Multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming for planning water resources allocation

In this study, a multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming (MSISP) method is developed for water-resources allocation under uncertainty. MSISP improves upon the existing multistage optimization methods with advantages in uncertainty reflection, dynamics facilitation, and risk analysis. It can directly handle uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions, and can support the assessment of the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) system constraints within a multistage context. It can also reflect the dynamics of system uncertainties and decision processes under a representative set of scenarios. The developed MSISP method is then applied to a case of water resources management planning within a multi-reservoir system associated with joint probabilities. A range of violation levels for capacity and environment constraints are analyzed under uncertainty. Solutions associated different risk levels of constraint violation have been obtained. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help water managers to identify desired policies under various economic, environmental and system-reliability conditions. Besides, sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the violation of the environmental constraint has a significant effect on the system benefit.     

Optimal allocation of computational resources in hydrogeological models under uncertainty

Flow and transport models in heterogeneous geological formations are usually large-scale with excessive computational complexity and uncertain characteristics. Uncertainty quantification for predicting subsurface flow and transport often entails utilizing a numerical Monte Carlo framework, which repeatedly simulates the model according to a random field parameter representing hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer. The physical resolution (e.g. spatial grid resolution) for the simulation is customarily chosen based on recommendations in the literature, independent of the number of Monte Carlo realizations. This practice may lead to either excessive computational burden or inaccurate solutions. We develop an optimization-based methodology that considers the trade-off between the following conflicting objectives: time associated with computational costs, statistical convergence of the model prediction and physical errors corresponding to numerical grid resolution. Computational resources are allocated by considering the overall error based on a joint statistical–numerical analysis and optimizing the error model subject to a given computational constraint. The derived expression for the overall error explicitly takes into account the joint dependence between the discretization error of the physical space and the statistical error associated with Monte Carlo realizations. The performance of the framework is tested against computationally extensive simulations of flow and transport in spatially heterogeneous aquifers. Results show that modelers can achieve optimum physical and statistical resolutions while keeping a minimum error for a given computational time. The physical and statistical resolutions obtained through our analysis yield lower computational costs when compared to the results obtained with prevalent recommendations in the literature. Lastly, we highlight the significance of the geometrical characteristics of the contaminant source zone on the optimum physical and statistical resolutions.     

A robust risk analysis method for water resources allocation under uncertainty

A robust risk analysis method (RRAM) is developed for water resource decision making under uncertainty. This method incorporates interval-parameter programming and robust optimization within a stochastic programming framework. In the RRAM formulation, penalties are exercised with the recourse against any infeasibility, and robustness measures are introduced to examine the variability of the second stage costs which are above the expected levels. In this study, a number of weighting levels are considered which correspond to the robustness levels of risk control. Generally, a plan with a higher robust level would better resist from system risk. Thus, decision with a lower robust level can correspond to a higher risk of system failure. There is a tradeoff between system cost and system reliability. The RRAM is applied to a case of water resource management. The modeling results can help generate desired decision alternatives that will be particularly useful for risk-aversive decision makers in handling high-variability conditions. The results provide opportunities to managers to make decisions based on their own preferences on system stability and economy, and ensure that the management policies and plans be made with reasonable consideration of both system cost and risk.     

Implementing environmental flows in integrated water resources management and the ecosystem approach

Abstract

In many of the world’s river basins, the water resources are over-allocated and/or highly modified, access to good quality water is limited or competitive and aquatic ecosystems are degraded. The decline in aquatic ecosystems can impact on human well-being by reducing the ecosystem services provided by healthy rivers, wetlands and floodplains. Basin water resources management requires the determination of water allocation among competing stakeholders including the environment, social needs and economic development. Traditionally, this determination occurred on a volumetric basis to meet basin productivity goals. However, it is difficult to address environmental goals in such a framework, because environmental condition is rarely considered in productivity goals, and short-term variations in river flow may be the most important driver of aquatic ecosystem health. Manipulation of flows to achieve desired outcomes for public supply, food and energy has been implemented for many years. More recently, manipulating flows to achieve ecological outcomes has been proposed. However, the complexity of determining the required flow regimes and the interdependencies between stakeholder outcomes has restricted the implementation of environmental flows as a core component of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). We demonstrate through case studies of the Rhône and Thames river basins in Europe, the Colorado River basin in North America and the Murray-Darling basin in Australia the limitations of traditional environmental flow strategies in integrated water resources management. An alternative ecosystem approach can provide a framework for implementation of environmental flows in basin water resources management, as demonstrated by management of the Pangani River basin in Africa. An ecosystem approach in IWRM leads to management for agreed triple-bottom-line outcomes, rather than productivity or ecological outcomes alone. We recommend that environmental flow management should take on the principles of an ecosystem approach and form an integral part of IWRM.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Overton, I.C., Smith, D.M., Dalton J., Barchiesi S., Acreman M.C., Stromberg, J.C., and Kirby, J.M., 2014. Implementing environmental flows in integrated water resources management and the ecosystem approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 860–877.     

