中国大陆1992－1993年强震中期预测和检验

中国大陆１９９２－１９９３年强震中期预测和检验胡连英（江苏省地震局，南京，１０００１４）关键词：强震，中期预测，断裂带，地震活动，中国大陆。ＭｅｄｉｕｍＴｅｒｍＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄＩｎｓｐｅｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＳｔｒｏｎｇＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｉｎ１...     

潮汕地区的地质构造与强震活动

潮汕地区广泛分布中生代燕山运动时期侵入的花岗岩类的岩基、岩株，中生代中期的沉积岩、火山岩，第四纪中晚期的河流相、三角洲相、海相沉积物；断裂构造发育。于燕山运动时期活动强烈的北东走向断裂带，于新生代喜马拉雅运动时期强烈活动的北东东走向断裂带，以及既于中生代埋藏有较强烈活动，又于新生代时期有明显活动的北 北西－北西走向断裂带并存，构成本区的基本构造格架，而北东东和北 北西走向断裂的活动，控制了潮汕地区     

可可西里——东昆仑活动构造带强震活动研究

青海昆仑山口西 8.1级地震发生在具有新生性特征的可可西里—东昆仑活动断裂带上。该断裂带在 190 0年以来的 10 0多年中经历了一个强震活动过程。在该强震活动过程中 ,地震沿整个可可西里—东昆仑活动构造带分段破裂 ,强震的破裂长度和震级之间大致满足对数线性的统计关系 ,强震活动呈现指数型时间分布的加速特征。这种强震加速活动特征可以用含多个震源体的孕震系统的强震成组活动模型给予解释。     

利用稳态坡形类比法预测基岩岸坡的库岸再造

水库库岸再造是水利水电工程中经常遇到的工程地质问题之一.依据库岸地质结构和岩性组合, 划分出工程地质条件相近的库岸段, 与工程地质条件相类似的稳态坡形进行类比, 确定出再造后的稳态坡形的坡角大小, 从而进行库岸再造预测.利用稳态坡形类比法对三峡库区迁建新址的基岩库岸进行了再造预测, 定量预测出三峡水利枢纽工程建成蓄水后, 巫山县城新址基岩库岸最终再造带宽度在40166m之间, 预测结果可以用来指导新城的规划与建设.      

台湾与大陆西部地区强震活动的呼应关系

台湾与大陆西部地区同属地槽回返区 ,同处于板块的缝合线上 ,因而两地的地震活动都比较强烈且频繁。根据对有地震记录以来的近 1 0 0多年的资料统计分析 ,表明每当西部地区发生一个或多个 6.8级以上的强震后不久 ,台湾地区必有一个或多个相应震级的强震与之相呼应。这是印度洋板块向北推挤碰撞的作用力与反作用力 ,明显大于太平洋板块对欧亚板块的作用力与反作用力的结果。     

利用稳态坡形类比法预测基岩岸波的库岸再造

水库库岸再造是水利水电工程中经常遇到的工程地质问题之一。依据库 岸地质结构和岩性组合，划分出工程地质条件相近的库岸段，与工程地质条件相类似的稳态坡形进行类比，确定出再造后的稳态坡形的坡角大小，从而进行岸再造预测，利用稳态坡形类比法对三峡库区迁建新址的基岩库岩进行了再造预测，定量预测出三峡水利枢纽工程建成蓄水后，巫山县新址基岩库最终再造带宽度在40－166m之间，预测结果可以用来指导新城的规划与建设。     

径流的趋势分析和概率预测

对永定河流域的官厅水库和汾河流域的汾河水库1950年以来水库入流的趋势变化进行了研究,并对引起这一变化的气象因子和人类活动影响因素作了分析。研究结果表明,降水的多年波动在一段时期可能出现的趋势变化以及流域内农业、林业和城市用水的逐年增长是影响径流趋势变化的主要因素。根据历史资料和今后人类活动的可能情况,对未来水平年的径流变化进行了概率预测。     

对“径流的趋势分析和概率预测”一文的商榷

笔者对1995年3月发表的张世法等人“径流的趋势分析和概率预测”一文进行了认真的分析,发现有三处与该文结论不太一致。第一,华北地区河流的径流量并不一定是从1950年以来普遍存在随时间的增长而减少的趋势。第二,文中“自1980年以来,降水径流都处于偏枯阶段,……。     

对“对‘径流的趋势分析和概率预测’一文的商榷”的答复

承蒙崔振才、田文苓两同志对“径流趋势分析和概率预测”一文提出了讨论意见。     

Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: Strong Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf,Central Greece

The exhaustive review of a long number of historical documents, books, reports,scientific and press reports, instrumental recordings, previous catalogues andpersonal field observations, concluded with the production of a completely newtsunami catalogue for the Corinth Gulf, Central Greece, which is arranged in theformat adopted by the GITEC group for the new European Tsunami Catalogue.The catalogue is presented in three sections: the Quick-Look Table, the Quick-LookAccounts File and the References File. An Appendix explains why some particularsea disturbances were not included in the new catalogue although they were consideredas tsunami events by previous researchers. Past history clearly shows that most tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf are produced by strong (Ms 5.5) offshore and near shore earthquakes. However, seismic or aseismic sliding of coastal and submarine sediments is a significant factor in tsunamigenesis. Calculations based on the random model indicate that the probability for at least one tsunami occurrence of intensity TI 2 TI 3 and TI 4 within 50 years equals 0.851, 0.747 and 0.606, respectively. From the intensity–frequency relationship the mean return period of tsunami intensity TI 2, TI 3 and TI 4 equals to 16, 40 and 103 years. The tsunami geographicaldistribution, however, is non-random with a clear trend for the tsunamigenesis todecrease drastically from west to east within the Corinth Gulf. In fact, the probabilityfor a strong earthquake to cause a tsunami of TI 3 in the Corinth Gulf consideredas an entity is 0.35, while in the western part of the Gulf it goes up to 0.55. Therefore, the rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake focal parameters is of great importance in an algorithm of a real-time tsunami warning system in the Corinth Gulf.     

