Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

Time changes of the potential Love tidal parameters k2 and k3

The planet Earth is continuously changing in time, so there are phenomena that require continuous observation, including tidal parameters. The main goal of this study is to analyze time changes of the Love potential tidal parameters. This paper concerns an analysis of the estimated Love numbers k for the second and the third degree tides (numbers k₂ and k₃), associated with the tide variations of the satellite motion. The measured data used for determining the parameters k₂, k₃ were conducted within the period of January 1, 2014 until July 1, 2016 by LAGEOS-1 and LAGEOS-2 satellites. The results were compared with our previous determination of these parameters from LAGEOS data during the period from January 1, 2005 until July 1, 2007 to examine whether any systematic differences and time evolution occur. The adjusted values for k₂ equalling 0.29842 ± 0.00008 and k₃ equalling 0.0901 ± 0.0034 are discussed and compared with the nominal values given in International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service standards. The differences between the k₂ and k₃ values obtained for the time interval 2005.0–2007.5 and the results for 2014.0–2016.5 interval are –0.00288 for k₂ and 0.0042 for k₃. The obtained differences in the k₂ and k₃ values may indicate their evolution in time.     

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.     

Evaluating BOD and the coefficient of oxidation rate: Monitoring,direct and inverse problems,formulas, calculations and tables

It is proposed to evaluate two theoretical characteristics, i.e., BOD (biochemical oxygen demand) and k ₀ (the coefficient of oxidation rate by new formulas based on two experimental variables: BOD _T and BOD_2T (biochemical oxygen consumption in two periods T and 2T day, respectively). The formulation and an analytical solution are given for a direct problem describing the process of biochemical oxidation of organic matter (OM) in a water volume in the absence of aeration (e.g., in a water body under ice or in a sealed flask used to measure biochemical oxygen consumption). The problem is solved based on the closed (modified) Streeter–Phelps system. Unlike the classical Streeter–Phelps system, the closed system excludes physically incorrect solutions (e.g., negative concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO)) [4]. The solution of the direct problem is used to formulate an inverse problem, whose solution is given in the form of formulas for evaluating BOD and k ₀. These formulas are used to compile tables to illustrate the essence of the proposed method.     

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Trends in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis>-Layer Critical Frequency

Long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency foE at three stations in the European region (Juliusruh, Slough, and Rome) are analyzed by the method described in detail in the previous paper by the authors. It is found that two former stations demonstrate a well-pronounced change in foE (a trend) during the two previous decades. At the same time, the same features of the behavior of the aforementioned trend k(foE) are obtained for both stations. The trend is positive and negative in the morning and evening hours, respectively. It is minimal near the local noon. That explains the small value of k(foE) obtained in the previous paper for 1200 LT. A well-pronounced seasonal behavior of k(foE) is detected: the trend is minimal and maximal in the summer period and at the end of fall—beginning of winter, respectively. The trend maximal amplitude in the morning hours reaches +0.04 MHz per year, whereas the minimal amplitude in evening hours is–0.06 MHz per year. No systematic changes in foE exceeding 0.01 MHz in magnitude per year are found for Rome station.     

Minimum relative entropy theory for streamflow forecasting with frequency as a random variable

This paper develops a minimum relative entropy theory with frequency as a random variable, called MREF henceforth, for streamflow forecasting. The MREF theory consists of three main components: (1) determination of spectral density (2) determination of parameters by cepstrum analysis, and (3) extension of autocorrelation function. MREF is robust at determining the main periodicity, and provides higher resolution spectral density. The theory is evaluated using monthly streamflow observed at 20 stations in the Mississippi River basin, where forecasted monthly streamflows show the coefficient of determination (r ²) of 0.876, which is slightly higher in the Upper Mississippi (r ² = 0.932) than in the Lower Mississippi (r ² = 0.806). Comparison of different priors shows that the prior with the background spectral density with a peak at 1/12 frequency provides satisfactory accuracy, and can be used to forecast monthly streamflow with limited information. Four different entropy theories are compared, and it is found that the minimum relative entropy theory has an advantage over maximum entropy (ME) for both spectral estimation and streamflow forecasting, if additional information as a prior is given. Besides, MREF is found to be more convenient to estimate parameters with cepstrum analysis than minimum relative entropy with spectral power as random variable (MRES), and less information is needed to assume the prior. In general, the reliability of monthly streamflow forecasting from the highest to the lowest is for MREF, MRES, configuration entropy (CE), Burg entropy (BE), and then autoregressive method (AR), respectively.     

