相关型岩土参数分析和选用

岩土参数与应力环境、沉积条件、风化程度和埋藏条件等因素相关,其统计值具有空间变异性和相关性,采用非相关型岩土统计参数进行岩土工程设计具有不经济性。通过分析岩土参数的变化规律及与其相关的主要因素,说明岩土参数可用深度或参数与地层顶面或底面的距离作为相关参数进行相关型判别,论述相关型参数的判定标准和相关型标准值的计算方法,采用图解法分析相关型参数多种取值方法的可靠性。以华南某核电厂常规岛地基和某变电站边坡为例,介绍了相关型岩土参数标准值经验公式在岩土设计优化中的应用。分析表明：具有规律性变化的岩土参数宜选择恰当的相关参数划分为相关型,相关参数可取参数与地层顶面或底面的距离,相关型岩土参数标准值可使岩土设计方案更具合理性和经济性。     

岩矿石标本真电参数的测试方法与测试系统(WXE)的研制

现有岩矿标本电参数的测试系统,所测的都是视电参数。本文研究了测试岩矿标本真电参数的方法。它通过测试系统隐含的本底电参数,将实测的视参数转换为真参数。据此,研制了新型岩矿标本真电参数测试系统(WXE)。     

非参数回归法在孔隙度参数预测中的应用

目前有很多利用地震属性进行储层参数预测的方法,多数方法都是针对一种特定的参数模型而制定的统计方法,即只有在一定的参数模型中才能使用的统计方法.实际应用中,由于地震属性与储层参数之间的关系十分复杂,事先无法给出合适的、具体的参数模型,使用参数模型就有可能产生较大误差.本文简要介绍了非参数回归预测方法的基本原理和方法特点,对如何分析和选取具有明确物理意义的、反映储层参数横向变化较为敏感的、与储层参数关系较为密切的地震属性进行了讨论.用非参数回归法对大港唐家河工区进行了孔隙度参数的平面分布预测,表明该方法在储层参数预测技术以及油藏描述中将会有广阔的应用前景.     

沉积盆地中古地貌恢复的方法与思路——以准噶尔盆地西山窑组沉积期为例

古地貌恢复需要借助两类参数,即特征参数(CP)和属性参数(PP).前者主要包括了残留地层厚度参数、剥蚀厚度参数、压实校正参数和古水深恢复参数,后者包括了古湖泊、古物源和古环境参数等一系列沉积学研究参数.单参数的研究仅是古地貌恢复的基础工作,而两类参数的对比分析才是古地貌恢复的核心.准噶尔盆地西山窑组沉积期古地貌恢复的成功实例证实了本文研究思路的可行性和准确性.     

双洞隧道施工引起地表移动的多参数反分析研究

应用随机介质理论计算隧道开挖引起的地表移动是目前广泛使用的方法,在关键参数的取值上反分析是最有效的手段。在双洞隧道的反分析问题上,通常认为2个隧洞的参数相同而采用双参数反分析,但这种做法不利于反映实际情况,为此文中提出为每个隧洞引入各自计算参数进行多参数反分析。实际算例表明,双洞4参数的分析结果优于双参数的分析结果。但是,4参数反分析问题复杂性大大提高,传统的模式搜索方法不能很好地搜索到最优参数。为克服该问题,采用单纯形混合加速遗传算法作为双洞隧道4参数反分析问题的求解方法。实际的应用及测试表明,该方法能高精度的、稳定的搜索出全局最优参数。     

坐标转换参数的求解方法及其应用

根据坐标转换参数的解算模型,介绍几种常见的坐标转换参数的求解方法及其参数个数与精度;探讨选择坐标转换参数的条件及转换参数的应用,从而阐明转换参数对GPS技术的推广和全球资料的统一的重要作用。     

萨克拉门托模型参数初值分析方法研究

萨克拉门托(Sacramento)流域模型参数较多,关系比较复杂,要有效地率定其参数,首先应该确定参数的物理范围。按影响土壤蓄水状态和径流变化的敏感程度对参数进行分类,阐述了利用流量过程线或流域特性初步分析估计萨克拉门托土壤蓄水量模型参数初值的方法。在实例中提供了参数优选中的实际处理经验。     

基于Matlab方法确定VG模型参数

根据中国科学院栾城试验站大田土壤剖面所采土样实测土壤负压h和土壤含水率θ实验数据,采用van Genuchten模型来描述土壤水分特征曲线(h-θ曲线),VG模型中的参数利用Matlab非线性拟合函数来确定,通过对四参数模型和三参数模型的比较表明,四参数模型拟合的参数与三参数模型中的参数非常接近,但四参数模型能够更好地拟合实测数据,误差比三参数模型相对较小。且计算值与实测值的残差平方和范数小于0.07%,拟合较好。     

