Calculation of the Lightning Potential Index and electric field in numerical weather prediction models

Modern methods for predicting thunderstorms and lightnings with the use of high-resolution numerical models are considered. An analysis of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is performed for various microphysics parameterizations with the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The maximum index values are shown to depend significantly on the type of parameterization. This makes it impossible to specify a single threshold LPI for various parameterizations as a criterion for the occurrence of lightning flashes. The topographic LPI maps underestimate the sizes of regions of likely thunderstorm-hazard events. Calculating the electric field under the assumption that ice and graupel are the main charge carriers is considered a new algorithm of lightning prediction. The model shows that the potential difference (between the ground and cloud layer at a given altitude) sufficient to generate a discharge is retained in a larger region than is predicted by the LPI. The main features of the spatial distribution of the electric field and potential agree with observed data.     

The initialization of nonlinear water waves in a numerical wave flume

This study investigates the initialization of nonlinear free-surface simulations in a numerical wave flume.Due to the mismatch between the linear input wavemaker motion and the kinematics of fully nonlinear waves,direct numerical simulations of progressive waves,generated by a sinusoidally moving wavemaker,are prone to suffering from high-frequency wave instability unless the flow is given sufficient time to adjust.A time ramp is superimposed on the wavemaker motion at the start that allows nonlinear free-surface simulations to be initialized with linear input.The duration of the ramp is adjusted to test its efficiency for short waves and long waves.Numerical results show that the time ramp scheme is effiective to stabilize the wave instability at the start of the simulation in a wave flume.     

A transition in weather over the Agulhas Current

Aircraft observations were used to investigate contrasting weather conditions over the northern edge of the warm Agulhas Current south of George, South Africa, during June 1989. A sea surface temperature front of 7°C over 10 km was observed near 35°S, 23°E. Surface-sensible and latent heat fluxes increased by a factor of five on the warm side. A deepening of the moist unstable layer was indicated by increased equivalent potential temperatures over the warm side. Most significantly, convectively generated turbulence, as inferred from variances in air pressure, increased exponentially with sea surface temperature and surface layer winds doubled south of 35°S. The sea state, initially smooth over the continental shelf, became rough seawards of the northern edge of the Agulhas Current. Numerical model simulations were performed to assess air-sea interactions. Model-simulated thermodynamic variables responded in close agreement with observations, but the increase in cross-frontal winds was not fully resolved. The aircraft observations provide evidence that the Agulhas Current affects the large-scale pressure field and may enhance the rain-bearing capacity of transient weather systems.     

A study on the numerical prediction method for the vertical thermal structure in the Bohai Sea and the Huanghai Sea-Ⅰ. One-dimensional numerical prediction model

In this paper,on the basis of the heat conduction equation without consideration of the advection and turbulence effects,one-dimensional model for describing surface sea temperature (T_s),bottom sea temperature (T_h) and the thickness of the upper homogeneous layer (h) is developed in terms of the dimensionless temperature θ_T and depth η and self-simulation function θ_T-f(η) of vertical temperature profile by means of historical temperature data.The results of trial prediction with our one-dimensional model on T_s,T_h,h,the thickness and gradient of thermocline are satisfactory to some extent.     

基于VB和Surfer的海浪数值预报结果动画显示

本文介绍了一种将Fortran计算程序(DOS程序)和Surfer结合起来实现数据图形化动态浏览的方法.该方法通过结合使用VB函数Shell和Windows API函数Open Process解决了DOS程序在VB中的调用和等待问题,用ActiveX技术解决VB调控Surfer的问题,实现了基于全球地形底图的波高和浪向动画显示.该方法同样可应用于温度、盐度、密度及海流等数值预报结果的可视化,可为海洋业务的分析和预报提供借鉴.     

