基于元胞自动机的城市用地变化研究

城市土地利用演化的实质是人为干预下城市生态景观的自组织机制作用过程；元胞自动机（CA）所独有的特征和构模方式使其在模拟复杂性系统如城市系统等方面表现出强大的模拟能力。利用ASTER影像数据，在CA模型下对福州市2010年和2020年的城市用地进行了模拟。从而为城市规划提供决策支持服务，对真正合理地利用城市土地，实现城市可持续发展具有重要意义。     

城市土地利用演化CA模型的扩展研究

城市土地利用演化的实质是人为干预下城市生态景观的自组织机制作用过程。根据城市土地利用演化生命机制概念,构建基于地理特征的城市土地利用演化CA模型,并以深圳特区为试验区域进行实证研究。结果表明,基于城市生命机制和地理特征的城市土地利用演化CA模型,可以有效地进行城市土地利用演化的时空模拟与预测。     

白银市城市空间组织演化过程及其合理性分析

城市是一个复杂的自组织巨系统,但人类的干预作用几乎伴随其成长的整个过程。我国的资源型城市作为一类特殊城市在其空间发展变化中都留下了自组织与他组织的作用烙印,科学认识二者作用下的空间成长变化规律对实施转型发展具有积极意义。以白银市为例,选择白银城区1953年、1986年、2000年、2016年建设用地为数据源,运用GIS方法对白银城区空间扩展演化进行定量分析,结果表明：（1）白银市城市空间演变经历了城市兴起成长的他组织主导空间扩展期（1953-1986年）、城市波动发展的自-他组织共同作用的空间扩展期（1987-2000年）与转型发展的自组织主导空间扩展期（2000-2016年）三个阶段,虽然自组织机制在城市空间演变中的作用不断增强,但他组织机制仍发挥着不可或缺的引导管理作用。（2）城市空间扩展强度在纵向上不断增大,不同阶段各类型建设用地扩展强度差异显著,各有侧重,而在横向上方位分异性突出,各阶段有各自的主导扩展方向。表明在国家经济体制、城市经济转型和城市空间结构等变化过程中,自组织机制与他组织机制随其变化而影响到空间扩展强度和范围的变化。（3）各阶段白银市城市空间的建设用地结构不尽合理,工业用地占总建设用地的比例过大,虽凸显了资源型城市的特质,但严重超国家标准。同时,无论是单项人均居住与工业用地,还是人均建设用地都大幅超国家标准。（4）城市空间与城市人口和经济的相对增长关系趋好性显著,城市空间形态的离散程度与分形维数降低,空间紧凑度提升。表明城市空间扩展的演化方向是一个能够发挥自组织机制和他组织机制的优势互补的优化过程。     

城市化:相变与自组织临界性

城市化的本质是一种自组织临界相变过程 ,在时间和空间上分别联系着自组织临界性(SOC)和空间复杂性。城市化过程作为SOC有 3个方面的标志 :时间方向的 1/ f涨落、空间方面的分形结构和等级方式的Zipf定律 ,其共性是无标度性。分形中心地景观和位序 -规模分布分别是城市化自组织临界过程在空间和等级两个领域的实证判据。在城市化的临界相变过程中 ,城市体系通常演化为无标度网络 ,而位序 -规模法则乃是空间领域的无标度性在等级领域的结构性“投影”。基于SOC思想研究城市化过程有助于理解自组织城市网络的复杂空间动力学 ,从而为发展城市演化的模拟实验方法提供理论思路     

溜砂坡动力学特性实验及防治

溜砂坡是川藏公路中段较为严重的一种山地灾害。本文在自组织临界性理论的概念框架下，通过干燥沙石散粒体临界态单面坡沙堆实验，对溜砂坡的坍滑动力学特性进行了探索。实验发现，颗粒均匀的沙坡出现正态分布的、准周期的大规模“雪崩”，而颗粒非均匀的沙坡的坍滑重量表现为难以界分的、多样化的负幂率分布，大规模坍滑的绝对规模较小，呈现自组织临界行为。基于自组织临界性系统具有的普适性，提出了溜砂坡“频率一规模”关系等灾害演化的初步规律。溜砂坡坡顶来沙和坡脚制约作用削弱，是造成坍滑发展的主要原因。针对坍滑的“牵引式”形式和实际工程条件，设计了一种能稳定溜砂坡坡脚、对基础条件要求低的新型支挡防护结构。     

