塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地近地面臭氧浓度变化特征及影响因素分析

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中地区2010年6月10日-2012年3月20日地表臭氧浓度连续自动观测数据,结合相应气象要素资料,对地表臭氧质量浓度的日、周、月、季节变化与不同天气条件下日变化特征进行了分析,同时探讨了影响臭氧浓度变化的主要因素。结果表明：①臭氧浓度日变化具有明显的单峰型日变化规律,夜间变化平缓,白天变化剧烈。09:00前后达到最低值,18:00前后达到最高值,出现时间稍迟于其他城市地区。②臭氧浓度变化具有“周末效应”现象。最高值出现在星期日,最低值出现在星期三;星期一至星期三浓度逐渐降低,星期四又逐渐上升。③最高月平均浓度出现在2010年6月,其浓度为89.6 μg·m-3,最低月平均浓度出现在2012年1月,其浓度为32.0 μg·m-3,2010年6-12月,浓度逐月降低。④春、夏季臭氧浓度较高,秋季和冬季明显低于春季和夏季,与大中型城市变化特征基本一致。⑤臭氧浓度日变化最剧烈的是晴天,其次为小雨天气,阴天日变化平缓。沙尘暴出现前,臭氧小时平均浓度变化较小,沙尘暴开始时浓度下降,且下降速度较快。⑥辐射变化也具有单峰型日变化规律,臭氧浓度变化明显晚于辐射变化,太阳辐射的强弱直接影响光化学反应速度,从而导致臭氧浓度的变化。⑦沙尘天气臭氧日平均浓度高于有间隙小雨天气和晴天。相对湿度、风速、风向、日照日数同时影响近地面臭氧浓度的变化,臭氧污染的发生是多种因素共同作用的结果。     

冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响

基于山西省境内较为均匀分布的70 个地面气象观测站1970-2012 年冬季逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法分析了负积温、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温的变化特征,采用累积距平法确定其突变点,以突变点为界分为前后2 个时间段,依据前后时间段等值线的变化分析冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响。结果表明：山西省负积温呈现显著减少趋势（通过了α=0.01 的显著检验）,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温呈现不显著升高趋势;突变后,负积温平均减少了103.4℃,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温分别升高了0.8℃和0.7℃;在3 个指标中,决定山西省冬小麦能否种植的关键因子是负积温和年极端最低气温,最冷月平均气温的影响较小;冬季气候变暖后,平均状况下,冬小麦可种植区域面积扩大了约2.9×10⁶ hm²,扩大52%,80%保证率下,冬小麦种植面积扩大了约2.3×10⁶ hm²,扩大79%。     

2005—2017 年拉萨小时降水变化特征

利用拉萨站 2005—2017 年汛期（5～9 月）逐时地面观测资料,分析了拉萨逐年小时降水（降 水量、降水频次和降水强度）的变化特征,结合谐波分析方法讨论了小时降水的日循环信号,最后 对比了不同时长和等级的小时降水出现频次及其对总降水的贡献。结果表明：（1）拉萨逐年汛期 小时降水以“单峰型”结构为主,峰值出现在夜间。（2）拉萨汛期小时降水变化为全日周期,其中盛 夏（7～8 月）期间的日循环信号最强。（3）拉萨汛期降水按持续时间可分为：短历时（1～3 h）、中历 时（4～6 h）和长历时（＞6 h）3 种类型,其中短（长）历时降水出现频次最多（少）,但其贡献率最小 （大）,短历时降水的日峰值出现在下午到前半夜,而中历时和长历时降水的日峰值出现在后半 夜。（4）各等级小时降水中小雨（3＞r≥1）和中雨（r≥3）对降水总量的贡献率明显大于微雨（1＞r≥ 0.1）,随着降水等级的上升,夜雨概率增大。     

南极长城湾底层海水温度季节变化特征分析

本文使用南极长城湾 1 987年 3月至 1 988年 2月连续观测资料 (每小时观测一次 ) ,对该海湾底层海水温度的季节变化特征进行了分析研究     

新疆北部的降水量线性变化趋势特征分析

应用新疆北疆地区以及天山山区26个气象站1961-2005年的月降水量资料,分析了新疆北部地区、天山山区、北疆沿天山经济带、北疆平原、北疆北部流域、北疆西部流域6个区域的年、暖季(5-10月)、冷季(11-4月)以及各月的降水量线性趋势特征。结果显示:6个区域及26个气象站的年降水量45a年来均呈线性增加趋势;暖季降水量6个区域均呈线性增加趋势,北疆区、天山山区最显著;冷季降水量6个区域全部呈明显的线性增加趋势;月降水线性趋势变化较显著的月份为1、2、7、11、12月,其它各月没有通过0.10显著性水平检验,12个月中增湿趋势站数明显占优势的月份可占80%左右,3、9月呈下降趋势的站数较多。增湿结果已给新疆带来风吹雪、雪崩、畜牧业雪灾、洪水、融雪性洪水、泥石流、滑坡等灾害。     

敦煌湖泊湿地生态系统地表辐射平衡特征

利用2013年干旱环境背景下敦煌湖泊湿地生态系统的辐射数据,分析了该地区的辐射变化特征。结果表明：不同的天气背景,各辐射分量的日变化过程差异较大,晴天变化曲线呈平滑的单峰型,多云天气平滑度不如晴天,阴天、雨天和沙尘天气呈现了不规则的多峰型变化;各季辐射通量的日变化都呈单峰型,但收入量差异较大,极值出现的时间也不相同。向下短波辐射、向上和向下长波辐射、净辐射月总量的变化表现出明显的季节性,夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季,向上短波辐射的月总量的季节变化不太明显。各辐射分量日平均值具有明显的季节性,夏、春季较大,秋、冬季较小,最大值出现在6月或7月,最小值出现在12月或1月。生长季的地表反照率要低于非生长季,各季日平均反照率都是早晚高,中午低,呈"U"型。     

基于标准化降水指数的陕西黄土高原地区1971—2010年干旱变化特征

利用陕西黄土高原地区68个气象站降水资料,选择标准化降水指数（SPI）为干旱指标,分析了该地区最近40年（1971—2010年）的月、季、年干旱特征,在此基础上利用经验正交函数(EOF)分解方法进行了干旱分区,并分析了全年及各季节干旱站次比和干旱强度的年际变化。结果表明:EOF分解第1、2、3特征向量分别反映了陕西黄土高原地区干旱的一致变化、南-北反向分布和中部-南北反向分布的不同特点;年度干旱站次比和干旱强度有明显的阶段性分布特点,在年代之间有重-轻-重-轻的变化趋势。2001年以来,年度和夏、秋、冬季干旱强度都有不同程度降低,春季干旱有增强趋势。陕北和关中地区的春季、夏季干旱变化趋势相反,秋季、冬季干旱变化趋势一致。地区平均每年出现干旱月3.8个,几乎每年都有干旱月出现,最多的一年可出现6—9个干旱月。     

哀牢山北段地区气候特征及变化趋势

以哀牢山北段地区不同位置的景东（西侧盆地）、徐家坝（山顶）和楚雄（东侧盆地）为研究对象,利用三地1980～2005年同期气候观测资料,通过统计分析,探讨了哀牢山东、西侧盆地及山顶气温和降雨特征及长期变化趋势。结果表明：哀牢山北段地区最热月均出现在6月;最冷月,西侧盆地和山顶为1月,东侧盆地最冷月为12月;降雨的季节差异十分显著,雨季降雨量占全年的85％以上,以7月降雨量最多。从气候的长期变化趋势来看,年、季和月平均气温均呈现显著的升高趋势,气温的显著升高主要发生在干季,增温率为干季〉年〉雨季。最冷月均温增温率最大,最热月均温没有显著增加,气温年较差呈减小趋势。研究表明,哀牢山北段地区山顶及两侧盆地均呈现显著的变暖趋势,与植物生存直接相关的∑t≥0℃有效积温和∑t≥10℃活动积温也显著增加。气温的变化具有显著的空间差异,增温速率为东侧盆地〉山顶〉西侧盆地。山地迎风坡面（西坡）气温垂直递减率显著减小,背风坡面（东坡）气温垂直递减率整体呈增大趋势。降雨整体呈增加趋势,不同季节间降雨的变化差异显著,年降雨量的增加主要由于雨季降雨的增加,干季降雨呈微弱上升或下降趋势,降雨的增加率为东侧盆地〉山顶〉西侧盆地。哀牢山北段地区干季的干热气候特征进一步加剧,这种变化趋势在山地的背风坡面（东坡）表现得更加剧烈。     

西藏近35 年日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素

采用气候倾向率方法, 对西藏25 个站1971~2005 年逐月日照时数以及对日照有影响的 总云量、低云量、水汽压和降水量等资料进行了统计分析。结果表明: 近35 年西藏年日照时 数表现为极显著的减少趋势, 平均每10 年减少34.1 h。除冬季变化不大外, 其它各季均为减少趋势, 特别是近25 年, 夏、秋季日照时数减幅加大, 年日照时数减少明显。西藏20 世纪70 年代春、夏季日照充足, 秋、冬季日照偏少; 80 年代季日照时数均为正距平, 以秋季最为明显; 90 年代与80 年代截然相反, 季日照时数均偏少, 尤其是夏季。年日照时数异常偏多 年份均出现在20 世纪80 年代, 而异常偏少年份多发生在20 世纪90 年代。阿里地区年、季照时数的显著增加与总云量的显著减少、降水量减少有关, 其它大部分站点年、季日照时数显著下降与大气水汽压的增加关系密切。     

Measurement and Analysis of Formation Conditions of Dew in Carex lasiocarpa Marsh

In order to investigate the dew amounts and analysis formation conditions of dew by examining the correlations between dew amounts and meteorological factors in Carex lasiocarpa marsh in the Sanjiang Plain, the dew amounts and several meteorological factors were monitored during the growing season from June to September in 2005 and 2008 at the Sanjiang Mire Wetland Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Dew was collected by woodstick made by poplar tree in Carex lasiocarpa marsh and the amounts were estimated by subtraction method. The results indicated that average daily accumulated dew amounts reached the peak in August. The highest dew amounts in Carex lasiocarpa marsh were 0.201 mm/d, and the most frequent dew volume ranged from 0.08 mm/d to 0.14 mm/d. The amounts correlated positively with relative humidity, dew point temperature, and water vapor pressure. Whereas it correlated negatively with wind speed. The dew production in Carex lasiocarpa marsh more frequently occurred under the conditions of wind speed around 2.0 m/s, the water vapor pressure above 9 hPa; the relative humidity between 90% and 95% and dew point temperature above 6 ℃.     

Effects of seasonal breeding on productive performance of pastoral goat herds in northern Kenya: a longitudinal analysis of growth in kids and body weight development of does

This paper investigates whether liveweight development of kids and dams can be improved by introducing a seasonal breeding regime in goat herds maintained under pastoral management in northern Kenya. The experimental treatment consisted of six consecutive mating seasons. Traits studied comprise relative growth rates of kids (g kg^−0·75 day⁻¹) from birth until 2 years of age, liveweight development of kids (kg) from birth until 2 years of age, and body weight development (kg) of does over a reproductive cycle of 1 year duration. No systematic effect of mating season on birth weights of kids could be detected, whereas the experiment succeeded in demonstrating that mating season has an impact upon body weight development of kids. The highest average preweaning weight gains were achieved by kids born in the period from October to May, while growth performance was seriously compromised when birth took place at the middle of the long dry season. However, the differences between mating season groups had almost completely disappeared by 1 year of age. The mating season treatment produced marked differences in weight development curves in does. During gestation, does were advantaged when they were mated just prior to the long rainy season, while the largest relative liveweight gains over the entire reproductive cycle were achieved by does mated during the short rains. It is concluded that seasonal breeding does not confer any major advantage in terms of liveweight production of young livestock, except that mating during the short dry season from December to January should be avoided. Similarly, a clear effect on body weights of does at the end of the reproductive cycle could only be observed when mating occurred during this period.     

