夏季珠江口水域营养盐分布特征及其富营养化评价

【目的】研究夏季珠江口水域氮、磷营养盐的时空变化特征及其富营养化水平。【方法】基于珠江口水域2006-2010年夏季水文水质多要素观测资料,采用Pearson相关分析法,分析水文泥沙对氮、磷等营养盐的的驱动作用,评价该水域富营养化状况并阐明其主要环境问题。【结果】珠江口水域环境因子区域分布差异显著,其中营养盐(氮、磷等)和悬浮泥沙均表现为由口门向口外递减,而盐度则表现为相反的趋势。无机氮以硝氮为主,亚硝氮次之,氨氮含量最低。【结论】径流输入、盐淡水混合稀释作用和悬浮泥沙的吸附/解吸作用共同影响着氮、磷营养盐的分布。氮磷比值分析说明,珠江口浮游植物生长主要表现为潜在性的磷限制。珠江口水域海洋环境重度及严重富营养化(E 5)主要集中在口门至内伶仃岛海域,主要环境问题为水质污染,且氮、磷营养盐和溶解氧为主要贡献因子。     

警报拉响,海洋环境保护路指何方

<正>问题频现:来自海洋的警报近十多年来,由于入海流域和沿海地区经济社会高速发展,各类污染物,特别是氮、磷等营养盐排放的大幅增加,我国近岸海域的水质呈缓慢下降趋势,局部海域污染较为严重,海洋环境保护工作面临巨大压力,警报频传。氮磷引起的富营养化问题突出,赤潮灾害多发。我国近岸海域富营养     

青岛鳌山湾海区营养结构分析与营养状况评价

根据2004年6月中旬在鳌山湾海区所取得的底层海水营养盐资料,分析了青岛鳌山湾海区营养盐的平面分布特征;运用绝对限制法则和相对限制法则确定了鳌山湾海区的营养盐限制因子;采用营养状态综合指数法和分类分级富营养化评价模式对鳌山湾海域的营养状况进行了评价。结果表明:鳌山湾营养盐限制因子为磷(P),该海区由缺氮转变为缺磷,营养盐结构发生了根本性变化,且该海域无富营养化现象,水质较好。     

氮、磷、硅对条纹小环藻生长和叶绿素a含量的影响

采用单因子实验方法研究氮、磷和硅营养盐对条纹小环藻(Cyclotella striata)生长和叶绿素a含量的影响。结果表明:在不同磷和硅营养盐浓度下,条纹小环藻比生长率μ变化显著(P<0.05),其中,硝酸盐为0.60~0.85 d-1,硅酸盐为0.49~0.61 d-1,磷酸盐为0.46~0.51 d-1。总体而言,在一定的营养盐浓度范围内,条纹小环藻的最大藻细胞密度Nmax随着氮、磷和硅营养盐浓度的增加而增大;条纹小环藻叶绿素a(Chl a)含量亦随着氮、硅浓度的增加,与Nmax增加趋势一致,但随着磷浓度的增加Chl a先增加后减小,与Nmax不一致。条纹小环藻的主要限制营养元素是氮和硅,而磷可能不会成为其短期培养的限制因子。     

青岛鳌山湾海区营养结构分析与营养状况评价

根据2004年6月中旬在鳌山湾海区所取得的底层海水营养盐资料，分析了青岛鳌山湾海区营养盐的平面分布特征；运用绝对限制法则和相对限制法则确定了鳌山湾海区的营养盐限制因子；采用营养状态综合指数法和分类分级富营养化评价模式对鳌山湾海域的营养状况进行了评价。结果表明：鳌山湾营养盐限制因子为磷（P），该海区由缺氮转变为缺磷，营养盐结构发生了根本性变化，且该海域无富营养化现象，水质较好。     

珠江磨刀门河口枯季叶绿素a环境因子驱动分析

【目的】分析珠江磨刀门河口浮游植物叶绿素a及其驱动因子的潮周期变化,并揭示叶绿素a的环境影响机制。【方法】基于珠江磨刀门河口2017年枯季(1月13-20日)水文水质多要素同步观测数据,采用主成分分析(PCA)和结构方程模型(SEM)确定浮游植物叶绿素a与多个环境因子的关系并量化各因子的驱动作用。【结果】磨刀门水道浮游植物叶绿素a浓度变化范围为0.77～10.92μg/L,口门处变化为0.70～9.01μg/L,磨刀门河口动力驱动下浮游植物叶绿素a的潮周期差异显著。盐度、含沙量和氮磷营养盐亦随潮汐涨落差异显著,而水温无明显潮周期变化。【结论】外海水团对氮营养盐的稀释混合作用强于磷营养盐,而悬浮泥沙对磷营养盐的吸附作用强于氮营养盐。与氮营养盐相比,溶解态磷相对不足,限制磨刀门河口浮游植物的生长。径流(营养盐、悬沙等为代表)、潮流(盐度为代表)对河口浮游植物的影响机制不同,其中氮磷营养盐和水温起着直接作用,而悬沙和盐度间接影响浮游植物叶绿素a的变化。     

