Parameters of the Geomagnetic Activity,Thermosphere, and Ionosphere for the Ultimately Intense Magnetic Storm

Equations of regression are derived for the intense magnetic storms of 1957?2016. They reflect the nonlinear relation between Dst_min and the effective index of geomagnetic activity Ap(τ) with a timeweighted factor τ. Based on this and on known estimations of the upper limit of the magnetic storm intensity (Dst_min =–2500 nT), the maximal possible value Ap(τ)_max ~ 1000 nT is obtained. This makes it possible to obtain initial estimates of the upper limit of variations in some parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere that are due to geomagnetic activity. It is found, in particular, that the upper limit of an increase in the thermospheric density is seven to eight times larger than for the storm in March 1989, which was the most intense for the entire space era. The maximum possible amplitude of the negative phase of the ionospheric storm in the number density of the F₂-layer maximum at midlatitudes is nearly six times higher than for the March 1989 storm. The upper limit of the F₂-layer rise in this phase of the ionospheric storm is also considerable. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the F₂-layer maximum in daytime hours at midlatitudes for these limiting conditions is not pronounced and even may be unresolved in the experiment, i.e., above the F₁-layer maximum, the electron number density may smoothly decrease with height up to the upper boundary of the plasmasphere.     

Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.     

On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H _s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H _s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H _s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H _s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.     

Disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 region critical frequency before the earthquake of September 11, 2008 off the coast of Hokkaido,Japan, and during a moderate magnetic storm based on data from ground-based vertical ionosphere sounding stations

Based on data from ground-based vertical sounding stations, the behaviors of the ionosphere F region before a strong M 6.8 earthquake off the coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and during the moderate magnetic storm before this earthquake are compared. It was found that the critical frequency of the ionosphere F region (foF2) above the Wakkanai ground-based ionosphere vertical sounding station, which was located in the preparation zone of this earthquake, suffered a long-term disturbance of slightly more than an hour nearly half a day before the earthquake. The magnitude of earthquake-induced disturbance is comparable to that caused by a magnetic storm.     

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.     

Comparison of Ionospheric Parameters during Similar Geomagnetic Storms

The degree of closeness of ionospheric parameters during one magnetic storm and of the same parameters during another, similar, storm is estimated. Overall, four storms—two pairs of storms close in structure and appearance according to recording of the magnetic field Х-component—were analyzed. The examination was based on data from Sodankyla observatory (Finland). The f-graphs of the ionospheric vertical sounding, magnetometer data, and riometer data on absorption were used. The main results are as follows. The values of the critical frequencies foF2, foF1, and foE for different but similar magnetic storms differ insignificantly. In the daytime, the difference is on average 6% (from 0 to 11.1%) for all ionospheric layers. In the nighttime conditions, the difference for foF2 is 4%. The nighttime values of foEs differ on average by 20%. These estimates potentially make it possible to forecast ionospheric parameters for a particular storm.     

Peculiarities of the outer radiation belt dynamics during the strong magnetic storm of May 15, 2005

The dynamics of energetic electrons (E _e =0.17–8 MeV) and protons (E _p =1 MeV) of the outer radiation belt during the magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, at high (GOES-10 and LANL-84 geosynchronous satellites) and low (Meteor-3M polar satellite) altitudes is analyzed. The data have been compared to the density, plasma velocity, solar wind, and magnetic field measurements on the ACE satellite and geomagnetic disturbances. During the magnetic storm main phase, the nighttime boundary of the region of trapped radiation and the center of westward electrojet shifted to L ～ 3. Enhancements of only low-energy electrons were observed on May 15, 2005. The belt of relativistic electrons with a maximum at L ～ 4 was formed during the substorm, the amplitude of which reached its maximum at ～0630 UT on May 16. The results are in good agreement with the regularity relating the position of a maximum of the new relativistic electron belt, boundaries of the trapped radiation region, and extreme low-latitude position of westward electrojet center to the Dst variation amplitude.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Daytime quasiperiodic geomagnetic pulsations during the recovery phase of the strong magnetic storm of May 15, 2005