不同生境条件下泡泡刺(Nitraria sphaerocarpa)种群的空间格局及动态分析

应用生态空间理论(theory of spatial ecology)和地统计技术，分析了不同生境条件下泡泡刺种群的空间分布特征及其动态。结果表明：受气候条件的控制，泡泡刺种群是以斑块状格局形式存在。在较小的尺度上，生境条件起到了明显的作用，戈壁生境中的泡泡刺灌丛沙堆趋向于斑块小、密度大、空间自相关距离短，而沙漠生境中的结果相反。另外，沙埋和地下水位下降不仅为泡泡刺种群拓宽了生态位，而且是该种群演化的驱动力。     

复杂性科学理论与区域空间演化模拟研究

针对传统上在两类模拟区域空间演化的模型策略，着重讨论了它们的建模思想和手段，在此基础上介绍了复杂性（Complexity）研究的重要成果－－复杂适应系统（CAS）理论的基本概念以及CAS模型的思想，探讨了区域作为复杂适应系统的一般特征，并且通过一个城市空间演化的概念模型阐述了CAS模型的技术问题及其建模的独到之处。     

中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素

基于1992-2013年中国城市遥感模拟反演碳排放数据,采用空间自相关、空间马尔科夫矩阵和动态空间面板数据模型,在同时考虑碳排放的时空滞后效应和不同地理经济空间权重矩阵的条件下,对城市碳排放的演化路径和关键影响因素进行了定量识别和减排政策探讨。研究表明,中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异正逐步缩小,空间上呈现出明显的高排放俱乐部集聚特征,同时碳排放类型演化具有明显的路径依赖特征;面板数据模型估计结果表明经济增长与人均碳排放呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,而绝大多数城市的人均碳排放处于随经济发展而增加的阶段,二产偏重的经济结构和投资的粗放增长共同正向作用于城市碳排放,而人口的集聚效应、技术水平的提升、对外开放度和公路运输强度的增加则共同抑制城市碳排放水平的提高。因此未来要抑制促增因素和发挥促降因素的作用才能有效降低城市碳排放;优化产业结构、精简粗放投资、增加研发强度以及提升公路通达性是未来实现中国城市节能减排的有效途径。     

新型城区——广州经济技术开发区与高新技术开发区建设探讨

在论述经济技术开发区、高新技术开发与新型城区关系的基础上，依据城市空间自组织演化理论，提出按开放式的网络结构建设广州经济技术开发区与高新技术开发区新型城区的构想，并提出相应的创新网络、产业网络、基础设施网络和组织网络的建设策略。     

