有蒸发-风反馈和海-气相互作用的CISK开尔文波——热带季节内振荡机制的进一步研究

将波动－CISK（积云对流加热反馈）、海－气相互作用和蒸发－风反馈都引入一个简单理论模式，研究了他们在驱动热带大气季节内振荡（ISO）中的作用。其结果表明：波动－CISK在减慢激发波的位相速度以接近观测到的热带ISO的移速过程中起主要作用；而蒸发－风反馈的主要作用是使激发波不稳定；海－气相互作用在减慢激发波的移速方面也有一定作用。因此，波动－CISK和蒸发－风反馈可认为是热带ISO的主要动力学机制。本研究还表明，由于蒸发－风反馈和海－气相互作用的影响，激发波是一种频散波，这种频散性可以更好地解释热带大气中ISO的活动特征。     

Wave-CISK与对称不稳定

本文主要研究了存在凝结加热时的对称不稳定,对流凝结加热采用了Wave-CISK方案.计算结果表明对流凝结加热通过CISK机制可以产生传播的对称不稳定扰动,且对扰动的传播方向、增长率及结构有影响.     

具有凝结加热反馈的对称不稳定的解析研究

本文采用非地转非静力条件下存在对流凝结加热反馈的Boussinesq方程组,借用Emanuel(1982)的Wave-CISK方案来考虑凝结反馈作用,并应用Green函数方法和Fourier方法,求得了任意加热廓线时对称不稳定的流函数的解析表达式及其频散关系。本文还对取某些特定的加热廓线时的情况进行了讨论。      

FURTHER STUDIES ON EVAPORATION-WIND FEEDBACK

The results from simple dynamic studies on the evaporation-wind feedback show that the effect cannot change the nature of tropical atmospheric waves (by retarding the speed), so that the evaporation-wind feedback alone cannot be an exciting mechanism of intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical atmosphere. This is different from that of the wave-CISK mechanism. With combined effect of the cumulus convection heating and evaporation-wind feedback, the CISK-Kelvin waves and CISK-Rossby waves will develop unstably, explaining the dynamic mechanism of tropical intraseasonal oscillation in a more complete and reasonable way than the convection heating alone. Therefore, the evaporation-wind feedback is also important to the intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical atmosphere.     

A Further Inquiry on the Mechanism of 30-60 Day Oscillation in the Tropical Atmosphere

In a simple semi-geostropic model on the equatorial β-plane, the theoretical analysis on the 30-60 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere is further discussed based on the wave-CISK mechanism. The convection heat-ing can excite the CISK-Kelvin wave and CISK-Rossby wave in the tropical atmosphere and they are all the low-frequency modes which drive the activities of 30-60 day oscillation in the tropics. The most favorable conditions to excite the CISK-Kelvin wave and CISK-Rossby wave are indicated: There is convection heating but not very strong in the atmosphere and there is weaker disturbance in the lower troposphere.The influences of vertical shearing of basic flow in the troposphere on the 30-60 day oscillation in the tropics are also discussed.     

Analysis of the structure and propagation of a simulated squall line on 14 June 2009

A squall line on 14 June 2009 in the provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui was well simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model. Based on high resolution spatial and temporal data, a detailed analysis of the structural features and propagation mechanisms of the squall line was conducted. The dynamic and thermodynamic structural characteristics and their causes were analyzed in detail. Unbalanced flows were found to play a key role in initiating gravity waves during the squall line's development. The spread and development of the gravity waves were sustained by convection in the wave-CISK process. The squall line's propagation and development mainly relied on the combined effect of gravity waves at the midlevel and cold outflow along the gust front. New cells were continuously forced by the cold pool outflow and were enhanced and lifted by the intense upward motion. At a particular phase, the new cells merged with the updraft of the gravity waves, leading to an intense updraft that strengthened the squall line.     

