Dating lava flows of tropical volcanoes by means of spatial modeling of vegetation recovery

The age of past lava flows is crucial information for evaluating the hazards and risks posed by effusive volcanoes, but traditional dating methods are expensive and time‐consuming. This study proposes an alternative statistical dating method based on remote sensing observations of tropical volcanoes by exploiting the relationship between lava flow age and vegetation cover. First, the factors controlling vegetation density on lava flows, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were investigated. These factors were then integrated into pixel‐based multi‐variable regression models of lava flow age to derive lava flow age maps. The method was tested at a pixel scale on three tropical African volcanoes with considerable recent effusive activity: Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mt Cameroon (Cameroon) and Karthala (the Comoros). Due to different climatic and topographic conditions, the parameters of the spatial modeling are volcano‐specific. Validation suggests that the obtained statistical models are robust and can thus be applied for estimating the age of unmodified undated lava flow surfaces for these volcanoes. When the models are applied to fully vegetated lava flows, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the saturation of NDVI. In order to improve the accuracy of the models, when available, spatial data on temperature and precipitation should be included to directly represent climatic variation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors controlling the lengths of channel-fed lava flows

Factors which control lava flow length are still not fully understood. The assumption that flow length as mainly influenced by viscosity was contested by Walker (1973) who proposed that the length of a lava flow was dependent on the mean effusion rate, and by Malin (1980) who concluded that flow length was dependent on erupted volume. Our reanalysis of Malin's data shows that, if short duration and tube-fed flows are eliminated, Malin's Hawaiian flow data are consistent with Walker's assertion. However, the length of a flow can vary, for a given effusion rate, by a factor of 7, and by up to 10 for a given volume. Factors other than effusion rate and volume are therefore clearly important in controlling the lengths of lava flows. We establish the relative importance of the other factors by performing a multivariate analysis of data for recent Hawaiian lava flows. In addition to generating empirical equations relating flow length to other variables, we have developed a non-isothermal Bingham flow model. This computes the channel and levee width of a flow and hence permits the advance rates of flows and their maximum cooling-limited lengths for different gradients and effusion rates to be calculated. Changing rheological properties are taken into account using the ratio of yield strength to viscosity; available field measurements show that this varies systematically from the vent to the front of a lava flow. The model gives reasonable agreement with data from the 1983–1986 Pu'u Oo eruptions and the 1984 eruption of Mauna Loa. The method has also been applied to andesitic and rhyolitic lava flows. It predicts that, while the more silicic lava flows advance at generally slower rates than basaltic flows, their maximum flow lengths, for a given effusion rate, will be greater than for basaltic lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Influence of fluctuating supply on the emplacement dynamics of channelized lava flows

The evolution of lava flows emplaced on Mount Etna (Italy) in September 2004 is examined in detail through the analysis of morphometric measurements of flow units. The growth of the main channelized flow is consistent with a layering of lava blankets, which maintains the initial geometry of the channel (although levees are widened and raised), and is here explicitly related to the repeated overflow of lava pulses. A simple analytical model is introduced describing the evolution of the flow level in a channelized flow unit fed by a fluctuating supply. The model, named FLOWPULSE, shows that a fluctuation in the velocity of lava extrusion at the vent triggers the formation of pulses, which become increasingly high the farther they are from the vent, and are invariably destined to overflow within a given distance. The FLOWPULSE simulations are in accordance with the observed morphology, characterized by a very flat initial profile followed by a massive increase in flow unit cross-section area between 600 and 700 m downflow. The modeled emplacement dynamics provides also an explanation for the observed substantial “loss” of the original flowing mass with increasing distance from the vent.     

A dynamical model of lava flows cooling by radiation

The behaviour of a lava flow is reproduced by a two-dimensional model of a Bingham liquid flowing down a uniform slope. Such a liquid is described by two rheological parameters, yield stress and viscosity, both of which are strongly temperature-dependent. Assuming a flow rate and an initial temperature of the liquid at the eruption vent, the temperature decrease due to heat radiation and the consequent change in the rheological parameters are computed along the flow. Both full thermal mixing and thermal unmixing are considered. The equations of motion are solved analytically in the approximation of a slow downslope change of the flow parameters. Flow height and velocity are obtained as functions of the distance from the eruption vent; the time required for a liquid element to reach a certain distance from the vent is also computed. The gross features of observed lava flows are reproduced by the model which allows us to estimate the sensitivity of flow dynamics to changes in the initial conditions, ground slope and rheological parameters. A pronounced increase in the rate of height increase and velocity decrease is found when the flow enters the Bingham regime. The results confirm the observation according to which lava flows show an initial rapid advance, followed by a marked deceleration, while the final length of a flow is such that the Graetz number is in the order of a few hundreds.     

Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The long-term growth of volcanic edifices: numerical modelling of the role of dyke intrusion and lava-flow emplacement

The contribution of intrusive complexes to volcano growth is attested by field observations and by the monitoring of active volcanoes. We used numerical simulations to quantitatively estimate the relative contributions to volcano growth of elastic dislocations related to dyke intrusions and of the accumulation of lava flows. The ground uplift induced by dyke intrusions was calculated with the equations of Okada (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75 (1985) 1135). The spreading of lava flows was simulated as the flow of a Bingham fluid.With realistic parameters for dyke statistics and lava-flow rheology we find the contribution of dyke intrusions to the growth of a basaltic shield archetype to be about 13% in terms of volume and 30% in terms of height. The result is strongly dependent on the proportion of dykes reaching the surface to feed a lava flow. Systematic testing of the model indicates that edifices tend to be high and steep if dykes are thick and high, issued from a small and shallow magma chamber, and if they feed lava flows of high yield strength.The simulation was applied to Ko'olau (O'ahu Is., Hawai'i) and Piton de la Fournaise (Réunion Is.) volcanoes. The simulation of Ko'olau with dyke parameters as described by Walker (Geology, 14 (1986) 310; U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 1350 (1987) 961) and with lava-flow characteristics collected at Kilauea volcano (Hawai'i Is.) results in an edifice morphology very close to that of the real volcano. The best fit model of the Piton de la Fournaise central cone, with its steep slope and E–W elongation, is obtained by the intrusion of 10 000 short and thick dykes issued from a very small and shallow magma chamber and feeding only 700 low-volume lava flows. The same method may be applied to the growth of basaltic shields and other volcano types in different environments, including non-terrestrial volcanism.     

Validation of hydrological models for climate scenario simulation: the case of Saguenay watershed in Quebec

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the problems associated with using downscaled meteorological data for hydrological simulations of climate scenarios. The influence of both the hydrological models and the meteorological inputs driving these models on climate scenario simulation studies are investigated. A regression‐based statistical tool (SDSM) is used to downscale the daily precipitation and temperature data based on climate predictors derived from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM1), and two types of hydrological model, namely the physically based watershed model WatFlood and the lumped‐conceptual modelling system HBV‐96, are used to simulate the flow regimes in the major rivers of the Saguenay watershed in Quebec. The models are validated with meteorological inputs from both the historical records and the statistically downscaled outputs. Although the two hydrological models demonstrated satisfactory performances in simulating stream flows in most of the rivers when provided with historic precipitation and temperature records, both performed less well and responded differently when provided with downscaled precipitation and temperature data. By demonstrating the problems in accurately simulating river flows based on downscaled data for the current climate, we discuss the difficulties associated with downscaling and hydrological models used in estimating the possible hydrological impact of climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eruption rate, area, and length relationships for some Hawaiian lava flows

Volcanic geomorphologists have investigated various relationships between eruption rate and morphologic parameters of lava flows, particularly with regard to preferred statistical correlations and the conditions under which they are valid. Here we employ two simple models for lava flow heat loss by Stefan-Boltzmann radiation to derive eruption rate versus planimetric area relationships. Both of these models predict a linear relationship between eruption rate and planimetric area, modulated by distinct prefactors potentially sensitive to compositional and temperature differences among different flows. Regardless of any theoretical considerations, we show that eruption rate is highly correlated with planimetric area for the Hawaiian basaltic flows analyzed in this work. Moreover, this observed correlation is superior to those from other obvious combinations of eruption rate and flow dimensions. On the basis of the theoretical models for lava flow heat loss, the correlations obtained here suggest that the surfaces of Hawaiian flows radiate at an effective temperature much less than the inner parts of the flowing lava in agreement with numerous field observations. This work also indicates that eruption rate versus planimetric area correlations can be markedly degraded when data from different vents, volcanoes and epochs are combined. These previously unrecognized sensitivities identified by the thermal loss modeling may have contributed to past unresolved debates on relationships between eruption rates and morphologic dimensions.     