Comparison of local and global approximators in multivariate chaotic forecasting of daily streamflow

ABSTRACT

Although it is conceptually assumed that global models are relatively ineffective in modelling the highly unstable structure of chaotic hydrologic dynamics, there is not a detailed study of comparing the performances of local and global models in a hydrological context, especially with new emerging machine learning models. In this study, the performance of a local model (k-nearest neighbour, k-nn) and, as global models, several recent machine learning models – artificial neural network (ANN), least square-support vector regression (LS-SVR), random forest (RF), M5 model tree (M5), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) – was analysed in multivariate chaotic forecasting of streamflow. The models were developed for Australia’s largest river, the River Murray. The results indicate that the k-nn model was more successful than the global models in capturing the streamflow dynamics. Furthermore, coupled with the multivariate phase-space, it was shown that the global models can be successfully used for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates for streamflow.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Effect of solar dynamics parameters on the formation of substorm activity

An algorithm for retrieving the AL index dynamics from the parameters of solar-wind plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been developed. Along with other geoeffective parameters of the solar wind, an integral parameter in the form of the cumulative sum Σ[N*V ²] is used to determine the process of substorm formation. The algorithm is incorporated into a framework developed to retrieve the AL index of an Elman-type artificial neural network (ANN) containing an additional layer of neurons that provides an “internal memory” of the prehistory of the dynamical process to be retrieved. The ANN is trained on data of 70 eight-hour-long time intervals, including the periods of isolated magnetospheric substorms. The efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by numerical neural-network experiments on retrieving the dynamics of the AL index from the of solar wind and IMF parameters during substorms.     

A stepwise algorithm to detect significant time lags in ecological time series in terms of autocorrelation functions and ARMA model optimisation of pest population seasonal outbreaks

A central issue in population ecology is to determine the structure of negative feedback-density depend process which regulates population dynamics and seasonal fluctuations. In this work the incidence of population density dependences and seasonality was examined in fruit orchards of three closely related pest species (Adoxophyes orana, Anarsia lineatella and (Grapholita) Grapholitha molesta). Analysis included 13 moth population time series during 2003–2011. Additionally, considering that time lags and seasonality are fundamental characteristics of ecological organisation and pest management, the work aimed to introduce a step wise algorithm to detect significant population feedbacks, moth seasonality and population synchronisation of nearby locations. In the proposed procedure, each population-time series was first analysed on the basis of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation. Moreover, assuming that each of the ecological variable, observed at successive time points, consist of a stochastic process, autoregressive moving average ARMA(p,q) models and seasonal autoregressive moving average models SARMA(p,q)x(P,Q) _S were fitted on data. The Akaike information criteria was further used by the stepwise algorithm for parameter optimization and model improvement. Model construction is accompanied by a presentation of the fitting results and a discussion of the heuristic benchmarks used to assess the forecasting performance of the models. Life cycles of populations belonging to same species appeared to synchronise by terms of their autocorrelation functions. Delayed density dependence and order was in most cases of lag:1 and 2, while lag >3 was not found more frequently as expected by chance. In A. orana and A. lineatella moth species lag = 1 delayed density dependence was significantly more frequent and in particular in nearby locations. However, the structure of the fitted models varied with respect to species and observation region. In some cases, seasonal models were considered to be more accurate in simulating moth population dynamics. Finally, to provide means in forecasting moth emergence and abundance, utile in pest management, the models were trained using 2003–2009 data sets and their forecasting performance were validated for each case using data sets of 2010–2011. In most cases, the constructed stochastic linear autoregressive models simulated the population outbreaks very well. Describing and forecasting stochastic population fluctuations is a basic tenet of theoretical and applied ecology, while detecting the relative roles of exogenous and endogenous mechanisms can partly describe the phenomenological behavior of pest population time series data and improve pest management.     

