气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响

本文根据我国的３０年的物候资料和气候资料的统计分析，论证了气温是影响中国木本植物物候的主要因子，在此基础上建立了物候与年平均气温的线性统计模式，又利用此模式分析计算了未来全球年平均气温升高０．５－２．０℃和未来大气中ＣＯ２浓度倍增而增暖情况下，我国主要木本植物物候期的大致变幅。     

近50年北京树木物候对气候变化的响应

采用统计学方法探讨了北京地区1963~1988年间20种树木芽萌动期及1950~2000年间4种树木开花期的变化及其对气温变化的响应情况。结果表明,北京树木芽萌动的早晚主要受冬季气温的影响,冬季及秋末气温的升高使春芽萌动有提前的效应。萌芽早的树木萌动期长,萌芽晚的树木萌动期短,前者对温度的变化反应更敏感,且前者的萌动期长度随着萌动期间(主要在早春)气温的升高而缩短,后者的萌动期长度随着初冬、秋末平均最低气温的升高而延长。始花前2~9旬,特别是前5旬(主要是3~4两个月),气温对始花期影响最显著,该时段内始花期对气温的变化反应最敏感。北京春温升高开花期提前,春温每升高1℃,开花期平均提前3·6天。春季树木开花物候与春季气温的年际、年代间的波动基本对应,但波动幅度不一致。     

贵阳木本植物始花期对温度变化的敏感度

植物物候期的温度敏感度反映了植物是怎样及在何种程度上响应气候变化,研究不同物种物候期的温度敏感度有利于鉴别易受气候变化影响的物种。现有关于始花期的温度敏感度研究主要集中在温带地区,在亚热带地区研究仍较少。本文以位于亚热带的贵阳为研究区,利用1980-2014年60种典型木本植物的始花期观测资料,分析了该地区植物始花期变化趋势及对气温变化的敏感度,评估了样本量大小对敏感度估计稳定性的影响。结果表明：①研究时段内贵阳发生了明显的气候变化,年平均气温显著升高,其中春、秋季的增温比夏、冬季显著。②绝大多数植物(88.3%)的始花期在研究时段内呈提前趋势,其中显著提前的占物种总数的21.7%(P<0.05);60种植物始花期总体的提前趋势为2.89 d/10 a。③绝大多数(88.3%)植物始花期的年际变化与最优时段内平均气温呈显著负相关(P<0.05),所有植物始花期的总体敏感度为-5.75 d/℃。④样本量大小对温度敏感度估计的稳定性有显著影响,15年长序列能将敏感度估计结果的波动范围以99%的概率控制在2 d/℃之内。     

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。     

民勤绿洲-荒漠过渡带典型固沙植物生殖物候对气候变化的响应

通过对民勤绿洲-荒漠过渡带典型固沙植物多枝柽柳(Tamarix ramosissima)、梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)、白刺(Nitraria tangutorum)1974-2009年开花及结实物候的观测,结合同步观测的气象资料,分析了3种植物生殖物候特征对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:(1)研究区年平均气温、年平均空气相对湿度呈增加趋势; 年降雨量波动,变幅不大; 20世纪90年代以来蒸发量呈显著下降趋势。(2)3种植物始花期提前,花期延长; 3种植物结实始期先延迟后缩短,结实期延长; (3)3种植物生殖物候与年降雨量、气温、空气相对湿度及前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温、累计空气相对湿度之间的相关性不一致; (4)3种植物始花期与前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温、累计空气相对湿度的相关性总体上表现为大于年降雨量、年均气温、年均空气相对湿度的相关性; 除空气平均相对湿度对结实始期影响大于前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温和累计空气相对湿度外,其他与开花物候相似,表明植物开花物候和结实物候与前期气象因子有着密切的关系,尤其是物候发生前期累计气象指标。     

