Detection of temporal changes in the spatial distribution of cancer rates using local Moran’s I and geostatistically simulated spatial neutral models

This paper presents the first application of spatially correlated neutral models to the detection of changes in mortality rates across space and time using the local Morans I statistic. Sequential Gaussian simulation is used to generate realizations of the spatial distribution of mortality rates under increasingly stringent conditions: 1) reproduction of the sample histogram, 2) reproduction of the pattern of spatial autocorrelation modeled from the data, 3) incorporation of regional background obtained by geostatistical smoothing of observed mortality rates, and 4) incorporation of smooth regional background observed at a prior time interval. The simulated neutral models are then processed using two new spatio-temporal variants of the Morans I statistic, which allow one to identify significant changes in mortality rates above and beyond past spatial patterns. Last, the results are displayed using an original classification of clusters/outliers tailored to the space-time nature of the data. Using this new methodology the space-time distribution of cervix cancer mortality rates recorded over all US State Economic Areas (SEA) is explored for 9 time periods of 5 years each. Incorporation of spatial autocorrelation leads to fewer significant SEA units than obtained under the traditional assumption of spatial independence, confirming earlier claims that Type I errors may increase when tests using the assumption of independence are applied to spatially correlated data. Integration of regional background into the neutral models yields substantially different spatial clusters and outliers, highlighting local patterns which were blurred when local Morans I was applied under the null hypothesis of constant risk.This research was funded by grants R01 CA92669 and 1R43CA105819-01 from the National Cancer Institute and R43CA92807 under the Innovation in Biomedical Information Science and Technology Initiative at the National Institute of Health. The views stated in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the NCI. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve the presentation of the methodology.     

Analytical 3D views and virtual globes — scientific results in a familiar spatial context

In this paper we introduce analytical three-dimensional (3D) views as a means for effective and comprehensible information delivery, using virtual globes and the third dimension as an additional information carrier. Four case studies are presented, in which information extraction results from very high spatial resolution (VHSR) satellite images were conditioned and aggregated or disaggregated to regular spatial units. The case studies were embedded in the context of: (1) urban life quality assessment (Salzburg/Austria); (2) post-disaster assessment (Harare/Zimbabwe); (3) emergency response (Lukole/Tanzania); and (4) contingency planning (faked crisis scenario/Germany). The results are made available in different virtual globe environments, using the implemented contextual data (such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, and auxiliary geodata) as valuable additional context information. Both day-to-day users and high-level decision makers are addressees of this tailored information product. The degree of abstraction required for understanding a complex analytical content is balanced with the ease and appeal by which the context is conveyed.     

Dynamics of inequality and growth in Europe: may spatial models solve the puzzle?

Journal of Geographical Systems - The link between income inequality and economic growth remains poorly understood. The global economic crisis challenged numerous growth studies by highlighting...     

Analysing spatial–temporal changes in rice cultivation practices in the Senegal River Valley using MODIS time-series and the PhenoRice algorithm

In this study we used the PhenoRice algorithm to track recent variations of rice cultivation practices along the Senegal River Valley. Time series of MODIS imagery with 250 m spatial resolution and a nominal 8-days frequency were used as input for the algorithm to map the spatial and temporal variations of rice cultivated area and of several important phenological metrics (e.g., crop establishment and harvesting dates, length of season) for the 2003–2016 period in both the dry and the wet rice cultivation seasons. Comparison between PhenoRice results and ancillary and field data available for the Senegal part of the study area showed that the algorithm is able to track the interannual variations of rice cultivated area, despite the total detected rice area being consistently underestimated. PhenoRice estimates of crop establishment and harvesting dates resulted accurate when compared with field observations available for two sub-regions for a period of 10 years, and thus allow assessing interannual variability and tracking changes in agronomic practices. An analysis of interannual trends of rice growing practices based on PhenoRice results highlighted a clear shift of rice cultivation from the wet to the dry season starting approximately from 2008. The shift was found to be particularly evident in the delta part of the SRV. Additionally, a statistically significant trend was revealed starting 2006 towards a longer dry season (r² = 0.81; Slope = 1.24 days y⁻¹) and a shorter wet season (r² = 0.65; Slope = 0.53 days y⁻¹). These findings are in agreement with expert knowledge of changes ongoing in the area. In particular the shorter wet season is attributed to shortage of labor and equipment leading to a delay in completion of harvesting operations in the dry season, which led to the adoption of short-duration rice varieties by farmers in the wet season to avoid risk of yield losses due to climatic constraints. Aforementioned results highlight the usefulness of the PhenoRice algorithm for providing insights about recent variations in rice cultivation practices over large areas in developing countries, where high-quality up to date information about changes in agricultural practices are often lacking.     

