A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks

A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic.     

Flux correction: tests with a simple ocean-atmosphere model

 Flux correction schemes are used in order to suppress the drift of coupled ocean atmosphere models. This technique is tested for a simple box model of the climate system. Two “perfect” models of the ocean and the atmosphere are available. These are coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere model representing the true climate system. This climate system is simulated by a climate model which is also constructed by coupling those two perfect models. This time, however, both models are run first separately as models of the atmosphere and the ocean. In that case, “observations” from the climate system are prescribed at the ocean surface in the uncoupled models. It is assumed that these observations are imperfect. A drift results, when these models are coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere stimulation model. A flux adjustment scheme is implemented to remove this drift. It is argued that the merits and shortcomings of the flux correction technique can be assessed more clearly this way than by coupling imperfect models as is done normally. Sensitivity tests are performed where either radiation parameters are changed or a salt anomaly is implanted. Model parameters are chosen such that the ocean has a thermally direct circulation in the unperturbed climate state. It is found that the flux correction technique is performing satisfactorily as long as the imposed perturbations are small enough so that the ocean circulation does not change its sense. If, however, the model climate is close to the transition to an indirect circulation, then the flux correction technique is unreliable. The predictions of the coupled model with flux correction may deviate substantially from the response of the climate system in that case. Received: 4 December 1995/Accepted: 15 October 1996     

A high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of the present climate over California

A fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system that consists of the regional spectral model and the regional ocean modeling system for atmosphere and ocean components, respectively, is applied to downscale the present climate (1985–1994) over California from a global simulation of the Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3). The horizontal resolution of the regional coupled modeling system is 10 km, while that of the CCSM3 is at a spectral truncation of T85 (approximately 1.4°). The effects of the coupling along the California coast in the boreal summer and winter are highlighted. Evaluation of the sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature climatology shows that alleviation of the warm bias along the California coast in the global model output is clear in the regional coupled model run. The 10-m wind is also improved by reducing the northwesterly winds along the coast. The higher resolution coupling effect on the temperature and specific humidity is the largest near the surface, while the significant impact on the wind magnitude appears at a height of approximately 850-hPa heights. The frequency of the Catalina Eddy and its duration are increased by more than 60 % in the coupled downscaling, which is attributed to enhanced offshore sea-breeze. Our study indicates that coupling is vital to regional climate downscaling of mesoscale phenomena over coastal areas.     

Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models

Most of the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be connected with differences in the simulated radiative feedback from clouds. Traditional methods of evaluating clouds in GCMs compare time–mean geographical cloud fields or aspects of present-day cloud variability, with observational data. In both cases a hypothetical assumption is made that the quantity evaluated is relevant for the mean climate change response. Nine GCMs (atmosphere models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models) from the CFMIP and CMIP model comparison projects are used in this study to demonstrate a common relationship between the mean cloud response to climate change and present-day variability. Although atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean models are used here, the results are found to be equally applicable to transient coupled model simulations. When changes in cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are composited by changes in vertical velocity and saturated lower tropospheric stability, a component of the local mean climate change response can be related to present-day variability in all of the GCMs. This suggests that the relationship is not model specific and might be relevant in the real world. In this case, evaluation within the proposed compositing framework is a direct evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change. None of the models studied are found to be clearly superior or deficient when evaluated, but a couple appear to perform well on several relevant metrics. Whilst some broad similarities can be identified between the 60°N–60°S mean change in CRF to increased CO₂ and that predicted from present-day variability, the two cannot be quantitatively constrained based on changes in vertical velocity and stability alone. Hence other processes also contribute to the global mean cloud response to climate change.     

The Response of Arctic Sea Ice to Global Change

The sea ice-covered polar oceans have received wider attention recently for two reasons. Firstly, the global conveyor belt circulation of the ocean is believed to be forced in the North and South Atlantic through deep water formation, which to a large degree is controlled by the variations of the sea ice margin and especially by the sea ice export to lower latitudes. Secondly, CO₂ response experiments with coupled climate models show an enhanced warming in polar regions for increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Whether this large response in high latitudes is due to real physical feedback processes or to unrealistic simplifications of the sea ice model component remains to be determined. Coupled climate models generally use thermodynamic sea ice models or sea ice models with oversimplified dynamics schemes. Realistic dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models are presently implemented only at a few modeling centers. Sensitivity experiments with thermodynamic and dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models show that the more sophisticated models are less sensitive to perturbations of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions. Because of the importance of the role of sea ice in mediating between atmosphere and ocean an improved representation of sea ice in global climate models is required. This paper discusses present sea ice modeling as well as the sensitivity of the sea ice cover to changes in the atmospheric boundary conditions. These numerical experiments indicate that the sea ice follows a smooth response function: sea ice thickness and export change by 2% of the mean value per 1 Wm^-2 change of the radiative forcing.     