The initial cooling of pahoehoe flow lobes

 In this paper we describe a new thermal model for the initial cooling of pahoehoe lava flows. The accurate modeling of this initial cooling is important for understanding the formation of the distinctive surface textures on pahoehoe lava flows as well as being the first step in modeling such key pahoehoe emplacement processes as lava flow inflation and lava tube formation. This model is constructed from the physical phenomena observed to control the initial cooling of pahoehoe flows and is not an empirical fit to field data. We find that the only significant processes are (a) heat loss by thermal radiation, (b) heat loss by atmospheric convection, (c) heat transport within the flow by conduction with temperature and porosity-dependent thermal properties, and (d) the release of latent heat during crystallization. The numerical model is better able to reproduce field measurements made in Hawai'i between 1989 and 1993 than other published thermal models. By adjusting one parameter at a time, the effect of each of the input parameters on the cooling rate was determined. We show that: (a) the surfaces of porous flows cool more quickly than the surfaces of dense flows, (b) the surface cooling is very sensitive to the efficiency of atmospheric convective cooling, and (c) changes in the glass forming tendency of the lava may have observable petrographic and thermal signatures. These model results provide a quantitative explanation for the recently observed relationship between the surface cooling rate of pahoehoe lobes and the porosity of those lobes (Jones 1992, 1993). The predicted sensitivity of cooling to atmospheric convection suggests a simple field experiment for verification, and the model provides a tool to begin studies of the dynamic crystallization of real lavas. Future versions of the model can also be made applicable to extraterrestrial, submarine, silicic, and pyroclastic flows. Received: 26 November 1994 / Accepted: 1 December 1995     

Downslope flow models of a Bingham liquid: Implications for lava flows

It is widely recognized that lavas behave as Bingham liquids, which are characterized by a yield stress σ and a plastic viscosity η. We consider two models describing downslope flows of a Bingham liquid with different aspect ratios A (= flow height/flow width): model 1 with A 1 and model 2 with A ≈ 1. Sufficiently uphill with respect to the front, such flows can be considered as laminar and locally isothermal. For both models, we obtain analytically the steady-state solution of the Navier-Stokes equations and the constitutive equation for a Bingham liquid. We study the flow height and velocity as functions of flow rate, rheological parameters and ground slope. It is found that such flows remain in the Newtonian regime at low yield stresses (σ 10³dyne/cm²), but the transition to the Bingham regime also depends on flow rate and occurs at higher values of σ for higher flow rates: for instance, a high aspect ratio flow (model 2) is still very close to the Newtonian regime at σ = 10⁴ dyne/cm², if the flow rate is greater than 10⁵ g/s. In the Bingham regime, flow heights are generally greater and flow velocities are smaller than in the Newtonian regime; moreover, flow heights are independent of flow rate, so that a change in flow rate results exclusively in a velocity change. After assuming a specific temperature dependence of σ and η between the solidus and the liquidus temperatures of an ideal Bingham liquid (1000°C and 1200 °C respectively), flow heights and velocities are examined as functions of temperature along the flow. Several effects observed in lava flows are predicted by these models and allow a more quantitative insight into the behaviour of lava flows.     

The effect of crystallization on the rheology and dynamics of lava flows

The dynamics of a lava flow is studied by a two-dimensional model describing a viscous fluid with Bingham rheology, flowing down a slope. The temperature in the flow is calculated assuming that heat is transferred through the plug by conduction and is lost by radiation to the atmosphere at the top of the flow. Taken into account is that the increasing crystallization takes place in the flow as a consequence of cooling. The lava viscosity and yield stress are expressed as a function of crystallization degree as well as of temperature: in particular it is assumed that yield stress reaches a maximum value above the solidus temperature, according to experimental data. Dynamical variables, such as velocity and thickness of the flow, are calculated for different values of the maximum crystallization degree and the flow rate. The model shows how the lava flow dynamics is affected by cooling and crystallization. The cooling of the flow is controlled by the increase of yield stress, which produces a thicker plug and makes the heat loss slower. The increasing crystallization has two opposing effects on viscosity: it produces an increase of viscosity, but at the same time produces an increase of yield stress and hence reduces the heat loss and keeps the internal temperature high. As a consequence, lava flows are significantly affected by the dependence of yield stress on temperature and scarcely by the maximum crystallization degree.     