广州市港口服务业空间特征及其形成机制研究

探讨了广州市港口服务业的空间分布特征及其形成机制。研究表明,广州市港口服务业空间分布具有珠江指向性和明显的集聚特征;在公司具有较高空间迁移频率的同时,其集聚空间却呈现出较强的稳定性;不同类型港口服务业的空间分布差异明显;空间总体格局表现出向外港区和城市CBD集聚的趋势。其空间分布特征是在区位因素、行业内在特性、港口空间系统演化、城市规划与建设以及信息技术革新等因素协同作用下的综合表现。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Development and Environment in Peninsular Malaysia . S. Robert Aiken, Colin H. Leigh, Thomas R. Leinbach, Michael R. Moss. The Rural-Urban Fringe: Canadian Perspectives . Ken B. Beesley and Lorne H. Russwurm, eds. Women and Development . Lourdes Benería, ed. The Border that Joins: Mexican Migrants and U.S. Responsibility . Peter G. Brown and Henry Shue, eds. Cities of the World: World Regional Urban Development . Stanley D. Brunn and Jack L. Williams, eds. Time Resources, Society, and Ecology: On the Capacity for Human Interaction in Space and Time (Vol. I, Preindustrial Societies). Tommy Carlstein. Urban Geography . David Clark. Spanish City Planning in North America . Dora P. Crouch, Daniel J. Garr, and Axel I. Mundigo. Not On Our Street: Community Attitudes to Mental Health Care . M. J. Dear and S. M. Taylor Unequal growth: Urban and Regional Employment Change in the U.K. Stephen Fothergill and Graham Gudgin. Agricultural Land in an Urban Society . Owen J. Furuseth and John T. Pierce. The Petroleum Industry in Oil-Importing Developing Countries . Fariborz Ghadar. Historical Understanding in Geography, An Idealist Approach . Leonard Guelke. Regional Planning in Europe . R. Hudson and J. R. Lewis, eds. Remote Sensing for Resource Management . Chris J. Johannsen and James L. Sanders, eds. Geography and The State . R. J. Johnston. Texas Graveyards: a Cultural Legacy . Tlrry G. Jordan. The Politics of Location: An Introduction . Andrew Kirby. A Social Geography of the City . David Ley. Energy and the Future . Douglas MacLean and Peter Brown, eds. The Natural Environment of Newfoundland Past and Present . A. G. Macpherson and J. B. Macpherson, eds. Tourism: Economic, Physical and Social Impacts . Alister Mathieson and Geoffrey Wall. Railroads and Land Grant Policy: A Study in Government Intervention . Lloyd J. Mercer. Progress in Rural Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Urban Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Models of Spatial Inequality: Settlement Patterns in Historical Archaeology . Robert Paynter. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy, Anticipating the Unexpected . William J. Petak and Arthur A. Atkisson. The Nature of Geomorphology . Alistair F. Pitty. Regional Conflict and National Policy . Kent A. Price Women and Spatial Change: Learning Resources for Social Science Courses . Arlene C. Rengert and Janice J. Monk, eds. Urban and Regional Analysis for Development Planning . Richard Rhoda. Rivers: Form and Process in Alluvial Channels . Keith Richards. This Remarkable Continent: An Atlas of United States and Canadian Society and Culture . John F. Rooney, Jr., Wilbur Zelinsky, and Dean R. Louder, gen. eds. The Origins of Open-Field Agriculture . Trevor Rowley, ed. Residential Location Determinants of the Older Population . Gundars Rudzitis. Borderland Sourcebook: A Guide to the Literature on Northern Mexico and the American Southwest . Ellwyn R. Stoddard, Richard L. Nostrand, and Jonathan P. West, eds. Arctic and Antarctic . David Sugden. Tall Timbers Ecology and Management Conference, February 22–24, 1979, Proceedings No. 16 . Graphic Communication and Design in Contemporary Cartography (Progress in Contemporary Cartography , Vol. II). D. R. Fraser Taylor, ed. Living with Energy Shortfall: A Future for American Towns and Cities . Jon Van Til. The United States: Habitation of Hope . J. Wreford Watson. Air Photo Interpretation for Archaeologists . D. R. Wilson. Urban and Rural Change in West Germany . Trevor Wild, ed. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Rabat: Urban Apartheid in Morocco . Janet Abu -Lughod . Marketplaces in a Developing Country: The Case of Western Nigeria . Isaac Ayinde Adalemo . Farming Development and Space: A World Agricultural Geography . Bernd Andreae . Section and Party: A Political Geography of American Presidential Elections, from Andrew Jackson to Ronald Reagan . J. Clark Archer and Peter J. Taylor . Women and Space: Ground Rules and Social Maps . Shirley Ardener , ed. European Progress in Spatial Analysis . R. J. Bennett , ed. The Origins of Academic Geography in the United States . Brian W. Blouet Geographic Perspectives on Global Problems . Ronald Reed Boyce . Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty . Robert Chambers , Richard Longhurst and Arnold Pacey eds. The New Nationalism and the Use of Common Spaces: Issues in Marine Pollution and the Exploitation of Antarctica . Jonathan I. Charney , ed. Communications Tomorrow: The Coming of the Information Society . Edward Cornish , ed. The Design of Suburbia . Arthur Edwards . Explorer on the Northern Plains: Lieutenant Gouverneur K. Warren's Preliminary Report of Explorations in Nebraska and Dakota in the Years 1855–56–57. With an Introduction by Frank N. Schubert . The Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna . Michael J. Ford . Essentials of Physical Geography . Robert E. Gabler , Robert J. Sager , Sheila Brazier , and Daniel L. Wise. The Road to Jaramillo . William Glen . Valued Environments . John R. Gold and Jacquelin Burgess , eds. Proximity and Preference: Problems in the Multidimensional Analysis of Large Data Sets . Reginald G. Golledge and John N. Rayner , eds. A Search for Common Ground . Peter Gould and Gunnar Olsson , eds. Geography: Its History and Concepts . Arild Holt -Jensen . A Population Geography . Huw R. Jones . The Human Mosaic: A Thematic Introduction to Cultural Geography, 3rd ed. Terry G. Jordan and Lester Rowntree . Urban Social Geography: An Introduction . Paul Knox . The Anatomy of Job Loss: The How, Why and Where of Employment Decline . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan . The Information Society as Post-Industial Society . Yoneji Masuda . Map Librarianship, 2nd ed. Harold Nichols . India: Cultural Patterns and Processes . Allen G. Noble and Ashok K. Dutt , eds. The God that Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties . Colin Norman . Geography: An Introductory Perspective . Robert E. Norris , Keith D. Harries and John D. Vitek . The Politics of Technology Assessment . David M. O'Brien and Donald A. Marchand . Ethnic Segregation in Cities . Ceri Peach , Vaughan Robinson and Susan Smith , eds. Churches and Church Membership in the United States, 1980 . Bernard Quinn , Herman Anderson , Martin Bradley , Paul Goetting and Peggy Shriver . Energy in Australia: Politics and Economics . Hugh Saddler . Development from Above or Below? The Dialectics of Regional Planning in Developing Countries . Walter B. Stóuhr and D. R. Fraser Taylor , eds. Human Impact on the Ecosystem . Joy Tivy and Greg O'Hare . Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America . Thomas R. Vale . The Mapmakers: The Story of the Great Pioneers in Cartography from Antiquity to the Space Age . John Noble Wilford .     