Impacts of environmental stressors on the water resources of intensively managed hydrologic systems

Watersheds are complex systems due to their surface and subsurface spatially connected water fluxes and biochemical processes that shape Earth's critical zone. In intensively managed landscapes, the implementation of watershed management practices (WMPs) regulate their short‐term responses, whereas climate variability controls the long‐term processes. Understanding their responses to anthropogenic and natural stressors requires a holistic approach that takes into account their multiscale spatio‐temporal linkages. The objective of this study was to simulate the impacts of spatially and temporally varying WMPs and projected climate changes on the surface and groundwater resources in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (USRB), a watershed in central Illinois greatly impacted by agricultural and industrial operations. The physically based hydrologic model MIKE‐SHE was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the basin to different WMPs and climatic conditions. The simulation of a WMP was varied spatially across the basin to determine the spectrum of responses and critical conditions. In general, the wetlands and forested riparian buffer scenarios were found to cause a reduction in the average streamflow, whereas crop rotation had varied responses depending on the location of implementation and the climate condition assumed. Reductions of up to 30% in the average streamflow were found for the forested riparian buffer under the ESM 2M climate projections, whereas an increase of up to 13% with the crop rotation schemes under CM3 climate was predicted. The model results showed that the installation of tile drains across the USRB increased the water table depth (from ground level) by up to 56%, making crop production possible. Groundwater level in USRB appeared to be more sensitive to future climatic conditions than to WMP implementation. The impacts of WMPs are determined to depend on the climate conditions under which they are applied. Investigating individual and combined stressors' effects over the critical zone at a watershed scale can lead to a more comprehensive analysis of the risk and trade‐offs in every managerial decision that will enable an efficient use of resources.     

Optimal allocation of water quantity and waste load in the Northwest Pearl River Delta,China

The Northwest Pearl River Delta is one of the most developed areas in China and has faced serious water problems because of its fast economic growth, urbanisation and other developments. It is widely believed that an integrated management of the socio-economic factors cross individual administrative cities is an effective way to solve the water problems. To serve this purpose, this paper aims to develop an integrated model for the optimal allocation of water quantity and waste load. In order to consider the interaction between water quantity and waste load allocation, the Saint-Venant equations were used to simulate dynamic water flow for the water quantity allocation, whereas the one dimensional advection–dispersion mass transport equation was used to simulate water quality for the waste load allocation. In addition to the maximisation of the economic benefits, which is often considered as an objective of optimal water resource allocation models, the minimisation of water shortages and maximisation of waste load were also introduced as objectives of the model. To solve the multi-objective allocation model, a second generation non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm was employed because of its computational efficiency and running time. The results indicate that it is a serious task to reduce the COD in the Northwest Pearl River Delta since the maximum waste load allocations under water quality targets is less than the present amount of waste discharged into rivers in the study area.     

Utilization of water resources,ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin,Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin, the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasis ecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertification and oasis development coexist, both “the human being advance and the desert retreat” and “the desert advance and the human being retreat” coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upper reaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases have been enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmont plains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oases have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging, and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grasslands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, their shelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seriously.

     

Utilization of water resources, ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin,the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasisecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertifi-cation and oasis development coexist, both "the human being advance and the desert retreat" and"the desert advance and the human being retreat" coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upperreaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases havebeen enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmontplains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oa-ses have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging,and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grass-lands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, theirshelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seri-ously.     

Utilization of water resources,ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin,Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin, the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasis ecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertification and oasis development coexist, both “the human being advance and the desert retreat” and “the desert advance and the human being retreat” coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upper reaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases have been enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmont plains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oases have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging, and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grasslands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, their shelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seriously.     