Features of Radiation and Propagation of Seismic Waves in the Northern Caucasus: Manifestations in Regional Coda

Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (M_W > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.     

Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather: Pi3 Pulsations and Extreme Values of Time Derivatives of the Geomagnetic Field’s Horizontal Components

The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 10² to 10³ s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) B_X component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) B_Y component. The extreme |dB_X/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dB_Y/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dB_X/dt| and |dB_Y/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dB_Y/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.     

Influence of aquatic plants on the hydrogen isotope composition of sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes in the Lake Qinghai region,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The hydrogen isotopic composition(δD) of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes(C27, C29, and C31) from lacustrine sediments has been widely applied to reconstruct terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological changes. However, few studies have addressed whether the aquatic-derived n-alkanes can affect the δD values of lake sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes, which are usually regarded as a recorder of the terrestrial hydrological signals. Here we systematically investigated δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from modern aquatic plants, both near-shore and off-shore surface sediments, surrounding terrestrial plant litters, as well as river water and lake water in Lake Qinghai and its satellite lakes on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our data showed that(i) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants varied from-184‰ to-132‰ for n-C27, from-183‰ to-138‰ for n-C29, and from-189‰ to-130‰ for n-C31, respectively, with no significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues;(ii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants were generally more positive than those from surrounding terrestrial plants, possibly because that they recorded the D-enrichment of lake water in this semi-arid region;(iii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from surface sediments showed significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues, due to the larger aquatic input of n-C27 to the sedimentary lipid pool than that of n-C31, and(iv) n-C27 δD values of near-shore aquatic plants and near-shore sediments are more negative than those from off-shore as a result of lower δD values of near-shore lake water. Our findings indicate that in this region(i) the offset between sedimentary n-C27 and n-C31 δD values(ΔδDC27-C31) could potentially be used to evaluate if sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes are derived from a single source;(ii) while δD values of n-C27 may be influenced by lake water hydrological changes, sedimentary n-C31 is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants and thus its δD can serve as a relatively reliable indicator for terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions.     

Paleomagnetic results from Late Carboniferous to Early Permian rocks in the northern Qiangtang terrane,Tibet, China,and their tectonic implications

Results of a systematic paleomagnetic study are reported based on Late Carboniferous to Early Permian sedimentary rocks on the north slope of the Tanggula Mountains,in the northern Qiangtang terrane(NQT),Tibet,China.Data revealed that magnetic minerals in limestone samples from the Zarigen Formation(CP^z)are primarily composed of magnetite,while those in sandstone samples from the Nuoribagaribao Formation(Pnr)are dominated by hematite alone,or hematite and magnetite in combination.Progressive thermal,or alternating field,demagnetization allowed us to isolate a stable high temperature component(HTC)in 127 specimens from 16 sites which successfully passed the conglomerate test,consistent with primary remnance.The tilt-corrected mean direction for Late Carboniferous to Early Permian rocks in the northern Qiangtang terrane is D_s=30.2°,I_s=-40.9°,k_s=269.0,a_(95)=2.3°,N=16,which yields a corresponding paleomagnetic pole at 25.7°N,241.5°E(dp/dm=2.8°/1.7°),and a paleolatitude of 23.4°S.Our results,together with previously reported paleomagnetic data,indicate that:(1)the NQT in Tibet,China,was located at a low latitude in the southern hemisphere,and may have belonged to the northern margin of Gondwana during the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian;(2)the Paleo-Tethys Ocean was large during the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian,and(3)the NQT subsequently moved rapidly northwards,perhaps related to the fact that the Paleo-Tethys Ocean was rapidly contracting from the Late Permian to Late Triassic while the Bangong Lake-Nujiang Ocean,the northern branch of the Neo-Tethys Ocean,expanded rapidly during this time.     