珠江口海域营养盐和叶绿素a的时空分布特征

【目的】研究珠江口海域营养物和叶绿素a的时空分布特征。【方法】根据2015年5月(春季)、8月(夏季)和10月(秋季)3个季节的现场调查资料,通过对3个季节浮游植物Chl-a以及包括氮磷比在内的营养结构进行综合分析,深入探讨珠江口海域浮游植物Chl-a的时空变化调控机制。【结果】珠江口海域各季节营养盐呈高氮低磷分布,3个季节N︰P均值49.6。叶绿素a季节差异明显,夏季叶绿素a含量是春季的2倍、秋季的9倍。【结论】春季浮游植物生长受温度影响较大,夏、秋两季由于外海水的入侵导致磷限制比较显著;DIN能满足各季节浮游植物生长的需要,珠江口海域浮游植物生长对于磷营养盐的响应要优于氮营养盐。     

地下水氮污染的区域性调控策略

全球约有110个国家和地区的地下水遭受氮污染,地下水三氮污染已成为全球性饮水安全问题。地下水氮污染具有如
下特点:污染源主要为面源;形成过程随机性大、影响因子复杂;分布范围广、氮污染负荷时空变幅大;污染物的迁移转化涉及了复
杂的氮循环;终端排泄可引起或加剧地表水体氮污染。因此,地下水氮污染的区域修复是当前国际学术界研究的难点。提出了氮
污染的区域调控策略,以地下水氮污染脆弱性和氮污染负荷为依据,识别地下水氮污染优先控制区和优先控制目标,并分配氮污
染控制量;在此基础上,实施源头削减、下渗阻断和排泄阻控工程,最终实现区域性调控的目标。本研究为地下水氮污染的区域修
复以及地表水质量的保护提供了新思路。      

气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究

淮河流域是水体遭受营养盐污染较严重的地区,本研究选择淮河上游的淮滨流域（淮滨站以上,流域面积1.6万km²）为研究对象,首先构建了淮滨流域SWAT水文水质模型,然后利用2011—2017年淮滨站实测的月径流和月氨氮浓度对SWAT模型进行了校正与验证,最后基于全球气候模型（GCM）气象数据,预测了未来30年（2020—2029年、2030—2039年、2040—2049年）不同气候变化情境（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5）下的径流、氨氮浓度和非点源总氮负荷。结果发现,径流在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均为0.79,氨氮在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均高于0.5,表明模型的适用性良好。研究发现本研究区施肥量与土地利用类型是非点源氮负荷空间分异的主导因素。2020—2049年,不同气候变化情景下,本研究区的降水量和气温均为增长趋势。假如保持基准期（2011—2016年）污染排放强度,仅考虑气候变化影响,流域内非点源污染总氮负荷将比基准期最多增加31.8%,流域出水口淮滨站的年均氨氮浓度将最多减小42.6%。本研究可以为气候变化下淮滨流域的水文水质管理提供科学支撑。     

基于多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的西北农牧交错带土地利用优化配置

西北农牧交错带生态环境脆弱,区位特殊性和生态重要性使其在我国社会经济发展和生态环境保护方面具有重要战略意义。通过对该区域进行土地利用优化配置,使有限的土地资源支撑起生态环境保护和经济发展的重任是本文的出发点。多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的应用可以从多方面（数量结构、空间布局、综合效益）完善土地利用优化配置,为土地利用优化配置提供更多的选择方案。本文选用多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型对该区域进行2025年的土地利用变化模拟,通过设置自然发展、生态保护优先、经济发展优先、生态-经济均衡4种情景,探讨了如何在兼顾生态环境保护与社会经济发展的情况下进行土地利用的优化配置。结果表明,基于生态-经济均衡情景下的优化方案,土地利用类型的数量结构和空间布局更为合理,其综合效益优于另外3种情景。该情景在合理限制经济发展速度的前提下,使生态建设获得稳定发展,其经济效益较生态保护优先情景下增长了8.96%,生态效益较经济发展优先情景下增长了0.77%,在生态保护与经济发展2种目标之间达到平衡,为西北农牧交错带的土地利用规划提供了决策辅助。     