TBB资料揭示的热带大气低频振荡周期的年变化特征

１９８０－１９９２年ＧＭＳＴＢＢ格点资料，分析了１３年平均的ＴＢＢ功率谱随时间的变化，讨论了低频振荡周期的年变化特征及其可能的成因。结果表明，热带大气低频振荡周期有很明显的年变化。北半球热速睦区比赤道附近和南半球热带地区的周期变化幅度更大。总体上，冬季比夏，秋季低频振荡周期更长。     

A new model of tropical waves incorporating momentum mixing by cumulus convection

A comparison is made between the magnitudes of observed large-scale weather waves over the tropical Pacific and the magnitudes of the corresponding waves, predicted by wave-CISK theories, which are driven by the observed amount of latent heating (i.e., precipitation). The theoretical wave fields of meridional velocity, vorticity, and temperature rate are shown to exceed the observed quantities by an order of magnitude. An attempt is made to simulate the observed balance between the diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling within the context of the inviscid theories. For a broad class of heating profiles, geometries and basic states, it is found that this compensation without temperature change cannot be satisfactorily modelled, regardless of the vertical shape of the heating, when the vertical wavelength of the disturbance exceeds about 6 km.Scale analysis demonstrates that an important dynamical term has been neglected in the inviscid models, viz., the vertical transport of horizontal momentum by cumulus clouds. When this process is included in the wave model, velocities, relative vorticity, and the time rate of temperature change are all comparable to the observed values. The general behavior of a system where both forcing and cumulus “friction” are proportional to each other has not been previously examined. We find the behavior of such a system to have several novel features. For example, we find that for a wide range of precipitation amplitudes (from 1/4 to 4 times the precipitation amplitudes of waves in the western Pacific) we get essentially constant amplitudes for wind. The implications of this and other features for various aspects of tropical wave modelling are discussed.     

基本气流和边界层顶高度对低纬大气数值模拟的影响

本文研究了一个包含波动CISK(Convective Instability of the Second Kind)机制的扰动方程数值模式中,基本气流对低频振荡数值模拟的影响。结果显示,当基本气流为纬向均匀风场U时,振荡周期随U的增加而减小:当U取2 m s-1时,周期从50～60 d减小到30 d;当U减小到-1 m s-1时,振荡周期增加为70～80 d。这是由于低频振荡是从西向东传播,西风基本气流能加快扰动东传,反之东风基本气流会抑制扰动东传,使振荡周期增加。同时,模式中的边界层顶出现误差时,模拟结果会有敏感的响应。若边界层顶取值比标准值高,对流加热反馈作用过大,出现扰动增长过快的现象,传播到80°～90°E附近时,扰动不再继续传播,而是无限增长;而边界层顶取值比标准值低时,对流加热反馈过小,扰动增长小且衰减加快,扰动传播不远便耗散到零,扰动循环周期表现为热源的周期。     

与水平风切变强度不均匀相联系的CISK惯性重力波

在虚拟高度坐标系中, 用一个简单的线性模式初步研究了水平风切变强度不均匀分布对长江流域梅雨锋附近贯穿整个对流层的深厚惯性重力波发生发展的影响。结果表明:水平风切变强度不均匀对CISK惯性重力波不稳定有重要作用。在一般干的层结大气中, 实际可能出现再强的水平风切变的影响也难以使惯性重力波变得不稳定; 只有在积云对流潜热参与, 原为弱稳定条件下, 水平风切变强度不均匀能促使低空急流北侧不稳定扰动的发生发展。而水平风切变强度不均匀对不稳定贡献最大的区域是梅雨锋南侧的急流轴附近。     

On the maintenance and initiation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and in the GLA and UKMO AMIP simulations