1965-2014年北京西郊地区植物观赏期对气候变化的响应

基于1965-2014年北京地区50种植物物候数据和同期日均温等气象资料,运用相关、回归分析法分析了北京地区绿叶观赏期、观花期和秋叶观赏期（开始日、结束日、时间长度）的变化趋势、变化形式及其对气候变化的响应情况。结果表明：① 北京西郊地区50种植物的绿叶观赏期为4月14日-10月15日,观赏期长度为163~219天。观花期为4月29日-5月17日,观花期长度为6~77天。秋叶观赏期为10月15日-11月14日,观赏期长度为16~41天。② 近50年来,北京西郊地区50种植物的3个观赏期都发生了一定程度的变化。绿叶观赏期开始日提前3.1天/10a,结束日推迟3.6天/10a,观赏期延长6.8天/10a。观花期开始日提前1.6天/10a,结束日提前0.5天/10a,观赏期延长1.2天/10a。秋叶观赏期开始日推迟3.6天/10a,结束日推迟1.1天/10a,观赏期缩短2.5天/10a。③ 绿叶观赏期延长主要表现为开始日提前,结束日推迟。观花期延长主要表现为开始日提前程度大于结束日提前程度,春花植物和夏花植物的观花期延长和缩短的表现形式基本一致。秋叶观赏期缩短主要表现为开始日推迟程度大于结束日推迟程度。④ 春季气温升高1 ℃,绿叶观赏期开始日提前3.9天、结束日推迟5.2天;观花期开始日提前3.4天,结束日提前1.9天。秋季气温升高1 ℃,秋叶观赏期开始日和结束日分别推迟5.2天和2.2天。⑤ 将不同观赏期重叠搭配可营造不同色彩和风格的植被景观,进而设计出不同特色的景观观赏主题。植物观赏期的变化可为园林景观创新设计提供有力参考,为植物观赏活动时间的安排提供科学依据。     

黄土高原植被物候对季节性干旱的敏感性响应

在全球变暖的背景下,干旱事件发生频率和强度的增加导致陆地生态系统中植被多样性发生重大变化,研究植被物候对季节性干旱的响应对保护黄土高原的生态系统具有重要意义.基于MODIS遥感归一化植被指数(MODIS NDVI:MOD13Q1)数据及降水和气温逐月格点数据,采用岭回归分析方法,探讨黄土高原植被物候对季节性干旱的敏感性...     

宁波市植物园67种木本植物功能性状对开花物候的影响

开花物候的种间差异除受到气候影响外,还可能与植物功能性状有关。但两者的相关程度在不同地区、气候带间差异较大。文章为了探索功能性状是否对亚热带地区常绿阔叶植物的开花物候有影响,在宁波植物园内对67种木本植物开花物候进行观测,并分析其与4种功能性状（生活型、潜在最大树高、花色和果实类型）之间的关系。结果表明：1) 67种木本植物初始开花、盛花、败花和开花持续的时间分别为3月28日±21.64d、3月30日±27.02 d、4月15日±30.78 d和（23.82±13.31） d;2）乔木初始开花时间和盛花时间显著早于灌木（P<0.05）,但败花时间和开花持续时间在两者间未有显著性差异（P>0.05）,且乔木开花物候的标准差均显著低于灌木,说明乔木开花物候相对于灌木更加稳定;3）广义线性混合效应回归模型结果表明,彩色花朵的败花时间比白色花朵早,潜在最大树高越小的木本植物开花持续时间越长。综上可知,宁波植物园67种木本植物开花物候受功能性状影响,但影响程度与功能性状的类型有关。     

伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应

研究植被物候是理解植被与气候关系的重要途径。在植被对气候变化响应的敏感地区,开展植被物候研究有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响机制。基于2000-2015年MODIS EVI时间序列影像数据,利用Savitzky-Golay （S-G）滤波方法和动态阈值法提取伏牛山地2000-2015年森林植被物候参数,结合气温、降水数据,运用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Sen斜率、ANUSPLIN插值和相关性分析等方法,研究伏牛山地森林植被物候对气候要素（气温、降水）变化的响应。结果表明：① 伏牛山地森林植被生长季始期主要集中在第105~120 d,生长季末期主要集中在第285~315 d,生长季长度主要集中在165~195 d。从海拔梯度看,随海拔升高,生长季始期、末期和长度整体上分别呈显著推迟、提前及缩短趋势。② 生长季始期和生长季末期整体上呈推迟趋势,推迟的像元分别占森林植被的76.57%和83.81%。生长季长度整体呈延长趋势,延长的像元占比为61.21%。生长季始期变化特征主要是由该地区的春季气温降低所导致的。③ 研究区森林植被生长季始期与3月平均气温呈显著偏相关,且呈负相关的区域最多,即3月平均气温降低,导致生长季始期推迟;生长季末期与9月降水呈显著偏相关区域最多,且两者主要呈正相关,即9月降水增加,使生长季末期推迟。植被生长季长度由整个生长期的气温和降水来共同作用,对大多数的区域而言,8月的平均气温和降水与生长季长度的关系最为密切。     

自然植被对气候变化响应的研究:综述

植被-气候关系的研究已经超越了植被地理学、植被生态学的研究范围，而成为全球变化研究的核心内容之一，从而受到地理学家、生态学家等的广泛关注，并开展了大量的研究。本文概述了过去、现在和未来自然植被对气候变化响应研究的主要进展，阐述了自然植被响应气候变化，特别是未来全球气候变化的基本的可能结果。     

中国东北耕地物候期对气候变化的响应(英文)

We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions (the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature (AT) of ≥10℃) in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ (P < 0.01), especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions (P < 0.05). However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 (P < 0.05) in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.     

