Assessment of the Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Base of the United States

This paper describes an assessment of the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resource base of the conterminous United States, using constructed temperature at depth maps. The temperature at depth maps were computed from 3 to 10 km, for every km. The methodology is described. Factors included are sediment thickness, thermal conductivity variations, distribution of the radioactive heat generation and surface temperature based on several geologic models of the upper 10 km of the crust. EGS systems are extended in this paper to include coproduced geothermal energy, and geopressured resources. A table is provided that summarizes the resource base estimates for all components of the EGS geothermal resource. By far, the conduction-dominated components of EGS represent the largest component of the U.S. resource. Nonetheless, the coproduced resources and geopressured resources are large and significant targets for short and intermediate term development. There is a huge resource base between the depths of 3 and 8 km, where the temperature reaches 150–250°C. Even if only 2% of the conventional EGS resource is developed, the energy recovered would be equivalent to roughly 2,500 times the annual consumption of primary energy in the U.S. in 2006. Temperatures above 150°C at those depths are more common in the active tectonic regions of the western conterminous U.S., but are not confined to those areas. In the central and eastern U.S. there are identified areas of moderate size that are of reasonable grade and probably small areas of much higher grade than predicted by this analyses. However because of the regional (the grid size is 5′ × 5′) scale of this study such potentially promising sites remain to be identified. Several possible scenarios for EGS development are discussed. The most promising and least costly may to be developments in abandoned or shut-in oil and gas fields, where the temperatures are high enough. Because thousands of wells are already drilled in those locations, the cost of producing energy from such fields could be significantly lowered. In addition many hydrocarbon fields are producing large amounts of co-produced water, which is necessary for geothermal development. Although sustainability is not addressed in this study, the resource is so large that in at least some scenarios of development the geothermal resource is sustainable for long periods of time.     

Heat Flow and Geothermal Potential in the South-Central United States

Geothermal exploration is typically limited to high-grade hydrothermal reservoirs that are usually found in the western United States, yet large areas with subsurface temperatures above 150°C at economic drilling depths can be found east of the Rocky Mountains. The object of this paper is to present new heat flow data and to evaluate the geothermal potential of Texas and adjacent areas. The new data show that, west of the Ouachita Thrust Belt, the heat flow values are lower than east of the fault zone. Basement heat flow values for the Palo Duro and Fort Worth Basins are below 50 mW/m² while, in the frontal zone of the belt, they can exceed 60 mW/m². Further east, along the Balcones fault system the heat flow is in general higher than 55 mW/m². The eastern most heat flow sites are in Louisiana and they show very high heat flow (over 80 mW/m²), which is associated with the apparently highly radioactive basement of the Sabine uplift. The geothermal resource in this area is large and diverse, and can be divided in high grade (temperature above 150°C) convective systems, conductive based enhanced geothermal systems and geothermal/geopressured systems. One of the most attractive areas east of the cordillera extends from eastern Texas across Louisiana and Arkansas to western Mississippi. Here temperatures reach exploitation range at depths below 4 km, and tapping such a resource from shut in hydrocarbon fields is relatively easy. The initial costs of the development can be greatly reduced if existing hydrocarbon infrastructure is used, and therefore using shut-in hydrocarbon fields for geothermal purposes should not be neglected.     

