Revisiting the 'pivot': the influence of Halford Mackinder on analysis of Uzbekistan's international relations

Since the end of the Soviet Union, many foreign policy intellectuals have peculiarly identified the Republic of Uzbekistan as the locus of Mackinder's 1904 'pivot' designation. A century on from his original 'Geographical pivot of history' lecture, this paper examines the work of a Russian, an Uzbek, and an American who use Mackinder to understand contemporary Uzbekistani geopolitical orientations, in particular with reference to the USA. Drawing on critical work on the history of geopolitics, it highlights that whilst these texts claim objectivity, they betray political and subjective foreign policy choices. It suggests that whilst the revival of interest in Mackinder testifies to the continued attraction of his ideas, this has, with rare exceptions, been based upon a superficial reading of both his work and the body of secondary literature, and that this raises both disciplinary and ethical concerns.     

The (re)making of the western 'geographical tradition': some missing links

Summary A brief investigation of certain missing links in the narration of the history of geography focuses on the need to consider the contribution of non-western geographical and scientific knowledges to the making of 'European discovery' and therefore to the development of a putatively western geographical tradition.     

Beyond the 'Outer Crescent': the Mackinder century in New Zealand geopolitics

This paper proposes that, although Mackinder never mentions New Zealand in his influential 1904 paper and despite the absence of a formal Kiwi geopolitical tradition, 'The geographical pivot of history' provides a useful framework with which to approach New Zealand geopolitics. The argument uses two Mackinderian ideas to suggest three phases in New Zealand's security relationships during the Mackinder century. First, New Zealand's commitment to Mackinder's 'pivot area' notion of 'imperial defence' and 'collective security' characterized its dependent security phase. Between 1973 and 1990/91 there was a transitional security phase towards Mackinder's second 'global interconnectedness' idea. Third, this shift led to a current interdependent security phase which is characterized by the recognition that New Zealand's security relationships, despite its geographic isolation, are mutually dependent on political, economic, and military events around the world. The impact of 11 September 2001 and the consequent 'war on terror' are also considered. The paper concludes by suggesting that New Zealand's post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq point to the continuing relevance of Mackinder's 'The geographical pivot of history' to New Zealand geopolitics.     

交通规划与融资机制的演变——美国高速公路百年史回顾

回顾美国高速公路发展的百年历史,探讨交通规划、融资机制及其二者之间的相互关系。通过对比不同时期的规划理念,发现早期规划已经考虑了交通与土地利用的关系,中间的州际高速时期则注重公路自身能力提高,后期则更加强调综合协调。从财政受益原则角度对高速公路的财税政策进行了比较分析,发现早期的物业税与后来的燃油税在融资功能与激励功能两方面存在很大差异;并从财政转移支付角度阐述了联邦政府的交通资金分配政策变化对规划理念及其实施效果的影响。研究美国公路发展历史,对于理解研究不同尺度空间概念具有重要的地理学意义,同时对我国交通政策规划和空间管治亦具有借鉴作用。     

过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期

根据近年国内外相关研究结果,分析了北半球与中国过去2000 年冷暖变化的阶段性,辨识了百年尺度暖期的起讫年代及其与20 世纪温暖程度的差别。结果表明:(1) 最近新建的多数北半球温度变化序列显示公元1-270 年温暖;271-840 年冷暖相间,但总体偏冷;841-1290年温暖;1291-1910 年寒冷;1911 年以后再次转为温暖;这些冷暖阶段虽分别与Lamb 指出的罗马暖期(约公元前1 世纪-4 世纪中期)、黑暗时代冷期(约4 世纪末-10 世纪前期)、中世纪暖期(约10 世纪中期-13 世纪末)、小冰期(约15-19 世纪) 以及20 世纪增暖大致对应,但各阶段的起讫时间与Lamb确定的时段存在一定差别。(2) 尽管过去2000 年冷暖变化过程及其变幅大小在中国境内各个区域间并不完全一致,但从全国平均看,中国与北半球百年尺度的冷暖波动阶段基本一致,仅起讫年代存在一定差异;其中公元1-200 年、551-760 年、941-1300 年及20世纪气候相对温暖,其他时段则相对寒冷。(3) 多数序列显示中世纪期间北半球的温暖程度至少与20 世纪相当。中国941-1300 年间的最暖百年和最暖30 年(暖峰) 的温度也略高于20 世纪,551-760 年间的最暖百年与20 世纪基本相当,但1-200 年间最暖百年的温暖程度则较20 世纪略低。     

千百年尺度祁连山地区干湿变化对暖期的响应

全球升温导致区域干湿格局转变,千年尺度中全新世暖期和百年尺度中世纪暖期可以为探究现代的气候趋势提供历史相似型。通过湖相沉积、冰芯、孢粉、树轮等古气候记录和PMIP3/CMIP5计划的古气候模型模拟数据对比分析,结果表明,祁连山地区中全新世暖期（7.2—6.0 ka BP）东亚夏季风强盛,降水较多,气候温暖湿润;中世纪暖期（950—1250 AD）与小冰期表现为暖干—冷湿气候机制。现代观测数据显示,祁连山地区呈现暖湿化,但现代的气候机制与自然因子主导下暖期的响应机制差异较大,表明了人类活动对自然发展下气候环境的影响。因此,自然因素与人类活动共同作用是准确预测研究区未来干湿格局的基础。     