International scientific conference on problems of water resources, geothermy, and geoecology

Chronicle

International scientific conference on problems of water resources, geothermy, and geoecology     

Numerical simulation of water resources problems: Models,methods, and trends

Mechanistic modeling of water resources systems is a broad field with abundant challenges. We consider classes of model formulations that are considered routine, the focus of current work, and the foundation of foreseeable work over the coming decade. These model formulations are used to assess the current and evolving state of solution algorithms, discretization methods, nonlinear and linear algebraic solution methods, computational environments, and hardware trends and implications. The goal of this work is to provide guidance to enable modelers of water resources systems to make sensible choices when developing solution methods based upon the current state of knowledge and to focus future collaborative work among water resources scientists, applied mathematicians, and computational scientists on productive areas.     

Reviews on land use change induced effects on regional hydrological ecosystem services for integrated water resources management

This paper proposed to provide valuable information for integrated water resources management through evaluating the research on the interaction mechanism among land use changes, regional hydrological ecosystem services and human well-being. Firstly, the driving mechanism of land use and land cover changes was introduced in this paper. Secondly, the overview of the interaction mechanism among land use and land cover changes, regional hydrological ecosystem services and human well-being was given. Based on the meta-analysis, land use changes have a profound influence on regional hydrological ecosystem services, and the variation of hydrological ecosystem could benefit or impair human well-being. Finally, two suggestions were emphasized for managers or policy makers for the future integrated water resources management: (1) Proper land use makes for the water resource management; (2) Blindly pursuing the provisioning services weakens other services of hydrological ecosystem.     

A framework for resolving the transboundary water allocation conflict conundrum

This paper describes a methodology for resolving transboundary water disputes that arise when people/states/nations sharing a resource that crosses legal/political jurisdictions disagree about the use of the resource. Laws and treaties written in an attempt to settle disputes are frequently neither enforced nor effective, and disagreements continue. Crises, arising through resource overuse or shortages, worsen the conflict and typically result in further discord, lawsuits, depletion of the resource, and even open-armed hostility. Many water management experts call for either private/market-based or state/command-and-control resource management systems, but these eventually break down during crisis. The crises therefore necessitate the adoption of a more effective institutional arrangement to address and resolve present and future problems. A better alternative to management by private or state entities and the resolution of conflicts by the mere application of law is a cooperative approach. The Rowland-Ostrom Framework, introduced in this paper, incorporates Ostrom's eight design principles for sustainable common pool resource management within the context of crisis that involves an urgent threat to the quantity or quality of a resource such as water, as described by the author. This paper demonstrates that although established 15 years ago, Ostrom's design principles remain applicable today for effective, sustainable transboundary water management, and the Rowland-Ostrom Framework is a model for the equitable use of shared water resources throughout the world.     

Effect of climate and land use change in Ebinur Lake Basin during the past five decades on hydrology and water resources

Remote-sensing images of Ebinur Lake Basin including six years (1960, 1972, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010) were interpreted through RS and GIS. Land use changes in Ebinur Lake Basin during the past five decades were analyzed according to interpretation results. On this basis, effect of land use changes on hydrology and water resources was analyzed. Results show that the land use pattern in Ebinur Lake Basin changed greatly from 1960 to 2010. Cultivated Land and Urban-Rural Construction Land increased, while other landuse types decreased. Most areas were Unused Land. Generally, oasis expanded continuously, but oasis in Ganjiahu Zone at downstream of the Kuitun River Basin reduced to some extent. Runoff of the Kuitun River and Jinghe River increased gradually, but runoff of the Bortala River reduced continuously. Both inflows and lake area declined year by year. The groundwater level dropped significantly and water deteriorated continuously. Due to the decelerating wind blowing, evaporation in the basin reduced accordingly. Hydrology and water resources changes in Ebinur Lake Basin in past five decades were mainly caused by continuous expansion of Cultivated Land and oasis, continuous population growth and hydraulic engineering constructions. However, oasis expansion shall be limited within the carrying capacity of water resources. To maintain ecological security in the basin, it is necessary to determine reasonable oasis area, optimize river system structure, and improve utilization efficiency of water resources.     

Harmonization of strategies for the use of transboundary water resources

An approach to developing harmonized strategies of the use of transboundary water resources is considered. The principle of open management is examined in two possible situations of strategy development—either there is no agreement between governments regarding the use of a transboundary water body, or the existing agreement is to be revised. Perfect harmonization is attained in both variants.