Stratabound Geothermal Resources in North Dakota and South Dakota

Geothermal energy resources in North Dakota and South Dakota occur as low (T < 90°C) and intermediate (T < 150°C) temperature geothermal waters in regional-scale aquifers within the Williston and Kennedy Basins. The accessible resource base is approximately 21.25 exajoules (10¹⁸ J = 1 exajoule, 10¹⁸ J ~ 10¹⁵ Btu = 1 quad) in North Dakota and 12.25 exajoules in South Dakota. Resource temperatures range from 40°C at depths of about 700 m to 150°C at 4500 m in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. In South Dakota, resource temperatures range from 44°C at a depth of 550 m near Pierre to 100°C at a depth of 2500 m in the northwestern corner. This resource assessment raises the identified accessible resource base by 31% above the previous assessments and by 310% over an earlier assessment. The large increases in the identified accessible resource bases reported in this study result from including all potential geothermal aquifers and better understanding of the thermal regime of the region. These results imply that a reassessment of stratabound geothermal resources in the United States that includes all geothermal aquifers would increase significantly the identified accessible resource base. The Williston Basin in North Dakota is characterized by conductive heat flows ranging from 43 to 68 mW m^–2 and averaging 55 mW m^–2. Comparisons of calculated and bottomhole temperatures measured in oil fields over the Nesson Anticline and the Billings Nose show temperature differences which suggest that upward groundwater flow in fractures on the westward sides of the structures slightly perturbs the otherwise conductive thermal field. The maximum heat-flow disturbance is estimated to be of the order of 10 to 20 mW m^–2. These thermal anomalies do not alter significantly the accessible geothermal resource base. Anomalous heat flow in south-central South Dakota is caused by heat advection in gravity-driven groundwater flow in regional aquifers. Heat flow is anomalously high (Q > 130 mW m^–2) in the discharge area in south-central South Dakota and anomalously low (30 mW m²) in the recharge area near the Black Hills and along the western limb of the Kennedy Basin in western South Dakota. Heat-flow disturbances are the result of vertical groundwater flow through fractures in the discharge area of the regional flow system in South Dakota are minor and may be significant only in deeply incised stream valleys. An important factor that controls the temperature of the resource in both North Dakota and South Dakota is the insulating effect of a thick (500–2000 m) layer of low thermal-conductivity shales that overlie the region. The effective thermal conductivity of the shale layer is approximately 1.2 W m^–1 K^–1 in contrast to sandstones and carbonates, which have conductivities of 2.5 to 3.5 W m^–1 K^–1. This low conductivity leads to high geothermal gradients (dT/dz > 50°C km^–1), even where heat flow has normal continental values, that is 40–60 mW m^–2. Engineering studies show that geothermal space heating using even the lowest temperature geothermal aquifers (T 40 °C) in North Dakota and South Dakota is cost effective at present economic conditions. The Inyan Kara Formation of the Dakota Group (Cretaceous) is the preferred geothermal aquifer in terms of water quality and productivity. Total dissolved solids in the Inyan Kara Formation ranges from 3,000 to more than 20,000 mg L^–1. Porosities normally are higher than 20%, and the optimum producing zones generally are thicker than 30 m. The estimated water productivity index of a productive well in the Inyan Kara Formation is 0.254179 l s^–1 Mpa^–1. Deeper formations have warmer waters, but, in general, are less permeable and have poorer water quality than the Inyan Kara.     

A Landscape Ecology Approach to Assessing Development Impacts in the Tropics: A Geothermal Energy Example in Hawaii

Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape pattern on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.     

西藏地热活动与开发对地质环境的影响

年轻的西藏高原,新构造运动活跃,地热活动频繁而强烈,区内有各种类型的地热显示区(点)600余处,与地热活动相关的环境问题以及地质灾害有着复杂而又广泛的联系。探索地热活动与地质灾害及特殊地质环境类型形成之间的关系,对于指导地热显示区及其周边的各项人类开发活动,寻求开发利用地热资源与保护环境的最佳切入点发展地方经济、保护自然环境都有着重要的意义。     

南京幕府山地区地质灾害与地热调查

南京幕府山地区依山傍江,地处南京市规划战略发展中心位置,自然和人文资源丰富.但是,由于早期采石等原因,地貌景观破碎,地质灾害情况比较严重.通过地质地貌调查,发现整个幕府山地区存在着较多的滑坡灾害隐患区.同时,近年来还发现该区蕴含较丰富的地热资源.调查表明,幕府山地区存在的地热资源主要集中分布在废弃白云石矿坑的西部、西北部和东北部的高地.     

Australian Climate,Energy and Water Policies: conflicts and synergies

Responding to the threat of climate change, conserving freshwater ecosystems and securing adequate energy and water supplies are among the greatest challenges facing modern societies. Yet recognition of the interdependencies between climate, energy and water policy—with resulting synergies and trade-offs—remains limited, leaving societies and governments alike vulnerable to the dangers of conflicted or unintended policy outcomes from sectoral decisions. In this paper, we analyse current Australian climate, energy and water policies to identify the risks of perverse outcomes between the three policy sectors. In doing so we categorise the conflicts and synergies between particular energy generation, carbon sequestration and water supply policies to improve understandings of the challenges facing decision makers in Australia and internationally. Four types of interventions are identified that would enable integration and optimisation of policies, namely: better cross-sectoral knowledge to inform decisions; the identification of technologies with co-benefits; markets with broader cross-sectoral participation (including linking water and carbon markets); and better-integrated governance institutions.     

