A solar cycle timing predictor - the latitude of active regions

The Schatten and Sofia (1987) dynamo theory prediction for the amplitude of smoothed annual sunspot number in the present solar cycle, No. 22, of 170 ± 25 was predicted to peak in 1990 ± 1 year. This peak was earlier and larger than most other estimates made in early 1987. New observational evidence shows sunspot values rising very rapidly, generally supporting the exceptionally large cycle predicted, however, solar cycle 22 appears even more exceptional than expected, in that the early cycle rise has exceeded all previous cycle increases. We use a Spörer butterfly method to examine solar cycle 22. We show from the latitude of active regions, that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 ±8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.This paper was presented at the third meeting of the Solar Cycle Workshop, held in Sydney, Australia, January 9–13, 1989.     

The 44–60 Å flux during the ascending period of the solar cycle no. 20 (1964–67)

An attempt is made to separate the true 44–60 Å flux from the nominal one measured by the Solrad 8 satellite during 1966.The 44–60 Å flux recorded at Arcetri through the telemetry of the Solrad 6, 7 and 8 satellites is also examined in order to study its time variations in comparison with other indices of solar activity.     

The influence of spectral resolution on line blending and wavelength positions in the solar UV spectrum

For representative sections of the solar UV spectrum ( 2765 Å– 2790 Å, 2765 Å– 2805 Å) the line density and the accuracy of wavelength positions of absorption features are derived as function of the spectral resolution. In low resolution spectrograms unresolved blends may shift intrinsic wavelength positions of absorption lines by amounts up to a few tenths of the spectral resolution.The results obtained for the solar spectrum are applied to the flux spectrogram of CMi.Guest Investigator in the BUSS Program jointly performed by the Space Research Laboratory, Utrecht, The Netherlands, and the NASA L. B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, U.S.A.     

Resonance Scattering of 30.4 nm Chromospheric Radiation by Coronal Singly Ionized Helium Observed with EIT

A diffuse emission is observed above the solar limb in the 304 Å channel of the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the SOHO spacecraft. Part of this emission is attributed to the presence of residual singly-ionized helium in the solar corona, which resonantly scatters the intense helium Lyman alpha radiation of the chromosphere. This emission can be distinguished from other coronal emissions in the EIT bandpass. Maps of the helium ion density integrated along the line of sight are derived. These agree well with models in the low latitude, closed magnetic field regions of the solar corona. However, the helium ions' abundance seems to be enhanced in the polar, open field regions above coronal holes. This may be related to acceleration processes of the fast solar wind close to the Sun.     

Structure and evolution of magnetic network features

Magnetogram series, obtained with the 512-diode-array magnetograph at KPNO, are used to investigate several properties of magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere. Average size, lifetime and inclination of the flux elements are determined. Further we discuss the question, how magnetic flux appears and disappears on the solar surface. At last it is investigated, if our observational results are consistent with Piddington's flux-rope-fibre theory of solar magnetism.Visiting Astronomer at Kitt Peak National Observatory.     

Increase of the Magnetic Flux From Polar Zones of the sun in the Last 120 Years

Lockwood, Stamper, and Wild (1999) argued that the average strength of the magnetic field of the Sun has doubled in the last 100 years. They used an analysis of the geomagnetic index aa. We calculated the area of polar zones of the Sun, A _pz, occupied by unipolar magnetic field on H synoptic magnetic charts, following Makarov (1994), from 1878 to 2000. We found a gradual decrease of the annual minimum latitude of the high-latitude zone boundaries, _2m, of the global magnetic field of the Sun at the minimum of activity from 53° in 1878 down to 38° in 1996, yielding an average decrease of 1.2° per cycle. Consequently the area of polar zones A _pz of the Sun, occupied by unipolar magnetic field at the minimum activity, has risen by a factor of 2 during 1878–1996. This means that the behavior of the index aa and consequently the magnetic flux from the Sun may be explained by an increase of the area of polar caps with roughly the same value of the magnetic field in this period. The area of the unipolar magnetic field at the poles (A _pz) may be used as a new index of magnetic activity of the Sun. We compared A _pz with the aa, the Wolf number W and A^* -index (Makarov and Tlatov, 2000). Correlations based on `11-year' averages are discussed. A temperature difference of about 1° between the Maunder Minimum and the present time was deduced. We have found that the highest latitude of the polar zone boundaries of the large-scale magnetic field during very low solar activity reaches about 60°, cf., the Maunder Minimum. It is supposed that the _2m-latitude coincides with the latitude where _r=0, with (r,) being the angular frequency of the solar rotation. The causes of the waxing and waning of the Sun's activity in conditions like Maunder Minimum are discussed.     