Global ocean circulation and equator-pole heat transport as a function of ocean GCM resolution

To determine whether resolution of smaller scales is necessary to simulate large-scale ocean climate correctly, I examine results from a global ocean GCM run with different horizontal grid spacings. The horizontal grid spacings span a range from coarse resolutions traditionally used in climate modeling to nearly the highest resolution attained with today's computers. The experiments include four cases employing 4°, 2°, 1° and 1/2° spacing in latitude and longitude, which were run with minimal differences among them, i.e., in a controlled experiment. Two additional cases, 1/2° spacing with a more scale-selective sub-gridscale mixing of heat and momentum, and approximate 1/2° spacing, are also included. The 1/2° run resolves most of the observed mesoscale eddy energy in the ocean. Artificial constraints on the model tend to minimize differences among the different resolution cases. Nevertheless, the simulations show significant changes as resolution increases. These changes generally but not always bring the model into better agreement with observations. Differences are typically more noticeable when comparing the 4° and 2° runs than when comparing the 2° and 1° runs or the 1° and 1/2° runs. A reasonable conclusion to draw for current studies with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs is that the ocean grid spacing could be set to about 1° to accrue the benefits of enhanced resolution without paying an excessively steep price in computer-time cost. The model's poleward heat transport at 1/2° grid spacing peaks at about 1 × 10¹⁵ W in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.5 × 10¹⁵ W in the Southern Hemisphere. These values are significantly below observations, a problem typical of ocean GCMs even when they are less constrained than in the present study. This present problem is alleviated somewhat in the 1/2° run. In this case, however, the eddies resolved by the model generally act to counter rather than to reinforce the heat transport of the mean flow. Improved heat transport may result less from enhanced resolution than from other changes made in this version of the model, such as more accurate wind forcing.     

Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change

Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new approach in which modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing uncertain parameters. The aim is to provide a basis for probabilistic predictions in which the impact of prior assumptions and observational constraints can be clearly distinguished. Here we report on the first perturbed physics coupled atmosphere–ocean model ensemble in which poorly constrained atmosphere, land and sea-ice component parameters are varied in the third version of the Hadley Centre model (the variation of ocean parameters will be the subject of future study). Flux adjustments are employed, both to reduce regional sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases and also to admit the use of combinations of model parameter values which give non-zero values for the global radiation balance. This improves the extent to which the ensemble provides a credible basis for the quantification of uncertainties in climate change, especially at a regional level. However, this particular implementation of flux-adjustments leads to a weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, resulting in the development of biases in SST and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Nevertheless, model versions are produced which are of similar quality to the unperturbed and un-flux-adjusted version. The ensemble is used to simulate pre-industrial conditions and a simple scenario of a 1% per year compounded increase in CO₂. The range of transient climate response (the 20 year averaged global warming at the time of CO₂ doubling) is 1.5–2.6°C, similar to that found in multi-model studies. Measures of global and large scale climate change from the coupled models show simple relationships with associated measures computed from atmosphere-mixed-layer-ocean climate change experiments, suggesting that recent advances in computing the probability density function of climate change under equilibrium conditions using the perturbed physics approach may be extended to the transient case.     

Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2: experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model

A version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model — a global, spectral (R15) general circulation model — is coupled to a coarse-grid (5° latitude-] longitude, four-layer) ocean general circulation model to study the response of the climate system to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Three simulations are run: one with an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂ (from 330 to 660 ppm), another with the CO₂ concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at a rate of 1% per year, and a third with CO₂ held constant at 330 pm. Results at the end of 30 years of simulation indicate a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 1.6° C for the instantaneous doubling case and 0.7°C for the transient forcing case. Inherent characteristics of the coarse-grid ocean model flow sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes] produce lower sensitivity in this model after 30 years than in earlier simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m, slab-ocean mixed layer. Within the limitations of the simulated meridional overturning, the thermohaline circulation weakens in the coupled model with doubled CO₂ as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and westerly wind stress is decreased. In the transient forcing case with slowly increasing CO₂ (30% increase after 30 years), the zonal mean warming of the ocean is most evident in the surface layer near 30°–50° S. Geographical plots of surface air temperature change in the transient case show patterns of regional climate anomalies that differ from those in the instantaneous CO₂ doubling case, particularly in the North Atlantic and northern European regions. This suggests that differences in CO₂ forcing in the climate system are important in CO₂ response in regard to time-dependent climate anomaly regimes. This confirms earlier studies with simple climate models that instantaneous CO₂ doubling simulations may not be analogous in all respects to simulations with slowly increasing CO₂.A portion of this study is supported by the US Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program     