基于ASCAT散射计数据的2012年南极周边海面风场特征分析

利用2012年全年的ASCAT散射计风场数据,对55°S以南的南极周边海域海面风场开展了时空分布特性统计分析。结果表明:对于南极周边海域,7月平均风速最大,为12 m·s-1,12月平均风速最小,为8 m·s-1,冬季大于夏季;该区域平均风速主要在9—12 m·s-1之间,全年出现的天数280天,约占全年的77%;风速10 m·s-1所占比例也是冬季大于夏季。从全年来看,南极周边海域在冬季(4—6月)和春季(7—9月)风速普遍较大。该区域0°W—60°W海域内风速明显比其他海域要小。     

MODIS-based air temperature estimation in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and neighboring areas

Climatic conditions are difficult to obtain in high mountain regions due to few meteorological stations and, if any, their poorly representative location designed for convenient operation. Fortunately, it has been shown that remote sensing data could be used to estimate near-surface air temperature (Ta) and other climatic conditions. This paper makes use of recorded meteorological data and MODIS data on land surface temperature (Ts) to estimate monthly mean air temperatures in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. A total of 72 weather stations and 84 MODIS images for seven years (2001 to 2007) are used for analysis. Regression analysis and spatio-temporal analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. monthly mean Ta are carried out, showing that recorded Ta is closely related to MODIS Ts in the study region. The regression analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. Ta for every month of all stations shows that monthly mean Ts can be rather accurately used to estimate monthly mean Ta (R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.90 and standard error between 2.25℃ and 3.23℃). Thirdly, the retrieved monthly mean Ta for the whole study area varies between 1.62℃ (in January, the coldest month) and 17.29 ℃ (in July, the warmest month), and for the warm season (May-September), it is from 13.1℃ to 17.29℃. Finally, the elevation of isotherms is higher in the central mountain ranges than in the outer margins; the 0℃ isotherm occurs at elevation of about 4500±500 m in October, dropping to 3500±500 m in January, and ascending back to 4500±500 m in May next year. This clearly shows that MODIS Ts data combining with observed data could be used to rather accurately estimate air temperature in mountain regions.     

沙漠与城市气溶胶散射系数变化比较

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠大气环境观测试验站和中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所承担的乌鲁木齐大气成分观测站2010年1月1日至12月31日的单波段积分浊度计的观测资料,分析了沙漠（塔中）和城市（乌鲁木齐）两种不同下垫面地区的气溶胶散射系数的变化特征。（1）散射系数小时平均值：塔中地区变化范围在39.6～8 442.8 Mm^-1,平均值318.4 Mm^-1;乌鲁木齐变化范围在28.9～6 590.0 Mm^-1,平均值451.5 Mm^-1;乌鲁木齐小时平均值在1 000 Mm^-1以上的高值区间大于塔中地区。（2）散射系数日变化：塔中呈现单峰变化,其中最大值387.0 Mm^-1出现于凌晨02：00,最小值276.4 Mm^-1出现于午后的17：00;乌鲁木齐呈现三锋变化,3个峰值分别出现于09：00、14：00、22：00,与塔中地区存在明显差异。（3）散射系数月均值变化：塔中的月平均值最大是4月,为500.2 Mm^-1,最小是2月,为145.9 Mm^-1;乌鲁木齐月均值最大在2月,为1 086.3 Mm^-1,最小值在7月,为101.1 Mm^-1,两地区月均值变化整体呈现相反的现象。（4）散射系数季节变化：塔中地区春季>夏季>秋季>冬季;乌鲁木齐冬季>秋季>春季>夏季。     

华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.     