Intense quasimonchromatic geomagnetic pulsations with a period of ～15 min, observed on the Earth’s surface in the near-noon sector at the beginning of the recovery phase of a very strong (Dst _min = ?260 nT) magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, are analyzed. The variations were registered at auroral latitudes only in the X field component, and wave activity shifted into the postnoon sector of the polar cap an hour later; in this case pulsations were observed in the X and Y field components. Within the magnetosphere the source of magnetic pulsations could be the surface waves on the magnetopause caused by the pulse of the solar wind magnetic pressure. Geomagnetic pulsations in the polar cap, observed in phase at different latitudes, could apparently reflect quasiperiodic variations in the NBZ system of field-aligned currents. Such variations can originate due to the series of pulsed reconnections in the postnoon outer cusp at large (～20 nT) positive B _z values and large (about ?40 nT) negative values of IMF B _x .     

An Empirical Model for the Ionospheric Global Electron Content Storm-Time Response

By analyzing the variations of global electron content (GEC) during geomagnetic storm events, the ratio “GEC/GECQT” is found to be closely correlated with geomagnetic Kp index and time weighted Dst index, where GECQT is the quiet time reference value. Moreover, the GEC/GECQT will decrease with the increase of the solar flux F10.7 index. Furthermore, we construct a linear model for storm-time response of GEC. Eighty-two storm events during 1999–2011 were utilized to calculate the model coefficients, and the performance of the model was tested using data of 8 storm events in 2012 by comparing the outputs of the model with the observed GEC values. Results suggest that the model can capture the characteristics of the GEC variation in response to magnetic storms. The component describing the solar activity influence shows a counteracting effect with the geomagnetic activity component; and the influence of Kp index causes an increase of GEC, while the time weighted Dst index causes a decrease of GEC.     

Spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> in the Midlatitude Ionosphere According to DPS-4 Ionosonde Data

The results of studying spread F obtained from the DPS-4 ionosonde data at the observatory of the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (Moscow) are presented. The methodical questions that arise during the study of a spread F phenomenon in the ionosphere are considered; the current results of terrestrial observations are compared with previously published data and the results of sounding onboard an Earth-satellite vehicle. The automated algorithm for estimation of the intensity of frequency spread F, which was developed by the authors and was successfully verified via comparison of the data of the digisonde DPS-4 and the results of manual processing, is described. The algorithm makes it possible to quantify the intensity of spread F in megahertz (the dFs parameter) and in the number of points (0, 1, 2, 3). The strongest spread (3 points) is shown to be most likely around midnight, while the weakest spread (0 points) is highly likely to occur during the daytime. The diurnal distribution of a 1–2 point spread F in the winter indicates the presence of additional maxima at 0300–0600 UT and 1400–1700 UT, which may appear due to the terminator. Despite the large volume of processed data, we can not definitively state that the appearance of spread F depends on the magnetic activity indices Kp, Dst, and AL, although the values of the dFs frequency spread interval strongly increased both at day and night during the magnetic storm of March 17–22, 2015, especially in the phase of storm recovery on March 20–22.     

Daytime geomagnetic disturbances at high latitudes during a strong magnetic storm of June 21–23, 2015: The storm initial phase

The high-latitude geomagnetic effects of an unusually long initial phase of the largest magnetic storm (SymH ~–220 nT) in cycle 24 of the solar activity are considered. Three interplanetary shocks characterized by considerable solar wind density jumps (up to 50–60 cm^–3) at a low solar wind velocity (350–400 km/s) approached the Earth’s magnetosphere during the storm initial phase. The first two dynamic impacts did not result in the development of a magnetic storm, since the IMF Bz remained positive for a long time after these shocks, but they caused daytime polar substorms (magnetic bays) near the boundary between the closed and open magnetosphere. The magnetic field vector diagrams at high latitudes and the behaviour of high-latitude long-period geomagnetic pulsations (ipcl and vlp) made it possible to specify the dynamics of this boundary position. The spatiotemporal features of daytime polar substorms (the dayside polar electrojet, PE) caused by sudden changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure are discussed in detail, and the singularities of ionospheric convection in the polar cap are considered. It has been shown that the main phase of this two-stage storm started rapidly developing only when the third most intense shock approached the Earth against a background of large negative IMF Bz values (to–39 nT). It was concluded that the dynamics of convective vortices and the related restructing of the field-aligned currents can result in spatiotemporal fluctuations in the closing ionospheric currents that are registered on the Earth’s surface as bay-like magnetic disturbances.     