Spatio-temporal responses of cropland phenophases to climate change in Northeast China

We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions (the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature (AT) of ≥10℃) in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ (P < 0.01), especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions (P < 0.05). However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 (P < 0.05) in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.     

气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁.植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果.植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡.本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群...     

近55 a新疆净生态系统生产力对气候变化的响应

新疆地处干旱和半干旱气候区,明确其生态系统的碳汇大小及其对气候变化的响应对研究中国干旱区植被碳汇及其对陆地碳平衡的贡献具有重要意义。基于最新地面气象观测数据,利用大气植被相互作用模型AVIM2（Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model 2）,在0.05°×0.05°经纬度空间网格上估算分析了1961-2015年新疆净生态系统生产力（NEP）的时空分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：近55 a新疆NEP平均值为14.4 gC·m^-2,没有明显变化趋势。空间上看,约40%地区的NEP呈下降趋势,主要分布在天山两麓的城市人口聚集区;而60%地区NEP呈上升走势,其主要分布在新疆昆仑山脉、天山山区和人烟稀少的荒漠地区。新疆NEP对降水量变化更为敏感,气温的变化对NEP的影响并不显著。虽然新疆平均碳汇随着年降水量的变化而在源与汇之间波动,但是从多年平均来看,新疆仍然为碳汇区。     

近30年来藏北高原湖泊变化对气候波动的响应

According to the analysis of the climate materials including the topographic map in 1975, the TM and CBERS satellite remote sensing materials from the 1980s to 2005 as well as the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, maximum depth of snow and the biggest depth of frozen soil in the past 45 years, the water level area of four lakes at the southeast of Nagqu, Tibet including Bam Co, Pung Co, Dung Co and Nuripung Co show a distinct trend of expansion in the past 30 years. In 2005, the water level area of the above four lakes increased by 48.2 km², 38.2 km², 19.8 km² and 26.0 km² respectively compared to 1975, with the respective increase rate of 25.6%, 28.2%, 16.2% and 37.6%. That is closely related to the warming and humidified climate change in the recent years such as rise of the air temperature, increase of the precipitation, decrease of the evaporation rate and permafrost degradation. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40761005 Author: Bian Duo (1966–), Professor, specialized in application of remote sensing and GIS on environment.     

甘肃空中水汽含量对全球气候变化响应

利用1961-2000年的水汽压资料,采用EOF、小波分析和计算Petitt变点等方法,分析了40 a甘肃大气中水汽含量的变化。结果表明:甘肃水汽变化以全区一致为主,呈上升趋势,1987年突变后更加明显;西部水汽上升明显于东部,在1978年后更加突出;水汽变化具有明显的阶段性;各季水汽变化差别明显,其中夏季线性增加的趋势最明显,冬季次之,春秋两季线性斜率接近于0,增减趋势不明显;水汽对全球变化响应的敏感区域主要在黄河附近;水汽变化以2～4 a振荡周期为主;水汽含量变化与青藏高压和赤道太平洋海温关系密切。     

The response of lake change to climate fluctuationin north Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in last 30 years

According to the analysis of the climate materials including the topographic map in 1975, the TM and CBERS satellite remote sensing materials from the 1980s to 2005 as well as the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, maximum depth of snow and the biggest depth of frozen soil in the past 45 years, the water level area of four lakes at the southeast of Nagqu, Tibet including Bam Co, Pung Co, Dung Co and Nuripung Co show a distinct trend of expansion in the past 30 years. In 2005, the water level area of the above four lakes increased by 48.2 km2, 38.2 km2, 19.8 km2 and 26.0 km2 respectively compared to 1975, with the respective increase rate of 25.6%, 28.2%, 16.2% and 37.6%. That is closely related to the warming and humidified climate change in the recent years such as rise of the air temperature, increase of the precipitation, decrease of the evaporation rate and permafrost degradation.