The geographical pivot of history and early twentieth century geopolitical culture

This article offers a re-interpretation of the geographical pivot of history by setting it in the context of the international relations and strategic debates of the early twentieth century, and by engaging with the historiography of British foreign policy during the Edwardian period. The overall argument is that the prospective effort of Mackinder does not appear as merely speculative but is in fact rather well grounded in the fundamentals of British foreign policy and more directly relevant than hitherto assumed. Identifying a trend towards a shift in the equilibrium between land power and sea power, Mackinder emphasized – and perhaps over-emphasized – a Russian threat to British interests but considered that Germany alone only posed a minor threat. Such analysis seems to be remarkably in tune with British geopolitical culture around 1904, and with the ideas of the British Prime Minister Arthur Balfour. The way in which Mackinder further stressed that a combination of the two main continental powers would represent a major peril for Britain has hitherto been treated rather dismissively. This article however shows how twice during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–5 Wilhelm II attempted to bring such an alliance about. This article attempts to reassess the actual impact of the geographical pivot of history and more broadly of Mackinder's thought, usually considered minimal, on British foreign policy before 1914. Finally, a number of issues that seem to deserve further attention are suggested, in particular that of the influence exerted by Mackinder before 1914, and that of the genesis of Mackinder's conception of the 'pivot zone' or 'heartland'.     

“一带一路”倡议下中国与中亚合作的战略支点选择

中亚在“一带一路”倡议中具有重要地缘价值,而中国与中亚的合作需以战略支点为依托。相关研究多关注国家尺度和定性方法,较少深入到对区域尺度战略支点及其空间结构的分析中,可能导致支点范围较大、针对性较弱。故本文主要从区域尺度入手,基于对各类空间要素的综合评价,对战略支点的空间结构进行分析。研究表明,乌鲁木齐等中国城市、阿拉木图等中亚城市以及霍尔果斯等边境口岸在各类节点中具有综合优势。基于可达性和城市网络分析结果,结合中国与中亚合作现状,可将“乌鲁木齐-阿拉木图经济走廊”作为战略支点,采取“两核四轴四带”的空间结构。创新点在于从区域尺度认识战略支点并分析其空间结构,有利于通过尺度上推进一步撬动高尺度合作。     

Spatial pattern of global submarine cable network and identification of strategic pivot and strategic channel

As a kind of large-scale connectivity infrastructure, submarine cables play a vital role in international telecommunication, socio-economic development and national defense security. However, the current understanding about the spatial pattern of global submarine cable network is relatively limited. In this article, we analyze the spatial distribution and connectivity pattern of global submarine cables, and identify their strategic pivots and strategic channels. The main conclusions are as follo...     

Millennial and centennial variations in zircon U‐Pb ages in the quaternary indus submarine canyon

Use of deep‐water sediments in submarine fans to reconstruct changing erosion onshore is based on the premise of relatively simple transport between source and sink. However, debate continues regarding the degree of sediment buffering and recycling in the sediment transport process. In this study, we investigate the origin of sediment in the Indus Submarine Canyon since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 ka) using zircon U‐Pb dates. Zircon grains in the submarine canyon are resolvably different from those at the river mouth, at least before 6.6 ka, implying a disconnection between the river mouth and the canyon up to that time. Sand may be stored near the river mouth as sea level rose, while finer‐grained sediment was directly transferred into deeper water. Since 1 ka the upper canyon has shown big and rapid provenance changes, most notably a sharp increase in erosion from Nanga Parbat, whose influence is minor in the modern river. Such rapid changes imply a lack of buffering in the recent past. The modern river contrasts with sediments in the canyon in terms of its zircon U‐Pb age populations and may be influenced by significant anthropogenic impact on the terrestrial drainage basin, especially damming.     

在纪念郑万钧先生诞辰100周年座谈会 暨《树木志》第四卷首发式上的讲话

各位领导、各位专家、各位来宾 :随着科学发展观和中央林业决定的深入贯彻落实 ,以生态建设为主的林业发展战略日益深入人心 ,我国林业事业正焕发出新的生机与活力 ,呈现出全国动员、盛世兴林、加快发展的喜人局面。今天 ,我们在这里隆重召开“纪念郑万钧先生诞辰 1 0 0周年座谈会” ,深切缅怀我国著名林学家、树木分类学家、林业教育学家 ,近代林业开拓者之一郑万钧先生的光辉业绩 ,以此弘扬老一辈林业科学家求真务实、开拓创新的精神 ,这对于加速我国林业科技进步 ,努力把我国林业推向快速健康协调持续发展的新阶段具有特别重要的意义。郑…     

Development of center pivot irrigation farmlands from 2009 to 2018 in the Mu Us dune field,China: Implication for land use planning

The Mu Us dune field in China has become a focal region for research of the prevention and control of desertification. Agricultural practices in this area have been modernized in recent years, evidenced by the development of Center Pivot Irrigation(CPI) farmlands.However, the impacts of CPI farmlands on combating desertification remain poorly understood. This study chose the southeastern part of the Mu Us dune field as a study area to investigate the variations of CPI farmlands from 2009 to 2018...     