考虑初始结构性参数的结构性黄土边坡稳定性评价

针对应力比结构性参数存在的问题,建立了结构性黄土初始结构性参数与含水率、围压之间的关系,在变形过程中建立了更为合理的结构性参数与广义剪应变的关系,并将其引入结构性黄土的强度理论中。在此基础上,通过数值计算对边坡结构性参数分布的变化规律及潜在滑动面的确定进行了评价。研究结果表明：建立的初始结构性参数可以反映黄土边坡的结构性参数初始分布场;结构性参数变化的上限是初始结构性参数,下限为结构性完全丧失后的结构性参数,且其值等于1.0;在结构性黄土边坡稳定性分析中,通过结构性参数的分布规律可在一定程度上确定边坡的潜在滑动面,但仅适用于塑性区域呈明显的带状集中分布的情况。     

岩土力学参数空间变异性的集合卡尔曼滤波估值

岩土参数具有结构性和随机性的空间变异特征,该特征导致岩土参数具有不确定性。以地质统计学作为岩土参数空间变异性分析的理论基础,将分布于研究区的岩土参数视为区域化变量,变异函数既描述了岩土参数整体的空间结构性变化,又描述了其局部的随机性变化,用变异函数理论模型作为描述岩土参数空间变异规律的数学模型。引入集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）分析方法,利用时空分布的观测数据,对岩土参数空间变异性进行估值。数值算例表明,EnKF能够有效地融合观测数据,较好地提供岩土参数空间变异性的估值。     

岩土工程的可靠度研究浅述

本文分析了常规定值设计法的不足,指出了可靠度设计方法在工程结构设计中的科学性、合理性和经济性,简单论述了可靠度的计算方法,对岩土工程的特点和不确定性的来源进行了分析;最后简要介绍了可靠度分析方法在岩土工程中的应用前景。     

Impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification

This paper aims to investigate the impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification. First, the copula approach is presented to model the bivariate distribution of geotechnical parameters. Thereafter, the AIC scores are adopted to identify the best-fit marginal distribution and copula. Second, the variation of AIC scores because of small sample size is investigated using simulated data. Finally, the impact of the variation of AIC scores on identification of the best-fit marginal distribution and copula is examined. The minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are also suggested to obtain a correct identification of the probabilistic models. The results indicate that the AIC scores estimated from a small sample exhibit large variation. The variation of the AIC scores has a significant impact on probabilistic model identification. The marginal distributions and copulas have a low percentage of correct identification when sample size is small. The percentages of correct identification for the marginal distributions and copulas increase with increasing sample size. The correlation coefficient between geotechnical parameters has a much larger impact on probabilistic model identification than the COV of geotechnical parameters. The suggested minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are useful for guiding practical geotechnical site investigation.     

The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.     

Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis Applied to Slope Stability: A Case Study From Sungun Copper Mine

Nowadays, there are many new methods for slope stability analysis; including probabilistic methods assessing geotechnical uncertainties to develop safety factors. In this paper, a reliability index analysis for the Sungun copper mine slope stability is evaluated based on three methods of uncertainties consisting Taylor series method, Rosenblueth point estimate method and Monte-Carlo simulation method. Sungun copper mine will be one of the Iran’s biggest mines with final pit’s height of 700 meters. For this study two of its main slopes were assessed, one dipping to the NE (030) and the other to the SE (140). Probability density function of cohesion and angle of friction for the slopes were developed using limit equilibrium methods. These shear strengths were then used to determine the probability density function of safety factor and reliability index using the probabilistic methods. Results of the probabilistic analysis indicate that with ascending values of the uncertainties the reliability index decreases. Furthermore, it was determined that with the Monte Carlo simulation the seed number used has little effect on the reliability index of the safety factor especially with seed numbers in excess of 1200. Variations in the overall reliability index of safety factor were observed between the two slopes and this difference is explained by the differences in complexities of the geology within the cross-section.     

