青海高原地区近250 a来年平均气温变化及突变分析

用多条树轮重建的青海高原近250 a平均气温序列,利用线性趋势、小波变换分析和突变检测等方法对近250 a青海高原年平均气温的年际变化及突变特征进行了综合分析,结果表明:250多a来青海高原年平均气温波动明显,30 a滑动平均表现出1779～1811年和1934～2006年年平均气温偏高,其中年平均气温最高出现在1998年为1.3℃,1741～1778年和1812～1933年年平均气温偏低,其中年平均气温最低出现在1823年为-1.5℃,年气温总体呈上升趋势;在20 a以上相对大尺度上,年平均气温冷、暖交替的特征明显,经历了7个冷、暖交替阶段,在2～3 a,28 a左右,48 a和110 a时间尺度上的周期变化都比较明显。     

遵义市气温的多时间尺度诊断及突变分析

用一维Morlet小波变换对遵义市（3个站）1951--2006年56a气温资料序列作多时间尺度诊断,用Mann—Kendall法和滑动t检验法对气温进行突变检测,结果表明近56a来遵义市年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,平均增温速率为0．106℃／10a;年平均气温变化的周期以4a、14a和19a为主,说明遵义市年平均气温变化的年际和年代际特征均比较明显;年平均气温变化突变点是1996年,是一次由冷向暖转变的突变。     

北疆地区1955—2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析

依据北疆地区1955-2009年月平均气温、降水资料,运用线性倾向的最小二乘法分析北疆年、季平均气温及降水的演变趋势;为增强突变分析结果的可信度,运用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验及累计距平法对北疆年平均气温、降水的进行突变检测;运用Morlet小波变换分析了年平均气温、降水的周期性特征。结果表明：近55a北疆地区年平均气温及降水量在波动中整体呈上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.332℃/10a及0.016(mm/d)/10a,且发生突变时间分别在1988-1990年之间及1986年较明显;四季平均气温及降水也呈增加趋势,其中冬季增温最大,夏季较其它各个季节增温不显著,秋季在四季中降水量增加显著;年平均气温变化在8a,12-13a以及21a时间尺度上的均存在周期振荡,其中8a振动周期表现稳定,为1955-2009年的主要周期;年平均降水量在5-7a,12-14a及32a时间尺度上振荡比较明显,其中5-7a及12-14a较32a振动周期表现较弱,32a为1955-2009年的主要周期,其周期表现稳定。     

当阳市水稻产量与气候变化的相关分析

根据1959-1998年当阳市的日平均气温、日降水量以及同期水稻产量资料,采用morlet复值小波变换与小波功率谱方法,分析了近40 a来当阳市水稻气候产量、降水量以及气温的多时间尺度的时频特征,并采用交叉小波方法探讨了气候产量与降水量、气温的相关。研究结果表明:水稻气候产量与降水量均具有5 a以及2-4 a的显著周期变化,与气温均存在2-4 a的显著周期变化,而且气候产量与降水量、气温在时域分布上也存在着某些相似性特征;气候产量与降水量、气温存在着密切的相关,相关关系随振荡周期尺度的不同而不同,且气候产量与降水量在5 a和9 a时间尺度上的相关程度最大,与气温在11 a时间尺度的相关程度最大;气候产量与降水量在2~4 a、6~10 a、11 a以及16~20 a时间尺度上呈负相关而在准5 a时间尺度上呈正相关,与气温在2~4 a、6~8 a、10~12 a以及16~20 a时间尺度上呈正相关而在准5 a以及9 a时间尺度上呈负相关。     

河南省气温变化与北极涛动指数的关系研究

利用连续小波变换和交叉小波变换方法,分析了北极涛动指数和河南省近50多年来月平均气温距平序列的时频变化特征以及两者之间的关系。结果表明:河南省气温和北极涛动都存在着不同时间尺度的周期性变化,且各周期分量的强度不同。北极涛动指数具有2-4 a、8 a左右年际尺度和12-25 a、35 a以上年代际尺度的周期振荡;河南气温存在准2 a、4 a、6-8 a、10-20 a、28 a和35 a以上时间尺度的周期性变化。AO振荡过程影响河南省气温变化的时频结构,且主要表现在年代际时间尺度上。     

遵义市近56a来夏季气温及降水变化的特征分析

选取1954-2009年历年逐月平均气温及累积降水资料,采用墨西哥帽函数（MHF）,对遵义市近56a来夏季气温及降水的时间序列进行分析,揭示了遵义市气温及降水变化在多时间尺度上的复杂结构,找出了不同时间尺度下夏季气温和降水序列变化的周期和突变点。结果表明：遵义市夏季气温及降水存在多时间尺度特征,在年代际变化上存在显著性周期,大尺度周期变化嵌套着小尺度的周期变化,其中主周期约为21a。遵义气温与降水变化有比较好的对应关系,即偏暖期对应降水的偏少期,而偏冷期则对应降水的偏多期。     

中国东北地区近百年气温序列的小波分析

 利用1905-2005年中国东北地区哈尔滨、长春、沈阳和大连的气温时间序列资料,在分析气温变化结构的基础上进行小波分析,以揭示气温变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构。同时,分析了不同时间尺度下气温序列变化的周期性变化规律和突变点。结果表明：近100 a来中国东北地区的平均气温呈升高趋势,尤其在20世纪80年代以后升高趋势更加显著,升温率达到0.165 ℃/10 a。气温存在2～3 a、8～12 a、20～25 a和45 a左右时间尺度的多重时间尺度结构的变化特征。     

大兴安岭林区生长季气温的变化分析

研究旨在分析大兴安岭林区生长季气温的变化特点及规律,从而提高气象灾害预警能力,为气象防灾减灾提供理论依据。基于大兴安岭林区8个气象站点1980-2018年逐日平均气温观测资料,运用趋势性分析、经验正交函数（EOF分析）、小波函数（Morlet小波）等统计方法,分析了大兴安岭林区生长季气温时空变化特征。结果表明：大兴安岭林区生长季平均气温呈增加趋势,自20世纪80年代以来生长季平均气温明显增加。生长季平均气温第1特征向量呈现一致正变化,区内低值中心在北极村附近,高值中心在呼玛附近,其振幅以西北向东南逐渐递减,受地理位置影响较大,区域特征明显。近38 a时间尺度上生长季平均气温存在28 a、22 a和8 a 3种明显的周期变化。     

河南省气温变化与北极涛动指数的关系研究

利用连续小波变换和交叉小波变换方法,分析了北极涛动指数和河南省近50多年来月平均气温距平序列的时频变化特征以及两者之间的关系.结果表明:河南省气温和北极涛动都存在着不同时间尺度的周期性变化,且各周期分量的强度不同.北极涛动指数具有2～4 a、8 a左右年际尺度和12～25 a、35 a以上年代际尺度的周期振荡;河南气温存在准2 a、4 a、6～8 a、10～20 a、28 a和35 a以上时间尺度的周期性变化.AO振荡过程影响河南省气温变化的时频结构,且主要表现在年代际时间尺度上.     

山东省近55年夏季降水和平均气温的多时间尺度分析

利用最近55a山东夏季降水和平均气温资料，统计分析了降水和平均气温的变化特征，并用Meyer小波变换方法，对山东省夏季降水和平均气温进行了分析，发现山东夏季降水呈明显下降趋势，气温略呈上升趋势。小波分析显示两者在中短周期上基本一致，即它们的中短周期基本在11a，5～6a和2～3a左右的时间尺度上变动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动和海气相互作用的周期，说明山东省夏季降水和平均气温的周期变化主要受太阳黑子活动和海-气相互作用的影响。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.