基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析

气候变化对径流的影响是全球变化研究领域的重点问题。论文采用BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年(850—2012年)气候与水文变化数据,基于Budyko假设与傅抱璞公式开展了中世纪气候异常期(MCA)、小冰期(LIA)和现代暖期(MWP)黄河中、上游径流变化及其归因分析。结果表明：(1)在3个气候特征期之间,上游地区径流与气候冷暖变化位相相同,MWP时期径流最高,LIA时期径流最低;中游地区径流则与气候冷暖变化位相相反,LIA径流最高,MCA径流最低。(2)径流对各因子的敏感性不仅存在地理差异,而且受特征期之间气候冷暖转变的影响。中游地区径流对降水和潜在蒸发的弹性系数(绝对值)大于上游,且在冷转暖过程中的弹性系数(绝对值)略大于暖转冷过程。同时,持续偏暖过程中、上游地表变化的弹性系数(绝对值)均明显大于暖转冷与冷转暖过程。(3) 3个特征期之间径流差异主要由降水主导,地表变化影响甚微,但潜在蒸发的作用存在地域差异,上游地区潜在蒸发部分抵消了降水变化的贡献而中游地区潜在蒸发则加强了降水导致的径流变化。研究量化了黄河流域各因子对过去千年百年尺度径流变化的贡献,明确了不同气候转变期各因子贡献的...     

210Pb and 137Cs dating methods in lakes: A retrospective study

²¹⁰Pb has been used for more than two decades to provide the geochronology of annually deposited sediments and to construct pollution histories. Evidence from some lakes suggests that this radionuclide may be adequately mobile to compromise dating reliability. This study provides one test of that possibility by comparing recent measurements of ²¹⁰Pb and trace metals to ones carried out more than 20 yrs in the past. ¹³⁷Cs dating is used to confirm sediment accumulation rates in the recent cores. In the three Connecticut, USA, lakes studied, sediment accumulation rates changed abruptly to higher values between 40-50 yrs ago (increasing by factors of 2.2, 2.9, and 3.0). In all three lakes, rates calculated from ²¹⁰Pb distributions both above and below this horizon agreed, within measurement uncertainty, in recent and older cores. Furthermore, when the older data were corrected for 20 yrs of burial, the changes in slope in ²¹⁰Pb distributions occurred at the same depth in each pair of cores. The depth of sharp peaks in concentrations of trace metals also matched. In general, this evidence supports the idea that sediments in these lakes have simply been buried, without significant diagenetic remobilization of ²¹⁰Pb and trace metals . Nevertheless, some important differences were also observed. For two of the three lakes, there was a significant difference in average sediment accumulation rate during the past 33 yrs as calculated from ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb in the recent cores. Most potential causes for this difference can be ruled out, and it appears that one of the two nuclides is remobilized compared to the other. There were also significant differences in the total inventories of both ²¹⁰Pb and trace metals (both up to 2 ×) between recent and older cores in some cases. This may be due to dissimilar sediment focusing, since it is not known for certain whether the new cores were collected at exactly the same sites as in the past.     

Digital map conflation: a review of the process and a proposal for classification

This article is centred on analysing the state of the art of the conflation processes applied to geospatial databases (GDBs) from heterogeneous sources. The term conflation is used to describe the procedure for the integration of these different data, and conflation methods play an important role in systems for updating GDBs, derivation of new cartographic products, densification of digital elevation models, automatic features extraction and so on. In this article we define extensively each conflation process, its evaluation measures and its main application problems and present a classification of all conflation processes. Finally, we introduce a bibliography which the reader may find useful to further explore the field. It tries to serve as a starting point and direct the reader to characteristic research in this area.     

Diatom assemblages from Adirondack lakes (New York,USA) and the development of inference models for retrospective environmental assessment

Detrended canonical coreespondence analysis (DCCA) was used to examine the relationships between diatom species distributions and environmental variables from 62 drainage lakes in the Adirondack region, New York (USA). The contribution of lakewater pH, Al_m (monomeric Al), NH₄, maximum depth, Mg, and DOC (dissolved organic carbon) were statistically significant in explaining the patterns of variation in the diatom species composition. Twenty-three and sixteen diatom taxa were identified as potential indicator species for pH and Al_m, respectively (i.e. a taxon with a strong statistical relationship to the environmental variable of interest, a well defined optimum, and a narrow tolerance to the variable of interest). Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models were developed to infer lakewater pH (r ²=0.91), Al_m (r ²=0.83), DOC (dissolved organic carbon) (r ²=0.64), and ANC (acid neutralizing capacity; r ²=0.90). These variables are of key importance in understanding watershed acidification processes. These predictive models have been used in the PIRLA-II (Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification-II) project to answer policy-related questions concerning acidification, recovery, and fisheries loss.