Угловые Флуктуации Реликтового излучения, порождаемые космологической турбу лентностью

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On the relationship between polar faculae and large-scale magnetic field

We investigate a latitude–time distribution of polar faculae observed at Ussuriysk Observatory in years 1966–1986. The distribution is compared with the longitude-averaged (zonal) magnetic field of the Sun calculated from the data obtained at Mount Wilson Observatory in the years 1966–1976, and at Kitt Peak National Observatory during the period from 1976 to 1985. We found that slow, poleward-directed migration of the polar faculae zones occurring during the course of the solar cycle is not a continuous process, but it contains several episodes of appearance and fast poleward drift of new zones of polar faculae. At the rising phase of the solar cycle, new zones of polar faculae appear at latitudes as low as 40°, but the ones observed during the declining phase of the solar cycle originate at higher latitudes of 50–55°. Such episodes of appearance and fast migration of the polar faculae zones are associated with the poleward-directed streams of magnetic field originated at low latitudes. Moreover, we found some evidence for existence of an additional component of the polar faculae activity that reveals an equatorward migration during the course of the solar cycle. We also investigated a relationship between the number of polar faculae, n, and absolute magnetic flux _z of the zonal mode of the solar magnetic field. We found that within the polar zones of the Sun, substantial correlation between temporal variations of n and _z takes place both on the time scale of the solar cycle and on a shorter time scale of 2–4 years. The relationship between the number of polar faculae and magnetic flux may be approximated by a linear dependence n=0.12_z (where _z is expressed in 10²¹ Mx), except for time interval 1977 through 1980 for which the factor of proportionality is found to have a systematically larger value of 0.20.     

Absolute flows in the solar transition region

It is the objective of the present study to establish an absolute scale for flows in the solar transition region in observations obtained with the UVSP/SMM. By use of the polar limbs as reference one finds that the downflows range between 3 and 10 km s^–1. The brighter regions show the largest downward flows.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

The solar Lα flux near solar minimum

After being turned off in 1972 the OSO-5 satellite was reactivated during the summer of 1974 for one year. The University of Paris experiment designed to monitor the solar L flux operated almost perfectly during that period which occurred near a minimum in solar activity. This new set of data is presented here, showing that neither the total L flux nor the flux emitted at the center of the line correlate with the solar activity indices in the same manner as previously found at higher levels of activity.These new observations confirm that the solar L flux varies approximately by a factor of two from solar maximum to solar minimum.Furthermore, the lower boundary of the transition region seems to be strongly perturbated near solar minimum, since the flux variations observed at the center of the L line are drastically different from all those previously reported. This seems to be related to the presence of large coronal holes over the Sun.     

О наблю дениях вспышек звезд в инфракрасных лучах

(Kilyachkoet al., 1978) , . l ( I II). (Kilyachkoet al., 1978) : (1) 800 Å , , UV Cet. EV Lac; (2) UV Cet EV Lac 8000 Å , ; (3) 8000 Å . — MO-KS; (4) 1–3 m.     

A search for discrete gamma-ray sources of energy greater than 2×1012 eV

The results of the observations to search gamma-ray sources with the energy greater than 2×10¹² eV, which were made in Crimean Astrophysical Observatory during the years 1969–73 are presented. A technique of the detection of the EAS Cerenkov flashes was used.The quality of the data obtained is analysed. The criteria for the selection of the data free from meteorological variations are considered.It was shown that two objects, namely, Cyg X-3 and Cas -1, may be the sources of high-energy gamma quanta. It is probable that the object with the coordinates =05^h15^m, =+1° is the source of gamma-rays as well. An unidentified object Cas -1 is variable: gamma-ray flux was observed twice — in Sepember–October 1971 and in December 1972. It is possible that the flux from Cyg X-3 has a period of 4.8 hr.

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I I , I I , - >2.10¹² . I . I , I I, I ., - -1 Cyg -3- -I . , =0515 ·=+1° -.I -1 I: I J I- - 1971 1972 . Cyg -3, , - T=4.8 .

     

Secular perturbations in general planetary theory

Based on a general planetary theory, the secular perturbations in the motion of the eight major planets (excluding Pluto) have been derived in polynomial form. The results are presented in the tables. The linear terms of second order with respect to the planetary masses and the nonlinear terms of first order up to the fifth (and partly seventh) degree with respect to eccentricities and inclinations were taken into account in the right-hand members of the secular system. Calculations were carried out by computer with the use of a system that performed analytic operations on power series with complex coefficients.