湛江市金融业对经济增长作用的实证分析与对策研究

以湛江金融业发展的实际数据为基础,选取经济货币化程度、经济金融化程度以及保险市场发育程度三个指标来衡量湛江市金融市场的状况,选择国内生产总值(GDP)和人均GDP作为经济增长的衡量指标;运用计量分析方法,对湛江市经济增长与金融发展之间的关系进行了实证分析;并依据计量分析的结果,对如何促进湛江市金融业的健康发展,提出了对策与建议。     

Effects of Industrial Relocation on Chinese Regional Economic Growth Disparities: Based on System Dynamics Modeling

The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics （SD） modeling and the rela- tionship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to per- form a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that indus- trial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged con- tinuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit de- creasing trends.     

Regional Economic Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitans in China Based on a Heterogeneity Stochastic Frontier Model

Using a heterogeneity stochastic frontier model(HSFM),we empirically investigated the economic efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2003 to 2016 and its influencing factors.The key findings of the paper lie in:1)in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the overall economic and technological efficiency tended to increase in a wavelike manner,economic growth slowed down,and there was an obvious imbalance in economic efficiency between the different districts,counties and cities;2)the heterogeneity stochastic frontier production functions(SFPFs)of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei were different from each other,and investment was still an important impetus of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;3)economic efficiency was positively correlated with economic agglomeration,human capital,industrial structure,infrastructure,the informatization level,and institutional factors,but negatively correlated with the government role and economic opening.The following policy suggestions are offered:1)to improve regional economic efficiency and reduce the economic gap in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,governments must reduce their intervention in economic activities,stimulate the potentials of labor and capital,optimize the structure of human resources,and foster new demographic incentives;2)governments must guide economic factors that are reasonable throughout Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and strengthen infrastructure construction in underdeveloped regions,thus attaining sustainable economic development;3)governments must plan overall economic growth factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and promote reasonable economic factors(e.g.,labor,resources,and innovations)across different regions,thus attaining complementary advantages between Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.     

Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth： An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development(FD)and economic growth of China,such as simply assuming the causality direction,not highlighting financial institution,us-ing incomplete financial indicator,etc.This article,taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province,China as a case,builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale,structure and institution.Three original in-dicators of PRIVY(private investment/aggregate investment),DEPTH(aggregate loan/GDP)and FDIVG(FDI/GDP)are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach.Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou.Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth,while economic growth is not the reason for FD,because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the"supply-leading"period.In terms of Suzhou experiences,the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment,improve the institutional environment,and establish the reasonable financial structure.So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.     

Energy Abundance and China's Economic Growth: 2000–2014

Based on the interprovincial panel data of 2000–2014, this paper carries out an empirical analysis on the relationship between energy abundance and economic growth to test the theoretical hypothesis of ‘resource curse' and explore its transmission mechanism for China and its three regions. The results show that, at the national level, positive correlation is present between energy abundance and economic growth, proving that the ‘resource curse' phenomenon does not exist in China as a whole. Moreover, material capital input, human capital input and the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth, while technology innovation input may hinder economic growth. As seen by region, a positive correlation also exists between the energy abundance and economic growth in the eastern and western regions, and there is no ‘resource curse' phenomenon either. In all three regions, the human capital input could promote economic growth. Material capital input could promote economic growth in the eastern but hinder economic growth in the western region; the level of opening to the outside world could promote economic growth in the eastern region. It is known through further survey and analysis on the transmission mechanism of resource curse that, at the national level, material capital input, human capital input, and the level of opening to the outside world present positive correlation with energy abundance, indicating that energy development becomes an important transmission factor by strengthening material capital input and human capital input and raising the level of opening to the outside world. However, technology innovation input presents negative correlation with energy development. As seen by region, both the material capital input and human capital input present positive correlation with energy development strength in the three regions. Similar as the eastern region, the level of opening to the outside world presents positive correlation with energy industry development in the middle and western regions; however, the energy development presents negative correlation with technology input level in the western region.     