Dynamics of lava flow fronts, Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica

Arenal Volcano has effused basaltic andesite lava flows nearly continuously since September, 1968. The two different kinds of material in flows, lava and lava debris, have different rheologic properties and dynamic behavior. Flow morphology depends on the relationship between the amount and distribution of the lava and the debris, and to a lesser extent the ground morphology.Two main units characterize the flows: the channel zone and the frontal zone. The channel zone consists of two different units, the levées and the channel proper. A velocity profile in the channel shows a maximum value at the plug where the rate of shear is zero, and a velocity gradient increasing outward until, at the levées, the velocity becomes zero. Cooling produces a marked temperature gradient in the flow, leading to the formation of debris by brittle fracture when a critical value of shear rate to viscosity is reached. When the lava supply ceases, much of this debris and part of the lava is left behind after the flow nucleus drains out, forming a collapsed channel.Processes at the frontal zone include levée formation, debris formation, the change in shape of the front, and the choice of the flow path. These processes are controlled primarily by the rheological properties of the lava.Frontal zone dynamics can be understood by fixing the flow front as the point of reference. The lava flows through the channel into the front where it flows out into the levées, thereby increasing the length of the channel and permitting the front to advance. The front shows a relationship of critical height to the yield strength (τ₀) surface tension, and slope; its continued movement is activated by the pressure of the advancing lava in the channel behind. For an ideal flow (isothermal, homogeneous, and isotropic) the ratio of the section of channel proper to the section of levées is calculated and the distance the front will have moved at any time t_x can be determined once the amount of lava available to the front is known. Assuming that the velocity function of the front {G(t)} during the collapsing stage is proportional to the entrance pressure of the lava at the channel-front boundary, an exponential decrease of velocity through time is predicted, which shows good agreement with actual frontal velocity measurements taken on two flows. Local variations in slope have a secondary effect on frontal velocities.Under conditions of constant volume the frontal zone can be considered as a machine that consumes energy brought in by the lava to perform work (front advancement). While the front will use its potential energy to run the process, the velocity at which it occurs is controlled by the activation energy that enters the system as the kinetic energy of the lava flowing into the front. A relation for the energy contribution due to frontal acceleration is also derived. Finally the entrance pressure, that permits the front to deform, is calculated. Its small value confirms that the lava behaves very much like a Bingham plastic.     

Multispectral thermal infrared mapping of the 1 October 1988 Kupaianaha flow field,Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

Multispectral thermal infrared radiance measurements of the Kupaianaha flow field were acquired with the NASA airborne Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) on the morning of 1 October 1988. The TIMS data were used to map both the temperature and emissivity of the surface of the flow field. The temperature map depicted the underground storage and transport of lava. The presence of molten lava in a tube or tumulus resulted in surface temperatures that were at least 10° C above ambient. The temperature map also clearly defined the boundaries of hydrothermal plumes which resulted from the entry of lava into the ocean. The emissivity map revealed the boundaries between individual flow units within the Kupaianaha field. In general, the emissivity of the flows varied systematically with age but the relationship between age and emissivity was not unique. Distinct spectral anomalies, indicative of silica-rich surface materials, were mapped near fumaroles and ocean entry sites. This apparent enrichment in silica may have resulted from an acid-induced leaching of cations from the surfaces of glassy flows. Such incipient alteration may have been the cause for virtually all of the emissivity variations observed on the flow field, the spectral anomalies representing areas where the acid attack was most intense.     

The morphology and evolution of the Stromboli 2002–2003 lava flow field: an example of a basaltic flow field emplaced on a steep slope

The use of a hand-held thermal camera during the 2002–2003 Stromboli effusive eruption proved essential in tracking the development of flow field structures and in measuring related eruption parameters, such as the number of active vents and flow lengths. The steep underlying slope on which the flow field was emplaced resulted in a characteristic flow field morphology. This comprised a proximal shield, where flow stacking and inflation caused piling up of lava on the relatively flat ground of the vent zone, that fed a medial–distal lava flow field. This zone was characterized by the formation of lava tubes and tumuli forming a complex network of tumuli and flows linked by tubes. Most of the flow field was emplaced on extremely steep slopes and this had two effects. It caused flows to slide, as well as flow, and flow fronts to fail frequently, persistent flow front crumbling resulted in the production of an extensive debris field. Channel-fed flows were also characterized by development of excavated debris levees in this zone (Calvari et al. 2005). Collapse of lava flow fronts and inflation of the upper proximal lava shield made volume calculation very difficult. Comparison of the final field volume with that expecta by integrating the lava effusion rates through time suggests a loss of ~70% erupted lava by flow front crumbling and accumulation as debris flows below sea level. Derived relationships between effusion rate, flow length, and number of active vents showed systematic and correlated variations with time where spreading of volume between numerous flows caused an otherwise good correlation between effusion rate, flow length to break down. Observations collected during this eruption are useful in helping to understand lava flow processes on steep slopes, as well as in interpreting old lava–debris sequences found in other steep-sided volcanoes subject to effusive activity.     