Peculiarities of Rayleigh wave displacement in a transversely isotropic half space

We consider a transversely isotropic medium with vertical axis of symmetry (VTI). Rayleigh wave displacement components in a homogeneous VTI medium contain exp(±kr_jz), where z is the vertical coordinate, k is the wave number, and j?=?1, 2; r_j may be considered as depth-decay factor. In a VTI medium, r_j can be a real or imaginary as in an isotropic medium, or it can be a complex depending on the elastic parameters of the VTI medium; if complex, r₁ and r₂ are complex conjugates. In a homogeneous VTI half space, Rayleigh wave displacement is significantly modified with a phase shift when r_j changes from real to complex with variation of VTI parameters; at the transition, the displacement becomes zero when r₁?=?r₂. In a liquid layer over a VTI half space, Rayleigh waves are dispersive. Here, also Rayleigh wave displacement significantly modified with a phase shift when r_j changes from real to complex with a decrease of period. At very low period, phase velocity of Rayleigh waves becomes less than P-wave velocity in the liquid layer giving rise to Scholte waves (interface waves). The amplitudes of Scholte waves with a VTI half space are found to be significantly larger than those with an isotropic half space.     

G: Fracture energy,friction and dissipation in earthquakes

Recent estimates of fracture energy G ^′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ^′ ∝ u ^a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G _f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ^′ and G _f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s²). The resulting fracture energy G _f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G _f and G ^′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G _f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ^′ appears to increase further and surpasses G _f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.     

Prestack migration velocity analysis based on simplified two-parameter moveout equation

Stacking velocity V _C2, vertical velocity ratio γ ₀, effective velocity ratio γ _eff, and anisotropic parameter χ _eff are correlated in the PS-converted-wave (PS-wave) anisotropic prestack Kirchhoff time migration (PKTM) velocity model and are thus difficult to independently determine. We extended the simplified two-parameter (stacking velocity V _C2 and anisotropic parameter k _eff) moveout equation from stacking velocity analysis to PKTM velocity model updating and formed a new four-parameter (stacking velocity V _C2, vertical velocity ratio γ ₀, effective velocity ratio γ _eff, and anisotropic parameter k _eff) PS-wave anisotropic PKTM velocity model updating and process flow based on the simplified two-parameter moveout equation. In the proposed method, first, the PS-wave two-parameter stacking velocity is analyzed to obtain the anisotropic PKTM initial velocity and anisotropic parameters; then, the velocity and anisotropic parameters are corrected by analyzing the residual moveout on common imaging point gathers after prestack time migration. The vertical velocity ratio γ ₀ of the prestack time migration velocity model is obtained with an appropriate method utilizing the P- and PS-wave stacked sections after level calibration. The initial effective velocity ratio γ _eff is calculated using the Thomsen (1999) equation in combination with the P-wave velocity analysis; ultimately, the final velocity model of the effective velocity ratio γ _eff is obtained by percentage scanning migration. This method simplifies the PS-wave parameter estimation in high-quality imaging, reduces the uncertainty of multiparameter estimations, and obtains good imaging results in practice.     

Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity Before Large Taiwanese Earthquakes Using the G-R Law

Seismicity has been identified as an example of a natural, nonlinear system for which the distribution of frequency and event size follow a power law called the “Gutenberg–Richter (G-R) law.” The parameters of the G-R law, namely b- and a-values, have been widely used in many studies about seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting models, and other related topics. However, the plausibility of the power law model and applicability of parameters were mainly verified by statistical error σ of the b-value, the effectiveness of which is still doubtful. In this research, we used a newly defined p value developed by Clausetet al. (Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data, SIAM Rev. 51, 661–703, 2009) instead of the statistical error σ of the b-value and verified its effectiveness as a plausibility index of the power-law model. Furthermore, we also verified the effectiveness of K–S statistics as a goodness-of-fit test in estimating the crucial parameter \(M_{\text{c}}\) of the power-law model.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.