Fuzzy topological relations between fuzzy spatial objects

Fuzziness is an internal property of spatial objects.How to model fuzziness of a spatial object is a main task of next generation GIS.This paper proposes basic fuzzy spatial object types based on fuzzy topology.These object types are the natural extension of current nonfuzzy spatial object types.A fuzzy cell complex structure is defined for modeling fuzzy regions,lines and points.Furthermore,fuzzy topological relations between these fuzzy spatial objects are formalized based on the 9intersection approach.This model can be implemented for GIS applications due to its scientific theory basis.     

From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000

Why is population not evenly distributed throughout a country’s territory? This paper focuses on the case of Spain, in order to empirically test two complementary theoretical explanations: (a) first nature advantages or locational fundamentals; and (b) second nature advantages or increasing returns. We estimate population density and population growth equations for the case of Spain between 1787 and 2000. Our results suggest that locational fundamentals explain the distribution of population prior to industrialization and that industrialization reinforced the pre-existing regional population disparities, especially as the share of increasing-returns sectors in the Spanish economy became significant. Finally, we perform an ANOVA analysis which shows that although in the pre-industrial economy first nature advantages were the most important in explaining the growth in provincial population densities, these were progressively superseded by the influence of first via second nature effects.     

NDVI dynamics as reflected in climatic variables: spatial and temporal trends – a case study of Hungary

Understanding climate change and revealing its future paths on a local level is a great challenge for the future. Beside the expanding sets of available climatic data, satellite images provide a valuable source of information. In our study we aimed to reveal whether satellite data are an appropriate way to identify global trends, given their shorter available time range. We used the CARPATCLIM (CC) database (1961–2010) and the MODIS NDVI images (2000–2016) and evaluated the time period covered by both (2000–2010). We performed a regression analysis between the NDVI and CC variables, and a time series analysis for the 1961–2008 and 2000–2008 periods at all data points. The results justified the belief that maximum temperature (TMAX), potential evapotranspiration and aridity all have a strong correlation with the NDVI; furthermore, the short period trend of TMAX can be described with a functional connection with its long period trend. Consequently, TMAX is an appropriate tool as an explanatory variable for NDVI spatial and temporal variance. Spatial pattern analysis revealed that with regression coefficients, macro-regions reflected topography (plains, hills and mountains), while in the case of time series regression slopes, it justified a decreasing trend from western areas (Transdanubia) to eastern ones (The Great Hungarian Plain). This is an important consideration for future agricultural and land use planning; i.e. that western areas have to allow for greater effects of climate change.     

Isard’s contributions to spatial interaction modeling

This short review, surveys Isards role in promoting what has become known as spatial interaction modeling. Some contextual information on the milieu from which his work emerged is given, together with a selected number of works that are judged to have been influenced (directly and indirectly) by his work. It is suggested that this burgeoning field owes a lot to the foundations laid in the gravity model chapter of Methods. The review is supplemented by a rather extensive bibliography of additional works that are indicative of the breadth of the impact of this field.     

Part 3 Specialized aspects of GIS and spatial analysis

GIS and spatial analysis is suited mainly for static pictures of the landscape, but many of the processes that need exploring are dynamic in nature. Dynamic processes can be complex when put in a spatial context; our ability to study such processes will probably come with advances in understanding complex systems in general. Cellular automata and agent-based models are two prime candidates for exploring complex spatial systems, but are difficult to implement. Innovative tools that help build complex simulations will create larger user communities, who will probably find novel solutions for understanding complexity. A significant source for such innovations is likely to be from the collective efforts of hobbyists and part-time programmers, who have been dubbed “garage-band scientists” in the popular press.     