 In this study, satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research are used as verification data in a study of intraseasonal variability in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) atmospheric general circulation models. These models simulated the most realistic intraseasonal oscillations (IO) of the 15 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project models previously analyzed. During the active phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, convection is observed to migrate from the Indian Ocean to the western/central Pacific Ocean, and into the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The simulated convection, particularly in the GLA model, is most realistic over the western/central Pacific Ocean and the SPCZ. In the reanalysis, the baroclinic structure of the IO is evident in the eddy-stream function, and eastward migration of the anticyclone/cyclone pairs occurs in conjunction with the eastward development of convection. Both the GLA and UKMO models exhibit a baroclinic structure on intraseasonal time scales. The GLA model is more realistic than the UKMO model at simulating the eastward migration of the anticyclone/cyclone pairs when the convection is active over the western/central Pacific. In the UKMO model, the main heating is located off the equator, which contributes to the irregular structures seen in this model on intraseasonal time scales. The maintenance and initiation of the intraseasonal oscillation has also been investigated. Analysis of the latent heat flux indicates that evaporative wind feedback is not the dominant mechanism for promoting the eastward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation since evaporation to the west of the convection dominants. The data suggest a wave-CISK (conditional instability of the secondkind) type mechanism, although the contribution by frictional convergence is not apparent. In the GLA model, enhanced evaporation tends to develop in-place over the west Pacific warm pool, while in the UKMO simulation westward propagation of enhanced evaporation is evident. It is suggested that lack of an interactive ocean may be associated with the models systematic failure to simulate the eastward transition of convection from the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific Ocean. This hypothesis is based upon the examination of observed sea surface temperature (SST) and its relationship to the active phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, which indicates that the IO may evolve as a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. The eastward propagation of convection appears to be related to the gradient of SST, with above normal SST to the east of the convection maintaining the eastward evolution, and decreasing SST near the western portion of the convective envelope being associated with the cessation of convection. Received: 13 September 1996/Accepted: 14 April 1997     

哈尔滨市汛期特征与年变化

利用哈尔滨市１９５１ ～１９９８ 年候降水量资料,用候降水量突变划分汛期,并对哈尔滨市汛期特征进行分析。哈尔滨市汛期可划分为：提前型、落后型;偏长型,偏短型;连续型、分段型。平均入汛期为６ 月２１ ～２６ 日,最早入汛期为５ 月２１ ～２５ 日,最晚入汛期为７ 月２１ ～２６ 日;平均出汛期为８ 月２６～３１ 日,最早出汛期为７ 月６ ～１０ 日,最晚出汛期为１０ 月１１ ～１５ 日。平均汛期长度为６０ｄ ,最长汛期为１００ｄ ,最短汛期为２０ｄ 。     

基于支持向量机的遥感大雾判识

提出了一种基于支持向量机的卫星遥感数据大雾判识方法:首先通过对风云1D卫星大雾区域的各通道辐射值出现频次进行概率统计,利用其阈值来粗判识大雾;然后在粗判识的基础上通过支持向量机的方法进行大雾细判识;最后利用腐蚀和膨胀的图像处理技术对判识后的图像进行优化处理。在对我国2006年9-12月的65条监测到大雾的风云1D轨道的探测数据进行分析之后,发现大雾判识结果与专家标记吻合。检验结果表明,利用1、2、4、6、7、10通道组合进行粗判识的结果最好,5交叉正确率为89.9849%,TS评分为74.04%。利用上述方法对个例的分析检验表明,基于支持向量机的遥感大雾判识方法是切实可行的。     

Lamb波相控阵结构健康监测成像技术

在分析相控阵波束指向的控制过程与介绍相控阵结构健康监测原理的基础上,利用相控阵原理控制Lamb波的时间延迟使其在结构损伤处聚焦.通过比较结构健康状态与损伤状态的传感器响应信号,获取Lamb波损伤散射信号;采用相控阵技术控制损伤散射信号时间延迟得到不同方向的信号,进而实现对结构的多方位扫描,根据扫描信号特点,将各方向的监测结果信号采用灰度图像显示.该方法在铝板结构中实现损伤的定位成像,其不仅能够精确定位损伤位置,而且能够直观清晰显示结构损伤.     

红火蚁发生的气象等级指标

根据广州市番禺区2008—2012年红火蚁发生实测资料和同期气象资料,采用统计学、生物学等方法,建立了广州市番禺区红火蚁发生的气象等级指标。结果表明,红火蚁大发生的气象条件为温度22~27℃,湿度70%~85%或降雨量在1~100 mm,易发生的气象条件为温度22~27℃,较易发生的气象条件为温度20~22℃或27~30℃,不易发生的气象条件为低于20℃或高于30℃。2008—2012年红火蚁发生发展气象等级回代准确率达80%,2013年的试报红火蚁的大发生期4月上旬—5月中旬准确率达到92%。     