A New Model for Heat Flow in Extensional Basins: Radiogenic Heat,Asthenospheric Heat,and the McKenzie Model

The McKenzie model proposed in 1978, which is widely used in calculating the thermal history of rift basins and other extensional basins, incorrectly assumes that all heat passing through the lithosphere originates below the lithosphere. In reality, heat from radiogenic sources within the lithosphere, especially in the upper crust, may represent more than half the heat flow at the top of basement. Thinning of the lithosphere during extension does indeed result in an increase of heat flowing from the asthenosphere, but this thinning also reduces the radiogenic heat from within the lithosphere. Because these two effects cancel to a large degree, the direct effects of lithospheric extension on heat flow at the top of basement are smaller than those predicted by the McKenzie model. Because of permanent loss of radiogenic material by lithospheric thinning, the heat flow at the top of basement long after rifting will be lower than the pre-rift heat flow.The McKenzie model predicts an instantaneous increase in heat flow during rifting. The Morgan model proposed in 1983, however, predicts a substantial time delay in the arrival of the higher heat flow from the asthenosphere at the top of basement or within sediments. Using the Morgan model, heat flow during the early stages of rifting will actually be lower than prior to rifting, because the time delay in the loss of radiogenic heat is less than the time delay in arrival of new heat from the asthenosphere.     

地温示踪地表暖化过程中的气候变化和城市热岛效应

对日本熊本平原城区和郊区28口观测井温度进行测量,利用一维非稳定水－热流运移方程解析解反演地表温度变化率,同时与研究区域7个气象站气温数据进行对比验证。结果表明：1987－2012年研究区域城区地表温度增加1.51°C,近地表气温增加1.13°C;郊区地表温度增加0.81°C,近地表气温增加0.59°C。研究区域气候变化和城市热岛效应对地表暖化过程的贡献率基本一致,通过对城区和郊区地温进行测量分析,能有效量化区分两者对地表暖化过程的影响。     

中国低碳治理的制约因素和相应对策

作为全球碳排放大国,中国低碳治理的发展方向对全球气候变化有深远的影响,值得深入研究。通过中国低碳治理的制约因素及其成因的分析,提出地方政府行为是中国低碳治理的主要制约因素。这主要表现在地方政府鼓励不符合低碳发展的粗放式经济增长和城市开发及地方政府制定与执行低碳政策的积极性不高。而地方政府行为背后是各种制度环境因素。因此,改善中国低碳治理需要从制度改革入手。对制度改革提出3个建议：① 强化节能目标责任制;② 缓和地方政府过于强烈的发展意愿;③ 加强公民参与低碳治理。     

Comparisons of borehole temperature–depth profiles and surface air temperatures in the northern plains of the USA

Temperature–depth profiles measured in boreholes contain a record of temperature changes at the Earth's surface. The degree to which these profiles and surface air temperature records track each other is quantitatively assessed for the northern plains of the USA. Surface air temperature records are used as a forcing function to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles which are compared with transient temperatures derived from borehole temperature–depth data. These comparisons indicate that surface air and ground temperatures are correlated. Furthermore, these comparisons yield a long-term mean temperature tied to the meteorological record which provides a context for interpreting contemporary warming trends. Our results indicate that warming recorded in surface air temperature time series represents a positive departure above baseline temperature estimates.     

1961-2018年淮河流域热浪事件时空变化特征

利用淮河流域1961-2018年逐日最高气温与平均气温格点数据,在对基于绝对阈值和相对阈值的热浪事件识别方法进行改进的基础上,分析了逐年的热浪强度、烈度、频次、最长历时等时空变化特征.结果 表明,淮河流域基于固定气温阈值的绝对热浪(＞35℃)的多年平均强度为10.27℃、烈度为1.82℃,频次为1.3次;基于热浪指数的...     