强震的孕育规律与孕震模式

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Power Laws Governing Historical Earthquakes in the Apennine Chain (Southern Italy)

Rank-ordering analysis is applied to the intertimes between seismic events recorded in the Apennine belt between 40–42° N and 14–16° E from the 15th century onwards. It shows a power law capable of governing the intertimes between 1529 and 368 months and another power law which approximates a random simulation, for the intertimes shorter than 368 months. Only the first power law allows the computation of the return period of major events. Earthquakes with the same energy that are aligned according to different power laws imply the presence of two different populations, indicating, in turn, that the physics of seismic phenomena in the region examined is not straightforward, that the stress is probably not unidirectional and that it acts on a non-isotropic medium. The most probable estimated intertime value for the next event is found to be equal to 60 ± 20 years.     

近500年中国及邻区强震空间格局及迁移模式初步分析

介绍了中国及邻区地震目录数据库的开发状况，从历史强震、近代强震及强震震源深度等几个方面，结合我国及邻区板块构造以及应力状态、壳幔结构的东西部差异对我国强震的空间格局进行了较为系统的分析．公元1900年以前我国华北地区的强震呈现出大梯形格局，而公元1900年之后我国强震则以西部的巨大扇形为主要特征，其中震源深度最深的区域分别位于大扇形的2个顶点处，即兴都库什-帕米尔以及缅印交界地区．就我国强震所特有的空间分布格局对我国强震的线性以及区域性迁移模式进行了总结和分析，其中线性迁移模式又可细分为前进跳跃式和钟摆式．对文中涉及的强震迁移机制分别利用断层破裂、弹簧-滑块、壳幔的结构性差异以及它们之间的相对运动等模型进行了初步的解释．     

鲁甸、景谷、康定地震预测的原理、方法及其意义

继中长期预测了芦山地震之后,笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如,鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级),地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°,东经103.3°),发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤;阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下,大陆地壳非均匀流动("热河")过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系;提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动"热河"地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测,与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动"热河"地震空区分布,进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势,强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻,短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。     

历史强震对渭河中游群发大型滑坡的诱发效应反演

以渭河中游地区为例,探索提出了开展历史地震对区域群发滑坡诱发效应反演研究的思路和方法。首先,基于汶川地震在渭河中游地区形成的高烈度异常和震害启示,通过区域活动构造和斜坡带断裂控滑分析,指出历史强震对区内群发大型滑坡的诱发效应不容忽视。然后,利用强震诱发滑坡的最远致灾震中距分析法,筛选出研究区周边300 km范围内需要重点考察其诱发效应的4次关键历史强震:公元前780年岐山MS7.0级地震、1654年天水南MS8.0级地震、1556年华县MS8.25级地震及1920年海原MS8.5级地震。随后,以岐山地震为例,具体阐述了基于Newmark位移模型的地震诱发滑坡位移及危险性反演评估方法;同时反演了其他3次历史强震诱发区内滑坡位移及危险性。最后,定量比较了反演历史强震诱发滑坡的位移与实际大型滑坡分布的空间匹配程度,结果显示天水南MS8.0级地震对渭河中游现存群发大型滑坡的诱发效应最强。     

核概率距离聚类方法及应用

研究聚类分析新方法一直是统计学和机器学习研究领域普遍关注的课题。针对概率距离聚类算法不能解决非线性可分聚类问题的缺欠,笔者应用核函数理论将该模型拓展成为一种能够解决非线性可分聚类问题的统计模型,称为核概率距离聚类分析模型。研制出一种应用新模型进行遥感图像非监督分类研究的实施策略和可行算法;在GDAL遥感图像数据输入输出函数库基础上,用VC++语言开发了遥感图像核概率距离聚类分析算法程序;用ERDAS软件提供的一幅7波段491像素×440像素大小的TM图像进行新方法分类应用实验研究。对比了新模型和其原版本的TM遥感图像非监督分类效果,结果表明新模型的非监督分类效果优于原有的分类模型。     

Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard of dam sites in Jordan

A Probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismic hazard of nineteen embankment dam sites in Jordan. A line source model developed by McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period from 1 A.D. to 1991 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includes all earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes 27.0°–35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0° E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activities are identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values are higher for dam sites closer to the Dead Sea Fault. This fault is believed to be responsible for most earthquake activities in Jordan and vicinity. The highest PGA value is found to be for Al-Karama dam site.     

Doubtful Events Reported in Current Italian Earthquake Catalogues: The Medieval Earthquakes of Subiaco (Central Italy)

Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181.