台风Chanchu(0601)变性过程中的强度变化及环境场分析

利用非静力中尺度WRF模式模拟的台风Chanchu(0601)的输出资料,探讨了Chanchu减弱变性过程的强度及结构变化。分析结果表明:在台风Chanchu北移过程中,高层的暖心被破坏,强度快速减弱,眼壁对流发展高度降低,眼壁对流由对称结构演变为非对称,内核对流减弱。此减弱变性过程与惯性稳定度减小、垂直风切变增强、低层锋生等环境要素有关。惯性稳定度与台风强度变化一致,随着惯性稳定度降低,最大切向风减弱并不断外扩,Rossby变形半径增大从而潜热释放不集中难以维持台风强度,台风减弱;同时,内核区的高层暖心更易径向频散,从而高层暖心难以维持;环境的垂直风切变增强使台风的斜压性增强,台风垂直结构的倾斜度增大,对流发展高度降低;低层冷空气侵入台风中心趋于填塞,也利于台风强度减弱;台风登陆以后冷暖空气对比导致的锋生使得不稳定能量释放从而重新加强了Chanchu环流内的中低层对流活动,但较台风最强时刻而言对流强度减弱。总体减少的对流和降低的对流高度,导致潜热能释放减小,其向心输送也减少,不足以维持强暖心结构,最终使得台风减弱并变性。      

四川省康定市泥石流灾害与降水预报阈值确定

通过对康定市历史泥石流灾害资料与历史气象降雨资料进行统计分析,揭示了康定市泥石流灾害与降雨的关系特征,并在此基础上,研制了康定市1h、3h降雨量诱发泥石流预警指标。结果表明：康定市境内各地均有发生泥石流灾害的可能性,东部地区是泥石流的高易发区。康定市境内泥石流灾害发生与当日降雨量、短时强降雨、前期有效降雨量关系密切。降雨量大且降雨强度强的月份（6~8月）易发生泥石流灾害。短时强降水的强度越大,发生灾害的风险越大,强降水出现频率最高的时段（19:00~02:00）也是泥石流高发时段。当降水强度<10mm/h和20mm/3h时,有出现泥石流的可能性,泥石流灾害气象风险等级为4~5级;当降水强度达到10~20mm/h、21~35mm/3h时,发生泥石流的可能性较大,风险等级为3级;当降水强度达到21~35mm/h、36~50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性大,风险等级为2级;当降水强度>35mm/h、50mm/3h时,泥石流发生的可能性极大,风险等级为1级。     

气象灾害指标在湖南春玉米种植区划中的应用

根据湖南省97个气象站1961—2004年气温、日照、降水等气象资料, 结合玉米生态习性和田间试验分析结果, 计算了玉米生长期内相关的灾害指标。得出玉米吐丝-成熟期干旱、高温热害及播种-出苗期的连阴雨3个气象灾害指标对其生长的影响最大, 在分析该3个灾害指标的地域分布特征基础上, 利用该3个指标出现概率, 引进“无级变速”原理, 进行春玉米种植区划。区划结果表明:湖南大部分地方适宜种植春玉米, 从区划结果与实际产量对比分析比较, 湖南玉米的高产区均在最适宜区和适宜区内; 低产区大多都在较适宜区和次适宜区, 只是湘东南山地低产区在最适宜区范围内, 与实际情况不吻合。原因可能是这一区域玉米生长期内光、温资源不足, 加之土壤肥力较差的缘故。     

Theoretical determination of the surface energy balance and thermal regimes of bare soils

An analytical theory that determines the thermal regimes in the soil and the thermal and moisture regimes in the atmosphere for bare surfaces is derived. Both soil and atmospheric thermal properties are assumed to be power functions of depth and height, respectively. Evaporation is determined using a surface resistance to vapour flow. Fourier superposition is used to represent nonsinusoidal variations in time due to effects such as variable cloud cover. The theory is in acceptable agreement with micrometeorological measurements made at two bare soil sites of contrasting surface bulk density. It is concluded that the surface resistance model for evaporation is applicable to bare soils which remain wet at depth, particularly if their surface is loosened. The theory is used to predict the diurnal thermal regimes of saturated and dry sand, loam, and peat soils.