When insurance and goodwill are not enough: Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) ratings,risk calculations and disaster resilience in Australia

ABSTRACT

Home and contents insurance is integral to household and community resilience against disasters. Yet many households are underinsured. While causes for underinsurance have been widely researched, changes to Australian building regulations in the last decade has established a new source of insurance miscalculations. Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) ratings can inflate rebuilding costs by 20% or more, yet BAL ratings remain obfuscated to homeowners and are notoriously confusing to navigate. After the October 2013 bushfires in New South Wales, the Blue Mountains Local Recovery Steering Group found that ‘information on the BAL process, the guidelines, the expected costs, the consulting experts and a property’s bushfire-prone status is literally all over the place’. This paper aims to provide clarity on the subject, tracing the precise socio-technical means through which disaster risk is perceived and assessed. The paper conceptualises insurance and risk ratings as calculative devices that provide both a technical solution to reduce financial losses and a philosophical tool for risk rationalisation. It then builds on interviews conducted with residents in the Blue Mountains affected by the 2013 bushfires, to ascertain how such calculative devices practically affect communities at risk. The paper concludes by outlining potential solutions to a confusing and costly problem in Australia, highlighting critical public awareness issues surround BAL ratings, which have profound insurance and wellbeing implications for people rebuilding and recovering from bushfire.     

楚雄市城市气候特征分析——兼谈中国主要城市热岛强度对比分析

利用云南省楚雄市气象观测站1959~2000年资料与其郊区南华气象观测站资料进行比较, 并用小波分析等方法,通过与北京、上海等大城市热岛强度进行对比分析,找出了我国不同城市热岛强度分布特征,发现楚雄市热岛强度的年变化和日变化规律。结果表明,进入20世纪80年代以来,楚雄市热岛效应日趋明显,呈明显的季节性,其变化规律与北京、上海等大城市既有相似之处也有不同之处,不同区域背景对城市热岛效应有一定影响。随着楚雄城市的发展,城区的绝对湿度和相对湿度逐渐减少,“干岛效应”呈增强的趋势。     

Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera: The results of 33 years of measurements

Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because we do not know enough about the causes and proce     

能源消费与气候关系的中美比较研究

应用多项式模型把气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了中国和美国气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明:温度是美国近50年来影响气候耗能量的主要气候因子,中国从20世纪50年代到80年代初,旱涝灾害一直是影响中国气候耗能量的主要气候因子,它们之间存在有明显的线性相关关系,自20世纪80年代初以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响明显减弱,温度对气候耗能量的影响逐渐增强,如果仅考虑气候耗能量,目前中国的能源消费变化正处于由气象灾害驱动型向温度驱动型的过渡时期。     

Climate change in the Arctic: current and future vulnerability in two Inuit communities in Canada

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable.     

Black gold to green gold: regional energy policy and the rehabilitation of coal in response to climate change

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal 'clean', paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities.     

阿克苏河流域的面雨量序列及其与径流关系

以数字高程模型 (DEM) 的1km×1km网格数据为基础,对阿克苏河流域14个气象站和水文站的1961~2000年的年降水资料进行了自然正交分解 (EOF),通过回归分析,建立主要特征向量与地理因子的插值模型,给出了一个面雨量序列的计算方法,为建立气候要素的区域平均序列提供了一个有效的解决方案,并由此推算出年阿克苏流域平均年降水量的空间分布以及面雨量序列。径流量与面雨量之比 (R/P) 平均为0.43,最高为0.69 (1997年),最低为0.30 (1963年)。计算出的阿克苏河流域面雨量序列与阿克苏河实测径流量序列的趋势变化率分别为5.79×10⁸ m³/10a和4.29×10⁸ m³/10a,两者均表现出增加趋势,但面雨量的增加速率要比径流量大一些,年际变化幅度也要大,面雨量和径流量的变差系数Cv值分别为0.17和0.13。阿克苏河年径流量的变化与夏季0^oC层高度、年面雨量有着十分密切的关系,表明20世纪90年代以来新疆气候的变化是阿克苏河流域径流稳定增加的一个非常重要的因素。     

青海西部黄瓜梁地区风能资源的观测与评估

 塔的观测资料,计算了风速、平均风功率密度等参数,利用风能评估方法分析了风能参数、风向频率的变化规律及其特征。结果表明,观测年度10～100 m年平均风速和年平均风功率密度分别在4.0～5.2 m·s-1、83.5～200.2 W·m-2之间,且随高度的升高而增大。测风塔各高度3～25 m·s-1风速的时数在4 560～5 316 h之间,最多风向为偏西北风、次多风向为偏东北风。风能密度主要集中在W—NNW和NNE—NE扇区,累积频率分别达60%和29%。观测年50 m高度风速距平百分率偏小（-5.15%）,长年代校正的年平均风功率密度值为192.3 W·m-2,达到了1级（＜200 W·m-2）并网型风力发电的风电场等级标准,指示这个区域的风能资源比较丰富。