russia

The number of international agreements on transboundary water bodies and streams was found to increase rapidly in the late XX and early XXI century. The institutional and regulatory conditions required for solving the problems of international rivers and lakes are discussed. A system of governmental bodies in Russia, dealing with the use and protection of transboundary water bodies and streams is described. The international cooperation of Russia in the management of transboundary water bodies and streams is shown.     

Present stage of recent crustal movements and seismicity within Greater Cairo area, Egypt

Greater Cairo and the Nile Delta are considered very important, high-density population areas. The subject of the research work is dealing with recent crustal movements and its relation to seismicity and tectonics setting. A Global Positioning System (GPS) network consisting of 11 benchmarks covering Greater Cairo and the southern part of the Nile Delta was established in 1996. Different campaigns surveyed the network. In this study, we used ten measurements collected during the period from 2004 to 2010. The data were processed using Bernese 5.0 software to derive velocity vectors and principal components of crustal strains. The horizontal velocity varies in average between 3 and 6 mm per year across the network. Rate of the accumulated strains in the southern part of Greater Cairo varies from low to moderate. The low strain rates and low level of earthquakes occurrence in the present interval in the Nile Delta area indicated that the rate of the deformation in this area is small. The result from coupling GPS and seismic data indicates that the southern part of the area is seismo-active area when compared with the other parts in the network areas. The paper gives information about the present state of the recent crustal movements within Greater Cairo area to understand the geodynamics of that area. This study is an attempt to build a basis for further development of seismic catastrophic risk management models to reduce a risk of large catastrophic losses within the important area.     

渭河盆地断裂活动速率的粒子群算法反演

渭河盆地是我国典型的断陷盆地,是中国大陆地裂缝活动、地面沉降活动最剧烈的地区之一.本文利用2004-2007年间的GPS数据,采用粒子群算法与位错理论模型相结合,对渭河盆地主要断裂的三维滑动速率进行了反演计算分析.结果表明:(1)断裂活动性质与地质测量方法获得的结果基本一致:除韩城—华县断裂以张裂为主外,渭河盆地主要断裂均以正倾滑为主,并具有走滑特征,呈张裂的运动趋势;(2)从滑动速率来看,秦岭北侧大断裂速率最大,可达4.5 mm/a.固关—宝鸡断裂活动最小,活动速率仅为1 mm/a左右;(3)在趋势上与现有的地质资料基本一致,以EW向断裂活动最强,NE方向较强,而NW方向较弱,并且分布上呈现南强北弱的特征.     

A Preliminary study on the seismic conceptual design

The seismic conceptual design is an essential part of seismic design codes. It points out that the term "seismic conceptual design" should imply three aspects,i.e.,the given concept itself,the specific provisions related to the given concept and the designing following the provisions. Seismic conceptual design can be classified into two categories: the strict or traditional seismic conceptual design and the generalized seismic conceptual design. The authors are trying to define for both conceptual designs their connotations and study their characteristics,in particular,the differences between them. Authors emphasize that both conceptual designs sound very close,however,their differences are apparent. The strict conceptual designs are usually worked out directly from engineering practice and/or lessons learnt from earthquake damage,while the generalized conceptual designs are resulted in a series of visions aiming to realize the general objectives of the seismic codes. The strict conceptual designs,(traditional conceptual designs) are indispensable elements of seismic codes in assuring designed structures safer and the generalized conceptual designs are playing key roles in directing to a more advanced and effective seismic codes.     

Institutions for management of transboundary water resources: their nature,characteristics and shortcomings

This paper examines the evolution structure and characteristics of the management systems of 12 transboundary river basins: The Mekong, Indus, Ganges–Brahmaputra, the Nile, Jordan, Danube, Elbe, Rio Grande and Colorado, Rio de la Plata, Senegal and Niger. The paper presents the legal principles which guide the legal regime of the studied rivers, particularly the principle of equitable use of transboundary water resources and the obligation not to cause harm in the management of transboundary water resources. The practice of management in the abovementioned rivers is divided into three categories:(a) Treaties and agreements stopping short of allocating water between riparian states such as free navigation treaties or institutions which were established for a sole purpose such as combating pollution (Elbe, Danube, Rhine).(b) Treaties and agreements allocating water between states (the Indus, Nile, Ganges, Jordan).(c) Agreements for joint management of internationally shared waters (Colorado and Rio Grande, Mekong, Senegal and Niger).Some of the institutions discussed in this paper have evolved only after a long conflict (Indus, Ganges, Jordan) and that there is a danger of adopting institutions for only a portion of a river basin (Mekong, Nile). The success of institutions which were founded on basin-wide joint management lie in their territorial coverage and broad functional frameworks. These institutions also reflect, in the best way, the current legal norms in the management of transboundary water resources.     

“Playing the game”, identity and perception-of-the-other in water cooperation in the Jordan River Basin

ABSTRACT

The concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has enjoyed immense popularity and thus has been the preferred approach for river basin management. IWRM generally has a strong focus on rational choice, based on a technocratic conceptual interpretation of the conventional hydrological cycle. However, uncritical acceptance of IWRM runs the risk of blinding policy makers and academics for the defining impact of context, socio-cultural, political, historical and cognitive dimensions in water cooperation. Human behaviour in water cooperation was tested and observed during eight experiments with the Jordan River Basin Boardgame Exercise (JRBBE) played with respondent groups from inside and outside the Jordan River Basin. The experiments consisted of one control group outside the basin and seven respondent groups both outside and inside the basin. This article argues that the role of identities, beliefs and perception-of-the-other, should be taken more into account in order to develop successful and socio-political sustainable river basin management.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Basic data on the hydrology of Lakes Ohrid and Prespa

This paper deals with hydrological analyses of Lakes Ohrid and Prespa. The watersheds and the lakes themselves are shared by three countries: Albania, Greece and Macedonia. As a result of insufficient interstate scientific cooperation and inexistence of data exchange, the lakes and their watersheds are not fully investigated regarding hydrology and hydrogeology. This paper represents a first attempt at a complete hydrological analysis based on data from the Macedonian side. This is not considered to be a particular deficiency, because over 60% of the lakes' watersheds and the lakes themselves belong to Macedonia, where a great number of reliable and long‐term data series of hydrometeorological observations exist. The Prespa lakes do not have surface outflow and are connected with Lake Ohrid by underground karst conduits. Because of this, from the hydrological point of view, the lakes and their watersheds cannot be analysed separately. The changes of the regime of the air temperature and the rainfall distribution have been investigated in this report. An increase of the maximum and decrease of the minimum annual air temperatures, as well as a decrease of annual precipitation sums has been determined. Also, a statistically significant descending trend of water level in both lakes has been confirmed, with a statement that the water level decrease in Lake Prespa is extremely alarming. From 1985 to 1995 the water level in Lake Prespa has dropped by more than 5 m. The main reasons for this cannot be identified easily because there are no data on water use quantities from all three countries. As the lakes represent unique natural, ecological and economical water resources in a region suffering water shortage, we plead for a strengthening of international support in activities on salvation of both lakes. A prerequisite for this is the water balance calculation and common cooperation in sustainable water resources management of the lakes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.