Context-dependent spatial analysis: A role for GIS?

The relationship between spatial analysis and GIS has been a debating point for over a decade. Some see GIS as leading the way to a new era in which the desire and the ability to analyse spatial data is widespread, not just in geography but throughout all disciplines in which spatial data are encountered. Others see GIS as simply providing a medium for the recycling of out-dated spatial analytical techniques and models. This paper describes a role for GIS through the development of new forms of ‘local’ or ‘context-dependent’ spatial analytical methods in which the focus is on exceptions to the general trend represented by the more traditional ‘global’ methods.     

Urbanization in China from the end of 1980s until 2010 – spatial dynamics and patterns of growth using EO-data

Urbanization in China has been experiencing a remarkable dynamism in the past 40 years. The most evident implication of urbanization is the physical growth of cities. We analyze urban land growth rates and changes in spatial urban forms from the end of the 1980s to 2010 based on the authoritative National Land Use/Cover Database of China. We present new spatial measures that describe ‘urban land growth types’ and ‘fluctuations in urban land growth’ within the monitoring time span with a temporal interval of five-year steps. We evaluate the correlations between urban land growth rates and socioeconomic data. Results show that (1) distinct characteristics exist on the spatiotemporal evolutions of urban land growth rates in terms of area and perimeter, e.g. coastal areas exhibit the most dramatic growth rates; (2) the spatial distribution characteristics of ‘urban land growth types’ and ‘fluctuations in urban land growth’ follow similar spatial patterns across China, e.g. significant differences exist between the eastern region and other regions; and (3) a moderate correlation exists between urban area growth rate and urban population growth rate at an R² of 0.37. By contrast, we determine no significant correlation between urban area growth rate and tertiary industry value growth rate.     

Analysis and simulation of land use spatial pattern in Harbin prefecture based on trajectories and cellular automata—Markov modelling

There have been rapid population and accelerating urban growth with associated changes in land use and soil degradation in northeast China, an important grain-producing region. The development of integrated use of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and combined cellular automata– Markov models has provided new means of assessing changes in land use and land cover, and has enabled projection of trajectories into the future. We applied such techniques to the prefecture-level city of Harbin, the tenth largest city in China. We found that there had been significant losses of the land uses termed “cropland”, “grassland”, “wetland”, and “floodplain” in favour of “built-up land” and lesser transformations from “floodplain” to “forestland” and “water body” over the 18-year period. However, the transition was not a simple process but a complex network of changes, interchanges, and multiple transitions. In the absence of effective land use policies, projection of past trajectories into a balance state in the future would result in the decline of cropland from 65.6% to 46.9% and the increase of built-up area from 7.7% to 23.0% relative to the total area of the prefecture in 1989. It also led to the virtual elimination of land use types such as unused wetland and floodplain.     

What path and how fast? The effect of flight time and path on user spatial understanding in map tour animations

GIScience scholars have identified map tours as an important visualization type for communicating spatial information: map tours are animations where the virtual camera moves through space and are common on the web, mobile devices, and television. Understanding how to enhance their effectiveness is timely because of recent, growing interest in virtual reality and animated map presentation tools such as Esri Story Maps? and Google Earth? tours. Despite this popularity, little empirical evidence exists about how people learn from map tours and how they should best be designed to improve effectiveness. This research is aimed at answering that need. An empirical study is described, which was designed to understand how virtual camera speed, path, and dynamic tilting within a map tour influence subjects’ ability to develop survey knowledge. The results of the experiment show that paths encompassing overviews of the landscape improve the viewer’s ability to build up survey knowledge; that tilting appears to have a much weaker effect; and that combining fast speed and a difficult path within a map tour increases the viewer’s cognitive load.     

The GeoCitizen-approach: community-based spatial planning – an Ecuadorian case study

Over the last years, geospatial web platforms, social media, and volunteered geographic information (VGI) have opened a window of opportunity for traditional Public Participatory GIS (PPGIS) to usher in a new era. Taking advantage of these technological achievements, this paper presents a new approach for a citizen-orientated framework of spatial planning that aims at integrating participatory community work into existing decision-making structures. One major cornerstone of the presented approach is the application of a social geoweb platform (the GeoCitizen platform) that combines geo-web technologies and social media in one single tool allowing citizens to collaboratively report observations, discuss ideas, solve, and monitor problems in their living environment at a local level. This paper gives an account of an ongoing participatory land-zoning process in the Capital District of Quito, Ecuador, where the GeoCitizen platform is applied in a long-term study.     