Does the duration of the magnetic storm recovery phase depend on the development rate in its main phase? 2. A new method

In contrast to our previous work (Yermolaev et al., 2015), in which we used the magnetic storm recovery phase duration, the exponential time of the recovery phase of magnetic storms generated by three interplanetary driver types (CIR, Sheath, and ICME) is introduced in the present work. The dependence of these times on the storm development rate |Dst_min|/ΔT (where ΔT is the storm main phase duration) is studied. A similar physical result has been achieved despite the different data analysis method used: the times of the storm recovery and development rates correlate for storms induced by CIR and Sheath compression regions, and any relation between these parameters is absent for storms induced by ICME.     

Influence of aquatic plants on the hydrogen isotope composition of sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes in the Lake Qinghai region,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The hydrogen isotopic composition(δD) of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes(C27, C29, and C31) from lacustrine sediments has been widely applied to reconstruct terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological changes. However, few studies have addressed whether the aquatic-derived n-alkanes can affect the δD values of lake sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes, which are usually regarded as a recorder of the terrestrial hydrological signals. Here we systematically investigated δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from modern aquatic plants, both near-shore and off-shore surface sediments, surrounding terrestrial plant litters, as well as river water and lake water in Lake Qinghai and its satellite lakes on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our data showed that(i) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants varied from-184‰ to-132‰ for n-C27, from-183‰ to-138‰ for n-C29, and from-189‰ to-130‰ for n-C31, respectively, with no significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues;(ii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants were generally more positive than those from surrounding terrestrial plants, possibly because that they recorded the D-enrichment of lake water in this semi-arid region;(iii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from surface sediments showed significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues, due to the larger aquatic input of n-C27 to the sedimentary lipid pool than that of n-C31, and(iv) n-C27 δD values of near-shore aquatic plants and near-shore sediments are more negative than those from off-shore as a result of lower δD values of near-shore lake water. Our findings indicate that in this region(i) the offset between sedimentary n-C27 and n-C31 δD values(ΔδDC27-C31) could potentially be used to evaluate if sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes are derived from a single source;(ii) while δD values of n-C27 may be influenced by lake water hydrological changes, sedimentary n-C31 is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants and thus its δD can serve as a relatively reliable indicator for terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions.     

G: Fracture energy,friction and dissipation in earthquakes

Recent estimates of fracture energy G ^′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ^′ ∝ u ^a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G _f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ^′ and G _f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s²). The resulting fracture energy G _f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G _f and G ^′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G _f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ^′ appears to increase further and surpasses G _f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.     

Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather: Pi3 Pulsations and Extreme Values of Time Derivatives of the Geomagnetic Field’s Horizontal Components

The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 10² to 10³ s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) B_X component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) B_Y component. The extreme |dB_X/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dB_Y/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dB_X/dt| and |dB_Y/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dB_Y/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.     

Effects of geomagnetic disturbances in daytime variations of the atmospheric electric field in polar regions

We have studied the influence of daytime polar substorms (geomagnetic bays under the IMF Bz > 0) on variations of the vertical gradient of the atmospheric electric field potential (Ez) observed at the Polish Hornsund Station (Svalbard, Norway). Only the observations of Ez under “fair weather” conditions were used, i.e. in the absence of strong wind, precipitations, low cloud cover, etc. We studied more than 20 events of daytime polar substorms registered by the Scandinavian chain of IMAGE magnetometers in 2010–2014 during the “fair weather” periods at the Hornsund Station. Analysis of the observations showed that Ez significantly deviates from the its background variations during daytime, as a rule, when the Hornsund Station is in the region of projection of the daytime auroral oval, the position of which was determined from OVATION data. It was shown that the development of a daytime polar substorm leads to fluctuating enhance of Ez values. It was found that Ez surges are accompanied by intensification of field-aligned electric currents outflowing from the ionosphere, which were calculated from the data of low-orbit communication satellites of the AMPERE project.