东海西北部中层冷水垂直热结构数值预报方法研究Ⅰ.一维数值预报模式

文中,以水温垂直剖面的自模性将其由T-Z分布变为θ-η剖面为基础,在考虑海面加热,忽略热平流效应和来自海底的热通量情况下,将海洋分为4层,并在各层内利用其自模函数的积分趋于常量的特性,对引入自模函数的热传导方程进行推导运算,导出描述含中层冷水垂直热结构7个特征量的闭合方程组.当解得这些特征量之后,代入含有自模函数的温度表达式,即获得预报的整个水温剖面.为了检验模式的功能,我们利用东海西北部海域中27个测站,以5月5日和5月10日实测的特征量作为初值,分别试报了5月10日和5月15日的特征量及水温剖面.试报的结果表明:试报特征值和温度剖面与其实测值之间的平均绝对误差,特征温度小于或等于0.23℃,特征深度小于或等于1.18m,而水温剖面小于或等于0.20℃.由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的.     

东海西北部中层冷水垂直热结构数值预报方法研究 Ⅱ.三维数值预报模式

根据含中层冷水海洋垂直热结构的特征,将其分为4层,并考虑来自海面的热力和动力强迫因子、水层界面剪切应力和卷挟热交换、热平流、混合及地形影响等条件下,从原始动量、连续方程组及热传导方程出发,对整个海洋和各水层分别进行垂向积分,导出相应的描述风生界面起伏、各水层平均流场和温度场的闭合方程组.当解得各水层的平均温度场T_k(k=1,2,3,4)后,根据Tk与对应水层界面特征温度间的关系获得后者,最后通过水温剖面表达式获得含中层冷水海洋的三维热结构.为了检验本模式的功能,以时效为5d试报了5月15日研究海域的三维热结构,并将试报结果与实测值进行了比较.结果表明,试报水温的均绝误差为025℃,效果令人满意.     

Exploring conventional tidal prediction schemes for improved coastal numerical forecast modeling

This study provides a practical guide to the use of classical tidal prediction algorithms in coastal numerical forecasting models such as tide and tide-storm-surge models. Understanding tidal prediction parameter formulas and their limitations is key to successfully modifying and upgrading tidal prediction modules in order to increase the accuracy of perpetual interannual simulations and, in particular, storm-surge modeling studies for tide-dominated coastal environments. The algorithms for the fundamental prediction parameters, the five astronomical variables, used in tidal prediction are collated and tested. Comparisons between their estimation using different parameterizations shows that these methods yield essentially the same results for the period 1900–2099, revealing all are applicable for tidal forecasting simulation. Through experiments using a numerical model and a harmonic prediction program, the effects of nodal modulation correction and its update period on prediction accuracy and sensitivity are examined and discussed using a case study of the tidally-dominated coastal regime off the west coast of Korea. Results indicate that this correction needs updating within <30 days for accurate perpetual interannual tidal and mean sea-level predictions, and storm-surge model predictions requiring centimeter accuracy, for tidally-dominated coastal regimes. Otherwise, unacceptable systematic errors occur.     

一次渤海强对流天气系统监测与大风成因探讨

利用FY-2E卫星云图、天气雷达、雷电、海上平台、海岛站及海洋模式产品等资料,对2011年9月1日01—06时出现在渤海湾强对流天气成因进行综合分析。结果表明:位于燕山南麓较弱中β尺度云团,在500 hPa西风急流出口处、低层925 hPa切变线及层结不稳定条件下,触发多单体风暴重新发展,造成西岸区短时强降水天气及冰雹天气;中尺度系统主体入海后南压强度少变,在多单体风暴后部下沉气流与后部冷空气动量下传共同作用下,迅速加大渤海湾海区东北大风的分量,在同时具备天文大潮的条件下导致了南岸局部风暴潮灾害的发生。同步监测显示:云图中尺度象元TBB为-25°—-65℃,对流云团强弱交替变化时间为3—6 h,减弱后迅速转向东北岸区;三部天气雷达径向速度图先后监测到NE向低空急流"牛眼"时空尺度特征,同步垂直风廓线(VWP)反演出NE向低空急流由1000 m下降至300 m动量下传过程,与海岛站、平台监测值接近一致,中部与南部海区转为东北大风时间差为3—4 h;20时探空海岸带与风场垂直和水平切变明显,K指数为33℃,SI指数为-3.8℃,对流有效位能Cape为1555 J/kg;海洋中尺度数值产品3—6 h的K指数及海区辐合线的动态模拟与云图TBB中尺度象元、雷达回波移向相对一致,但风速明显偏小10—12 m/s。     

东南大西洋中低纬海域天气与气候特征

本文利用累积的气象资料、NWW3海浪模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,对东南大西洋中低纬海域9、10月的气候特征进行了分析,同时对一种典型天气过程的高低空形势和海况进行了分析讨论,揭示了高空槽和槽后的地面冷高压东移对海况影响的过程和规律,为今后更好的做好作业期间的气象保障工作提供了有价值的参考。     

A two-phase numerical model for sediment transport prediction under oscillatory sheet flows

To predict sediment transport under oscillatory sheet flow condition, especially for fine sand, is still a challenging research subject in coastal engineering. This paper describes a newly-developed numerical model based on two-phase theory with the use of a one-equation turbulence closure, and its applications in predicting fine sediment suspension in near-prototype oscillatory sheet flow conditions. Model results were compared with comprehensive laboratory measurements of flow velocity and sediment concentration under both symmetrical and asymmetrical oscillatory sheet flows from a large-scale water tunnel. Good agreements between the model results and measurements were achieved and the results demonstrated that the model is capable of reproducing detailed characteristics of sediment entrainment process in the sheet flow regime. The comparisons also revealed the fact that the concentration peaks at flow reversal is associated with the strong vertical sediment transport flux in the pickup layer, which has been widely observed in many laboratory experiments. The effects of flow reversal events on total sediment transport were also discussed.     

Annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics as revealed from OLR data

In this study, the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data of eight years have been used to investigate the annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics. The results of EOF analysis indicate that the first three eigenvectors reflect the essential features in OLR annual variation. However, they contribute little to the interannual change. In comparison, the fourth to the sixth components have very large year-to-year variations. The pronounced anomalies are located over the tropics with east-west dipole pattern. It implies that ENSO events are related closely to the variation of the Walker circulation.     

A model for numerical simulation of nonstationary sonar reverberation using linear spectral prediction

An innovative approach to the numerical generation of nonstationery reverberation time series is presented and demonstrated. The computer simulated reverberation time series are of high quality, in that they are accurate representations of those which would result from an actual sonar system (transmit/receive and horizontal/ vertical beampatterns; pulse type, shape, length, and power; frequency and sampling rate), platform (speed and depth), and environment (wind speed and direction, backscattering strengths, and propagation loss). Volume, surface, and/or bottom reverberation as seen by a multiple beam sonar on a moving platform is generated. The approach utilizes recent developments in linear spectral prediction research in which the spectra of stochastic processes are modeled as rational functions and algorithms are used to efficiently compute optimal estimates of coefficients which specify the spectra. A two-fold sequence is formulated; first, the expected reverberation spectra for all beams are predicted and, second, the stochastic time series are generated from the expected spectra. The expected spectra are predicted using a numerical implementation, referred to as the REVSPEC (reverberation spectrum) model, of a general formulation of Faure, Ol'shevskii, and Middleton. Given the spectra, the Levinson-Durbin method is used to solve the Yule-Walker equations of the autoregressive formulation of linear spectral prediction. The numerical implementation of the approach, referred to as the REVSIM (reverberation simulation) model, produces nonstationary coherent multiple-beam reverberation time series. The formulation of the REVSIM model is presented and typical results given. A comparison is made between the simulation outputs of the REVSIM model and those of the REVGEN (reverberation generator) model, a standard well-accepted time series simulation model, to demonstrate the validity of the new approach.