Distribution of the factor of safety,in geotechnical engineering,for independent piecewise linear capacity and demand density functions

In many geotechnical engineering cases, the factor of safety may be defined as the ratio of the capacity, of the geotechnical structure or its support elements, to the pertinent demand. By representing the capacity and the demand as independent piecewise linear random variables, an analytic solution is obtained for the probability density and cumulative distribution functions of the factor of safety. Thus, solutions for the calculation of the mean value, the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values of the factor of safety, are provided. Application of the developed analytical solutions, to the probabilistic analysis of a published case of rock spalling in a deposition tunnel complex, follows. The methodology allows for the parametric evaluation of the effect of specific design variables to the distribution of the safety factor and to the probability of failure. The closed form solution may be programmed as a computer code that may run easily on a tablet or netbook or even on a smartphone. It proves useful for the probabilistic design of a variety of geotechnical applications, such as foundations, tunneling, mining, underground roof reinforcement, and earth retaining structures, and permits decisions to be taken in terms of risk and reliability.     

Genetic algorithms in probabilistic finite element analysis of geotechnical problems

In application to numerical analysis of geotechnical problems, the limit-state surface is usually not known in any closed form. The probability of failure can be assessed via the so-called reliability index. A minimization problem can naturally be formed with an implicit equality constraint defined as the limit-state function and optimization methods can be used for such problems. In this paper, a genetic algorithm is proposed and incorporated into a displacement finite element method to find the Hasofer–Lind reliability index. The probabilistic finite element method is then used to analyse the reliability of classical geotechnical systems. The performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) is compared with simpler probability methods such as the first-order-second-moment Taylor series method. The comparison shows that the GA can produce the results fairly quickly and is applicable to evaluation of the failure performance of geotechnical problems involving a large number of decision variables.     

β分布的参数确定及其在岩土工程中的应用

对岩土工程中随机变量的空间概率特征进行了统计分析,介绍了确定β分布各参数的迭代方法,提出了经验公式简化迭代过程,有效地处理了随机变量分布范围的估计问题,并阐明了β分布在可靠度领域中的适用性。作为对比,对同一样本采用了其他分布进行拟合。分析结果表明,β分布拟合精度高于其他分布。     

Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA

Probabilistic analysis has been used as an effective tool to evaluate uncertainty so prevalent in variables governing rock slope stability. In this study a probabilistic analysis procedure and related algorithms were developed by extending the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach was used to analyze rock slope stability for Interstate Highway 40 (I-40), North Carolina, USA. This probabilistic approach consists of two parts: analysis of available geotechnical data to obtain random properties of discontinuity parameters; and probabilistic analysis of slope stability based on parameters with random properties. Random geometric and strength parameters for discontinuities were derived from field measurements and analysis using the statistical inference method or obtained from experience and engineering judgment of parameters. Specifically, this study shows that a certain amount of experience and engineering judgment can be utilized to determine random properties of discontinuity parameters. Probabilistic stability analysis is accomplished using statistical parameters and probability density functions for each discontinuity parameter. Then, the two requisite conditions, kinematic and kinetic instability for evaluating rock slope stability, are determined and evaluated separately, and subsequently the two probabilities are combined to provide an overall stability measure. Following the probabilistic analysis to account for variation in parameters, results of the probabilistic analyses were compared to those of a deterministic analysis, illustrating deficiencies in the latter procedure. Two geometries for the cut slopes on I-40 were evaluated, the original 75° slope and the 50° slope which has developed over the past 40 years of weathering.     

大样本岩土参数概率分布的正态信息扩散推断

在重要的岩土工程中,确定大样本岩土参数的概率分布对岩土工程稳定性和可靠性分析有着极其重要的意义。为此,基于积分均方误差最小计算得到的最优窗宽,提出了推断大样本岩土参数概率密度函数的正态信息扩散法。该方法基于信息扩散原理,从试验样本和信息论的角度出发,充分利用样本提供的数据信息,而不是先假定成经典的概率分布曲线拟合检验,数学意义和物理意义更加充分和严密。以推断压缩指数Cc的概率密度函数为例,分析了窗宽对信息扩散估计结果的影响规律,说明了该方法在大样本岩土参数概率密度函数推断方面的合理性。用该方法推断了大样本岩土抗剪强度参数的概率密度函数,通过K-S检验,验证了该方法的正确性和实用性。     

The geological and geotechnical design model in tunnel design: estimation of its reliability through the R-Index

ABSTRACT

In this paper recent improvements of the R-Index method are presented, based on its application on several projects in various geological and geotechnical contexts. The R-Index derives from a probabilistic procedure conceived for estimating the reliability level of the Geological and Geotechnical Design Model used to design underground structures, especially tunnels. The R-Index takes into account the geological complexity of a site and recommended empirical scores (based on expert judgement) for different quality levels of geological surveys and geotechnical and geophysical investigations.