Deserts and Aeolian Desertification in China: Book review and some thoughts

Desertification is a global phenomenon that affects about two billion people. It occurs in arid zones where the annual precipitation is below 400 mm, partic- ularly in the marginal areas of the world＇s largest deserts. It is a result of water and wind erosion, over- grazing, global warm-ing, improper soil cultivation, and increased pressure ot population growth, and it causes degradation of soil and natural and agricultural vegetation. The direct result is less food for people and livestock, which influences pop- ulation and animal husbandry fluctuations. Despite ef- forts to combat and reduce desertification, the affected areas are annually increasing.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The Rice Economy of Asia . Randolph Barker and Robert W. Herdt with Beth Rose. Using Microcomputers: A Guidebook for Writers, Teachers, and Researchers in the Social Sciences . Blaine A. Erie—the Lake that Survived . Noel M. Burns. Geology and Society . Donald R. Coates. Caves and Karst of Kentucky . Percy H. Dougherty, ed. Altered Harvest: Agriculture, Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply . Jack Doyle. The Middle East and North Africa, A Political Geography . Alasdair Drysdale and Gerald H. Blake. Clamor at the Gates. The New American Immigration . Nathan Glazer, ed. Development and the Landowner: An analysis of the British experience . Robin Goodchild and Richard Munton. Discovering Landscape in England and Wales . Andrew Goudie and Rita Gardner. The Modern Plantation in the Third World . Edgar Graham and Ingrid Floering. Social Relations and Spatial Structures . Derek Gregory and John Urry, eds. The World Food Problem 1950–1980 . David Grigg. Costa Rica: A Geographical Interpretation in Historical Perspective . Carolyn Hall. The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey Consciousness and the Urban Experience: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey. Reviving Main Street . Deryck Holdsworth, ed. Rural Roads and Poverty Alleviation . John Howe and Peter Richards, eds. Uneven Development in Southern Europe: Studies of Accumulation, Class, Migration and the State . Ray Hudson and Jim Lewis, eds. Karst Geomorphology . J. N. Jennings. The Geomorphology of North-west England . R. H. Johnson, ed. Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society . Robert Kates, Jesse Ausubel, Mimi Berberian, eds. Public Service Provision and Urban Development . Andrew Kirby, Paul Knox, and Steven Pinch, ed. State and Market: The Politics of the Public and the Private . Jan-Erik Lane, ed. Living Cities . Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Urban Preservation Policies. World Climatic Systems . John G. Lockwood. Urban Ethnicity in the United States. New Immigrants and Old Minorities . Lionel Maldonaldo and Joan Moore, eds. Culture and Conservation: The Human Dimension in Environmental Planning . Jeffrey A. McNeely and David Pitt, eds. The Andean Past. Land, Societies, and Conflicts . Magnus Mörner. Gaia: An Atlas of Planet Management . Norman Myers, ed. Progress in Industrial Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Political Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Rivers and Landscape . Geoff Petts and Ian Foster. Urbanization and Planning in the 3rd World: Spatial Perceptions and Public Participation . Robert B. Potter. One Island, Two Nations? A Political Geographical Analysis of the National Conflict in Ireland . D. G. Pringle. Circulation in Third World Countries . R. Mansell Prothero and Murray Chapman. The Ozarks Outdoors: A Guide for Fishermen, Hunters, and Tourists . Milton D. Rafferty. Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything . George Rengert and John Wasilchick. Geomorphology and Soils . K.S. Richards, R.R. Arnett, and S. Ellis, eds. The Homes and Homeless of Post-War Britain . Frederick Shaw. Indochinese Refugees in America . Paul J. Strand and Woodrow Jones, Jr. Wild Horses and Sacred Cows . Richard Symanski. Forever Wild: Environmental Aesthetics and the Adirondack Forest Preserve . Philip G. Terrie. The Regional Economic Impact of Technological Change . A.T. Thwaites and R.P. Oakey, eds. The Good Life . Yi-Fu Tuan.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Guidelines to Authors

1. Aims and scope
Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions （SCAR） is a bimonthly journal that publishes in English the latest research achievements in processes and the pattems of the Earth surface system in cold and arid regions. Researches in cold regions emphasize particularly on the cold-region-characterized physical,