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A mechanism of helicity variations on the Sun

Helicity of solar magnetic fields plays an important role in dynamo theories of the solar cycle. The helicity has been known to vary with the main 11-year period (Hale's cycle). Recent observations have revealed significant helicity variations on a shorter time scale, with a characteristic period of approximately 2 years. We suggest an explanation for the observed variations of the magnetic helicity, based on our model of the double magnetic cycle of solar activity. The quasi-biennial variations of the helicity are the consequence of the influence of erupted magnetic fields of the main cycle on the helicity in the regions of generation of the high-frequency component of magnetic field. This model suggests that the low-frequency component is generated at the base of the convective zone due to large-scale radial shear /r of angular velocity . The high-frequency component may be generated in the subsurface region due to latitudinal shear / or due to the radial shear in this region.     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

Микрофлуктуации электрического поля на фронте ударной волны в модельном эксперименте

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On the Power in the Legendre Modes of the Solar Radial Magnetic Field

The power in the different modes of an expansion of the solar radial magnetic field at the surface in terms of Legendre polynomials,P , is calculated with the help of a solar dynamo model studied earlier. The model is of the Babcock–Leighton type, i.e., the surface eruptions of the toroidal magnetic field – through the tilt angle, , formed by the magnetic axis of a bipolar magnetic region with the east-west line – are the sources for the poloidal field. In this paper it is assumed that the tilt angle is subject to fluctuations of the form, = ()+ <> where <> is the average value and () is a random normal fluctuation with standard deviation which is taken from Howard's observations of the distribution of tilt angles. For numerical considerations, negative values of were not allowed. If this occurred, was recalculated. The numerical integrations were started with a toroidal magnetic field antisymmetric across the equator, large enough to generate eruptions, and a negligible poloidal field. The fluctuations in the tilt angle destroy the antisymmetry as time increases. The power of the antisymmetric modes across the equator (i.e., odd values of ) is concentrated in frequencies, _p, corresponding to the cycle period. The maximum power lies in the =3 mode with considerable power in the =5 mode, in broad agreement with Stenflo's results who finds a maximum power at =5. For the symmetric modes, there is considerable power in frequencies larger than _p, again in broad agreement with Stenflo's power spectrum.     

Спектр и поляризация источника синхротронного излучения при релятивистском разлете его компонент

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A comparison between photospheric and chromospheric quiet-Sun magnetograms

Photospheric (Fei 5324.19 Å line) and chromospheric (H line) magnetic fields in quiet-Sun regions have been observed in the solar disk center by using the vector video magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station of Beijing Astronomical Observatory. Observational results show that the quiet-Sun magnetic elements in the solar photosphere and chromosphere present similar magnetic structures. Photospheric and chromospheric magnetograms show corresponding time variations. This suggests that the magnetic fields in quiet-Sun regions present different 3-D magnetic configurations compared to those in solar active regions.     

Исследование устойгивости периодигеских движений в окрестности коллинеарных точек либрации

1937 - (, 1938). , , , , . , . . (, 1938), , . - (, 1938; Szebehely, 1967)., , . . - (, 1938), . — — . , , . , . . , . , , . . (, 1944). , .

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In 1937, the Celestial Mechanics and Cosmogony section of the Sternberg State Astronomical Institute undertook the task of evaluating the Gylden-Moulton hypothesis on the origin of the Gegenshein from the standpoint of celestial mechanics. That investigation, which the authors themselves considered preliminary, contains nonetheless a series of important results. For example, G. N. Duboshin showed that in the planar, circular, restricted three-body problem, periodic motion of finite amplitude in the neighborhood of a collinear libration point is unstable according to Lyapunov's criterion both in the proper and in the orbital sense. The latter result is incompatible with the above named hypothesis, and thus appears as one of the serious objections among the many known negative conclusions relative to the existence of the Gylden-Moulton cluster.Unfortunately, most of the specific problems which arose in the above named research have not been considered since. One of these, the problem of the stability of three-dimensional periodic orbits in the neighborhood of a collinear libration point is solved in the present paper, within the limits of the three-dimensional, circular, restricted, three-body problem. Major attention is given to the investigation of stability in the orbital sense, since in the proper sense all orbits are unstable according to Lyapunov theory. It is shown that in order to resolve the question of stability, it is sufficient to consider the equations in their variational form. Analysis of the roots of the corresponding characteristic equations determines the orbital stability of planar and three-dimensional solutions, which later can be confirmed by calculation of the characteristic exponents appearing in the periodic solutions of the N. A. Artemiev method. Finally, the possibility of conditional stability in the linear approximation is proved.