A review of lava flow processes related to the formation of lunar sinuous rilles

This paper reviews processes which, it is argued, occurred in lunar lava flows and were involved in the formation of lunar sinuous rilles.The development of ideas relating to rille formation is described and evidence which suggests that they are products of lava effusions is outlined.An analytical lava flow model is described which relates the shapes of lava flows to conditions at the commencement of the flows. An essential part of the model is its use of the yield strength of lava as a parameter. It is shown that the model predicts the occurrence of the channel/levee morphology of lava flows.It is argued that the channels of large flows were deepened by melting. Heat transfer processes within lava flows are discussed and analysed and it is shown that a prolonged period of flow is required before melting of the substrate begins. Estimates are given of initial heating periods and subsequent melting rates.The possibility of the occurrence of turbulent lava flow is discussed. Application of the flow model to sinuous rilles and flows in Mare Imbrium shows that both types of feature could be the remnants of similar effusive events in which the flow could have become turbulent. Turbulent flow is shown to promote erosive melting and it is suggested that the sinuous rilles were cut by the flows which became turbulent.A process of rille formation is described which is consistent with the foregoing arguments and with observations made at Hadley Rille. It is concluded that rilles were formed by the rapid effusion of large volumes of low yield strength lavas.Paper presented at the Symposium Volcanoes of the Earth and Planets, held at the University of Lancaster, March 17, 1981.     

Post-emplacement tilting of lava flows inferred from magnetic fabric study: the example of Oligocene lavas in the Jeanne d’Arc Peninsula (Kerguelen Islands)

Statistical analysis of the magnetic fabric of samples from several successive lava flows emplaced under similar conditions can allow determination of the mean flow direction when magnetic fabric data from individual flows do not lead to reliable results. A difference between the obtained flow direction and the present dip direction indicates that the flows were tilted after emplacement. For 2 successive series of flows on the Jeanne d’Arc Peninsula presently NNW dipping, this method shows lava emplacement along a SSW–NNE direction. This indicates a gentle tilting acquired during a period of weak deformation in the whole archipelago. Additionally, the magnetic fabric data allow the reconstruction of the different conditions of emplacement of these two series of lava flows and of formation of the local thick conglomerate interbedded between these series.     

Viscous Newtonian laminar flow in a rectangular channel: application to Etna lava flows

 We introduce a 3D model for near-vent channelized lava flows. We assume the lava to be an isothermal Newtonian liquid flowing in a rectangular channel down a constant slope. The flow velocity is calculated with an analytical steady-state solution of the Navier-Stokes equation. The surface velocity and the flow rate are calculated as functions of the flow thickness for different flow widths, and the results are compared with those of a 2D model. For typical Etna lava flow parameters, the influence of levees on the flow dynamics is significant when the flow width is less than 25 m. The model predicts the volume flow rate corresponding to the surface velocity, taking into account that both depend on flow thickness. The effusion rate is a critical parameter to evaluate lava flow hazard. We propose a model to calculate the effusion rate given the lava flow width, the topograhic slope, the lava density, the surface flow velocity, and either the lava viscosity or the flow thickness. Received: 20 January 1998 / Accepted: 8 January 1999     

Rootless shield and perched lava pond collapses at Kīlauea Volcano,Hawai'i

Effusion rate is a primary measurement used to judge the expected advance rate, length, and hazard potential of lava flows. At basaltic volcanoes, the rapid draining of lava stored in rootless shields and perched ponds can produce lava flows with much higher local effusion rates and advance velocities than would be expected based on the effusion rate at the vent. For several months in 2007–2008, lava stored in a series of perched ponds and rootless shields on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, was released episodically to produce fast-moving 'a'ā lava flows. Several of these lava flows approached Royal Gardens subdivision and threatened the safety of remaining residents. Using time-lapse image measurements, we show that the initial time-averaged discharge rate for one collapse-triggered lava flow was approximately eight times greater than the effusion rate at the vent. Though short-lived, the collapse-triggered 'a'ā lava flows had average advance rates approximately 45 times greater than that of the pāhoehoe flow field from which they were sourced. The high advance rates of the collapse-triggered lava flows demonstrates that recognition of lava accumulating in ponds and shields, which may be stored in a cryptic manner, is vital for accurately assessing short-term hazards at basaltic volcanoes.