Part 4 Technology and the future of GIS and spatial analysis

Geographical Information Science is essentially computational geography and has its own research program, namely all aspects of formal models for spatial natural processes and the interaction of humans with the environment in space and time. This is not a question of technology and technology-related research; but technology influences what questions can be researched effectively. Collection of data in the field and the simulation of field experience through Virtual Reality are just two questions of how spatial reality and human experience are linked. The focus on human spatial cognition is similarly found in software engineering for interoperable Geographic Information Systems.     

Brazilian spatial dynamics in the long term (1872–2000): “path dependency” or “reversal of fortune”?

This paper analyzes the spatial dynamics of Brazilian regional inequalities between 1872 and 2000 using contemporary tools. The first part of the paper provides new estimates of income per capita in 1872 by municipality using census and electoral information on income by occupation. The level of analysis is the Minimum Comparable Areas 1872–2000 developed by Reis et al. (áreas mínimas comparáveis para os períodos intercensitários de 1872 a 2000, 2007). These areas are the least aggregation of adjacent municipalities required to allow consistent geographic area comparisons between census years. In the second section of the paper, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, Markov chains and stochastic kernel techniques (spatially conditioned) are applied to the dataset. The results suggest that, in broad terms, the spatial pattern of income distribution in Brazil during that period of time has remained stable.     

On generalised and specialised spatial information grids: are geo-services ready?

Abstract

After the set-up of a spatial data infrastructure (SDI) and a national information infrastructure (NII) in many countries, the provision of geo-services became one of the most important and attractive tasks. With the integration of global positioning system (GPS), geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), we can, in principle, answer any geo-spatial related question: when and where what object has which changes? An intelligent geo-service agent could provide end-users with the most necessary information in the shortest time and at the lowest cost. Unfortunately there is still a long way to go to achieve such goals. The central component in such geo-services is the integration of the spatial information system with a computing grid via wire- and wireless communication networks. This paper will mainly discuss the grid technology and its integration with spatial information technology, expounding potential problems and possible resolutions. A novel categorising of information grids in the context of geo-spatial information is proposed: generalised and specialised spatial information grids.     

A local spatial decision support system for developing countries based on MCA,fuzzy sets and OWA – case study of a municipality in Cuba

This paper presents a Spatial Decision Support System for local governments of developing countries. It allows municipality government, enterprises, scientific community and civil society to address decision problems using GIS. The framework is supported by four modules of information technologies: Environmental Decision Support Database, Data Manipulation, Decision Support, and Mapping. A case study is presented covering the implementation of this framework in one municipality of Cuba. An example of land suitability planning for coconut crops is used to evaluate the system performance and usability. Results show local municipalities are able to use this framework to solve local decision problems using state of the art decision making even with low infrastructure development.     

Re-examining urban region and inferring regional function based on spatial–temporal interaction

Urban system is shaped by the interactions between different regions and regions planned by the government, then reshaped by human activities and residents’ needs. Understanding the changes of regional structure and dynamics of city function based on the residents’ movement demand are important to evaluate and adjust the planning and management of urban services and internal structures. This paper constructed a probabilistic factor model on the basis of probabilistic latent semantic analysis and tensor decomposition, for purpose of understanding the higher order interactive population mobility and its impact on urban structure changes. First, a four-dimensional tensor of time (T)?×?week (W)?×?origin (O)?×?destination (D) was constructed to identify the day-to-day activities in three time modes and weekly regularity of weekday/weekend pattern. Then we reclassified the urban regions based on the space clustering formed by the space factor matrix and core tensor. Finally, we further analysed the space–time interaction on different time scales to deduce the actual function and connection strength of each region. Our research shows that the application of individual-based spatial–temporal data in human mobility and space–time interaction study can help to analyse urban spatial structure and understand the actual regional function from a new perspective.