京津冀都市区经济增长空间分异的GIS分析

基于GIS技术和探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,利用京津冀都市区1995-2007年人均GDP数据,对京津冀都市区经济发展水平、经济增长率及其和初始发展水平动态关系进行了深入的研究。研究表明:(1)京津冀都市区经济差异和空间集聚都呈逐步扩大趋势,空间依赖增强,经济差异和空间集聚呈较高的正相关关系,京津冀都市区经济发展水平空间集聚的增加,在一定程度上加大了经济差异。(2)京津冀都市区内部形成了两大空间集聚区,一个以北京、天津、唐山为核心的高经济发展水平的集聚区;另一个是以承德、张家口和保定为核心的低经济发展水平的集聚区。(3)初始经济发展水平局部空间自相关类型不同的区域,经济增长率与初始发展水平的动态关系不同,初始发展水平高的空间集聚区表现出明显的经济收敛性,而初始发展水平低的空间集聚区中的多数地区则有落入"恶性循环累积陷阱"的倾向。     

关于港口经济和港城一体化的理论分析

运用经济资源配置中的成本—收益分析、区域经济生长的极核理论等 ,对港口的经济性、港城经济一体化发生的内在机理和模型、建设重点等进行理论分析     

Industrial agglomeration externalities,city size,and regional economic development: Empirical research based on dynamic panel data of 283 cities and GMM method

Local governments have long been ardently pursuing the industrial specialization effect (MAR externalities) and industrial diversification effect (Jacobs externalities). Such a pursuit has resulted in severe distortion of resource allocation and negative effect on sustainability of local economic development. Regarding the effect from both MAR and Jacobs externalities on local economic development existing literature records notable disputes. Therefore, for local economic development, one important issue is which externality (MAR or Jacobs) can better bring the effect into play. By studying a panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2012 and applying dynamic plane data GMM method, this paper conducted a regression analysis of the relationship among industrial agglomeration externalities, city size, and regional economic development. The result indicates that with regard to the whole nation, MAR externalities are conducive to regional economy development whereas Jacobs externalities will, to an extent, restrain regional economic development. As regards eastern, middle, and western regions, MAR externalities are conducive only to the economic development of the eastern region; their effects on middle and western regions are insignificant. Moreover, the interaction item between MAR externalities and city size has a significant negative synergistic effect on national economic development and a certain acceleration effect on eastern region as well as a strong negative synergistic effect on the middle region and an insignificant effect on the western region. The interaction item between Jacobs externalities and city size has a positive synergistic effect on only the middle region and has an insignificant synergistic effect on both eastern and western regions. Capital stock and labor input have significant accelerating effects on GDP growth per capita of Chinese cities, whereas material capital and labor input remain primary driving forces for Chinese local economic development. Furthermore, human capital contributes to accelerating urban economic development, whereas government intervention restrains urban economic development.     

Analysis on poverty in mountain areas based on off-farm industries

This paper reveals that agricultural growth trend in China is strongly correlated with the growth of off-farm industries-the curve of net income from off-farm industries reflects the general characteristics of net income of households. That means the increase of net income of farm households is chiefly from off-farm industries,more than from agriculture. The authors therefore conclude that the “poverty“ in mountain areas or the gap between mountain areas and plain areas lies in the underdevelopment of off-farm industries in mountain areas. Finally, the authors make suggestions of strategic adjustment of economic structure: 1) present situation of mountain areas in China should be fully considered; 2) a full industrial system is not our desire; 3) advantageous industries should be promoted to create famous products; 4) industrialization and urbanization in mountain areas should be promoted and so on.     

Understanding Relationship Between Accessibility and Economic Growth:A Case Study from China(1990–2010)

China′s economy and transport infrastructure have both experienced rapid development since 1978, and especially since 1990. Today, China is the second-largest economic entity in terms of GDP and has the largest high-speed rail(HSR) network and the second-largest expressway network in the world. This paper explores the relationship between accessibility and economic growth in China from 1990 to 2010. In the study, the basic research units include 333 prefecture-level cities and four municipalities. We explore a bivariate analysis framework of accessibility and economic growth, and their increase rates, to examine this relationship using long-term panel data. The results indicate that, first, accessibility and economic growth show a significant positive relationship using both cross-section and panel data, while the increase rate in accessibility and GDP indicate no significant relationship using cross-section data and a poor significant relationship using panel data. Second, the distributions of local advantage are uneven. Cities with low local advantage with respect to accessibility and GDP are mainly located in China′s eastern coastal region or the provincial capitals, while those with low local advantage in terms of their increase rates are located in the western region. Third, as China′s economic growth and transport networks have evolved, the distribution of local advantage shows little change in terms of accessibility and GDP, but a greater change in terms of their increase rates, which is largely influenced by the distribution of expressway and HSR networks.