基于Modis地表温度的青藏高原东部及其邻近地区气温估算(英文)

Climatic conditions are difficult to obtain in high mountain regions due to few meteorological stations and, if any, their poorly representative location designed for convenient operation. Fortunately, it has been shown that remote sensing data could be used to estimate near-surface air temperature (Ta) and other climatic conditions. This paper makes use of recorded meteorological data and MODIS data on land surface temperature (Ts) to estimate monthly mean air temperatures in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. A total of 72 weather stations and 84 MODIS images for seven years (2001 to 2007) are used for analysis. Regression analysis and spatio-temporal analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. monthly mean Ta are carried out, showing that recorded Ta is closely related to MODIS Ts in the study region. The regression analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. Ta for every month of all stations shows that monthly mean Ts can be rather accurately used to estimate monthly mean Ta (R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.90 and standard error between 2.25℃ and 3.23℃). Thirdly, the retrieved monthly mean Ta for the whole study area varies between 1.62℃ (in January, the coldest month) and 17.29℃ (in July, the warmest month), and for the warm season (May-September), it is from 13.1℃ to 17.29℃. Finally, the elevation of isotherms is higher in the central mountain ranges than in the outer margins; the 0℃ isotherm occurs at elevation of about 4500±500 m in October, dropping to 3500±500 m in January, and ascending back to 4500±500 m in May next year. This clearly shows that MODIS Ts data combining with observed data could be used to rather accurately estimate air temperature in mountain regions.     

TRENDS IN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THE CONTINGUOUS UNITED STATES, 1940-1983

A temperature departure index is calculated for each month of the year for 10 regions within the contiguous United States utilizing a total of 193 sites for the 44-year period 1940 to 1983. Five-year moving averages of the index values are plotted on graphs for each region by month in an attempt to detect trends toward an increase or decrease in the occurrence of well above or well below normal monthly temperatures in recent years. Considerable regional differences are found with respect to the size and temporal trend of monthly temperature departures. For example, the Northwest and Southwest regions are often exceptions to the average national trend supporting the concept of considerable east-west differences in temperature variation patterns. Only April, June and December show increases in temperature departure index values in the most recent years for a majority of regions while the summer months of July and August do not exhibit a clear national trend. For a majority of months (January, February, March, May, September, October, November), there has been a decrease in the occurrence of unusually above or below normal monthly temperatures for most regions during the late 1970s/early 1980s.     

Effects of Flow Regulation in Flow Regime on the Murrumbidgee River,South Eastern Australia: an assessment using a daily estimation hydrological model

In this paper, modelled hydrological data are used to quantify the effects of regulation on the flow regime of the lower Murrumbidgee River in the period 1970–1998. Although other studies report historical changes in flood frequency and duration, this study uses modelled natural daily flow data rather than pre-regulation records or aggregated modelled monthly data. The comparison of modelled natural and regulated daily flows shows the magnitude of changes to mean and seasonal flows, flood peaks and flow duration. At gauges upstream of major irrigation off-takes, mean flows have been increased by approximately 10 per cent, flood peaks have been reduced by 21–46 per cent, and there has been a seasonal redistribution such that flows in summer and autumn have been increased at the expense of those in winter and spring. At gauges downstream of the major irrigation off-takes, mean flows have been reduced by 8–46 per cent, flood peaks have been reduced by 16–61 per cent, and flows have been decreased in all seasons.     

Comparison of dew point temperature estimation methods in Southwestern Georgia

Recent upward trends in acres irrigated have been linked to increasing near-surface moisture. Unfortunately, stations with dew point data for monitoring near-surface moisture are sparse. Thus, models that estimate dew points from more readily observed data sources are useful. Daily average dew temperatures were estimated and evaluated at 14 stations in Southwest Georgia using linear regression models and artificial neural networks (ANN). Estimation methods were drawn from simple and readily available meteorological observations, therefore only temperature and precipitation were considered as input variables. In total, three linear regression models and 27 ANN were analyzed. The two methods were evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and other model evaluation techniques to assess the skill of the estimation methods. Both methods produced adequate estimates of daily averaged dew point temperatures, with the ANN displaying the best overall skill. The optimal performance of both models was during the warm season. Both methods had higher error associated with colder dew points, potentially due to the lack of observed values at those ranges. On average, the ANN reduced RMSE by 6.86% and MAE by 8.30% when compared to the best performing linear regression model.