An efficient climate model with a 3D ocean and statistical–dynamical atmosphere*

We describe a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity designed for use in global warming experiments. The atmospheric component is a two-dimensional (zonally averaged) statistical-dynamical model based on the Goddard Institute for Space Study's atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). In contrast with energy-balance models used in some climate models of intermediate complexity, this model includes full representation of the hydrological and momentum cycles. It also has parameterizations of the main physical processes, including a sophisticated radiation code. The ocean component is a coarse resolution ocean GCM with simplified global geometry based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model. Because of the simplified geometry the resolution in the western boundary layers can be readily increased compared to conventional coarse resolution models, without increasing the model's computational requirements in a significant way. The ocean model's efficiency is also greatly increased by using a moderate degree of asynchronous coupling between the oceanic momentum and tracer fields. We demonstrate that this still allows an accurate simulation of transient behavior, including the seasonal cycle. A 100 years simulation with the model requires less than 8 hours on a state-of the art workstation. The main novelty of the model is therefore a combination of computational efficiency, statistical-dynamical atmosphere and 3D ocean. Long-term present-day climate simulations are carried out using the coupled model with and without flux adjustments, and with either the Gent-McWilliams (GM) parametrization scheme or horizontal diffusion (HD) in the ocean. Deep ocean temperatures systematically decrease in the runs without flux adjustment. We demonstrate that the mismatch between heat transports in the uncoupled states of two models is the main cause for the systematic drift. In addition, changes in the circulation and sea-ice formation also contribute to the drift. Flux adjustments in the freshwater fluxes are shown to have a stabilizing effect on the thermohaline circulation in the model, whereas the adjustments in the heat fluxes tend to weaken the global "conveyor". To evaluate the model's response to transient external forcing global warming simulations are also carried out with the flux-adjusted version of the coupled model. The coupled model reproduces reasonably well the behavior of more sophisticated coupled GCMs for both current climate and for the global warming scenarios.     

Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: part I: boreal summer and fall seasons

This paper shows demonstrable improvement in the global seasonal climate predictability of boreal summer (at zero lead) and fall (at one season lead) seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature from a two-tiered seasonal hindcast forced with forecasted SST relative to two other contemporary operational coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. The results from an extensive set of seasonal hindcasts are analyzed to come to this conclusion. This improvement is attributed to: (1) The multi-model bias corrected SST used to force the atmospheric model. (2) The global atmospheric model which is run at a relatively high resolution of 50 km grid resolution compared to the two other coupled ocean–atmosphere models. (3) The physics of the atmospheric model, especially that related to the convective parameterization scheme. The results of the seasonal hindcast are analyzed for both deterministic and probabilistic skill. The probabilistic skill analysis shows that significant forecast skill can be harvested from these seasonal hindcasts relative to the deterministic skill analysis. The paper concludes that the coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal hindcasts have reached a reasonable fidelity to exploit their SST anomaly forecasts to force such relatively higher resolution two tier prediction experiments to glean further boreal summer and fall seasonal prediction skill.     

Influence of coupling on atmosphere, sea ice and ocean regional models in the Ross Sea sector, Antarctica

Air–sea ice–ocean interactions in the Ross Sea sector form dense waters that feed the global thermohaline circulation. In this paper, we develop the new limited-area ocean–sea ice–atmosphere coupled model TANGO to simulate the Ross Sea sector. TANGO is built up by coupling the atmospheric limited-area model MAR to a regional configuration of the ocean–sea ice model NEMO. A method is then developed to identify the mechanisms by which local coupling affects the simulations. TANGO is shown to simulate realistic sea ice properties and atmospheric surface temperatures. These skills are mostly related to the skills of the stand alone atmospheric and oceanic models used to build TANGO. Nonetheless, air temperatures over ocean and winter sea ice thickness are found to be slightly improved in coupled simulations as compared to standard stand alone ones. Local atmosphere ocean feedbacks over the open ocean are found to significantly influence ocean temperature and salinity. In a stand alone ocean configuration, the dry and cold air produces an ocean cooling through sensible and latent heat loss. In a coupled configuration, the atmosphere is in turn moistened and warmed by the ocean; sensible and latent heat loss is therefore reduced as compared to the stand alone simulations. The atmosphere is found to be less sensitive to local feedbacks than the ocean. Effects of local feedbacks are increased in the coastal area because of the presence of sea ice. It is suggested that slow heat conduction within sea ice could amplify the feedbacks. These local feedbacks result in less sea ice production in polynyas in coupled mode, with a subsequent reduction in deep water formation.     

Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG／IAP

Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). From the original flux anomalycoupling model developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling model, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.     

Climate drift in an ocean model coupled to a simple,perfectly matched atmosphere

A very simple, diffusive energy balance atmosphere is coupled to the GFDL ocean circulation model. This provides a useful tool for analyzing climate drift in the ocean model after coupling, and may be used to assess various schemes for minimizing such drift. In the experiment reported here, the atmosphere is constructed in such a way that it provides the ocean model at the moment of coupling with the same fluxes as during spinup. The experiment is therefore equivalent to coupling a perfectly flux-corrected atmosphere model, and is used to investigate the response of the ocean model under these conditions. In spite of the steady, passive, flux-corrected atmosphere, the ocean model drifts to a new equilibrium state after coupling. The transition takes about 2000 years; the new state is characterized by different sites of deep convection and resulting changes in high-latitude SST and global deep temperatures. The mechanism for the transition is an instability of the oceanic convection patterns under the new feedback, felt after coupling. A similar state transition of the ocean model may be triggered by the coupling shock in fully coupled GCMs. If this is so, the transition would contaminate the results of climate scenario experiments, and it would explain part of the residual drift observed in coupled models in spite of the use of flux corrections.     

A GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL OF SHALLOW WATER WAVE AND ITS NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

A global coupled air-sea model of shallow water wave is developed based on coupled ocean-atmospheredynamics.The coupling is realized through the air-sea interaction process that the atmosphere acts on theocean by wind stress and the ocean acts on the atmosphere with heating proportional to sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly.The equation is harotropic primitive one.Response experiments of coupling system arealso carried out SSTA in two categories of intensities.Compared with the results of AGCM simulation ex-periment in which only the dynamic change of air system is considered,it demonstrates that the air-seainteraction between the tropical ocean and the global atmosphere plays a very important role in the evolutionof climate system.The results of numerical simulation show that it is encouraging.     

A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS)

 Impulse-response-function (IRF) models are designed for applications requiring a large number of climate change simulations, such as multi-scenario climate impact studies or cost-benefit integrated-assessment studies. The models apply linear response theory to reproduce the characteristics of the climate response to external forcing computed with sophisticated state-of-the-art climate models like general circulation models of the physical ocean-atmosphere system and three-dimensional oceanic-plus-terrestrial carbon cycle models. Although highly computer efficient, IRF models are nonetheless capable of reproducing the full set of climate-change information generated by the complex models against which they are calibrated. While limited in principle to the linear response regime (less than about 3 ^∘C global-mean temperature change), the applicability of the IRF model presented has been extended into the nonlinear domain through explicit treatment of the climate system's dominant nonlinearities: CO₂ chemistry in ocean water, CO₂ fertilization of land biota, and sublinear radiative forcing. The resultant nonlinear impulse-response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) computes the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of climate change for four climate variables of particular relevance for climate impact studies: near-surface temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and sea level. The space-time response characteristics of the model are derived from an EOF analysis of a transient 850-year greenhouse warming simulation with the Hamburg atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3-LSG and a similar response experiment with the Hamburg carbon cycle model HAMOCC. The model is applied to two long-term CO₂ emission scenarios, demonstrating that the use of all currently estimated fossil fuel resources would carry the Earth's climate far beyond the range of climate change for which reliable quantitative predictions are possible today, and that even a freezing of emissions to present-day levels would cause a major global warming in the long term. Received: 28 January 2000 / Accepted: 9 March 2001     

Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance

The future evolution of global ice sheets under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and its impact on the climate system, including the regional climate of the ice sheets, are investigated with a comprehensive earth system model consisting of a coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, a dynamic vegetation model and an ice sheet model. The simulated control climate is realistic enough to permit a direct coupling of the atmosphere and ice sheet components, avoiding the use of anomaly coupling, which represents a strong improvement with respect to previous modelling studies. Glacier ablation is calculated with an energy-balance scheme, a more physical approach than the commonly used degree-day method. Modifications of glacier mask, topographic height and freshwater fluxes by the ice sheets influence the atmosphere and ocean via dynamical and thermodynamical processes. Several simulations under idealized scenarios of greenhouse forcing have been performed, where the atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilizes at two and four times pre-industrial levels. The evolution of the climate system and the ice sheets in the simulations with interactive ice sheets is compared with the simulations with passively coupled ice sheets. For a four-times CO₂ scenario forcing, a faster decay rate of the Greenland ice sheet is found in the non-interactive case, where melting rates are higher. This is caused by overestimation of the increase in near-surface temperature that follows the reduction in topographic height. In areas close to retreating margins, melting rates are stronger in the interactive case, due to changes in local albedo. Our results call for careful consideration of the feedbacks operating between ice sheets and climate after substantial decay of the ice sheets.     

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

 Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model’s sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂ are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM for a variety of transient forcing scenarios. Both surface warming and sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean in response to a gradually increasing forcing are reasonably reproduced on time scales of 100–150 y. However a wide range of diffusion coefficients is needed to match the behavior of different AOGCMs. We use results of simulations with the 2-D model to show that the impact on climate change of the implied uncertainty in the rate of heat penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties. Received: 10 March 1997 / Accepted: 20 October 1997     

Evaluation of ocean and climate models using present‐day observations and forcing

Abstract

The most common method used to evaluate climate models involves spinning them up under perpetual present‐day forcing and comparing the model results with present‐day observations. This approach clearly ignores any potential long‐term memory of the model ocean to past climatic conditions. Here we examine the validity of this approach through the 6000‐year integration of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea‐ice model. The coupled model is initially spun‐up with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and orbital parameters applicable for 6KBP. The model is then integrated forward in time to 2100. Results from this transient coupled model simulation are compared with the results from two additional simulations, in which the model is spun up with perpetual 1850 (preindustrial) and 1998 (present‐day) atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and orbital parameters. This comparison leads to substantial differences between the equilibrium climatologies and the transient simulation, even at 1850 (in weakly ventilated regions), prior to any significant changes in atmospheric CO₂. When compared to the present‐day equilibrium climatology, differences are very large: the global mean surface air and sea surface temperatures are ,0.5°C and ,0.4°C colder, respectively, deep ocean temperatures are substantially cooler, Southern Hemisphere sea‐ice cover is 38% larger, and the North Atlantic conveyor 16% weaker in the transient case. These differences are due to the long timescale memory of the deep ocean to climatic conditions which prevailed throughout the late Holocene, as well as to its large thermal inertia. It is also demonstrated that a ‘cold start’ global warming simulation (one that starts from a 1998 equilibrium climatology) underestimates the global temperature increase at 2100 by ,10%. Our results question the accuracy of current techniques for climate model evaluation and underline the importance of using paleoclimatic simulations in parallel with present‐day simulations in this evaluation process.     

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5)—the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2° and meridional resolution varying from 0.27° at the equator to 0.54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2?°C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.     

Validation of GCM control simulations using indices of daily airflow types over the British Isles

In this study, the control simulations of two general circulation model (GCM) experiments are assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce realistic real world weather. The models examined are the UK Meteorological Office high-resolution atmospheric model (UKHI) and a coupled ocean/atmosphere model of the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologic, Hamburg (MPI). An objective classification of daily airflow patterns over the British Isles is used as a basis for comparing the frequencies of model-generated weather types with the frequencies derived from 110 years of observed mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. The weather-type frequencies generated by the GCMs, and their relationships with simulated monthly mean temperatures and total precipitation over the UK, are compared, season by season, with similar results derived using the observational data. An index of gale frequencies over the British Isles, derived from a similar objective analysis of daily MSLP fields, is used to evaluate the ability of the GCMs to simulate the observed frequency of storm events. One advantage of using 110 years of observational data is that the observed decadal-scale variability of climate can be introduced into this type of validation exercise. Both the GCMs assessed here are too cyclonic in winter. The seasonality of both anticyclonic and cyclonic types is much too strong in MPI and summer precipitation in this model is greatly underestimated. MPI simulates the annual cycle of temperature well, while UKHI successfully reproduces the annual cycle of precipitation. The analysis also indicates that the summer temperature variability of the two models is not driven by circulation changes.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil